Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, MattPie said:

Probably did the math wrong, lol. I just posted this over in the GDT: the Sabres have 13 losses left for the season to get to 98, 27 wins. Those move around a little for OTLs. So 4 losses per month, give or take.

No you were right, I just rounded up to 86. I hadn’t got to your correction yet and was too eager beaver- only saw the initial 88 you listed 

[Doohicksie]

 

 

[Gatorman0519]

[bob_sauve28]

How do we look now? 

[Porous Five Hole]

57 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

How do we look now? 

 

[Buffalonill]

1 hour ago, bob_sauve28 said:

How do we look now? 

13% chance 

[nfreeman]

Even with that gross 5-out-of-6 losing streak, they are still at Deluca .500.  If they can rip off 3 or 4 wins in a row, they will be very much on the bubble.  But they can't have another 6-game stretch like that one we just cleared.

It's there for them if they can play hard every night.  And BTW, they are getting pretty good goaltending from UPL.

[dudacek]

2 points back of the Islanders, 4 of PIttsburgh, 7 of Washington.

Despite our recent slumping over the past 10, we’ve still gained 4 on the Islanders and 2 on the Penguins, while keeping pace with Washington.

Going to need to string together another run at some point.

Edited January 22, 2023 by dudacek

[bob_sauve28]

Tough stretch coming up, though 

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Tough stretch coming up, though 

The next 4 are all mid level teams but are tough to play against. They are however, the games you need to win to have a shot at the playoffs. 2-2 isn't good enough at this stage. 

[JohnC]

53 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

The next 4 are all mid level teams but are tough to play against. They are however, the games you need to win to have a shot at the playoffs. 2-2 isn't good enough at this stage. 

On this road trip if they come away with a 2-2 record I'll be moderately pleased. Would I like more? Of course. 

[nfreeman]

So, they are 1 over Deluca .500 and about to start a 4-game roadie:

Dallas

STL

Winnipeg

Minnesota

0-4 or 1-3 and the Sabres have a big problem.

2-2 isn't a disaster but it is a missed opportunity

3-1 gets them very close to a playoff spot

4-0 and a bunch of us are going to make some ridiculous predictions.

BTW, the Sabres have been much better on the road this season than at home.  And they are getting decent-to-good goaltending now.  And I think Comrie is going to start bringing it too.

[GASabresIUFAN]

What about 2-1-1?

[7+6=13]

23 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What about 2-1-1?

Not a big fan of that style of defense. 

[DarthEbriate]

14 hours ago, nfreeman said:

So, they are 1 over Deluca .500 and about to start a 4-game roadie:

2-2 isn't a disaster but it is a missed opportunity

Throw in home v. Carolina before the All-Star break and anything 3-2 or better is a good run through a tough gauntlet.

The good news this last week is that the main competition is scuffling. PIT and NYI are treading water the past couple weeks and WSH got blasted in Vegas with Ovechkin out of the lineup (it didn't matter that Tom Wilson and Nickulas Backstrom had returned to the lineup). The hot teams right now are Florida and Philadelphia and the hope is that they revert to their inconsistencies while the Sabres win their games-in-hand over them.

[Doohicksie]

Back up to 30.8%

 

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Back up to 30.8%

 

So, Anaheim's and Chicago's odds are so low they don't even get on the chart?

That blown point is frustrating.  But not a killer.

 

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

So, Anaheim's and Chicago's odds are so low they don't even get on the chart?

That blown point is frustrating.  But not a killer.

 

During that ignominious losing streak if we could have come away with a couple to three losing points our position would look so much better. 

[dudacek]

The team that might deserve some more attention is Florida.

Pretty sure that’s a team very few expected the Sabres to be ahead of come year-end.

I think the Rangers are pretty safe. I can see Washington or PIttsburgh holding or fading and I think the Islanders aren’t good but have hope with Sorokin, but I can very much see the Panthers going on a run as well.

Five teams for 2 spots in my mind.

[GASabresIUFAN]

It’s amazing how much these models vary in their results (Computer models for teams making the playoffs).

I looked at 4 sources, moneypuck, the athletic, 538, and Hockey-reference.  Results list in that order. All have been updated within the last two days.

NYR - 60.6, 70, 87, 80.1

Pitt - 53.9, 88, 72, 70.9

Wash - 78, 55, 61, 61.7

Fla - 52.4, 68, 43, 26.6

Buff - 30.8, 4, 16, 33

NYI - 17.2, 16, 24, 23.2

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[matter2003]

5 points back of Pittsburgh with a game in hand...they are squarely in the race.

[tom webster]

14 hours ago, dudacek said:

The team that might deserve some more attention is Florida.

Pretty sure that’s a team very few expected the Sabres to be ahead of come year-end.

I think the Rangers are pretty safe. I can see Washington or PIttsburgh holding or fading and I think the Islanders aren’t good but have hope with Sorokin, but I can very much see the Panthers going on a run as well.

Five teams for 2 spots in my mind.

I’ve been thinking this for awhile. In my mind, it’s 4 teams, for 1 spot. I just can’t imagine Florida not being in.

I do believe the Sabres can beat the other 4.

Only slightly off topic, can you imagine Pittsburgh missing the playoffs and then not unlike the Crosby draft, miraculously winning the lottery and getting Connor!? 

[Porous Five Hole]

25 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I’ve been thinking this for awhile. In my mind, it’s 4 teams, for 1 spot. I just can’t imagine Florida not being in.

I do believe the Sabres can beat the other 4.

Only slightly off topic, can you imagine Pittsburgh missing the playoffs and then not unlike the Crosby draft, miraculously winning the lottery and getting Connor!? 

A team can only jump ten spots, so the Pens would really have to fall off a cliff from here for that to happen. 

[tom webster]

10 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

A team can only jump ten spots, so the Pens would really have to fall off a cliff from here for that to happen. 

I keep forgetting that part of the rules, thanks.

[Doohicksie]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

5 points back of Pittsburgh with a game in hand...they are squarely in the race.

7 points behind Washington with 4 games in hand.  If all teams win their games in hand, Buffalo is still behind Pittsburgh but passes Washington, Florida and NYI.

With their games in hand they're likely to pass FLA and NYI and are basically neck-and-neck with the Caps.  And the Sabres are marginally better over the last 10 games compared to Pitt and Wash.