Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?

[Pimlach]

1 minute ago, nfreeman said:

 

Certainly the Deluca .500 concept is rough justice.  @Taro T's approach of needing 1.2 pts per game is more precise. 

I rely on Deluca .500 because (i) it allows you to look at just their record, without checking the standings, to get a sense of where they are, (ii) the loser pts tend to even out over time and (iii) Deluca .500 is a surprisingly accurate barometer despite its shortcomings -- i.e. teams that finish below that line very seldom make the playoffs, and teams that finish above it usually make it and are just about always in the running.

For example, if the Sabres rip off a 4-game winning streak starting tonight, I will offer a Sabrespace guarantee that everyone here will be talking playoffs.

So far, the story of this season is not enough depth at D, followed closely by not enough goaltending once again.  You have to add in that Tage is real, Dahlin has a good shot at the Norris, Cozens is emerging, and the rookies (Power, Quinn, Peterka) all look very good. 

Sure.  Win 4 straight and we will all be talking about a playoff run except for maybe a few here.  

I don't think they are out of it, and they should not play like they are out of it.   I certainly want them to get back to beating the Leaves and to start beating Boston, Tampa and Florida. 

[nfreeman]

They are 3 games under DeLuca .500. If they don’t fall any further, and rip off a 4-game winning streak, they will be solidly in playoff contention.  

[Thorner]

25 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

I used to read this forum in the Deluca era but never joined in.   Never bought into the Deluca .500 stuff.  A tie in regulation is a point, a point is better than a loss.  

The key with being a deluca .500 team isn’t just about your wins being equal to total losses, it’s achieving that feat *while also* ensuring a fair few in the loss column fall into the OT Loss side: as I was pointing out earlier this season - there is generally one anomalific (yes, I invented this word) team, every season, that achieves deluca .500 but falls short of playoffs because too many of the losses are in regulation. 
 

Where deluca .500 generally has value  re: correlation is that the large, large majority of teams reaching the mark DO make the playoffs as losing so few in OT is a relative anomaly - the standings bear that out as generally only 1 or 2 deluca .500 teams miss each year

Would be remiss to not mention - that “one team” is shaping up to very well be us this season 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Thorny

[matter2003]

FWIW, MoneyPuck in depth analytic rankings that take a lot of things into account really likes this team still...they are ranked 9th in the NHL. They are the only team with a losing record to have a + net goal differential, most are like -20 or worse.

 

Also, still ranked 7th in CF% in all situations, 6th in 5 on 5 situations.  Analytically, this is a very good team...far far better than the team last year(low 20s) and the year prior(high 20s). 

Goaltending is killing them...if they could get the goaltending they had when they were tanking this might be one of the best teams in the NHL.

Edited December 7, 2022 by matter2003

[Doohicksie]

3 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

if they could get the goaltending they had when they were tanking

[matter2003]

1 minute ago, Doohickie said:

You don't remember all the hand wringing because they were stealing games for us despite being outplayed and outshot badly and people were freaking out that the goaltending was going to cost us the #1 pick? That was a thing.

Edited December 7, 2022 by matter2003

[GASabresIUFAN]

Nothing has changed in their odds over the last few weeks

[Doohicksie]

I remember losing lots and lots of games.  I remember an occasional game when the opponents peppered the Sabres with shots, most of which were not high danger chances.

[JoeSchmoe]

I voted YES, but then I think about the goaltending and then I feel shame.

[Weave]

I voted no.  They don’t have the goaltending to make up ground.  And I think the playoff push will be a learning opportunity that won’t fruit until the next time they need to push.

[inkman]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

Why do you stay up so late drinking coffee? 

I was under the impression 4:30 was early.  🤔

[K-9]

Arguing the odds of making the playoffs vs. arguing whether they are out of the running for the playoffs are two different arguments. Perhaps we shouldn’t conflate the two.

[inkman]

19 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

You don't remember all the hand wringing because they were stealing games for us despite being outplayed and outshot badly and people were freaking out that the goaltending was going to cost us the #1 pick? That was a thing.

Are you Canadian?  I feel like there is more conflation about what to call the first overall pick in a draft among Canadians but it could be a small sample size of the Canadians that surround the Sabres org. Paul Hamilton screws this up continuously so it’s not just a Canadian thing. 

17 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Arguing the odds of making the playoffs vs. arguing whether they are out of the running for the playoffs are two different arguments. Perhaps we shouldn’t conflate the two.

Tell Pham that 

[Drag0nDan]

3 hours ago, inkman said:

Paul Hamilton has repeatedly mentioned this week on WGR that the Sabres are out of the playoff race due to the losing streak?  Is it even true?  Do they have no realistic chance to make up the ground?  Didn’t the Blues win the cup after being in last place in December?  

Only way they can is if they make up the ground with an equally long winning streak, especially against Eastern conference opponents ahead of them in the standings.  

[inkman]

4 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

Only way they can is if they make up the ground with an equally long winning streak, especially against Eastern conference opponents ahead of them in the standings.  

Hard to imagine the second leading scoring team doing something like that 

[Taro T]

Really expect that at some point they'll get a 5-6 game winning streak.  (Doubt it happens before Comrie comes back, but they're in a stretch of winnable games now, so who knows.)

Expect in general, they'll play NHL 0.500 until Comrie is back & NHL 0.600 after he's back.  With the youth they have expect them to continue to improve throughout the year which should make those predictions low should other teams still look at them as bottom feeders but expect by the end of the month teams will be playing their top net minder against them & they'll be ready to have a tough game (due to speed, not rough stuff) so so those changes will likely offset each other.

They have a great chance to be in the mix for the playoffs.  To get in, is obviously a very tall order w/ the current GTing.  But likely comes down to can they find a 2nd 5-6 game W streak & can they avoid another 5+ game losing streak.  If the answer to both is yes, will say they'll be in the playoffs.  If no to either, then no.  Really expect they've got a good chance of getting that 2nd W streak.  But not convinced they can avoid another losing streak.  As we saw last month, all it takes to go on 1 is have a tough stretch of schedule with a stinker game in the gimme sprinkled inside that stretch.

If they could find a really good PKer that would help too.  The PK is killing them.  (GT is your best PKer.)

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, inkman said:

Paul Hamilton has repeatedly mentioned this week on WGR that the Sabres are out of the playoff race due to the losing streak?  Is it even true?  Do they have no realistic chance to make up the ground?  Didn’t the Blues win the cup after being in last place in December?  

Hamilton hates the team and fans. That's his shtick. 

[LGR4GM]

The Sabres are going to turn the corner in December. Once they finally bench Mitts we'll be almost there. 

[inkman]

37 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The Sabres are going to turn the corner in December. Once they finally bench Mitts we'll be almost there. 

I hope you are right.  I just don’t know if it’ll happen.  

[Curt]

One thing to consider is that I believe the Sabres have one of the easier schedules the rest of the way, in terms of strength of opponents, number of back to backs, and number of opponents who will be on back to backs.

[Buffalonill]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

The Sabres are going to turn the corner in December. Once they finally bench Mitts we'll be almost there. 

How many corners does this team get ? Lol

[Gatorman0519]

The back half of the season would have to be magical. Unless Hellebuyck is suddenly in net for us, I doubt it. 

[matter2003]

15 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

How many corners does this team get ? Lol

There are a lot of them.  The path to success isn't a straight line, it's filled with a lot of twists and turns and dead ends that have to be re-traced.

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, Gatorman0519 said:

The back half of the season would have to be magical. Unless Hellebuyck is suddenly in net for us, I doubt it. 

Pretty much the difference between us and the Jets right now, ya 

[Mb278]

I vote they miss, but I sure would love to be wrong on this one.

Casey and goallesson are useless at 5v5 and we dont have the consistent goaltending nor defensive depth. Not sure we can win with two lines (and one a huge liability to put on the ice). Maybe a year and a move or two away....🤷‍♂️