Sabres are 7th in CF% in the NHL(all situations). Goaltending(outside Anderson) and PK are killing them.

[matter2003]

Basically all the metrics show this is actually a pretty damn good team.  7th in the NHL in Corsi is really good.  Last year they were 20th and the year before 29th.  

Anderson has played very well for them having a .917 save percentage and 2.76 GAA.  Also has a +319 Goals Saved Above Average, ranking 20th in the NHL.  

Comrie(66th) has been bad at -6.11 goals saved above average and UPL at -4.93 in only 3 games has been mind blowingly bad to the point he ranks 62 out of 74 goalies... in only 3 GAMES!! Also mind blowing is UPL has a 50% save percentage on penalty kills...how is that even possible?   Comrie is also bad at .791.  

The Sabres have the 2nd highest Corsi on the PK in the NHL!  They have given up 21 goals on the PK, but their xGA is only 15...that -6 differential is 4th worst in the NHL behind Anaheim, Vancouver and Edmonton.  So realistically the Goaltending on the PK is much worse than their PK itself.

The only answer at this point for the Sabres is to play Anderson more until he stops playing well.  Yeah he is older but so what?  Anderson currently has the highest save percentage of any 41 year old goalie since 1929. Better than Hasek, Brodeur, Belfour and Joseph in their age 41 seasons.  Play him.

So frustrating to see this team flailing about due to goaltending again, but even more frustrating that we actually HAVE a goaltender playing well and we aren't riding him.  Screw his age, ride him until he stops performing well.

[matter2003]

Also it is amazing during the worst tank years we were almost undone by strong goaltending at times stealing games we were being dominated in but now that we are actually good outside of that, the goaltending has been terrible.

Nothing will happen until we get better goaltending.  This isn't a defense issue, it isn't a forward issue.  It is purely on goaltending to be better right now.

[matter2003]

The QPC(Home Shopping Network Line - I can't take credit for that one, someone else posted it but I find it hilarious!) is DOMINATING CF% and is our best standard line at 57.97%.  

The TST line(Tuch-Skinner-Thompson) Line is also good at 54.49.

However...it appears there are 2 line combinations that have played 5 games and over 35 minutes of TOI that appear to be even better than those...

Olofsson-Middlestadt-Quinn line have a 65.57 CF%

Skinner-Thompson-Okposo line have a 63.01% CF%  

Olofsson-Middlestadt-Asplund have the worst CF% of any "regular" line combination at 46.02 showing that Quinn, even as a rookie is a MAJOR driver of CF% for this team.

Even more crazy is the Sabres have a 54.08 CF% against divisional opponents this year and are above 50 for all teams they have played...TB was is the worst with a 50.28%

[nucci]

47 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Basically all the metrics show this is actually a pretty damn good team.  7th in the NHL in Corsi is really good.  Last year they were 20th and the year before 29th.  

Anderson has played very well for them having a .917 save percentage and 2.76 GAA.  Also has a +319 Goals Saved Above Average, ranking 20th in the NHL.  

Comrie(66th) has been bad at -6.11 goals saved above average and UPL at -4.93 in only 3 games has been mind blowingly bad to the point he ranks 62 out of 74 goalies... in only 3 GAMES!! Also mind blowing is UPL has a 50% save percentage on penalty kills...how is that even possible?   Comrie is also bad at .791.  

The Sabres have the 2nd highest Corsi on the PK in the NHL!  They have given up 21 goals on the PK, but their xGA is only 15...that -6 differential is 4th worst in the NHL behind Anaheim, Vancouver and Edmonton.  So realistically the Goaltending on the PK is much worse than their PK itself.

The only answer at this point for the Sabres is to play Anderson more until he stops playing well.  Yeah he is older but so what?  Anderson currently has the highest save percentage of any 41 year old goalie since 1929. Better than Hasek, Brodeur, Belfour and Joseph in their age 41 seasons.  Play him.

So frustrating to see this team flailing about due to goaltending again, but even more frustrating that we actually HAVE a goaltender playing well and we aren't riding him.  Screw his age, ride him until he stops performing well.

except for the record....which is all that matters

[matter2003]

In terms of players...surprisingly Kyle Clague is our highest ranking player in CF% at 63.93.  It's a 7 game sample size so I don't think its a fluke either. Might be wise to give him a look over Bryson.

Quinn is in fact the number 1 Sabre regular at 56.90 followed by Skinner at 55.54, Thompson at 54.81, Dahlin and Pilut at 54.59, Cousins at 54.40, JJP at 54.03, Power at 53.80, Tuch at 52.83 and Okposo at 52.31.

The worst CF% players are Lyubushkin at 46.69, Joker at 47.08, Mittelstadt at 47.82, Samuelsson at 48.66, Hino at 49.02 and ZG at 49.72.  Surprisingly Olofsson is an over 50% CF% player(barely tho at 50.11) 

7 minutes ago, nucci said:

except for the record....which is all that matters

Which is explained by Goaltending, goaltending and more goaltending. Any way you slice it this is very encouraging tho.

Edited November 29, 2022 by matter2003

[nfreeman]

I'm no expert, but I think xGF% (expected goals for %) is generally regarded as a better metric than CF%, which is just a raw measure of shots and shot attempts.  Among other factors, xGF% factors in quality of scoring chances.

The Sabres are currently 17th in xGF%, after being 4th-worst in the NHL last season.

I agree that the goaltending and PK are major issues right now.  I don't think riding Anderson hard is a realistic solution though.  I want to see how Comrie does when he returns.  He was a bit inconsistent but overall I liked what I saw from him.

For that matter, I want to see how UPL bounces back from a lousy outing last night.

I'm not sure what the answer is on the PK.

[matter2003]

6 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I'm no expert, but I think xGF% (expected goals for %) is generally regarded as a better metric than CF%, which is just a raw measure of shots and shot attempts.  Among other factors, xGF% factors in quality of scoring chances.

The Sabres are currently 17th in xGF%, after being 4th-worst in the NHL last season.

I agree that the goaltending and PK are major issues right now.  I don't think riding Anderson hard is a realistic solution though.  I want to see how Comrie does when he returns.  He was a bit inconsistent but overall I liked what I saw from him.

For that matter, I want to see how UPL bounces back from a lousy outing last night.

I'm not sure what the answer is on the PK.

Comrie has been really bad outside of his first game.  He is 66th out of 74 goalies in terms of Goals Against Above Average at -6.11. Even more astounding since he was a +3 after the first game, meaning since game 1 he has been -9.11.  Bad on the PK at 63rd out of 74 with -2.78 GAAA. 65th when just looking at 5v5 Score and Venue Adjusted.  Basically he is as bad as the goalies last year were outside of UPL who was decent, but who has been worse than Comrie has been this year.

[Ruff Around The Edges]

Call me absolutely nuts but what if Buffalo reached out to Florida and say well take Bobrovsky where Florida eats 1/2 and the Sabres 3 way the deal and have a team eat even more of the contract and make Sergei the #1 for a few years while Levi develops? Or is that contract just too long to even consider even at 50%?

[nfreeman]

5 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Comrie has been really bad outside of his first game.  He is 66th out of 74 goalies in terms of Goals Against Above Average at -6.11. Even more astounding since he was a +3 after the first game, meaning since game 1 he has been -9.11.  Bad on the PK at 63rd out of 74 with -2.78 GAAA. 65th when just looking at 5v5 Score and Venue Adjusted.  Basically he is as bad as the goalies last year were outside of UPL who was decent, but who has been worse than Comrie has been this year.

I think Comrie's bad outings generally coincided with the injuries to the Sabres' D group.  That, combined with lack of scoring from anyone other than TT, created a very difficult situation for him and the team.

We'll see how it goes when he returns.

[nucci]

43 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

In terms of players...surprisingly Kyle Clague is our highest ranking player in CF% at 63.93.  It's a 7 game sample size so I don't think its a fluke either. Might be wise to give him a look over Bryson.

Quinn is in fact the number 1 Sabre regular at 56.90 followed by Skinner at 55.54, Thompson at 54.81, Dahlin and Pilut at 54.59, Cousins at 54.40, JJP at 54.03, Power at 53.80, Tuch at 52.83 and Okposo at 52.31.

The worst CF% players are Lyubushkin at 46.69, Joker at 47.08, Mittelstadt at 47.82, Samuelsson at 48.66, Hino at 49.02 and ZG at 49.72.  Surprisingly Olofsson is an over 50% CF% player(barely tho at 50.11) 

Which is explained by Goaltending, goaltending and more goaltending. Any way you slice it this is very encouraging tho.

ok, I'm not against stats and analytics that mean something but I don't need this stuff to be told we need better goaltending. 

[LTS]

In pure simplicity I've often looked at goal differential as an indicator. A team high the in the standings but negative goal differential seems to either get blown out or wins a tight game, most often a tight, low scoring game. All in all it's indicative of a team that cannot score.

Teams with a positive differential but low in the standings have figured out how to score but haven't figured out how to close down games. They could probably reduce the goals against but could they do it and retain their scoring?

All in all its easier to find players who can clog lanes.. a no brainer.

The Sabres are +2 differential.  That puts them at T-13th with the Rangers, one behind Detroit and one head of Florida, the last positive team.

The Sabres are 25th in the standings. The teams immediately above them?  Nashville and Washington -12.  Below them? Philly -21, San Jose, -17.

Naturally at this point we can all tell without seeing these numbers that the Sabres are getting caved in. It's a balance between poor defense and mediocre to poor goaltending leading the way.

That said, the Sabres have given their path of development. They are sticking to it. It means we are in for more games like the Lightning game. Hopefully we see a trend where the players learn from their mistakes versus bringing in someone else to cover for their mistakes. It's just going to be a plan to have the team at a point next season where some people want them today.

 

[Sidc3000]

I just posted something in the GDT thread. First, the Sabres don’t want to ride Anderson and squeeze out every last bit of energy he has. Anderson doesn’t want the Sabres to do that. When he agreed to return, I’m sure playing time was discussed and the agreement was that Anderson would get adequate rest. It takes longer to recover as you age, even from day to day work. It took him a long time to recover from his injury last year and I’m guessing he contributed the injury, in part, to his playing schedule and not being able to rest his body adequately. 
 

The bottom line is, the Sabres will not be riding Anderson like they would a hot young goalie so this is a totally moot point. 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Sidc3000

[sabresparaavida]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

The QPC(Home Shopping Network Line - I can't take credit for that one, someone else posted it but I find it hilarious!) is DOMINATING CF% and is our best standard line at 57.97%.  

The TST line(Tuch-Skinner-Thompson) Line is also good at 54.49.

However...it appears there are 2 line combinations that have played 5 games and over 35 minutes of TOI that appear to be even better than those...

Olofsson-Middlestadt-Quinn line have a 65.57 CF%

Skinner-Thompson-Okposo line have a 63.01% CF%  

Olofsson-Middlestadt-Asplund have the worst CF% of any "regular" line combination at 46.02 showing that Quinn, even as a rookie is a MAJOR driver of CF% for this team.

Even more crazy is the Sabres have a 54.08 CF% against divisional opponents this year and are above 50 for all teams they have played...TB was is the worst with a 50.28%

So Theoretically:

Skinner-Thompson-Okposo

JJP-Cozens-Tuch

oloffson-Mitts-Quinn

Girgs-Jost-Asplund 

may be our best line combinations. I’d hate to see JJP-Cozens-Quinn broken up with the way they’ve been playing though. 

[thewookie1]

39 minutes ago, Ruff Around The Edges said:

Call me absolutely nuts but what if Buffalo reached out to Florida and say well take Bobrovsky where Florida eats 1/2 and the Sabres 3 way the deal and have a team eat even more of the contract and make Sergei the #1 for a few years while Levi develops? Or is that contract just too long to even consider even at 50%?

Hell I'd take him for free if they retain 33%

[Berg]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Basically all the metrics show this is actually a pretty damn good team.  7th in the NHL in Corsi is really good.  Last year they were 20th and the year before 29th.  

Anderson has played very well for them having a .917 save percentage and 2.76 GAA.  Also has a +319 Goals Saved Above Average, ranking 20th in the NHL.  

Comrie(66th) has been bad at -6.11 goals saved above average and UPL at -4.93 in only 3 games has been mind blowingly bad to the point he ranks 62 out of 74 goalies... in only 3 GAMES!! Also mind blowing is UPL has a 50% save percentage on penalty kills...how is that even possible?   Comrie is also bad at .791.  

The Sabres have the 2nd highest Corsi on the PK in the NHL!  They have given up 21 goals on the PK, but their xGA is only 15...that -6 differential is 4th worst in the NHL behind Anaheim, Vancouver and Edmonton.  So realistically the Goaltending on the PK is much worse than their PK itself.

The only answer at this point for the Sabres is to play Anderson more until he stops playing well.  Yeah he is older but so what?  Anderson currently has the highest save percentage of any 41 year old goalie since 1929. Better than Hasek, Brodeur, Belfour and Joseph in their age 41 seasons.  Play him.

So frustrating to see this team flailing about due to goaltending again, but even more frustrating that we actually HAVE a goaltender playing well and we aren't riding him.  Screw his age, ride him until he stops performing 

I agree with everything, but I feel sorry for Anderson.😅

Last year, all the hardest games were hung on Tokarski. Ulmark also could not stand the load and ran away when he realized that they would not pay big money.

One thing I know is that those guys who lead the team to the Playoffs for the first time in many years will be heroes for everyone and get into the Buffalo Hall of Fame. Even if they fly out in the first round.

[LGR4GM]

We need Devon Levi is what we need. Portillo not leaving college also didn't help but I don't see any goaltending help coming until Comrie is healthy unless they start playing Anderson more. 

We need another defender and we need a goalie. 

[matter2003]

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

We need Devon Levi is what we need. Portillo not leaving college also didn't help but I don't see any goaltending help coming until Comrie is healthy unless they start playing Anderson more. 

We need another defender and we need a goalie. 

Comrie isn't "help".  He has been among the worst goalies in the NHL in terms of allowing goals above average.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

We need Devon Levi is what we need. Portillo not leaving college also didn't help but I don't see any goaltending help coming until Comrie is healthy unless they start playing Anderson more. 

We need another defender and we need a goalie. 

Yup.  And they were needs in the offseason.  But, unless this Chychrun rumor has legs, expect what we see is what we get until the offseason.

[Berg]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

We need Devon Levi is what we need. Portillo not leaving college also didn't help but I don't see any goaltending help coming until Comrie is healthy unless they start playing Anderson more. 

We need another defender and we need a goalie. 

And it would be nice to finally learn how to win face-offs. In 90% of games, we lost this figure and, accordingly, got extra shots on goal and goals...

[matter2003]

11 minutes ago, Berg said:

And it would be nice to finally learn how to win face-offs. In 90% of games, we lost this figure and, accordingly, got extra shots on goal and goals...

Sabres have been bad and are getting worse on faceoff percentage.  Overall they are at 46.5%, which is 7th worst but in the last 10 they have been a little over 45% and the last 5 games, 43.5%.  Should be getting better, not worse.

That being said, the worst team in the NHL on faceoffs is the defending Cup Champion Colorado Avalanche at 43.5% on the season. They were 5th worst last year too and still won the cup.

The Blackhawks are the best team in the NHL on faceoffs at 56.4% and are the 2nd worst team in the NHL in term of points.

However, in general faceoffs have not been found to be highly correlated with wins and losses.  The Penguins over a decade were the winningest team in the NHL and were a bad faceoff team.

Edited November 29, 2022 by matter2003

[Berg]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

Sabres have been bad and are getting worse on faceoff percentage.  Overall they are at 46.5%, which is 7th worst but in the last 10 they have been a little over 45% and the last 5 games, 43.5%.  Should be getting better, not worse.

That being said, the worst team in the NHL on faceoffs is the defending Cup Champion Colorado Avalanche at 43.5% on the season. They were 5th worst last year too and still won the cup.

The Blackhawks are the best team in the NHL on faceoffs at 56.4% and are the 2nd worst team in the NHL in term of points.

However, in general faceoffs have not been found to be highly correlated with wins and losses.  The Penguins over a decade were the winningest team in the NHL and were a bad faceoff team.

This may not be the biggest problem, but when you have sleepy flies on the net and a club of gentlemen in defense, then every faceoff makes you freeze.

Edited November 29, 2022 by Berg

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

We need Devon Levi is what we need. Portillo not leaving college also didn't help but I don't see any goaltending help coming until Comrie is healthy unless they start playing Anderson more. 

We need another defender and we need a goalie. 

I'd add a solid 2-way center to that list but otherwise we actually agree on this. 

[PerreaultForever]

40 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Sabres have been bad and are getting worse on faceoff percentage.  Overall they are at 46.5%, which is 7th worst but in the last 10 they have been a little over 45% and the last 5 games, 43.5%.  Should be getting better, not worse.

That being said, the worst team in the NHL on faceoffs is the defending Cup Champion Colorado Avalanche at 43.5% on the season. They were 5th worst last year too and still won the cup.

The Blackhawks are the best team in the NHL on faceoffs at 56.4% and are the 2nd worst team in the NHL in term of points.

However, in general faceoffs have not been found to be highly correlated with wins and losses.  The Penguins over a decade were the winningest team in the NHL and were a bad faceoff team.

Is there a correlation between PK rankings and face offs? Seems to me dropping 20 seconds off that penalty by winning a draw in your own end matters a LOT. 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

Sabres have been bad and are getting worse on faceoff percentage.  Overall they are at 46.5%, which is 7th worst but in the last 10 they have been a little over 45% and the last 5 games, 43.5%.  Should be getting better, not worse.

That being said, the worst team in the NHL on faceoffs is the defending Cup Champion Colorado Avalanche at 43.5% on the season. They were 5th worst last year too and still won the cup.

The Blackhawks are the best team in the NHL on faceoffs at 56.4% and are the 2nd worst team in the NHL in term of points.

However, in general faceoffs have not been found to be highly correlated with wins and losses.  The Penguins over a decade were the winningest team in the NHL and were a bad faceoff team.

Faceoffs "don't matter" for 2 reasons.  1 - a lot of faceoffs are in the neutral zone which rarely get won cleanly enough to have a team on its heels and 2 - they are rarely won cleanly.

But make no mistake, cleanly won faceoffs in the zone can & do change the outcome of games.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Sabres have been bad and are getting worse on faceoff percentage.  Overall they are at 46.5%, which is 7th worst but in the last 10 they have been a little over 45% and the last 5 games, 43.5%.  Should be getting better, not worse.

That being said, the worst team in the NHL on faceoffs is the defending Cup Champion Colorado Avalanche at 43.5% on the season. They were 5th worst last year too and still won the cup.

The Blackhawks are the best team in the NHL on faceoffs at 56.4% and are the 2nd worst team in the NHL in term of points.

However, in general faceoffs have not been found to be highly correlated with wins and losses.  The Penguins over a decade were the winningest team in the NHL and were a bad faceoff team.

Faceoffs don't matter, until they do. Getting good faceoff guys though is a waste of assets impo

48 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Faceoffs "don't matter" for 2 reasons.  1 - a lot of faceoffs are in the neutral zone which rarely get won cleanly enough to have a team on its heels and 2 - they are rarely won cleanly.

But make no mistake, cleanly won faceoffs in the zone can & do change the outcome of games.

Just not often. That's the thing, faceoffs don't matter until they matter.