Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?

[Doohicksie]

If all teams win their games in hand:

Washington:  No. of points:  50
Games in hand:  0
Points with GIH wins:  50

NYI:  No. of points:  46
GIH:  1
Points with GIH wins:  48

Pitt:  No. of points:  44
GIH:  4
Points with GIH wins:  52

Buffalo:  No. of points:  42
GIH:  5
Points with GIH wins:  52

I get it:  You can't assume a team will win its games in hand.  But... Washington and NYI have already "banked" there losses.  Every WC team above the Sabres is on a losing streak.  Their points over the last 10 games are:

Wash:  16
NYI:  11
Pitt:  8 (!)
Buffalo:  16

So I guess I'm just saying that if you look at the games in hand coupled with the recent trends, Buffalo is looking pretty good to pass NYI and at least one of Wash and Pitt, and quite possibly by the end of January.  I would also point out that Buffalo has been beating very good teams lately... teams ahead of them in the standings.  They laid an egg in Ottawa but other than that, they are trending sharply up against quality teams while NYI and Pitt are at about NHL .500, and they have games in hand over Wash.

[matter2003]

10 hours ago, Doohickie said:

If all teams win their games in hand:

Washington:  No. of points:  50
Games in hand:  0
Points with GIH wins:  50

NYI:  No. of points:  46
GIH:  1
Points with GIH wins:  48

Pitt:  No. of points:  44
GIH:  4
Points with GIH wins:  52

Buffalo:  No. of points:  42
GIH:  5
Points with GIH wins:  52

I get it:  You can't assume a team will win its games in hand.  But... Washington and NYI have already "banked" there losses.  Every WC team above the Sabres is on a losing streak.  Their points over the last 10 games are:

Wash:  16
NYI:  11
Pitt:  8 (!)
Buffalo:  16

So I guess I'm just saying that if you look at the games in hand coupled with the recent trends, Buffalo is looking pretty good to pass NYI and at least one of Wash and Pitt, and quite possibly by the end of January.  I would also point out that Buffalo has been beating very good teams lately... teams ahead of them in the standings.  They laid an egg in Ottawa but other than that, they are trending sharply up against quality teams while NYI and Pitt are at about NHL .500, and they have games in hand over Wash.

Sabres are on a tear and the best part about it is they are so offensively gifted they can simply outscore teams at times...

Would like to see them a little better with leads heading into the 3rd but that type of stuff comes with experience. Bottom line is they are coming from behind at times to tie games and then win in OT, and they have also shown they can put teams away in regulation too. 

[MattPie]

I thought it unlikely, but the Sabres are actually in striking distance of a wildcard spot. They can "catch" Washington if they win their games in hand as well was maintain the 7-2-1-ish pace they've been on. That's no small thing, winning 5 games over a 0.600 pace. (for 40 games, that looks like 27-16-2 or something), and assuming the other teams don't surge. Standings-watching here is kinda silly, even if it's fun; it doesn't matter where we stand now relative to other teams, because all it takes is 2 of the 6 teams in the neighborhood to surge and the Sabres would need even more wins to find a spot.

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, MattPie said:

I thought it unlikely, but the Sabres are actually in striking distance of a wildcard spot. They can "catch" Washington if they win their games in hand as well was maintain the 7-2-1-ish pace they've been on. That's no small thing, winning 5 games over a 0.600 pace. (for 40 games, that looks like 27-16-2 or something), and assuming the other teams don't surge. Standings-watching here is kinda silly, even if it's fun; it doesn't matter where we stand now relative to other teams, because all it takes is 2 of the 6 teams in the neighborhood to surge and the Sabres would need even more wins to find a spot.

At the end of the day, the NHL 0.600 is the key.

If they get & stay there and subsequently miss the playoffs, they will be the ONLY team to have done so in over 50 years and only the 2nd ever in the modern era.

Winning their next 3 puts them on pace.  After that, take 6 points or better every 5 games (3-2-0 or 2-1-2 is all they need then) and they nearly definitely will make the playoffs.  Play better than that & start building a cushion for the nearly inevitable losing streak they suffer at some point down the stretch.

Yeah, it's fun to scoreboard watch when the point total is rising.  And, yeah, it's kind of silly at this point, but it's fun.  And as long as they continue to beat their own demons & get 6+ every 5, it should bear fruit as well regardless of what their rivals do.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Still no.

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Still no.

Hey, we don't need this constant negativity from you!

 

 

😉

[DarthEbriate]

The Sabres are 17-5-2 with Muel in the lineup. Muel-Pace is 1.5 points per game. That's better than every team in the league... except for Boston (which is having the most dominant season since the division names changed from surnames to regions [and metros... which I guess is an adjective]).

[Sabres Fan in NS]

6 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Hey, we don't need this constant negativity from you!

 

 

😉

Dude !!

In this case just saying no is the most positive thing to say, eh.

[Stoner]

4 hours ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Still no.

It was always no.

[Gatorman0519]

This is the latest in the year we can still have this conversation in January. Usually by Christmas it’s well over. Progress! Lol 

[PerreaultForever]

Next 3 games are all against heavy styled teams that will make life difficult (assuming they are on their game). If we lose them all it's definitely over. 

[mjd1001]

Not out yet, but a step back the past couple days.  Last week I was feeling 45% chance of making it, now I feel it is more like 30%.

[MattPie]

3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Not out yet, but a step back the past couple days.  Last week I was feeling 45% chance of making it, now I feel it is more like 30%.

Just by the numbers, they need to run the next 3 just to make up the 2 losses, then need to win at least  8 over the 10 after that to gain any ground.

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, MattPie said:

Just by the numbers, they need to run the next 3 just to make up the 2 losses, then need to win at least  8 over the 10 after that to gain any ground.

Win the next one vs the Jets & the current 5 game block is right where it needs to be (3-2-0).  But they'll still need to find 4 extra points above 3-2-0 every 5 games over the last 42 games (8 - 5 game segments plus 2 extra games at the end) to get back to a playoff pace.  

Tough, but way more doable a task than they were looking at a month ago.

[Gatorman0519]

Still possible but until our goals against suddenly and rapidly goes down, no realistic chance. This team doesn’t defend or keep the puck out if the net we’ll even though we can score. 

[MattPie]

On 1/14/2023 at 2:07 PM, Gatorman0519 said:

Still possible but until our goals against suddenly and rapidly goes down, no realistic chance. This team doesn’t defend or keep the puck out if the net we’ll even though we can score. 

Those three losses will make it really hard, again. I only watch the 10-minute highlights, and it's noticeable in the last week or two that not every play showin is the Sabres scoring. , It seemed like that for those few weeks where they were shelling everyone; the Sabres were burying their chances.

[nucci]

aren't we 5 points out of a playoff spot with 40 games left?  Probably still a chance

[MattPie]

20 minutes ago, nucci said:

aren't we 5 points out of a playoff spot with 40 games left?  Probably still a chance

Yes, a chance. But it won't be as easy as it seems. There are three teams ahead of the Sabres in the Wildcard race. If the Islanders stay on their current pace, they'll end up around 92 points. But I wouldn't bet on that. After the trade deadline, the hungry teams will be playing hard and there will be more sellers just playing out the season. Even if the Islanders falter or maintain, Pittsburgh is right behind them. The Sabres are currently on pace for 88 points even with the magical run they were on the last month or two. They have to play at least that well for the rest of the season. They've shown it's possible, had they even gone 2-2-1 in the last 5 I'd believe it, but those 3 losses almost have to be the last falter for the rest of the season. The Sabres need to win the remaining games in hand and get back to those 7-3-1 10-game segments.

[Taro T]

38 minutes ago, nucci said:

aren't we 5 points out of a playoff spot with 40 games left?  Probably still a chance

41.

[nucci]

3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

41.

even better

[Sabres Fan in NS]

6 hours ago, nucci said:

even better

Not really.  They lost today so down to 40 games and ...

[Stoner]

They're still on a 98 point pace. Or so I heard.

[MattPie]

3 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

They're still on a 98 point pace. Or so I heard.

0.524 * 82 * 2 == 85 point pace now.

Edited January 16, 2023 by MattPie

[Crusader1969]

Would be interesting to start the poll today 

I think they are still alive but it’s a long shot

1 spot available for 5/6 teams chasing it 

[MattPie]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Pacing for 86, actually 

Probably did the math wrong, lol. I just posted this over in the GDT: the Sabres have 13 losses left for the season to get to 98, 27 wins. Those move around a little for OTLs. So 4 losses per month, give or take.