Why is it Different This Time?

[Taro T]

18 minutes ago, In The Buff said:

Was a nice post Taro, i'll just reply to the last part. Can you imagine if Andy loses any time? I'm getting flashbacks to last year of scrambling to find a goalie to dress.

The fact that its even a possibility... again, has to be considered a failure on Adams' part to address the position in an appropriate/significant way.

Last year one couldve said it was bad luck or a culmination of bad events. There's no such excuse this year.

I understand the reasons we give for why the decision was made to go with Comrie & Co this year, there's just too much 'hope' involved with both, where if i were GM i'd want something more dependable & proven. We hope Comrie's previous small sample size carries into a full season or that he can handle that. And we hope Anderson's body doesnt fall apart out there, but its at least probable it will.

Im not putting our woes on the goaltending tho as the main issues ive seen stem from just lousy play in front of whoever is in net. Letting forwards skate free, too many oddman rushes against, players out of position, bad passing or giveaways etc. Our margin for error is so low as we have to play near our best everynight it seems to be in a position for a win. We depend on clutch saves to keep us in games when the play breaks down & thats where having an above average goalie helps. Something we haven't had since Miller & before that Hasek.

There is 1 common thread between our 2 previous playoff teams, if only we could figure it out lol.

Definitely wanted 1 more NHL caliber goalie brought in (and 1 more Lyubushkinesque guy brought in on D) because wanted somebody better & more likely to make it through the season than Anderson.  But believed there was a very real chance that Comrie would play the entire year.  He doesn't seem to make really large difficult movements and he routinely covers the bottom of the net w/out seemingly straining so there weren't any injuries waiting to happen w/in his game.  You can't expect your best D-man to do something you'd expect from a Ristolainen or Zadorov to knock him out for weeks.

Am looking forward to Levi's brief stint in a Sabres ini this season and hoping for the minor miracle where he demonstrates he belongs in the NHL.  

And the next few weeks might show Portillo he has a window to the NHL in this organization as well.  Comrie is only under contract 1 more year.

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, bunomatic said:

Too many rookies. KAs plan is flawed. None of these players or very few know how to win in this league and I’d throw the coach in that category too. 4 rookies and how many 2nd year. Its a flawed approach.

i agree here.  It’s boys vs men most nights
 

A week ago I thought they should bring in Toews.  
he can win face offs and has experience winning.  Would be a good fit for young Sabres.  
Not sure what Chicago’s price would be or if you would even come to Buffalo at this stage   
im good with the Cozens, JJ and Quinn line  you can have one prospects line   The line of Mitts, Olofsson and Vinnie need to step up,they are vets and need to produce 

I’m still really confident that the big issue is D - beyond Lyubushkin, Dahlin, Samuelsson and PoweR  

Still think Schenn is the best option  (price wise)

Oh and goaltending has to be a lot more consistent 

 

Edited November 20, 2022 by Crusader1969

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, Crusader1969 said:

A week ago I thought they should bring in Toews.  
he can win face offs and has experience winning.  Would be a good fit for young Sabres.  
Not sure what Chicago’s price would be or if you would even come to Buffalo at this stage   
im good with the Cozens, JJ and Quinn line  you can have one prospects line   The line of Mitts, Olofsson and Vinnie need to step up,they are vets and need to produce 

I’m still really confident that the big issue is D - beyond Lyubushkin, Dahlin, Samuelsson and PoweR  

Still think Schenn is the best option  (price wise)

Oh and goaltending has to be a lot more consistent 

 

A big part of the D issue is Lyubushkin slid a little after blocking that shot & then has looked noticeably even worse since that extended board battle against Pittsburgh (?).  He's been slow & getting knocked off the puck since then & has been as bad as, if not worse than, the little 3.

Throw in the F's not really knowing where to be in the D-zone far too often & the D isn't going to be good.

And STILL hope they shutdown Buusch for about a week when Samuelsson is back.  Having 4 good D plus Jokiharju would be so much better than just having 2-3 + Henri.

[Stoner]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Being one of the ones that was saying THIS one seemed different, will answer.

1. When healthy (& realize nobody stays healthy) they actually have NHLers not dressing at F and arguably at D.  (Though w/ absolutely no depth in G).  That hasn't been the case since Regier uttered the word suffering.

2. They have NHL caliber goaltending.  Again, with the caveat when healthy.  Realize the analytics crew says Comrie is hot death but really doubt they include account for all the goals Power & others have scored on him.  While it is a different style - he's pretty much Ullmark.  (But Ullmark's great this year & Comrie sucks.  On paper, yes, but Ullmark is in his 2nd year w/ a defensively sound squad in front of him & Comrie is in his 1st year w/ a team that STILL doesn't appear to work on defensive play in practice.  Those make huge differences.)  Comrie doesn't give up ANYTHING on the ice.  That's how we knew he was injured and not just hurt, he never gives up goals along the ice.  His glove is merely average, but it isn't bad IMHO.  Anderson looked good before playing in 3 straight.  Not great, good.  And he likely could last the full year if he could stay at 1 out of 4 games.

3.  They haven't stopped playing after going down a goal or 2.  Unlike when they were coached by Krueger, they weren't giving up.

4.  Dahlin was playing up to the hype with Samuelsson.  He's still playing well but having a very good partner lets him just play.  And Samuelsson is close to coming back which means Norris finalist Dahlin is close to being back.

5.  These guys are a team.  They aren't a collection of cliques wearing the same thing 82 times/ year.  That matters when you're learning to win.  Not so much when you've figured it out.

6.  The young mid-level guys that are expected to be counted on are better this year than they were.  Cozens, Mittelstadt, Asplund, Samuelsson all are better than last year.

7.  Prior to Okposo getting injured, they'd only played 2 bad games out of 12.  And 1 of those was the last game of a road trip the 1st game without their best defensive D-man.  That was way better than in recent years prior to last year's finish.  Even when they were winning in October's past, they were getting outplayed.  That wasn't the case this year.

But in these past 4 or so games, there have been 2 major injury situations which could let this be just the same as usual.  1. The loss of Okposo & Girgensons hurts.  The team has looked frailer since Kyle has been out.  He's too old to lead by on-ice production but he does seem to have a calming influence when things could start going sideways.  Girgensons seems to help there too, but Kyle seems to be the key on the leadership side.

And 2.  The big one - losing Comrie sucks.  UPL isn't a good NHL goalie.  They can't ride him like Eric which means Andy will be called on too often.  Am very concerned that he'll be injured soon too playing too often.

Still expect them to get back to playing around an NHL playoff pace once Comrie & Muel are back, but not expecting it until they both are back.

Admirable that you own yet another terrible preseason prediction. Are you really doubling down? The Sabres will get back to a 96ish point pace? Or do you mean starting from scratch once the two saviors return?

[mjd1001]

15 hours ago, SwampD said:

I have heard over and over that it is different this time. They are doing it the right way, finally. I even believed it for a tick,…

…and I still kinda do, but I need convincing. Everyone I see looks completely average (which is actually kind of a step up.) I know that they are REALLY young and if on an actual NHL franchise, most of them would still be in the AHL, but this is where we are.

Why is it different this time?
Who are the players that are going to push us into being an actual NHL team competing in the playoffs?
What is it that you see in them that makes you think they are special?

 

This sucks.

They have young players/high draft picks, numerous ones, that they are giving ice time to.  Look at New Jersey, Hughes and Hischier. They were high draft picks, they played them right away and they were bad for a couple years but they stuck to it.  Buffalo is trying the same thing with their young guys.  Krebs, Quinn, Peterka, even still Cozens up front, and Samuelsson and Power on the back line. They ALL have talent, but they all are very young and are going to make a lot of critical mistakes if you 'throw them in the fire'.  If you want that development path, you are not going to be as good as you want for a year or two while doing that.

NJ decided to focus their team around those two guys (Hughes and Hirchier) and this is they year they have veterans surrounding them and they are playing great all around games.  Hischier has 317 career games played already, Hughes has 184.  By comparison, Cozens has 138, Power 26, Peterka 20, Quinn 15, Krebs 77.  They may not 'get it' until games 150-200.

For Dahlin, it took him on the back end to get to about game 250 in his career before things really started to click. For power, they are committed to playing him, but what if he keeps making mistakes that cost chances (and games) for the next 2-3 years. It is possible, but the Sabres have made no statement or showed any sign that says they are going to do anything but that with their young players.

That's all I got.

Edited November 20, 2022 by mjd1001

[sabremike]

Just now, mjd1001 said:

They have young players/high draft picks, numerous ones, that they are giving ice time to.  Look at New Jersey, Hughes and Hischier. They were high draft picks, they played them right away and they were bad for a couple years but they stuck to it.  Buffalo is trying the same thing with their young guys.  Krebs, Quinn, Peterka, even still Cozens up front, and Samuelsson and Power on the back line. They ALL have talent, but they all are very young and are going to make a lot of critical mistakes if you 'throw them in the fire'.  If you want that development path, you are not going to be as good as you want for a year or two while doing that.

That's all I got.

Those two were 1OA picks so the learning curve is going to be different. Throwing guys out to get crushed and eaten alive on a nightly basis by actual NHL players is the exact opposite of development. Putting guys in a position where they are totally out of their depth is a surefire path to failure. We literally have a team in Rochester whose entire purpose is developing players and that's where a lot of these guys belong because they just aren't ready to play in the NHL.

[Refuting]

17 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Admirable that you own yet another terrible preseason prediction. Are you really doubling down? The Sabres will get back to a 96ish point pace? Or do you mean starting from scratch once the two saviors return?

LOL 

[mjd1001]

Just now, sabremike said:

Those two were 1OA picks so the learning curve is going to be different. Throwing guys out to get crushed and eaten alive on a nightly basis by actual NHL players is the exact opposite of development. Putting guys in a position where they are totally out of their depth is a surefire path to failure. We literally have a team in Rochester whose entire purpose is developing players and that's where a lot of these guys belong because they just aren't ready to play in the NHL.

Krebs is the ony one of the young guys I can see sending down because he has played awful this year from game 1. Just awful in about every way I have seen. The other guys, they have shown flashes (or more than flashed) that they can 'keep up' with the NHL game and produce.  I think Sabres management might think the fine tuning of their game might be best served by 'learning from mistakes' on the big club.  Krebs is the only one that seems ovematched in every aspect of the game at this moment.

Cozens is a good example. He isn't going down to Rochester, but his problem now is knowing what he can and can't get away with...knowing when he has to stay in position vs not.  Sending someone down like Cozens would have the opposite effect. He might 'get away' with more in Rochester, when the exact lesson he needs to learn is he can't get away with certain things that he did at a lower level.

[sabremike]

5 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Krebs is the ony one of the young guys I can see sending down because he has played awful this year from game 1. Just awful in about every way I have seen. The other guys, they have shown flashes (or more than flashed) that they can 'keep up' with the NHL game and produce.  I think Sabres management might think the fine tuning of their game might be best served by 'learning from mistakes' on the big club.  Krebs is the only one that seems ovematched in every aspect of the game at this moment.

Cozens is a good example. He isn't going down to Rochester, but his problem now is knowing what he can and can't get away with...knowing when he has to stay in position vs not.  Sending someone down like Cozens would have the opposite effect. He might 'get away' with more in Rochester, when the exact lesson he needs to learn is he can't get away with certain things that he did at a lower level.

Cozens has been one of our most effective players. All those other guys are faring real badly which is why we are about to lose 10 games in a row with many more losses not out of the question. Giving guys spots without making them earn it was and is a terrible idea and this is generally the result.

[mjd1001]

1 minute ago, sabremike said:

Cozens has been one of our most effective players. All those other guys are faring real badly which is why we are about to lose 10 games in a row with many more losses not out of the question. Giving guys spots without making them earn it was and is a terrible idea and this is generally the result.

I disagree with Cozens being effective. This year he has taken a step back.  I have posted this many times, but look at the goals the Sabres have allowed when he has been on the ice. He is out of postion A LOT.  He is full speed ahead chasing the puck.  Watching replays (and him live sometimes) it amazes me he is allowed to get away with it. In the offensive zone, the puck will go behind the net where a Sabres winger already is there, and he will crash the boards behind the play, sometimes on the verge of fighting his own player for the puck. I have seen 1 or 2 examples this year where he did that (instead of maintaining his orginal spot in front of the net) where the winger does gain possession and if Cozens would be in front of the net it would be an easy pass to him but he just chases the puck.

In the D-zone it is worse.  Watch Mitts and Thompson in the D-zone when they play center.  They let the D-men (and wingers) dig the puck out and they cover the slot.  Cozens on 3 or 4 goals aready allowed this year just flies behind his own net, leaving the slot WIDE open where the eventual goal scorer eventually gaines a pass and is one on one with the goalie for the eventual goal.  

He is aggressive, he is somewhat physical, and he does have skill, but he often times this year is hurting the team more than helps it becasue it seems he just don't play any kind of system like the rest of the forwards, he just goes full speed after the puck and that is his only focus.

[Taro T]

32 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Admirable that you own yet another terrible preseason prediction. Are you really doubling down? The Sabres will get back to a 96ish point pace? Or do you mean starting from scratch once the two saviors return?

Read what was written and compare it to the preseason post you apparently have bookmarked.  You will get your answer.

Btw, wtf does the post you are quoting have to do w/ preseason predictions?  Was saying this one felt different before the Bruins & Nucks games.  Would expect a fan that hangs on every post to realize that.  You might lose the presidency of the fan club if you keep making rookie mistakes like that.  

[sabremike]

6 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I disagree with Cozens being effective. This year he has taken a step back.  I have posted this many times, but look at the goals the Sabres have allowed when he has been on the ice. He is out of postion A LOT.  He is full speed ahead chasing the puck.  Watching replays (and him live sometimes) it amazes me he is allowed to get away with it. In the offensive zone, the puck will go behind the net where a Sabres winger already is there, and he will crash the boards behind the play, sometimes on the verge of fighting his own player for the puck. I have seen 1 or 2 examples this year where he did that (instead of maintaining his orginal spot in front of the net) where the winger does gain possession and if Cozens would be in front of the net it would be an easy pass to him but he just chases the puck.

In the D-zone it is worse.  Watch Mitts and Thompson in the D-zone when they play center.  They let the D-men (and wingers) dig the puck out and they cover the slot.  Cozens on 3 or 4 goals aready allowed this year just flies behind his own net, leaving the slot WIDE open where the eventual goal scorer eventually gaines a pass and is one on one with the goalie for the eventual goal.  

He is aggressive, he is somewhat physical, and he does have skill, but he often times this year is hurting the team more than helps it becasue it seems he just don't play any kind of system like the rest of the forwards, he just goes full speed after the puck and that is his only focus.

You just described our entire system with that last sentence.

[mjd1001]

Just now, sabremike said:

You just described our entire system with that last sentence.

As I mentioned earlier in the post, Mitts and Thompson are a lot different in that way than Cozens.  When playing center, they cover the slot in both zones much, much better than Cozens, and Cozens is out of position more than both of the others combined.

[sabremike]

Just now, mjd1001 said:

As I mentioned earlier in the post, Mitts and Thompson are a lot different in that way than Cozens.  When playing center, they cover the slot in both zones much, much better than Cozens, and Cozens is out of position more than both of the others combined.

Thompson is going to be an all star who interestingly enough should be the cautionary tale about trying to force someone out of their depth at this level. If he had been handled correctly the breakout likely happens a few years earlier.

[mjd1001]

1 minute ago, sabremike said:

Thompson is going to be an all star who interestingly enough should be the cautionary tale about trying to force someone out of their depth at this level. If he had been handled correctly the breakout likely happens a few years earlier.

I'm hoping Cozens is a very good/excellent foward. He is closer than Krebs, Peterka and Quinn.  I'm just slightly frustrated watching him because I think his over-agressive and out-of-position play are easily correctible. I'm just waiting for him to do it.

[Thorner]

6 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

 

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

Being one of the ones that was saying THIS one seemed different, will answer.

SNIP

Still expect them to get back to playing around an NHL playoff pace once Comrie & Muel are back, but not expecting it until they both are back.

Unless Samuelsson is the MVP of the league, with greater impacts than McDavid, I don't think he takes this team from bottom of the barrel to top half of the league, I found this last sentence rather striking. Seems incredibly wishful. Hope so, though. Just wanted to touch on that before addressing the bold:

It's funny and kinda sad what the team does to the fans in this way, I am in the same boat: we defend and tout the team when they get off to these fast starts to those "outside the world of Sabrespace", and then when the team inevitably lets us down, we fans are forced to pick up the burden and explain things away for them haha

They do ask a lot of heaving lifting of the fans, and have asked us loyal ones to carry the burden for altogether too long

 

[Thorner]

On 11/20/2022 at 11:05 AM, SwampD said:

So, is everyone trying to convince me, or themselves? Cuz all I hear is platitudes.

Nothing said so far differentiates this team from any other team in the NHL.

This sucks.

When the slow build continues after this season, giving Adams the 4th year Botts and Murray both didn't get, one difference will be made solid. 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Thorny

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Unless Samuelsson is the MVP of the league, with greater impacts than McDavid, I don't think he takes this team from bottom of the barrel to top half of the league, I found this last sentence rather striking. Seems incredibly wishful. Hope so, though. Just wanted to touch on that before addressing the bold:

It's funny and kinda sad what the team does to the fans in this way, I am in the same boat: we defend and tout the team when they get off to these fast starts to those "outside the world of Sabrespace", and then when the team inevitably lets us down, we fans are forced to pick up the burden and explain things away for them haha

They do ask a lot of heaving lifting of the fans, and have asked us loyal ones to carry the burden for altogether too long

 

Am not saying they'll get to 98 points.  (Have never gone there, regardless of what the old man from Pennsyltucky misremembers.)  But, if Comrie were still available rather than UPL, they can still generally win 3 out of 5 moving forward once they finally get the monkey off their backs. 

[Thorner]

Just now, Taro T said:

Am not saying they'll get to 98 points.  (Have never gone there, regardless of what the old man from Pennsyltucky misremembers.)  But, if Comrie were still available rather than UPL, they can still generally win 3 out of 5 moving forward once they finally get the monkey off their backs. 

(emoji was for pennsyltucky)

Comrie hasn't shown anything above average backup statistically, so I personally won't count on any improvement based on what he can provide. That move can only so far be classified as a miss from Adams, considering, to a man, we said we were looking for him to take on a starters load

[Thorner]

His counting stats are bad, his advanced metrics are *terrible*. he doesn't win. 

Yes, he's had a few bad bounces. Considering I was worried, and talked endlessly, too much, probably annoyingly so, about Comrie in the offseason, you know those sentences that just seem to keep going on and on for no reason seemingly rambling on incessantly forever because I am trying to remember what if anything I am trying to say, you know the ones that just keep going on and on and on, about his sample size being WAY too small to bet on?

Early results wouldn't dissuade me from that when the early results have not been good. It's tough to bet on bounces when the overall numbers are telling us what seemed to be predictable. 

"Dude that hasn't been able to become a starter by age 27 still fails to become starter" isn't much of a headline 

Edited November 20, 2022 by Thorny

[Taro T]

16 minutes ago, Thorny said:

(emoji was for pennsyltucky)

Comrie hasn't shown anything above average backup statistically, so I personally won't count on any improvement based on what he can provide. That move can only so far be classified as a miss from Adams, considering, to a man, we said we were looking for him to take on a starters load

Because Samuelsson coming back was integral to your post commenting on the OP didn't see the need to specifically state that the comment was post-Muel returning.  Guess it needed to be stated.

Ullmark was essentially an "average backup" until he got to his 2nd year w/ a good defensive team.  Expect Comrie is better than we've seen.  (And btw, know you know this so it isn't soecifically for your edification, wanted more GTing help than just Comrie; sothis isn't excusing away the lack of fully addressing GTing this offseason.)

Edited November 20, 2022 by Taro T

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

Because Samuelsson coming back was integral to your post commenting on the OP didn't see the need to specifically state that the comment was post-Muel returning.  Guess it needed to be stated.

Ullmark was essentially an "average backup" until he got to his 2nd year w/ a good defensive team.  Expect Comrie is better than we've seen.  (And btw, know you know this so it isn't soecifically for your edification, wanted more GTing help than just Comrie; sothis isn't excusing away the lack of fully addressing GTing this offseason.)

Disagree on Ullmark. 

@dudacekalways did a wonderful breakdown of why we were under-appreciating Linus and I won't even try to replicate it as well as he did. But it was clear Ullmark was quite good, not a backup. 

[Marvin]

30 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Unless Samuelsson is the MVP of the league, with greater impacts than McDavid, I don't think he takes this team from bottom of the barrel to top half of the league, I found this last sentence rather striking.

In and of himself, Samuelsson is not that valuable.  However, he complements Dahlin and makes Dahlin a lot better, drops Power to the second pair, lessens Power's responsibilities, gets Power a more complementary defencive partner, and pushes Bryson to the 3rd pair.  That is an enormous impact.

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Disagree on Ullmark. 

@dudacekalways did a wonderful breakdown of why we were under-appreciating Linus and I won't even try to replicate it as well as he did. But it was clear Ullmark was quite good, not a backup. 

JFC, am done w/ this discussion at least until the Nills game is over because you are discounting everything we've said over the past few years, and focusing on imprecise words said between plays.  Was ALWAYS high on Ullmark.  But most everybody bitched that he was just a backup.  Expect Comrie will turn out to be similar.