Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?

[inkman]

Paul Hamilton has repeatedly mentioned this week on WGR that the Sabres are out of the playoff race due to the losing streak?  Is it even true?  Do they have no realistic chance to make up the ground?  Didn’t the Blues win the cup after being in last place in December?  

[Thorner]

While not mathematically eliminated, by any stretch of the imagination, it would be a significantly uphill battle at this point given it doesn’t appear to be their focus: which I’d guess would be a requirement for achieving a goal that challenging.

[tom webster]

I understand it isn’t likely but if they beat Columbus and sweep Pittsburgh in regulation they will be three points behind Pittsburgh with same number of games played. I don’t know how you can declare them out at this point of the season.

[mjd1001]

I voted yes because they are so far behind now (even though it is early) but I think the odds of them making it are actually better than most outsiders think.  Barring any major injuries, I expect this team to be a borderline top 10 team the rest of the year.  With that said, being a 'top 10' team the rest of the year probably still keeps them a few points out of the playoffs, so if I had to bet, I'd say they don't make it (but I think it will be close)

[mjd1001]

29 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I understand it isn’t likely but if they beat Columbus and sweep Pittsburgh in regulation they will be three points behind Pittsburgh with same number of games played. I don’t know how you can declare them out at this point of the season.

Becuase there are a lot of variables in there.  First, it is a big 'if' they win the next 3. It is possible, but from a pure statisticaly point of view, the odds of them getting  6 points in the next 3 games are less than 20% (purely statistcal). Then even if they do that, you are also talking about all the other teams that are fighting for the wild card that are ahead of the Sabres...You would still be behind or tied with the Islanders, Tampa, Rangers...providing they lost all their games...and you have to jump over Florida, Montreal, and Washington too.  

So even if the Sabres win the next 3, a big if...they are still be behind Pittsburgh...and likely behind 3-6 other teams for the wildcard. The teams above them in the next 5 days will not lose all their games because some of them are playing each other, guaranteeing that some of them will get at least some points.

The finish line is what you need to look at.  95-96 points is genrally what you need to make the playoffs (sometimes a few more, sometimes a few less) but get to a 95 point pace and then worry about the specifics in the last couple weeks of the year. Right now the Sabres are on about a 75 point pace. To get to 95 points, they have to start playing like a 104 point team the rest of the way.

Personally, I think this team has the potential to play as a 95-100 point team the rest of the way. It requires no major injuries and continued development, but I want to hope for that.  However, even if they do that, that only gets them to the 89-92 point total for the season.

Edited December 7, 2022 by mjd1001

[Doohicksie]

The other variable to mention is injuries especially with respect to other teams.  We don't know who's going to suddenly drop out of the race.

On the other hand I think the Sabres will continue to "figure it out" and steadily improve.  They've got scoring lines that are clicking, the foundation of a solid "fourth line" in Okie and Gus and whoever you put between them.  If the third line either figures it out or Donny swaps out players and settles on something that works, the entire forward corps will be fleshed out.

The defense has two solid pairings and a meh pairing.  As long as the meh pairing doesn't hurt us too much the D is okay.

Goaltending could go either way.  UPL will either get it or reveal himself to be a career AHLer.  Comrie could come back from injury with improved perspective.  Or not.

As much as I'd like to see them make the playoffs it may take another season for these issues to resolve.  But Moneypuck still has them as a slightly better than even chance to make the playoffs.  They don't have a rooting interest, they're just looking at the numbers.

[Brawndo]

Moneypuck has their playoff chances at just over 50% at a projected point total of 92.8

The Athletic has them at 4% with 80 points 

HockeyViz has them drafting 7th with 83 points 

[tom webster]

22 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Becuase there are a lot of variables in there.  First, it is a big 'if' they win the next 3. It is possible, but from a pure statisticaly point of view, the odds of them getting  6 points in the next 3 games are less than 20% (purely statistcal). Then even if they do that, you are also talking about all the other teams that are fighting for the wild card that are ahead of the Sabres...You would still be behind or tied with the Islanders, Tampa, Rangers...providing they lost all their games...and you have to jump over Florida, Montreal, and Washington too.  

So even if the Sabres win the next 3, a big if...they are still be behind Pittsburgh...and likely behind 3-6 other teams for the wildcard. The teams above them in the next 5 days will not lose all their games because some of them are playing each other, guaranteeing that some of them will get at least some points.

The finish line is what you need to look at.  95-96 points is genrally what you need to make the playoffs (sometimes a few more, sometimes a few less) but get to a 95 point pace and then worry about the specifics in the last couple weeks of the year. Right now the Sabres are on about a 75 point pace. To get to 95 points, they have to start playing like a 104 point team the rest of the way.

Personally, I think this team has the potential to play as a 95-100 point team the rest of the way. It requires no major injuries and continued development, but I want to hope for that.  However, even if they do that, that only gets them to the 89-92 point total for the season.

I didn’t say it’s likely, I just think it’s premature to write them off.  Obviously if you use their first 25 games to predict their next 47 games the numbers say no way but the whole point is I believe a talented young team can suddenly “find” themselves and maybe the GM changes his timeline and decides to help them.

 

Thus next part is not directed at you or anyone specific but something I’ve wanted to say for awhile.

I am a numbers nerd. Planned on being an actuary. I am fascinated by the explosion of analytics not just in sports but in life in general. However, I find it somewhat amusing that in a country where Burger King’s 1/3 burger failed largely because people thought 1/3 was smaller than 1/4, in a business where I presently spend too much time explaining to customers that our new 1/4 option is smaller than our standard 1/2 option, suddenly everyone is a probabilities expert. I swear, cashiers can’t make change if they type in the wrong amount tendered but they can explain why player X is better then player y and provide all sorts of graphs and numbers to back their opinion up.

That’s it. Been up since 4:30, on my second pot of coffee and just needed to rant. Carry on.

[K-9]

It’s sports. Anything can happen and until you are mathematically eliminated you are not out of the running. That’s why they play the games. You’d think Hamilton would know that. Then again …

 

[Pimlach]

4 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I didn’t say it’s likely, I just think it’s premature to write them off.  Obviously if you use their first 25 games to predict their next 47 games the numbers say no way but the whole point is I believe a talented young team can suddenly “find” themselves and maybe the GM changes his timeline and decides to help them.

 

Thus next part is not directed at you or anyone specific but something I’ve wanted to say for awhile.

I am a numbers nerd. Planned on being an actuary. I am fascinated by the explosion of analytics not just in sports but in life in general. However, I find it somewhat amusing that in a country where Burger King’s 1/3 burger failed largely because people thought 1/3 was smaller than 1/4, in a business where I presently spend too much time explaining to customers that our new 1/4 option is smaller than our standard 1/2 option, suddenly everyone is a probabilities expert. I swear, cashiers can’t make change if they type in the wrong amount tendered but they can explain why player X is better then player y and provide all sorts of graphs and numbers to back their opinion up.

That’s it. Been up since 4:30, on my second pot of coffee and just needed to rant. Carry on.

Why do you stay up so late drinking coffee? 

[mjd1001]

10 minutes ago, tom webster said:

suddenly everyone is a probabilities expert. I swear, cashiers can’t make change if they type in the wrong amount tendered but they can explain why player X is better then player y and provide all sorts of graphs and numbers to back their opinion up.

That’s it. Been up since 4:30, on my second pot of coffee and just needed to rant. Carry on.

I agree with you on the last part. Personally, i LIKE analytics. I do not love analytics though.

Not to single anyone out, but I have seen too many times (for my liking) on this site someone post a chart that has more blue on it than red on it...and basically say 'there, this proves that player 'X' or line 'X' is good or bad...case closed."

In my opinion, analyitics alone are about as useless as someone saying 'he's playing good, look how fast he is skating into the corner.'  Without knowledge of what a player, or line is assigned to do, what the coaches are telling them to do....analytics are PART of the puzzle but like most statistics they can be misinterpreted.  As the old saying goes....there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.  

Analytics are not junk, they are useful. But in the hands of some people, they are often just cherry-picked to bolster a weak argument or incorrect belief they have about a player/line/team.

Edited December 7, 2022 by mjd1001

[tom webster]

1 minute ago, Pimlach said:

Why do you stay up so late drinking coffee? 

Because I found that there is a 51.2 % chance I will sound smarter then I am if I do.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

I understand it isn’t likely but if they beat Columbus and sweep Pittsburgh in regulation they will be three points behind Pittsburgh with same number of games played. I don’t know how you can declare them out at this point of the season.

Have we beaten any of the upper tier teams such as Colorado, Tampa, Boston, Carolina, Vegas etc? I can't recall that we did. Although we did play well in most of those matches but still lost. I think that this team can get back in the race but merely as a fringe team trying to stay in the hunt. 

[North Buffalo]

Until they get a goalie I kinda doubt it but no they are not eliminated yet.. they can score so who knows.  Still fun to watch the young guys take the next step.

[sabresouth]

Unfortunately we don't have playoff caliber goaltending. Until that is fixed, it's going to be an uphill battle.  I know defense can help with goaltending, but I can't even remember the last time one of our many goalies over last season or so far this season has stolen a game for us. Having said that I agree with K-9 it's not over till mathematically eliminated. 

[Doohicksie]

16 minutes ago, tom webster said:

Because I found that there is a 51.2 % chance I will sound smarter then I am if I do.

Is that one of the 89.3% of all statistics that are made up on the spot?

15 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Have we beaten any of the upper tier teams such as Colorado, Tampa, Boston, Carolina, Vegas etc? I can't recall that we did. Although we did play well in most of those matches but still lost. I think that this team can get back in the race but merely as a fringe team trying to stay in the hunt. 

We beat Edmonton & Calgary on the early west coast swing.

[Stoner]

36 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

The other variable to mention is injuries especially with respect to other teams.  We don't know who's going to suddenly drop out of the race.

On the other hand I think the Sabres will continue to "figure it out" and steadily improve.  They've got scoring lines that are clicking, the foundation of a solid "fourth line" in Okie and Gus and whoever you put between them.  If the third line either figures it out or Donny swaps out players and settles on something that works, the entire forward corps will be fleshed out.

The defense has two solid pairings and a meh pairing.  As long as the meh pairing doesn't hurt us too much the D is okay.

Goaltending could go either way.  UPL will either get it or reveal himself to be a career AHLer.  Comrie could come back from injury with improved perspective.  Or not.

As much as I'd like to see them make the playoffs it may take another season for these issues to resolve.  But Moneypuck still has them as a slightly better than even chance to make the playoffs.  They don't have a rooting interest, they're just looking at the numbers.

It's science! Everyone knows the magic combo: when Comrie returns to join Muel.

20 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Why do you stay up so late drinking coffee? 

He works at NORAD.

[nfreeman]

They are 3 games under DeLuca .500. If they don’t fall any further, and rip off a 4-game winning streak, they will be solidly in playoff contention.  

[JohnC]

7 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Is that one of the 89.3% of all statistics that are made up on the spot?

We beat Edmonton & Calgary on the early west coast swing.

Thanks for pointing that out. That's to our credit. But we haven't fared too well against the upper echelon teams in our division, teams that we have to surpass. You take it step by step. The team is making progress and moving forward. However, that doesn't mean that it won't be a major challenge to get over the hump this season. 

[Bangarang]

Goaltending probably won’t let us make the playoffs.

[Buffalonill]

They aren't making the playoffs sadly .

 The famous "always next year "will live on

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

They are 3 games under DeLuca .500. If they don’t fall any further, and rip off a 4-game winning streak, they will be solidly in playoff contention.  

The Deluca .500 reference is interesting because the gap between the Sabres and many of their rivals is about loser points.

PIttsburgh, Florida and Washington have 4, Detroit and the Rangers 5.

The Sabres just 1.

[Pimlach]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The Deluca .500 reference is interesting because the gap between the Sabres and many of their rivals is about loser points.

Pittsburgh, Florida and Washington have 4, Detroit and the Rangers 5.

The Sabres just 1.

I used to read this forum in the Deluca era but never joined in.   Never bought into the Deluca .500 stuff.  A tie in regulation is a point, a point is better than a loss.  

[nfreeman]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The Deluca .500 reference is interesting because the gap between the Sabres and many of their rivals is about loser points.

PIttsburgh, Florida and Washington have 4, Detroit and the Rangers 5.

The Sabres just 1.

 

2 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

I used to read this forum in the Deluca era but never joined in.   Never bought into the Deluca .500 stuff.  A tie in regulation is a point, a point is better than a loss.  

Certainly the Deluca .500 concept is rough justice.  @Taro T's approach of needing 1.2 pts per game is more precise. 

I rely on Deluca .500 because (i) it allows you to look at just their record, without checking the standings, to get a sense of where they are, (ii) the loser pts tend to even out over time and (iii) Deluca .500 is a surprisingly accurate barometer despite its shortcomings -- i.e. teams that finish below that line very seldom make the playoffs, and teams that finish above it usually make it and are just about always in the running.

For example, if the Sabres rip off a 4-game winning streak starting tonight, I will offer a Sabrespace guarantee that everyone here will be talking playoffs.

[Thorner]

36 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Thanks for pointing that out. That's to our credit. But we haven't fared too well against the upper echelon teams in our division, teams that we have to surpass. You take it step by step. The team is making progress and moving forward. However, that doesn't mean that it won't be a major challenge to get over the hump this season. 

Looking at their mid-pack records, I wouldn’t call Edmonton and Calgary upper echelon