Trade targets

[Huckleberry]

16 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm not opposed to it but why?

I am, his qualifying offer is 10 million , basically his next team will be forced to overpay for him.    Why would we do that ? 

Edit: see you already commented on the same later on 😄

Edited January 25, 2023 by Huckleberry

[Thorner]

6 hours ago, Brawndo said:

 

I’ve been hearing for a couple years now from people who know way more about the advanced metrics than me that, as scoring skyrockets, not just even Cs but forwards in general are carrying more and more potential for value relative to the other 2 positions. I suppose that, 

A) Adams focusing on making our F group the deepest possible first, as he appears to have targeted, before detailing the rest of the roster makes a lot of sense 

B) Teams will live and die by their depth of F. We aren’t done at F, won’t be done at F, and it’s why Adams is inquiring on guys like Meier

C) The D that can provide top value are much rarer and harder to find. Making a Dahlin even more valuable as more teams will struggle to find D that can live up to the aptitude of their Fs. D advantage for us (Dahlin, Power) proving a potential X factor. 

D) these lists must fluctuate a bit b/c Mark Scheifele has not been good by advanced metrics any time lately until this year.

It does show the impact of coaching indisputably. 

 

[Thorner]

4 hours ago, inkman said:

At some point they will probably need to trade VO.  Or let him walk.  If I’m KA, once Kulich or Quinn appear ready to take on that role, I move him for what will be an asset for replenishment for the players we move on from.   

How many cups does the team have that lets the 30/40 goal scorer walk? Come on now.

[nfreeman]

4 hours ago, inkman said:

At some point they will probably need to trade VO.  Or let him walk.  If I’m KA, once Kulich or Quinn appear ready to take on that role, I move him for what will be an asset for replenishment for the players we move on from.   

I've been thinking about VO lately.  He's on pace for 38 goals this year and is under contract through next season, after which he'll turn 29 that summer.

Suppose he scores 35 goals this season and next season.  Even with the league-wide scoring increase, there aren't that many guys who score 35 (VO is currently tied for 26th in goals).  Are the Sabres really going to let that many goals walk out the door?  Do they really think Quinn (7 goals in 40 games), JJP (7 in 45) or Kulich (7 in 29 AHL games) can score at that level?

At some point, proven NHL performance should trump potential, innit?

[Thorner]

People like being in the playoff hunt, now, right? And if we get in, wouldn’t it be nice to win a game? VO helps both to a considerable degree. If Quinn took his spot now (Ie we tasked him with replacing VO’s production) we’d win less. How can we talk endlessly of culture and not suppose this team will benefit greatly in the now, and long term, by building the strongest foundation possible, this season? 

I understand it’s being framed as “will replace” and not that it’s time, now, but it’s not just about Quinn surpassing VO. Assuming he does, who’s taking Quinn’s former spot?

More than ever, with rising scoring and deep NHL F groups, we need to be looking at a 12 spot roster and also assume injuries (that wildly we’ve been able to almost avoid this year). Does Asplund or Hinostroza, the current 13th guy, replace VO’s 30/40 goals? I don’t think we have anyone close. 

Let’s just worry about the next couple years first, ya? Replace him when the talent level of the top 12 forces a 35 goal scorer to the bench based on ability. As ever I think it’s important to remember that the future we covet probably only arrives if we actively harness it: make the competition we used to *pretend* we had, actually happen. The non-KA guy with his 30 goals annoyingly preventing the next young prospect from making the team is exactly the spot we want to be. Finally. 

Edited January 25, 2023 by Thorny

[inkman]

17 minutes ago, Thorny said:

How many cups does the team have that lets the 30/40 goal scorer walk? Come on now.

A team that has 4 other 40 goal scorers? At least that’s what I envision when they make a move. 

They won’t be able to pay everyone…soon

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, inkman said:

A team that has 4 other 40 goal scorers? At least that’s what I envision when they make a move. 

They won’t be able to pay everyone…soon

But even then we can go for a hockey trade. Guys like Samuelsson don’t break bank. If we eventually get to a spot where we want to convert Olofsson’s valuable points, that pay, to defensive aptitude that kinda really doesn’t, then that’s swell. But it’s too valuable a commodity to not see a return on asset.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Thorny

[Taro T]

52 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I've been thinking about VO lately.  He's on pace for 38 goals this year and is under contract through next season, after which he'll turn 29 that summer.

Suppose he scores 35 goals this season and next season.  Even with the league-wide scoring increase, there aren't that many guys who score 35 (VO is currently tied for 26th in goals).  Are the Sabres really going to let that many goals walk out the door?  Do they really think Quinn (7 goals in 40 games), JJP (7 in 45) or Kulich (7 in 29 AHL games) can score at that level?

At some point, proven NHL performance should trump potential, innit?

It's a good question and a substatial part of why Adams job gets difficult 1 year from now & in that following offseason.  The Sabres should be at a point where they not only have NHL talent through all 23 slots but also have some buried in Ra-cha-cha or Juniors, or Europe as well.  And Adams & his team need to figure out how to keep the team playing at a high level but also not slamming the window shut prematurely on them playing at a high level

There will be a lot of hard choices to be made.  But this team could very well be on the verge of having a Tampa Bay style window opening (though likely with not that much success, they've been ridiculously successful for most all the time the Sabres have been bottom feeders) IF Adams makes the right moves to keep converting guys that are about to drop off talent wise into prospects & bottom 6 guys while the right middle 6 guys step up & the right prospects step up.

And one of those right moves is figuring out how to keep Olofsson w/out letting something else that's necessary walk out the door or how to replace his production and what to exchange him for or to just let him walk out the door.

The good thing is the coaches have a real good feel for what guys they're working with can actually be, and that's a huge piece of data that neither Murray nor Botterill had to work with.

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

I've been thinking about VO lately.  He's on pace for 38 goals this year and is under contract through next season, after which he'll turn 29 that summer.

Suppose he scores 35 goals this season and next season.  Even with the league-wide scoring increase, there aren't that many guys who score 35 (VO is currently tied for 26th in goals).  Are the Sabres really going to let that many goals walk out the door?  Do they really think Quinn (7 goals in 40 games), JJP (7 in 45) or Kulich (7 in 29 AHL games) can score at that level?

At some point, proven NHL performance should trump potential, innit?

VO's production is why I was alarmed about folks wanting to trade him this preseason or early on to make room for the kids. Kids are untrustworthy and inconsistent. JJP and Quinn have potential to be great, and they do things VO just doesn't do (transition the puck really well, create space on their own when they're feeling confident and 100% energy, JJP forechecks better, etc.). But they aren't scorers yet. VO might not be consistent, but what secondary scorer is consistent? When he's on, he's on.

VO is Peak-VO right now. He's in an ideal spot as a 3W and PP specialist where he's only going to get 15 minutes, but can always be a threat to score. He can get you 30 goals. To me, "Peak-Quinn" is maybe... Patrick Sharp. 25 goals and 40 assists. He's got the vision and ability to carry/distribute that VO doesn't. "Peak-JJP"... I don't know what he compares to. Just a super-consistent middle 6 guy who does everything. 20-30-50? The player I think actually replaces VO is Kulich. I think the trio of those JJP-Quinn-Kulich (on different lines) in two years compared to JJP-Quinn-VO today will be an incredible improvement, even if Kulich doesn't really ever exceed VO's goal totals. (But I think Kulich can match them a few times.)

What intrigues me the most is... do the Sabres get to the playoffs this season or next, and if they do, how does VO's game look when the tenacity and intensity ramp up? There will always be seams and zone breakdowns and forgotten guys even in the most ferocious playoff series. But will VO be able to find them? And if he can't do it this season, can he be moved for a 2nd next deadline for a different type of role player more suited for the playoffs for us? And if they don't make the playoffs this season, but are in great shape next season and VO is a big reason why, you don't dare move him heading into the playoffs, even if his game might not translate to the second season.

Overall, though, I think this is a good problem to have.

[LGR4GM]

I personally think Quinn will replace Olofssons scoring. 

[klos1963]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

And that's fair. Meier is just 26 and one of the league's best power forwards.

The qualifying offer doesn't mean he's getting that much on term, but no one is trading the likes of Quinn for him without knowing what his demands are and whether they fit in your cap.

The Sabres have set themselves up as one of the few franchises to be in a position to acquire a player of Meier's calibre and circumstances this summer.

He could be our Hossa. I'm not interested in breaking the bank, but I would hope Adams is taking a hard look.

Hossa was one of my all time fav players. I think Meier is a tremendous forward and would love to see a trade for him.

[DarthEbriate]

41 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I personally think Quinn will replace Olofssons scoring. 

1:1 for sure. But I think Quinn will be a top-6 winger (in 2025, Quinn-Cozens-Tuch / Skinner-Tage-TBD to feast on 2nd pairings/lines) and so he'll easily outpace VO's production. The question of whether the 3W (Kulich) can meet or exceed Olofsson... that's the tricky part.

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

People like being in the playoff hunt, now, right? And if we get in, wouldn’t it be nice to win a game? VO helps both to a considerable degree. If Quinn took his spot now (Ie we tasked him with replacing VO’s production) we’d win less. How can we talk endlessly of culture and not suppose this team will benefit greatly in the now, and long term, by building the strongest foundation possible, this season? 

I understand it’s being framed as “will replace” and not that it’s time, now, but it’s not just about Quinn surpassing VO. Assuming he does, who’s taking Quinn’s former spot?

More than ever, with rising scoring and deep NHL F groups, we need to be looking at a 12 spot roster and also assume injuries (that wildly we’ve been able to almost avoid this year). Does Asplund or Hinostroza, the current 13th guy, replace VO’s 30/40 goals? I don’t think we have anyone close. 

Let’s just worry about the next couple years first, ya? Replace him when the talent level of the top 12 forces a 35 goal scorer to the bench based on ability. As ever I think it’s important to remember that the future we covet probably only arrives if we actively harness it: make the competition we used to *pretend* we had, actually happen. The non-KA guy with his 30 goals annoyingly preventing the next young prospect from making the team is exactly the spot we want to be. Finally. 

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

But even then we can go for a hockey trade. Guys like Samuelsson don’t break bank. If we eventually get to a spot where we want to convert Olofsson’s valuable points, that pay, to defensive aptitude that kinda really doesn’t, then that’s swell. But it’s too valuable a commodity to not see a return on asset.

I agree with most of this and would just add that I think unless the bottom falls out on the Sabres, there is NFW they trade VO this year unless it's in a package for a Meier or Chycrun or someone at that level. 

 

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

It's a good question and a substatial part of why Adams job gets difficult 1 year from now & in that following offseason.  The Sabres should be at a point where they not only have NHL talent through all 23 slots but also have some buried in Ra-cha-cha or Juniors, or Europe as well.  And Adams & his team need to figure out how to keep the team playing at a high level but also not slamming the window shut prematurely on them playing at a high level

There will be a lot of hard choices to be made.  But this team could very well be on the verge of having a Tampa Bay style window opening (though likely with not that much success, they've been ridiculously successful for most all the time the Sabres have been bottom feeders) IF Adams makes the right moves to keep converting guys that are about to drop off talent wise into prospects & bottom 6 guys while the right middle 6 guys step up & the right prospects step up.

And one of those right moves is figuring out how to keep Olofsson w/out letting something else that's necessary walk out the door or how to replace his production and what to exchange him for or to just let him walk out the door.

The good thing is the coaches have a real good feel for what guys they're working with can actually be, and that's a huge piece of data that neither Murray nor Botterill had to work with.

Good stuff here.  I like the comparison to Tampa and their cycling guys through.  I think that is definitely the plan here.  I also think though there's a plausible scenario in which VO's play, relative to the play of Quinn and JJP, makes it almost imperative for KA to resign him.  And that's one of the hard choices you're referring to.

 

57 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

VO's production is why I was alarmed about folks wanting to trade him this preseason or early on to make room for the kids. Kids are untrustworthy and inconsistent. JJP and Quinn have potential to be great, and they do things VO just doesn't do (transition the puck really well, create space on their own when they're feeling confident and 100% energy, JJP forechecks better, etc.). But they aren't scorers yet. VO might not be consistent, but what secondary scorer is consistent? When he's on, he's on.

VO is Peak-VO right now. He's in an ideal spot as a 3W and PP specialist where he's only going to get 15 minutes, but can always be a threat to score. He can get you 30 goals. To me, "Peak-Quinn" is maybe... Patrick Sharp. 25 goals and 40 assists. He's got the vision and ability to carry/distribute that VO doesn't. "Peak-JJP"... I don't know what he compares to. Just a super-consistent middle 6 guy who does everything. 20-30-50? The player I think actually replaces VO is Kulich. I think the trio of those JJP-Quinn-Kulich (on different lines) in two years compared to JJP-Quinn-VO today will be an incredible improvement, even if Kulich doesn't really ever exceed VO's goal totals. (But I think Kulich can match them a few times.)

What intrigues me the most is... do the Sabres get to the playoffs this season or next, and if they do, how does VO's game look when the tenacity and intensity ramp up? There will always be seams and zone breakdowns and forgotten guys even in the most ferocious playoff series. But will VO be able to find them? And if he can't do it this season, can he be moved for a 2nd next deadline for a different type of role player more suited for the playoffs for us? And if they don't make the playoffs this season, but are in great shape next season and VO is a big reason why, you don't dare move him heading into the playoffs, even if his game might not translate to the second season.

Overall, though, I think this is a good problem to have.

Good stuff here too.  I agree that JJP and Quinn have more well-rounded games and probably higher ceilings than VO does, and that JJP and Quinn haven't reached those ceilings yet, while VO is likely now reaching his. 

Still, JJP or Quinn (or both of them) might never reach his ceiling, and we could be looking at a perennial 30-goal guy in VO, with peaks closer to 40, for the next 5 years -- which is the period when the Sabres are going to be taking their shot at a Cup and hopefully perennial contender status.  (I haven't seen Kulich other than highlights so don't want to credit him with being at the same level as JJP and Quinn, which is a very good level.)

I also agree that if the Sabres make the playoffs, the game VO shows KA will likely be a major factor in KA's thinking.  If he can't handle the furnace, it will make it easier for KA to trade him at the deadline next year.  (It would seem nuts to let him walk in FA if he's working on his second 30-goal season.)  But he might pour in a bunch of goals down the stretch, help them make the playoffs and then play pretty well once they get there -- while Quinn and JJP look overwhelmed.  What then?

There's the good problem to have you mentioned.

[Night Train]

Reading that the Sabres have 41 Mil + in cap space which is tops in the NHL.  I get they have to spend some but wish to save some for upcoming contracts for our developing youth.  I don't currently see a difference maker to throw big $$ at. JMO. 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I personally think Quinn will replace Olofssons scoring. 

Not this season or the next. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

6 minutes ago, Night Train said:

Reading that the Sabres have 41 Mil + in cap space which is tops in the NHL.  I get they have to spend some but wish to save some for upcoming contracts for our developing youth.  I don't currently see a difference maker to throw big $$ at. JMO. 

Welcome !!

Where did you see the $41M+ in cap sapce?

That maybe current, but we are only half way through the season.

The Sabres are around $20M in projected season end cap space based on all things being equal until the end of the season.

I think that's right, but I am not a capologist.

[DarthEbriate]

12 minutes ago, Night Train said:

Reading that the Sabres have 41 Mil + in cap space which is tops in the NHL.  I get they have to spend some but wish to save some for upcoming contracts for our developing youth.  I don't currently see a difference maker to throw big $$ at. JMO. 

Welcome to the 'Space!

[DarthEbriate]

15 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I also agree that if the Sabres make the playoffs, the game VO shows KA will likely be a major factor in KA's thinking.  If he can't handle the furnace, it will make it easier for KA to trade him at the deadline next year.  (It would seem nuts to let him walk in FA if he's working on his second 30-goal season.)  But he might pour in a bunch of goals down the stretch, help them make the playoffs and then play pretty well once they get there -- while Quinn and JJP look overwhelmed.  What then?

There's the good problem to have you mentioned.

You can't trade him if he's helping carry you to the playoffs. It happens all the time. You've got to be willing to let him walk, get his $6M+ into his 30s, and have the next guy step up to replace his production.

[Taro T]

22 minutes ago, Night Train said:

Reading that the Sabres have 41 Mil + in cap space which is tops in the NHL.  I get they have to spend some but wish to save some for upcoming contracts for our developing youth.  I don't currently see a difference maker to throw big $$ at. JMO. 

The Sabres are currently projected to end the year w/ ~$18MM in cap space.  (Their current salary liabilities would end up cost ~$64MM over the full season w/ no significant roster moves.)  So, since just over 1/2 of players salaries have been earned/paid out, they could bring in contracts worth just over double that on their faces at this point & still stay under the cap.  That's how they have "$41MM" in cap space.

BTW, welcome to the board.

Edited January 26, 2023 by Taro T

[nfreeman]

31 minutes ago, Night Train said:

Reading that the Sabres have 41 Mil + in cap space which is tops in the NHL.  I get they have to spend some but wish to save some for upcoming contracts for our developing youth.  I don't currently see a difference maker to throw big $$ at. JMO. 

Welcome!

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I personally think Quinn will replace Olofssons scoring. 

I believe Savoie will take VO’s spot in the lineup.

Edited January 26, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

And Savoie will replace Quinns.

I don't follow you. Are you saying Savoie will be better than Quinn?

[dudacek]

33 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

 

I also agree that if the Sabres make the playoffs, the game VO shows KA will likely be a major factor in KA's thinking.  If he can't handle the furnace, it will make it easier for KA to trade him at the deadline next year.  (It would seem nuts to let him walk in FA if he's working on his second 30-goal season.)  But he might pour in a bunch of goals down the stretch, help them make the playoffs and then play pretty well once they get there -- while Quinn and JJP look overwhelmed.  What then?

There's the good problem to have you mentioned.

This is why I said at the time he signed it that Olofsson’s contract makes it highly likely he gets traded either at this deadline, or at the draft. You don’t give a guy that close to UFA 2 years if you are planning on keeping him around.

That was when it seemed more likely that the Sabres would be outside the playoff race this spring and a relatively cheap sniper (the Sabres could even retain) with term could garner a good return that you could use along with your cap space on a bigger piece (say a Timo Meier or a Patrick Kane). Whereas, you’d be more likely to keep him and risk him walking in the second year when you fully expect to be in the race.

The Sabres being in the race this year has changed the ground rules.

The plan has certainly seemed to be identify your core, prioritize committing your cap space to them over term, and keep your assets and options open elsewhere.

I guess this makes Adams decision making process tougher, but it’s filed under the heading of “good problem to have”.

For what it’s worth, VO recently told the Buffalo News staying long-term in Buffalo has always been his priority.

I guess considering extending him this summer is another item on Kevyn’s to-do list.

 

[Thorner]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

This is why I said at the time he signed it that Olofsson’s contract makes it highly likely he gets traded either at this deadline, or at the draft. You don’t give a guy that close to UFA 2 years if you are planning on keeping him around.

That was when it seemed more likely that the Sabres would be outside the playoff race this spring and a relatively cheap sniper (the Sabres could even retain) with term could garner a good return that you could use along with your cap space on a bigger piece (say a Timo Meier or a Patrick Kane). Whereas, you’d be more likely to keep him and risk him walking in the second year when you fully expect to be in the race.

The Sabres being in the race this year has changed the ground rules.

The plan has certainly seemed to be identify your core, prioritize committing your cap space to them over term, and keep your assets and options open elsewhere.

I guess this makes Adams decision making process tougher, but it’s filed under the heading of “good problem to have”.

For what it’s worth, VO recently told the Buffalo News staying long-term in Buffalo has always been his priority.

I guess considering extending him this summer is another item on Kevyn’s to-do list.

 

To something @inkmansaid, perhaps the only scenario I can see under which they let VO “walk” is if he’s kept next deadline, while no extension has been reached, under the prism of him being our “own rental” for the playoff run next season we are hypothetically gearing up for at that time 

[Taro T]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

This is why I said at the time he signed it that Olofsson’s contract makes it highly likely he gets traded either at this deadline, or at the draft. You don’t give a guy that close to UFA 2 years if you are planning on keeping him around.

That was when it seemed more likely that the Sabres would be outside the playoff race this spring and a relatively cheap sniper (the Sabres could even retain) with term could garner a good return that you could use along with your cap space on a bigger piece (say a Timo Meier or a Patrick Kane). Whereas, you’d be more likely to keep him and risk him walking in the second year when you fully expect to be in the race.

The Sabres being in the race this year has changed the ground rules.

The plan has certainly seemed to be identify your core, prioritize committing your cap space to them over term, and keep your assets and options open elsewhere.

I guess this makes Adams decision making process tougher, but it’s filed under the heading of “good problem to have”.

For what it’s worth, VO recently told the Buffalo News staying long-term in Buffalo has always been his priority.

I guess considering extending him this summer is another item on Kevyn’s to-do list.

 

It seems they ALL want to stay which is nice but the reality of pro sports is it doesn't happen often & the rare times it does, it doesn't last for long.

It's going to be real important for Adams to not give out many NTCs & mNTCs.  Reality is after next season some of them will have to be moved out.  Maybe sooner, but doubt any but Anderson, Hinostroza & Amerks move.  Asplund is a different case as he might prefer to have an opportunity to play that may not be available here.