Advanced Stats Say Goaltending the Issue, Not Defense

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You have zero idea what these guys are worth.   None.  Mitts is on pace for a 45-50 pt season.  Giving his contract $ and cap hit, another year on his deal and RFA status, he could be worth as much as a 1st rd pick. Just because you and others have soured on him doesn’t mean other teams have.  Many teams are desperate for skill forwards just as we are for talent on D. 

Krebs has a ton of talent. So many teams would love to have a forward of his skill set, age (21), and talent in their system.  He could easily fetch a D prospect, much like the Nylander/Jokiharju deal.

Because we have a system loaded with other talented forwards like Savoie, Rosen, Kulich and Östlund, so many here are ready to move from other talented forwards who haven’t yet reached their potential or are struggling this season.  This is a huge luxury, but as we have seen with Tage, development isn’t a straight line.  Don’t be surprised if neither guy is moved this season or this off-season as the Sabres have contract  control on both players

Honestly, I’d move VO, play Krebs at center with Mitts on the wing and find a physical forward to forecheck and create space for them and see how the season plays out. That said, I do think neither player will be here beyond next season, but one never knows.  I thought Tage was a bust prior to last season.

I agree that there is no rush to make a decision and move on from Mitts or Krebs, but it is nuts to think that anyone would give the Sabres a first-rounder for Mitts.  I doubt they’d get a second for that matter.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I agree that there is no rush to make a decision and move on from Mitts or Krebs, but it is nuts to think that anyone would give the Sabres a first-rounder for Mitts.  I doubt they’d get a second for that matter.  

Let’s revisit if Mitts finishes this season with 45-50 pts.  You better believe if he finishes with 45-50 pts on a 2.5 mill contract and team control, that KA could get a 1st for him.  That said he finishes at that level, KA probably keeps him and the people here jump on the bandwagon.

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Let’s revisit if Mitts finishes this season with 45-50 pts.  You better believe if he finishes with 45-50 pts on a 2.5 mill contract and team control, that KA could get a 1st for him.  That said he finishes at that level, KA probably keeps him and the people here jump on the bandwagon.

Chances for a first? The Blutarsky.  Zero point zero.  The last 24-year-old with a reasonable AAV to garner a first round pick in return was Kapanen in a 2020 Toronto/Pittsburgh trade.  KK had consecutive seasons of 40 points seasons with a positive corsi and plus/minus.  He also had 39 Even strength points.  Mitts has   3 even strength points.  That projects to 11, and that’s IF he can play a full season.  Which he has yet to prove.  He’s a negative Corsi guy who is weak on the puck in both zones. His comparable is somewhere between Kapanen and Milano,  who didn’t receive a QO from the Ducks.  Closer to Santino.  You’ve always had a bias for this player.  Made clear by the tone in your response to John.  Followed by the inkling that he hits 50 points this season.  By the way, he said he had little value, not zero.  But he certainly could, if they hold for one more year. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

You seem to have forgotten Christian Dvorak went for a 1st & a 2nd last year and he has never reached 40 pts in a season.  Also the Kapenan deal  7 players and picks.  
Odds are if Mitts gets traded it will be in a larger deal involving players picks and prospects to make the cap considerations and valuations work.  Harrington even brought up his name in a proposed Chychrun deal. 

Admittedly Mitts is struggling this season in both ends 5 on 5.  The question is are all those numbers on him, or because of poor line mates or poor defense/goaltending or poor coaching usage or some combo of all 4?  I do think he has played to much perimeter hockey ytd and I’d like to see him drive more to the net.  He isn’t a small player and should go to the dirty areas.  I also think his line in general needs to be more physically assertive.  As I’ve said before, I’d like to see DG add Z to the line to add more physicality and north/south play to the line.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You seem to have forgotten Christian Dvorak went for a 1st & a 2nd last year and he has never reached 40 pts in a season.  Also the Kapenan deal  7 players and picks.  
Odds are if Mitts gets traded it will be in a larger deal involving players picks and prospects to make the cap considerations and valuations work.  Harrington even brought up his name in a proposed Chychrun deal. 

Admittedly Mitts is struggling this season in both ends 5 on 5.  The question is are all those numbers on him, or because of poor line mates or poor defense/goaltending or poor coaching usage or some combo of all 4?  I do think he has played to much perimeter hockey ytd and I’d like to see him drive more to the net.  He isn’t a small player and should go to the dirty areas.  I also think his line in general needs to be more physically assertive.  As I’ve said before, I’d like to see DG add Z to the line to add more physicality and north/south play to the line.

He can't drive a line and doesn't process the same fast enough. He's not particularly dynamic as a skater and he loses a lot of battles. Giving him better linemates is just dragging others down to prop him up. Mitts on ice vision isn't particularly good either. It's time to move on imo.

[JohnC]

12 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You have zero idea what these guys are worth.   None.  Mitts is on pace for a 45-50 pt season.  Giving his contract $ and cap hit, another year on his deal and RFA status, he could be worth as much as a 1st rd pick. Just because you and others have soured on him doesn’t mean other teams have.  Many teams are desperate for skill forwards just as we are for talent on D. 

Krebs has a ton of talent. So many teams would love to have a forward of his skill set, age (21), and talent in their system.  He could easily fetch a D prospect, much like the Nylander/Jokiharju deal.

Because we have a system loaded with other talented forwards like Savoie, Rosen, Kulich and Östlund, so many here are ready to move from other talented forwards who haven’t yet reached their potential or are struggling this season.  This is a huge luxury, but as we have seen with Tage, development isn’t a straight line.  Don’t be surprised if neither guy is moved this season or this off-season as the Sabres have contract  control on both players

Honestly, I’d move VO, play Krebs at center with Mitts on the wing and find a physical forward to forecheck and create space for them and see how the season plays out. That said, I do think neither player will be here beyond next season, but one never knows.  I thought Tage was a bust prior to last season.

I disagree with you regarding Mitt's current worth. He's playing as a third line center with his minutes being limited. (Why do you think that DG has curtailed his minutes?) I'm confident in saying that his current market value is very small at this time. 

I'm not a Mitts basher, at least compared to the consensus assessment made by most on this site. I want him to succeed. Last year, DG said that he was one of the best players in training camp, then he got hurt. From what I have seen this year he seems to be spinning his wheels and not getting enough production to warrant much playing time. When watching him play I see that he has the parts of the game as far as effort, vision, responsible two-way play etc., but the pieces just don't seem to fall together and translate into production. One advantage he has is that he is versatile enough where he can play both the wing and center. So that is an asset. I'm not giving up on him but candidly my view of him has very much dimmed. Sometimes players become stale in one location and a change of a location can result in invigorating a career that has gone stale. 

With respect to Krebs I believe that a stint in Rochester with extensive playing time would benefit him. In no way am I arguing to deal him unless the return for him is too attractive. 

[inkman]

37 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I disagree with you regarding Mitt's current worth. He's playing as a third line center with his minutes being limited. (Why do you think that DG has curtailed his minutes?) I'm confident in saying that his current market value is very small at this time. 

I'm not a Mitts basher, at least compared to the consensus assessment made by most on this site. I want him to succeed. Last year, DG said that he was one of the best players in training camp, then he got hurt. From what I have seen this year he seems to be spinning his wheels and not getting enough production to warrant much playing time. When watching him play I see that he has the parts of the game as far as effort, vision, responsible two-way play etc., but the pieces just don't seem to fall together and translate into production. One advantage he has is that he is versatile enough where he can play both the wing and center. So that is an asset. I'm not giving up on him but candidly my view of him has very much dimmed. Sometimes players become stale in one location and a change of a location can result in invigorating a career that has gone stale. 

With respect to Krebs I believe that a stint in Rochester with extensive playing time would benefit him. In no way am I arguing to deal him unless the return for him is too attractive. 

Hasn’t the Mittlestadt line been getting the least amount of minutes, making them the 4th line, the last few weeks?

[Nitro60]

Good defensemen can cover for an average goalie and the team wins.  A good goalie can cover for average defensemen and the team wins.  Sabres are in a situation where they do not have enough good defensemen or good goalies.  Sabres should focus on getting multiple goalies into the farm system and develop them.  We have had guys in the past who showed promise on the way up but did not pan out in the NHL.  Keep at it and hope that we find a diamond in the rough.   

[JohnC]

23 minutes ago, inkman said:

Hasn’t the Mittlestadt line been getting the least amount of minutes, making them the 4th line, the last few weeks?

Yes. Without even getting into numbering the lines what is evident is that the coach has lessened their time on ice due to their unproductive play. 

[Quint]

Can't find any information on and haven't heard anything about Ben Bishop. Has he retired?  I thought I heard he might be working with Dallas Stars in some capacity. He's a beast at 6'7, only 36 years old with a lifetime GAA of 2.32...If he's healthy, he's still one of the best.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

Hasn’t the Mittlestadt line been getting the least amount of minutes, making them the 4th line, the last few weeks games?

FTFY & yes.  They were dropped from being the 2nd line against Joisey.

[thewookie1]

53 minutes ago, Quint said:

Can't find any information on and haven't heard anything about Ben Bishop. Has he retired?  I thought I heard he might be working with Dallas Stars in some capacity. He's a beast at 6'7, only 36 years old with a lifetime GAA of 2.32...If he's healthy, he's still one of the best.

lTIRetired due to groin and leg injuries

He tried to work with Dallas but the NHL said no, seeing as he's under contract technically with the Sabres still.

[Curt]

48 minutes ago, Quint said:

Can't find any information on and haven't heard anything about Ben Bishop. Has he retired?  I thought I heard he might be working with Dallas Stars in some capacity. He's a beast at 6'7, only 36 years old with a lifetime GAA of 2.32...If he's healthy, he's still one of the best.

Bishop is finished playing.  He is on LTIR.  He is physically unable to play.

He was going to work with the Stars as a coach but I believe the NHL said he couldn’t because he was technically still under contract with another NHL team.

[Taro T]

53 minutes ago, Quint said:

Can't find any information on and haven't heard anything about Ben Bishop. Has he retired?  I thought I heard he might be working with Dallas Stars in some capacity. He's a beast at 6'7, only 36 years old with a lifetime GAA of 2.32...If he's healthy, he's still one of the best.

He is effectively retired.

He will be a coach for Dallas next year.  He planned to beat coach for them this year, but the league stepped in and said you can't be one of the 50 for 1 team & then take a job w/ another team.

Apparently they have different rules for players they want working for the league as there have been a few guys on BF-LTIR who have been hired by the NHL Office through the years.

[Broken Ankles]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You seem to have forgotten Christian Dvorak went for a 1st & a 2nd last year and he has never reached 40 pts in a season.  Also the Kapenan deal  7 players and picks.  
Odds are if Mitts gets traded it will be in a larger deal involving players picks and prospects to make the cap considerations and valuations work.  Harrington even brought up his name in a proposed Chychrun deal. 

Admittedly Mitts is struggling this season in both ends 5 on 5.  The question is are all those numbers on him, or because of poor line mates or poor defense/goaltending or poor coaching usage or some combo of all 4?  I do think he has played to much perimeter hockey ytd and I’d like to see him drive more to the net.  He isn’t a small player and should go to the dirty areas.  I also think his line in general needs to be more physically assertive.  As I’ve said before, I’d like to see DG add Z to the line to add more physicality and north/south play to the line.

     You are right, I did. He was 25 and he had signed an extension to carry him into UFA.   It may have been the final nail in Marc B’s career as a GM.  Dvorak was supposed to be a replacement for 2 gaping holes at center for Montreal.   From the limited games I’ve seen has been given the chance to play 2C and has to be considered a disappointment based on his contract and what they gave up to get him.  And he’s a different player than Mitts.  My money has Savoie as the 3C and Rasmus II as 4C with some UFA additions to fill out the bottom six next year.  I’d like to see him moved to Minnesota for Marcus.  I’m sure you feel that would be pittance of a return, but time will tell. 

[kas23]

14 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I agree that there is no rush to make a decision and move on from Mitts or Krebs, but it is nuts to think that anyone would give the Sabres a first-rounder for Mitts.  I doubt they’d get a second for that matter.  

It’s definitely not the time to move on from Krebs. He has at least another 2 years. Mitts was drafted in 2017 and Krebs in 2019. I’m not as worried about Krebs. I agree no one is going to give a 1st for Mitts. I see more of a Nylander trade. A player that needs a change of scenery for a player that also needs a change of scenery. 

[nfreeman]

14 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Let’s revisit if Mitts finishes this season with 45-50 pts.  You better believe if he finishes with 45-50 pts on a 2.5 mill contract and team control, that KA could get a 1st for him.  That said he finishes at that level, KA probably keeps him and the people here jump on the bandwagon.

Well, yes, if he more than doubles his career-high scoring total of 25 pts, his value will probably increase relative to where it is right now.  BTW, his shooting % this season is 14.3%, which is well above his career average of 11.3%, so it's not terribly likely that he'll maintain his YTD scoring pace.

My point was that at present, no one would give the Sabres a #1, and probably not a #2 either, for him.  Do you disagree?

 

12 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

Chances for a first? The Blutarsky.  Zero point zero.  The last 24-year-old with a reasonable AAV to garner a first round pick in return was Kapanen in a 2020 Toronto/Pittsburgh trade.  KK had consecutive seasons of 40 points seasons with a positive corsi and plus/minus.  He also had 39 Even strength points.  Mitts has   3 even strength points.  That projects to 11, and that’s IF he can play a full season.  Which he has yet to prove.  He’s a negative Corsi guy who is weak on the puck in both zones. His comparable is somewhere between Kapanen and Milano,  who didn’t receive a QO from the Ducks.  Closer to Santino.  You’ve always had a bias for this player.  Made clear by the tone in your response to John.  Followed by the inkling that he hits 50 points this season.  By the way, he said he had little value, not zero.  But he certainly could, if they hold for one more year. 

I agree with all of this and just have one minor quibble:  I don't agree with the use of "bias," which has a negative connotation with implications of dishonesty, as a synonym for "opinion."  GA has an opinion on Mitts, which is that he think Mitts is a better player than he's showing right now.  His opinion on Mitts differs from the opinions of many others.  I think he's probably wrong, but I don't see "bias" anywhere.

 

4 minutes ago, kas23 said:

It’s definitely not the time to move on from Krebs. He has at least another 2 years. Mitts was drafted in 2017 and Krebs in 2019. I’m not as worried about Krebs. I agree no one is going to give a 1st for Mitts. I see more of a Nylander trade. A player that needs a change of scenery for a player that also needs a change of scenery. 

Good call -- I can definitely see this happening.

[Marvin]

Have we seen Mittlestadt-Krebs-Olofsson and Mittlestadt-Asplund-Olofsson yet?

The reason I think that the problem is Mittlestadt at Centre is that Olofsson played OK last season when Mittlestadt was out even when he wasn't scoring.

[Taro T]

34 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Have we seen Mittlestadt-Krebs-Olofsson and Mittlestadt-Asplund-Olofsson yet?

The reason I think that the problem is Mittlestadt at Centre is that Olofsson played OK last season when Mittlestadt was out even when he wasn't scoring.

To the 1st, yes, Thursday night vs the Avs.

To the 2nd, no.  Asplund was always the 2nd wing on that line.

[Quint]

13 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

lTIRetired due to groin and leg injuries

He tried to work with Dallas but the NHL said no, seeing as he's under contract technically with the Sabres still.

 

13 hours ago, Curt said:

Bishop is finished playing.  He is on LTIR.  He is physically unable to play.

He was going to work with the Stars as a coach but I believe the NHL said he couldn’t because he was technically still under contract with another NHL team.

 

13 hours ago, Taro T said:

He is effectively retired.

He will be a coach for Dallas next year.  He planned to beat coach for them this year, but the league stepped in and said you can't be one of the 50 for 1 team & then take a job w/ another team.

Apparently they have different rules for players they want working for the league as there have been a few guys on BF-LTIR who have been hired by the NHL Office through the years.

Thanks guys.

 

 

[LGR4GM]

I found this interesting since the narrative is Adams doesn't care or is incompetent. 

 

[Marvin]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I found this interesting since the narrative is Adams doesn't care or is incompetent. 

 

So the belief that people do not want to come here has some truth to it.  This also implies that the Sabres need to get Levi and Portillo both into the fold if possible.  We probably need to emphasise goaltending a bit more than other teams in future drafts.

[French Collection]

It will be easier to attract goalies to Buffalo if they improve in the standings and can show that goaltending is the biggest hurdle to being a playoff team.

[Weave]

33 minutes ago, French Collection said:

It will be easier to attract goalies to Buffalo if they improve in the standings and can show that goaltending is the biggest hurdle to being a playoff team.

It would also be easier to attract goalies if we showed we can play competent team defence.

[GASabresIUFAN]

48 minutes ago, Weave said:

It would also be easier to attract goalies if we showed we can play competent team defence.

That would involve trading for competent defensemen.  Don’t hold your breath.  He might even try to trade for a goalie without trade protection.

Edited December 7, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN