Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?

[WhenWillItEnd66]

2 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Why are you piling all these cliches on me?   Go rain somewhere else.  Depth, talent, young team, step up, everyone has injuries, everyone else is blah blah, rise to the occasion, fall flat,  blah blah blah … nothing new here.  You forgot grit, that’s a common refrain that you missed.  
 

Vent to the board if you must, nothing you said here is original or relates to my post.  

😭

[WhenWillItEnd66]

2 hours ago, Weave said:

We are missing our #1 RW, #2 D, #6 D, our #1 D is hobbled.  No team can be expected to beat nearly equal or better teams missing so much top of the order talent.  

Ok, i forgot the "we are not allowed nice things in Buffalo" LOL I do agree. Funny, we get to the highest pinnacle of being able to actually make the playoffs, then they all forget to drink their milk and our better players drop like flies. It's not like Goaloffson gets hurt (Not that i want anyone hurt) but the key cogs

[Thorner]

Just now, Stormcloudmember66 said:

Ok, i forgot the "we are not allowed nice things in Buffalo" LOL I do agree. Funny, we get to the highest pinnacle of being able to actually make the playoffs, then they all forget to drink their milk and our better players drop like flies. It's not like Goaloffson gets hurt (Not that i want anyone hurt) but the key cogs

Samuelsson seems to get banged up not uncommonly, this falls under “expected issues” and things we need to plan for in advance. Which means it comes back to defensive depth. It’s not really unfortunate timing when it’s not the first time this season or even the second. 

Dahlin is interesting to follow b/c it could be a realistic result of the amount we’ve leaned on him for 75% of a season so far. I just hope he’s not fighting through TOO much pain and hopefully even heals up a little down the stretch 

[WhenWillItEnd66]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Samuelsson seems to get banged up not uncommonly, this falls under “expected issues” and things we need to plan for in advance. Which means it comes back to defensive depth. It’s not really unfortunate timing when it’s not the first time this season or even the second. 

Dahlin is interesting to follow b/c it could be a realistic result of the amount we’ve leaned on him for 75% of a season so far. I just hope he’s not fighting through TOO much pain and hopefully even heals up a little down the stretch 

Like i said in another post...... we get physical players to play physical and they do not seem to last long before they are hurt. Definitely agree with the Dahlin comment. Thats why seriously upgrading the bottom pair of defense is definitely needed to take some pressure off of the top 2. Stillman could be that, but ohhhh thats right, he is hurt. 

[Weave]

31 minutes ago, Thorny said:

 

We win 2 in a row, though, the outlook probably looks entirely different.

Its not *close* to over 

Exactly. Still at the stage where a reasonably small or moderate sample size can significantly alter the math 

I don’t agree.  Winning the next two games doesn’t make the outlook entirely different.  *Even if* we win the next two AND NYI, Pit lose their next two, it gets us basically back to where were with 4 fewer games to leap frog. If NYI and Pit win those……

The hill is way steeper than it was 2 games ago. “Entirely different “ is going to require more than 2 wins tied together.

31 minutes ago, Thorny said:

 

We win 2 in a row, though, the outlook probably looks entirely different.

Its not *close* to over 

Exactly. Still at the stage where a reasonably small or moderate sample size can significantly alter the math 

I don’t agree.  Winning the next two games doesn’t make the outlook entirely different.  *Even if* we win the next two AND NYI, Pit lose their next two, it gets us basically back to where were with 4 fewer games to leap frog. If NYI and Pit win those……

The hill is way steeper than it was 2 games ago. “Entirely different “ is going to require more than 2 wins tied together.

[WhenWillItEnd66]

4 minutes ago, Weave said:

I don’t agree.  Winning the next two games doesn’t make the outlook entirely different.  *Even if* we win the next two AND NYI, Pit lose their next two, it gets us basically back to where were with 4 fewer games to leap frog. If NYI and Pit win those……

The hill is way steeper than it was 2 games ago. “Entirely different “ is going to require more than 2 wins tied together.

I don’t agree.  Winning the next two games doesn’t make the outlook entirely different.  *Even if* we win the next two AND NYI, Pit lose their next two, it gets us basically back to where were with 4 fewer games to leap frog. If NYI and Pit win those……

The hill is way steeper than it was 2 games ago. “Entirely different “ is going to require more than 2 wins tied together.

We do still have 2 more games with the Isles, and the Isles play Pitt as well. I am not saying we will, i do believe we are done with the current state of the team (Injuries) but it is possible. There just has not been that consistency to show that they will.

[Weave]

Just now, Stormcloudmember66 said:

We do still have 2 more games with the Isles, and the Isles play Pitt as well. I am not saying we will, i do believe we are done with the current state of the team (Injuries) but it is possible. There just has not been that consistency to show that they will.

I never said it was impossible.  I said the hill got alot steeper.  It’s not impossible until the math says so, but our trend took a downward hit with games running out.

[Night Train]

Starting to look dire.

Not really surprised after folks posted the remaining schedule weeks back. 

Not there yet. Too many holes. Work to do. 

[WhenWillItEnd66]

1 minute ago, Weave said:

I never said it was impossible.  I said the hill got alot steeper.  It’s not impossible until the math says so, but our trend took a downward hit with games running out.

I think i need to start bolding what i am commenting on. LOL I AM agreeing with you. Very steep, because the Sabres are seriously inconsistent. Throw the excuses up in the air for it, but they have been that way all year. 

[Thorner]

24 minutes ago, Weave said:

I don’t agree.  Winning the next two games doesn’t make the outlook entirely different.  *Even if* we win the next two AND NYI, Pit lose their next two, it gets us basically back to where were with 4 fewer games to leap frog. If NYI and Pit win those……

The hill is way steeper than it was 2 games ago. “Entirely different “ is going to require more than 2 wins tied together.

I don’t agree.  Winning the next two games doesn’t make the outlook entirely different.  *Even if* we win the next two AND NYI, Pit lose their next two, it gets us basically back to where were with 4 fewer games to leap frog. If NYI and Pit win those……

The hill is way steeper than it was 2 games ago. “Entirely different “ is going to require more than 2 wins tied together.

Eh, I was referring to the outlook of the fans, more so, the perspective- we’ve seen how it is: if we win 2 in a row, it’s going to be a lot more optimistic. 

You sort of missed my point: there is still a lot of hockey left to play. Nearly a quarter season. My point wasn’t that those two games would single handedly reverse our fortunes: it was about how the perspective would change after those 2 wins: we’d presumably be witnessing a team that’s looking much better (healthier?) than the last couple. Feeling better about what we are seeing them commit to record. My point was about how there’s still plenty of games left to  put together the record we need, the fundamental issue FAR more so is that we see a team CAPABLE of doing that 

that was my point. If we see THAT team these next two, yes, I believe the outlook changes yet again 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Thorny

[Weave]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Eh, I was referring to the outlook of the fans, more so, the perspective- we’ve seen how it is: if we win 2 in a row, it’s going to be a lot more optimistic. 

You sort of missed my point: there is still a lot of hockey left to play. Nearly a quarter season. My point wasn’t that those two games would single handedly reverse our fortunes: it was about how the perspective would change after those 2 wins: we’d presumably be witnessing a team that’s looking much better (healthier?) than the last couple. Feeling better about what we are seeing them commit to record. My point was about how there’s still plenty of games left to  put together the record we need, the fundamental issue FAR more so is that we see a team CAPABLE of doing that 

that was my point. If we see that team these next two, yes, I believe the outlook changes yet again 

Gotcha.

The fans are always going to be fickle.  I’ll grant you fan outlook may change.

I think that reality is our margin for error is minuscule though, and the most likely scenario doesn’t include Buffalo in the playoffs any longer.

[Thorner]

another reason how we are actually playing matters way more is b/c of the games we have in hand: as long as we have those in our back pocket, we technically aren’t relying on anyone. What matters is how we are playing because if we, say, keep pace with the islanders from HERE on in, and win those 3 games, we’re in a spot 

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, Weave said:

Gotcha.

The fans are always going to be fickle.  I’ll grant you fan outlook may change.

I think that reality is our margin for error is minuscule though, and the most likely scenario doesn’t include Buffalo in the playoffs any longer.

It’s definitely not the most likely scenario. But up until recently the math was suggesting we had a better shot than any other ONE team in the race. The field was still more compelling mathematically (and even more so now) but if you had to pick ONE the math was suggesting buffalo while we were in 7th by points %. 

we aren’t very far off from being mathematically in 8th by points % again. It doesn’t mean we make it, because of “the field”, but I’ll do the math here real quick and I think it’s a small combination of Ws and Ls that would have us with the best odds of any one team gunning for 8th 

[Thorner]

Ya I mean if the isles go 0-1-1 and we go 2-0-0, we’ll have mathematically accumulated points at a (very slightly) superior rate to the islanders this season, as we’ll have a .554 points % to their .551. 

It’s still just going to come down to whichever team finishes strong. There’s a few teams so I get the odds aren’t great but as long as it’s simply a matter of “play really (but realistically) well down the stretch and you have a decent shot” it’s not close to over. 
 

Even just give us a .500 mark for the games in hand. We are talking making up a gap of 3 points on the islanders, with two teams tied with us (Florida and Ottawa) over the final 16 games. 3 points in 16 is far from insurmountable, it’s doable, I just need to see the team LOOK really good again. That in the next 2 would be great. Ymmv obviously 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Thorny

[Doohicksie]

Dammit.  I'm back in.  They'll make it; mark my words.

 

[nfreeman]

Well, they've lost 4 out of 5 at the worst possible time.  The lack of mental toughness -- as manifested in a terrible home record and numerous losses to crappy teams in which the Sabres came out flat -- has come home to roost.

It's not over yet but you can see it from here.

Still, I wouldn't be shocked if they ripped off 4 wins in a row and made it close again.

[Believer]

Nope… Will take a healthy roster, exceptional goaltending, a few hot goal scorers, 22+ pts in the 19 games remaining, and some help from other wild card contenders…

This young Sabres team is capable of it… Just do it, boys… Show ‘em…

Edited March 8, 2023 by Believer

[GASabresIUFAN]

16 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Well, they've lost 4 out of 5 at the worst possible time.  The lack of mental toughness -- as manifested in a terrible home record and numerous losses to crappy teams in which the Sabres came out flat -- has come home to roost.

It's not over yet but you can see it from here.

Still, I wouldn't be shocked if they ripped off 4 wins in a row and made it close again.

Losing Tuch, Mule and even Stillman couldn't have come at a worse time.  

Also getting nearly zero production from KO, Z, JJP and VO doesn't help either.

Edited March 8, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Losing Tuch, Mule and even Stillman couldn't have come at a worse time.  

Also getting nearly zero production from KO, Z, JJP and VO doesn't help either.

I'm not disagreeing but I'm going to rephrase this:

A complete lack of depth on this hockey team is killing us down the stretch run. 

 

[Pimlach]

3 hours ago, Weave said:

Gotcha.

The fans are always going to be fickle.  I’ll grant you fan outlook may change.

I think that reality is our margin for error is minuscule though, and the most likely scenario doesn’t include Buffalo in the playoffs any longer.

We have to win 4-5 in a row to get a good shot.  Not impossible, but with our goaltending (which has been ok the last few games), and the injuries, and with this teams inability to turn home ice into an advantage, it will be a real challenge.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

8 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'm not disagreeing but I'm going to rephrase this:

A complete lack of depth on this hockey team is killing us down the stretch run. 

 

it's been that way since opening night.  The 8-game losing streak was primarily caused by losing 3 D to injury.  We don't have enough good people in lower roles who can elevate when injuries occur.  At forward that's going to change and soon.  On defense and in goal, I still don't see the necessary depth and this has been an issue that KA has needed to address for two years and hasn't done the job adequately. 

[Pimlach]

8 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'm not disagreeing but I'm going to rephrase this:

A complete lack of depth on this hockey team is killing us down the stretch run. 

 

Yes, our starting 20 is quite good but extremely young and still about 4-5 players short of a very solid contending roster.   The depth is not there yet.  

It seemed like only yesterday we beat Tampa and played a strong and gritty playoff type game.   The toll after that game was Muel, Stillman, and Jost - we can't cover that with Tuch already out and Dahlin not at 100%.   

[Weave]

51 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'm not disagreeing but I'm going to rephrase this:

A complete lack of depth on this hockey team is killing us down the stretch run. 

 

I’m going to repeat myself, any team losing their #1 RW, #2 D, #6 D, lose their #1 D and have him hobbled for a number of games after is going to struggle mightily again opponents equal to them or better.  Boston or Carolina doesn’t do well i. That scenario either.

Losing under our curee t situation isn’t indicative of lack of depth.  It’s indicative of top tier players all getting hurt at the same time.

[Carmel Corn]

What's possible vs. probable may be two different things.  Possible is absolutely yes, probable suggests maybe no due to strength of upcoming schedule coupled with key injuries.  What is also a factor is some regulars have gone completely "cold" during the last 10 games or more.  

[Wyldnwoody44]

It just sucks because the Isles were without Barzal, I wish we woulda taken advantage of that.