NHL Age Curves and xG/60 Impact

[Brawndo]

 

[Thorner]

Re: accounting for assists, too: I *believe* liger’s chart, due to the “impact on” verbiage does include/allow for assist creation for expected impacts, but waiting on confirmation. 

The biggest difference re: looking at the chart or just pulling raw stats off the scoring leaders chart is the “expected” and “per 60” designations. Ie it’s attempting the usual “advanced” component of advanced stats with the “expected” component ie levelling the playing field by accounting for things like randomness/luck where the shots are being taken from/ teammate/opponent etc etc. Then it adds the further component of the per 60 designation, supposing to again balance for production differences due merely to ice time. 

Even a cursory analysis of why per 60 might represent a meaningful distinction yields a readily apparent justification: it stands to follow that the players being paid the most will get the most ice time and the opportunity to produce that comes with it, logically stands to follow that breaking production down to a per-minute basis lends a more level playing field for analysis. 

Its another valuable way of looking at the numbers, raw totals will also always provide value 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Thorny

[SwampD]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

I can't really buy into this... basically it says a player peaks at scoring at age 20, declines til age 35 but then somehow starts going back up at age 36 until age 40?

 

Doesn’t it just mean that the worse players have to leave the NHL, so that once you get to 36 on that chart, you are most likely left with the better players who are capable of playing past 36?

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Any idea if the curves change when looking at expected goals FOR and not just expected goals? The current chart is using just individual expected, correct? 

And it also includes PP mins in the per 60, correct? 

Edit: actually, it says “impact on” so perhaps this is representative of expected goals for and not just individual expected goals. I feel like sometimes people are a bit loosey goosey with the terminology which leads to confusion 

Don't know. I'm not sure Micah has a chart for that. Would be useful