Krebs needs more time in AHL

[jad1]

19 minutes ago, Curt said:

I don’t understand what you are trying to say here.

You asked if someone who's highest season goal total is 20 can be a 30 goal scorer.

My response, using Thompson as an example, was yes, a player can become a 30 goal scorer when their previous career season high was 20 goals (or less).

Tuch is a player who many would acknowledge can be a 30 goal scorer, even through his career season high is just over 20 goals.  

 

 

[DarthEbriate]

Re: VO. For VO (or any middle-6 winger on any roster in the league who has shuffling linemates or an inexperienced center, or plays fewer minutes, etc.) the consistency won't always be there. Would we be happier if he were more consistent, or not had a bum wrist/hand for 1/3 of the season last year, and was more physical? Sally Struthers says: "Sure, we all do!" Will Quinn take his place in the top 6 (yes, he should, and just did it appears if the Cozens line keeps playing well), and that's good because Quinn is a 1st round talent and VO was a 7th with a laser blaster. VO absolutely needs someone on his line to carry the puck and do the transition work for him.

But one thing we all need to remember the past 2 seasons: when Goalofsson scores -- this team wins. Some players can rack up points during losses. VO... not so much. And no, it's not just empty-netters. It's game-winners and rally-starters (i.e., the big comeback vs. Chicago last season).

Splits courtesy of hockey-reference.com (and note: only 29 wins are tallied last season, so there must be 3 shootout wins in there that got counted as ties in the Splits breakdown)

2021-22: In 29 wins -- 34 points (14-20-34); in 43 losses/"ties" -- 15 points

this year: In 9 wins -- 10 points (9-1-10); in 11 losses -- 2 points

[Taro T]

22 minutes ago, Curt said:

I don’t understand what you are trying to say here.

Pretty sure they're giving you flack for poorly wording your Q.  It seems you meant to ask 'if somebody has only scored 20 can they still be called a 30 goal scorer' but you actually asked if they can become a 30 goal scorer.  The answer to the 1st is 'no' except arguably in extreme circumstances such as a season cut significantly short.  The answer to the 2nd is 'of course.'  Happens often as players mature.

[Hank]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I'll put the over under for olofsson at 22.5 goals and I'll take the under. 

I think you know I'm not a fan of Olofsson, but I have to admit I'm a bit surprised to see you so down on him. Pleasantly surprised, but surprised nonetheless. 

[DarthEbriate]

Back on thread target. The Jost pickup didn't and still doesn't wow me -- ask me again sometime (after the initial shine wears off in another 10 games).

What Jost does do though, is build a redundancy of Mitts/Jost/Krebs. Center/wingers who could be on the PP half-wall trying to feed Tage/VO/Quinn or be PKers. You don't need all 3 dressed with a similar skill set. Jost is the furthest along in progression and might be the most stable this season. Jost is who Mitts is in a another season (Jost has 150 more games played) and who Krebs could end up being in another few years.

And that might mean Krebs goes to Rochester while he's still eligible (as opposed to waiving Jost when Okposo returns).

The plus side to Jost is that the league has been filled by 1st rounders who never met the "top 6" expectations with their first team, then found their game and a niche, and contributed for years on teams on the 3rd line or lower. Dan Paille, Tim Connolly, Curtis Lazar, Erik Rasmussen, Joel Armia, even the Concept of Kassian. Maybe he's our Paille.

[LGR4GM]

29 minutes ago, Hank said:

I think you know I'm not a fan of Olofsson, but I have to admit I'm a bit surprised to see you so down on him. Pleasantly surprised, but surprised nonetheless. 

When I watched olofsson back check by getting to within a sticks length of the forward and feebly stick checking while stopping skating only to have the ensuing goal against thankfully disallowed, I knew in that moment. 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Of course. It happens often   Reinhart ranged from 17 to 25 his first 6 seasons and then hit 33 last year. TNT had 18 goals for his career for 4 partial seasons  before potting 38 last year.

You are misunderstanding my post.  I probably worded it poorly.  That’s my fault.

It was in response to a post that referenced to Olofsson as a 30 goal scorer.  I took issue with referring to someone who has never scored 30 goals, as a 30 goal scorer.

@jad1 This applies for you as well.

Edited November 25, 2022 by Curt

[GASabresIUFAN]

18 minutes ago, Curt said:

You are misunderstanding my post.  I probably worded it poorly.  That’s my fault.

It was in response to a post that referenced to Olofsson as a 30 goal scorer.  I took issue with referring to someone who has never scored 30 goals, as a 30 goal scorer.

@jad1 This applies for you as well.

I’m in full agreement that he can and probably will score 30 this season.  He has 10 goals in 20 games ytd. He scores on average about 1 goal for every 3 games for his career.  With 62 games left, assuming good health, he should score the 20 needed to reach that plateau even if he sinks back to his career average. The real question is will he be here to at season’s end or could he garner a 1st rd pick at the deadline?

Back on topic for a minute.  If this is only a developmental year, put Krebs on Mitt’s wing and leave him there all season and coach him up.  Otherwise, send him down, let him find his confidence dominating inferior talent and then recall him after the trade deadline (if he isn’t traded) and see if can carry that confidence to better play down the stretch.  Also put him on a weight program over the summer so that he isn’t so easy to knock off the puck.

[Thorner]

6 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Re: VO. For VO (or any middle-6 winger on any roster in the league who has shuffling linemates or an inexperienced center, or plays fewer minutes, etc.) the consistency won't always be there. Would we be happier if he were more consistent, or not had a bum wrist/hand for 1/3 of the season last year, and was more physical? Sally Struthers says: "Sure, we all do!" Will Quinn take his place in the top 6 (yes, he should, and just did it appears if the Cozens line keeps playing well), and that's good because Quinn is a 1st round talent and VO was a 7th with a laser blaster. VO absolutely needs someone on his line to carry the puck and do the transition work for him.

But one thing we all need to remember the past 2 seasons: when Goalofsson scores -- this team wins. Some players can rack up points during losses. VO... not so much. And no, it's not just empty-netters. It's game-winners and rally-starters (i.e., the big comeback vs. Chicago last season).

Splits courtesy of hockey-reference.com (and note: only 29 wins are tallied last season, so there must be 3 shootout wins in there that got counted as ties in the Splits breakdown)

2021-22: In 29 wins -- 34 points (14-20-34); in 43 losses/"ties" -- 15 points

this year: In 9 wins -- 10 points (9-1-10); in 11 losses -- 2 points

Good post. Last I checked he was among our leaders in assists the last few years, even though only goals get mentioned when it comes to VO (Sometimes this forum gives off the impression it only cares about goals, tbh). He’s definitely pidgeon holed. Advanced metrics don’t look great but they are only part of the story. There may come a day when we have no room for him and his likely 30 odd goal production but today is not that day

Edited November 25, 2022 by Thorny

[Thorner]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’m in full agreement that he can and probably will score 30 this season.  He has 10 goals in 20 games ytd. He scores on average about 1 goal for every 3 games for his career.  With 62 games left, assuming good health, he should score the 20 needed to reach that plateau even if he sinks back to his career average. The real question is will he be here to at season’s end or could he garner a 1st rd pick at the deadline?

Back on topic for a minute.  If this is only a developmental year, put Krebs on Mitt’s wing and leave him there all season and coach him up.  Otherwise, send him down, let him find his confidence dominating inferior talent and then recall him after the trade deadline (if he isn’t traded) and see if can carry that confidence to better play down the stretch.  Also put him on a weight program over the summer so that he isn’t so easy to knock off the puck.

Chances of a 1st developing into a player as good as Olofsson is >50%. Never mind the timeline consideration. 
 

Hockey trade is a good option if we hate his D but how about for a d man or a defensive forward 

Edited November 25, 2022 by Thorny