Are The Sabres A Dark Horse Contender for Jakob Chychrun?

[nfreeman]

3 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Here is the question though is Östlund the best prospect put on the table by any team? 
Is the trade value of Olofsson as a PP Specialist/3rd with salary retained the highest of a rostered player. 
The trade off for a Top 15 Protected Pick could be the they also get the highest of the Sabres 3 Second Rounders. 
If they really want to get creative the Sabres could retain 50% of Olofsson’s Deal meaning any team gets Him for two playoff runs at 1.18 Million AAV, after Arizona moves Him. 
 

BTW, I believe most of the people advocating for Olofsson to be traded, had a player coming in return.

Also a 2023 1st with Top 7 Protection would drop the value in the rest of the return IMO. 

Very good points about Östlund and VO.  I think though that AZ would probably rather have a 2023 pick that they expect to be in the 8-14 range than Östlund, and would probably rather have a young NHL regular under team control for a while than VO.  But you're right that those assets might not materialize in offers from other teams, and the package from the Sabres you describe might be the best offer.  I guess the question at that point is whether they'd rather just keep Chychrun.

[Crusader1969]

4 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Well, if I'm AZ, I say no thanks on top-15 protected from the Sabres, as that would almost certainly mean the protection applies and the pick slips a year.  They're going to want a #1 in 2023, or at least a likely #1, coming back.  But I agree that the rest of your proposal is pretty compelling, and I wonder whether anyone else would beat, say, a top-7 protected 2023 #1, Östlund/Rosen, and VO.

I'll also note that while I have generally objected to trading VO as an alleged remedy to the Sabres' alleged surplus of scoring forwards, I am fine with trading him in a situation like this, where the Sabres are getting a putative really good player coming back.

There is no way you can include a non protected 1st in this years draft.   Top 10 or lottery, otherwise it would be a completely crazy move by Adams

I wouldn’t give up Savoie   
 

Rosen or Östlund would suck to see leave but I’d survive 

Kulich would really suck to see traded away but again I’d survive 

Ryan Johnson would be considered a first but the coyotes would need a guarantee that he signs with them  

trading a roster player would be tough, since they don’t really have NHL ready depth at this time 

my ideal trade would be 

Krebs, Rosen and next years lottery first 

That’s a high price to pay but solidifies the D  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Scottysabres]

5 hours ago, tom webster said:

For those unaware, Chychurn went to school with two of the Pegula children while living in Boca Raton.

And the plot thickens.....

[Taro T]

23 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Very good points about Östlund and VO.  I think though that AZ would probably rather have a 2023 pick that they expect to be in the 8-14 range than Östlund, and would probably rather have a young NHL regular under team control for a while than VO.  But you're right that those assets might not materialize in offers from other teams, and the package from the Sabres you describe might be the best offer.  I guess the question at that point is whether they'd rather just keep Chychrun.

Don't see any way they'd want a guy as old as Olofsson.  Really doubt they'd want anyone older than Cozens.  (Not saying he'd have to be in the package, just not other seeing anyone older than that being a part of it.  Should the Sabres actually make an offer.)

Edited November 27, 2022 by Taro T

[Crusader1969]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Don't see any way they'd want a guy as old as Olofsson.  Really doubt they'd want anyone older than Cozens.  (Not saying he'd have to be in the package, just other seeing anyone older than that being a part of it.  Should the Sabres actually make an offer.)

I agree.  I thought they had said they want it to be a young roster player who they can control for a number of years 

the only one I can think of that fits that description that Buffalo would even consider trading is Krebs 

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

I kind of doubt it, because Adams has shown pretty much zero inclination to take on dead money unless it’s just for one season to reach the cap floor.  I think it’s highly unlikely that the the Sabres would take on dead money for 3 seasons.

I think it’s more likely that they actually trade for Chychrun.

No it would just be for one season. This season, and not even a full year. What I'm suggesting is a team up against the cap would need relief for this season. Next year they'll have their own UFAs they can let go etc. and fit him in. But maybe we trade for him idk. It would signal a shift to a faster build so I'm doubtful. 

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

On July 1, 2025 he has ZERO value to the Yotes.  That is a fact.  That you don't consider it "relatively soon" doesn't alter that.  And, IMHO, teams would be willing to give up more for him now than they would in July '24 or even July '23 so for a team that wants to lose in the near term he'll never have more value for them than he does today in a package of prospects &/or picks.  Does that mean the Sabres would have to add a prospect to the package?  Maybe, don't know.  Hadn't put a ton of thought into it and again whatever the Sabres would have to give up to land Chychrun is slightly more than the 2nd best deal the Yotes are offered.  Which was the main point of the post.  People tend to look at trades in a tunnel between just the 2 trading parties, but the 3rd team is the one that really sets the value & the trade parameters.

I'm not arguing that his value might be higher now than later, but lots of things factor in. Maybe a playoff bound team has a key defensive injury late in the season? That can push them to turn an offer of a 2nd to a 1st or whatever. Lots of things factor in. A player like him will have value right up until the deadline before his UFA status kicks in. 

[Curt]

8 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

No it would just be for one season. This season, and not even a full year. What I'm suggesting is a team up against the cap would need relief for this season. Next year they'll have their own UFAs they can let go etc. and fit him in. But maybe we trade for him idk. It would signal a shift to a faster build so I'm doubtful. 

You are suggesting that the Sabres retain salary on Chychrun, correct?

Chychrun has this season and 2 others remaining on his contract.

When NHL teams retain salary on a contract, they must do so for each season remaining on the contract.  There is no option to retain salary for just one season of a 3 year contract.

The scenario that you are suggesting is not possible.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Curt

[apuszczalowski]

28 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

And the plot thickens.....

I don't know, it's not like he is struggling for a roster spot ND needs them to put in a good word for him.

Also unless he has the ability to pick and chose where he goes, it won't matter if he has ties to the owners kids. Maybe it helps in FA to get a meeting, or gets TP to convince KA to atleast look into what it might take

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

It would do wonders for probably half the fan base if KA can show he can walk and chew gum at the same time.

So, do you like KA or not?  

[kas23]

1 hour ago, Justin C said:

My favorite thing about these trade rumor posts is seeing players that posters constantly criticize get thrown into these deals like the other team would just take them and doesn’t see what we all see.

We do so with the hope that there’s a worse front office than ours out there and there probably are. Plus, there’s always losing teams out there who will take young warm bodies. 

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

There is no way you can include a non protected 1st in this years draft.   Top 10 or lottery, otherwise it would be a completely crazy move by Adams

I wouldn’t give up Savoie   
 

Rosen or Östlund would suck to see leave but I’d survive 

Kulich would really suck to see traded away but again I’d survive 

Ryan Johnson would be considered a first but the coyotes would need a guarantee that he signs with them  

trading a roster player would be tough, since they don’t really have NHL ready depth at this time 

my ideal trade would be 

Krebs, Rosen and next years lottery first 

That’s a high price to pay but solidifies the D  

 

You just offered 3 ones essentially.  One of them unprotected in an alleged strong draft where will be in the lottery.  No way.  

If they get an unprotect from us it has to 2024.    

Just now, kas23 said:

We do so with the hope that there’s a worse front office than ours out there and there probably are. Plus, there’s always losing teams out there who will take young warm bodies. 

If we don't try, we won't know.  They have a player that they want to move and won't be able to re-sign at some point.  

[triumph_communes]

If we want to trade two former first round busts and one first rounder for a 20 something then sure, I can see why they’d pull that trigger. Especially on defense where the cupboards are bare.  This move alone isn’t fixing this team tho.  Our forwards are too weak to play strong and too tweener to play skilled.  Need a couple vets and that type of acquisition doesn’t happen until off season. 
 

Not sure why we’d beat around the bush here though. Trade Krebs for Chych straight up and call it a day.  Use those other assets for vet depth. 

Edited November 27, 2022 by triumph_communes

[Crusader1969]

31 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

You just offered 3 ones essentially.  One of them unprotected in an alleged strong draft where will be in the lottery.  No way.  

If they get an unprotect from us it has to 2024.    

If we don't try, we won't know.  They have a player that they want to move and won't be able to re-sign at some point.  

Sorry meant lottery protected firsts 

 

they want a young roster player with term.  Besides Krebs, who else is there ?  
 

if you give up Krebs and the 1st. Maybe your prospect can be someone drafted in round 4 or so 

[grinreaper]

I don't watch much hockey other than the Sabres and the playoffs. That pretty much means I haven't watched Chychrun play but if he's as good as many of you say and the fact that he's of the age and has a reasonable contract that would fit in with the team, I'd be all for a fair deal that doesn't deplete our team or pipeline. I believe we have the makings of a defense corps that with the right addition or two could rival the Nashville defense of a few years ago and with their youth could strengthen this team for an extended period of time. I know I've preached a little bit here about the necessity of following the team's plan. This is the kind of a deal that would fit in with those parameters. 

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Don't see any way they'd want a guy as old as Olofsson.  Really doubt they'd want anyone older than Cozens.  (Not saying he'd have to be in the package, just not other seeing anyone older than that being a part of it.  Should the Sabres actually make an offer.)

Arizona wants to get young and get all the picks. They don't want a late 20s sniper until they have Bedard a season in (and maybe an Auston Matthews at ridiculous salary). By then, VO will not be nearly as appetizing for them.

I realize a lot of folks dislike VO's game, but a move to get Chychrun says "let's get better right now" and moving VO this season says "we're not ready right now". Quinn is supplanting VO in the top 6, but no other forward on the top outside of the top line has VO's ability to put the puck in the net. And Quinn still has yet to show he can float up-and-down the lineup or stay healthy through an entire season. Let him grow and have VO's shot, too. The folks you could put at wing: Jost, Girgensons, Hino, Krebs, won't match VO's output. And it's not like the cap is an issue.

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

You are suggesting that the Sabres retain salary on Chychrun, correct?

Chychrun has this season and 2 others remaining on his contract.

When NHL teams retain salary on a contract, they must do so for each season remaining on the contract.  There is no option to retain salary for just one season of a 3 year contract.

The scenario that you are suggesting is not possible.

Is that the rule? I did not realize that was the case. All these cap rules get hard to follow. I will take your word for it. In that case, no, it isn't a likely scenario. 

[bob_sauve28]

Tempting as it might be, no way should we be giving away two first round picks for a guy who will only be here a few years 

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Tempting as it might be, no way should we be giving away two first round picks for a guy who will only be here a few years 

Then basically you are saying they shouldn't trade for any high end guy who's already on/ past his 2nd contract.  Because it's very rare for those guys to get traded with more than 2-3 years left before they're UFAs.

[klos1963]

5 hours ago, Taro T said:

The question becomes, what do we expect the best non-Sabres offer to be?

He's got 2 more years on his deal, but the Yotes aren't going to be trying to win during that time, so figure he's leaving on July 1, 2025, so though the Yotes don't have to trade him he'll relatively soon have no value at all.

The floor for the deal is what do they see 2-1/2 years of his play being worth staying in the desert.  The almost ceiling of what they'll get is that "2nd best deal."  Expect that is higher than that floor as they WANT to lose now & can't sell any more tix until they move to a different barn so that floor is pretty low, so that's what the Sabres needed to beat.  @dudacek's post should be a pretty good proxy for that 2nd best deal.  A non-lottery protected 1st (or lightly protected, say top 5) & the Sabres best or 2nd best 2nd rounder looks to be pretty comparable.  (With the best 2nd being a part of the package if the 1st slides & the 2nd best if it comes this year.)  Those pieces would be coming into the NHL on the Yotes schedule to rejoin the NHL.  The Q becomes, again, is that better than the 2nd best offer.

What makes you say that? They're doing the same thing the Sabres are, stocking up draft picks/players. We have basically the same record as they do and we're supposed to be a year or 2 ahead of them. They are doing exactly what we are doing, just a little ahead of schedule compared to us.

Even if the Yotes held on to him a couple years, he'll have great value if his game goes where expected. Look what we got for Risto, he'll bring in a lot more than that.

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

they want a young roster player with term.  Besides Krebs, who else is there ?  
 

if you give up Krebs and the 1st. Maybe your prospect can be someone drafted in round 4 or so 

When was the last time a GM gave up / traded a piece they just acquired in a trade over a player drafted by another GM.  It’s why I always think Mitts is somehow in the mix. Unless Krebs was specifically a target, and I can’t see that. 

[Sidc3000]

So all this chatter for the rumor that Adams kicked the tires on this kid. I would be shocked it he made any significant move like this. i guess we’ll see

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, klos1963 said:

What makes you say that? They're doing the same thing the Sabres are, stocking up draft picks/players. We have basically the same record ams they do and we're supposed to be a year or 2 ahead of them. They are doing exactly what we are doing, just a little ahead of schedule compared to us.

Even if the Yotes held on to him a couple years, he'll have great value if his game goes where expected. Look what we got for Risto, he'll bring in a lot more than that.

Yes, the Yotes are stocking up on young players & draft picks and are, as you say, 2 years behind the Sabres.  Fully expect the Yotes are hoping to win the next 2 draft lotteries and not fall just short in their quests unlike when they tried in '15 & '16.  Then start rebuilding w/ Matthews as the centerpiece in a triumphant return to the desert.

Again, my expectation is that they see Chychrun having more value converted into the picks & prospects he'll return than the play he'll bring on the ice.  An awful lot of the "insiders" are of that opinion as well.  Is it correct?  We'll see.

And, really expect you are mistaken if you think he'll bring back significantly more than Ristolainen did when he's a rental.  Rentals get discounted; it is what it is.

[Brawndo]

6 hours ago, Contempt said:

So...after he hurt his knee then.  How's he doing now?

He’s only played 55 minutes this season. 

Offense looks good, defense slightly below average 

[PerreaultForever]

2 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

He’s only played 55 minutes this season. 

Offense looks good, defense slightly below average 

So a perfect fit for the Sabres then?