Advanced Stats Say Goaltending the Issue, Not Defense

[Curt]

52 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

this is something 

Yeah, Sabres are creating offense and scoring goals.

[Quint]

I think it's both. This is a perfect example of what's going on in the Sabres crease. I notice situations like this pretty often where an opponent crosses over from the left crease to the right post. The left d-man tries to guard the cutting opponent but the goalie gets in the way and the d-man ends up knocking the o-man into the goalie. I've seen this happen with Dahlin multiple times (he's getting more vicious every time) but opponents try this tactic of crashing the net or cutting toward the post. Many times the refs miss that the players enter the crease before the puck, which is supposed to be a penalty. The Sabres d have very few answers in the crease, especially now that Lyubushkin is hurt again. Need more physical defensemen not more finesse, a unsexy move, as opposed to Chychrun, who the Pegulas are personal friends with.

 

 

[matter2003]

1 hour ago, Quint said:

I think it's both. This is a perfect example of what's going on in the Sabres crease. I notice situations like this pretty often where an opponent crosses over from the left crease to the right post. The left d-man tries to guard the cutting opponent but the goalie gets in the way and the d-man ends up knocking the o-man into the goalie. I've seen this happen with Dahlin multiple times (he's getting more vicious every time) but opponents try this tactic of crashing the net or cutting toward the post. Many times the refs miss that the players enter the crease before the puck, which is supposed to be a penalty. The Sabres d have very few answers in the crease, especially now that Lyubushkin is hurt again. Need more physical defensemen not more finesse, a unsexy move, as opposed to Chychrun, who the Pegulas are personal friends with.

 

 

Dahlin is really starting to seemingly enjoy hitting people...something that was missing from his game.

[JoeSchmoe]

As I type this the Sabres are tied for 1st in the league with NJ for goals scored with 90 a piece.

[Dreams Burn Down]

7 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

As I type this the Sabres are tied for 1st in the league with NJ for goals scored with 90 a piece.

Unfortunately, we are 29th in goals against with 89.

[JoeSchmoe]

Another major bone of contention with Adams' goalie plan for this year...

If your backup is too old to shoulder 2/3 of the starts if your starter goes down, he is not a true viable backup goalie.

[GASabresIUFAN]

49 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Another major bone of contention with Adams' goalie plan for this year...

If your backup is too old to shoulder 2/3 of the starts if your starter goes down, he is not a true viable backup goalie.

The plan was if Comrie went down or Anderson went down, UPL would split the time to see if he is NHL ready.  He isn't and the plan has stunk for 2 years.  Ka is to "patient" (read stubborn) to fix the problem.  

It's abundantly clear that changes on defense and goaltending are necessary but they won't be made. 

[LGR4GM]

40 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The plan was if Comrie went down or Anderson went down, UPL would split the time to see if he is NHL ready.  He isn't and the plan has stunk for 2 years.  Ka is to "patient" (read stubborn) to fix the problem.  

It's abundantly clear that changes on defense and goaltending are necessary but they won't be made. 

I think you are confusing "won't" with "immediate" because Adams has started that process. We can argue he needs to speed it up or add other stuff but I don't think it is about not doing it. Adams brought in Comrie because his GSAE was great last year and for the first few games this year he was still good. Then Muel got hurt and things went to hell. We can say Adams didnt support the defense enough. Idk a fan who wouldn't argue we needed another NHL defender. What I am saying is Adams is making changes, you don't trade Reinhart for Levi if it isn't part of getting a goaltender. You don't sign Comrie if you aren't trying to make sure you don't have to rely on UPL, they clearly aren't sold on him as an NHL tender and guess what? The Comrie injury is really allowing that evaluation to move forward. 

Adams is moving slow in some regards for sure. I think he does view this as another build/evaluation/development year which sucks. That said, we have seen that Adams will move and make changes once he decides on something. He decided Eichel needed to be shipped out and once he got the price he roughly wanted, done. He knew he wanted Jack Quinn over Marco Rossi, done. He knew he wanted JJP and bam traded up. He tried to trade up for Kulich and got lucky he slid. He wanted more physicality on the backend and Boosh. He knew Samuelsson was a key piece and bam 7yr deal. He knew Tage was going to good again, 7 yr deal. When Adams decides, he moves. He tried to add Murray before Comrie, we don't know who else in the goalie market he tried for. 

Right now he can't move and that is on him, it is his fault for not giving us more depth. Now he probably has to wait until the trade deadline or over pay to add something. He knew that Sheahan and Bjork weren't what we needed so added Jost (who looks okay so far). Adams is cautious but the suggestion from you and others is that Adams is refusing to make moves, he isn't. Agree with his moves or not, but he seems calculated as opposed to panicky. I wish his plan was faster but he at least has a plan. He is adding specific types of players and when he can't add that player he waits. 

Adams didn't do enough to fix the defense. Idk if he could have done more but he should have. I think Goaltending will be fine once Comrie is back. I guess we shall see. 

[JoeSchmoe]

41 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think Goaltending will be fine once Comrie is back. I guess we shall see. 

We still need a viable #3 goalie, especially with a 41 year old #2 and a #1 that's missed significant time. UPL has proven that's not him. 

[tom webster]

44 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think you are confusing "won't" with "immediate" because Adams has started that process. We can argue he needs to speed it up or add other stuff but I don't think it is about not doing it. Adams brought in Comrie because his GSAE was great last year and for the first few games this year he was still good. Then Muel got hurt and things went to hell. We can say Adams didnt support the defense enough. Idk a fan who wouldn't argue we needed another NHL defender. What I am saying is Adams is making changes, you don't trade Reinhart for Levi if it isn't part of getting a goaltender. You don't sign Comrie if you aren't trying to make sure you don't have to rely on UPL, they clearly aren't sold on him as an NHL tender and guess what? The Comrie injury is really allowing that evaluation to move forward. 

Adams is moving slow in some regards for sure. I think he does view this as another build/evaluation/development year which sucks. That said, we have seen that Adams will move and make changes once he decides on something. He decided Eichel needed to be shipped out and once he got the price he roughly wanted, done. He knew he wanted Jack Quinn over Marco Rossi, done. He knew he wanted JJP and bam traded up. He tried to trade up for Kulich and got lucky he slid. He wanted more physicality on the backend and Boosh. He knew Samuelsson was a key piece and bam 7yr deal. He knew Tage was going to good again, 7 yr deal. When Adams decides, he moves. He tried to add Murray before Comrie, we don't know who else in the goalie market he tried for. 

Right now he can't move and that is on him, it is his fault for not giving us more depth. Now he probably has to wait until the trade deadline or over pay to add something. He knew that Sheahan and Bjork weren't what we needed so added Jost (who looks okay so far). Adams is cautious but the suggestion from you and others is that Adams is refusing to make moves, he isn't. Agree with his moves or not, but he seems calculated as opposed to panicky. I wish his plan was faster but he at least has a plan. He is adding specific types of players and when he can't add that player he waits. 

Adams didn't do enough to fix the defense. Idk if he could have done more but he should have. I think Goaltending will be fine once Comrie is back. I guess we shall see. 

One thing we know for sure;

1) he tried to get Murray

One thing has been reported by reputable sources;

1) John Gibson was asked to waive his NMC for both Toronto and Buffalo

One thing I’m fairly confident of;

1) He thought he had Ullmark and misread the situation.

 

Its on him to get something done but to say he isn’t trying is flat out incorrect 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Adams is moving slow in some regards for sure. I think he does view this as another build/evaluation/development year which sucks.

 

Granato gave us good insight into their thought process this week when he said one of the biggest mistakes he observed as a pro scout was a tendency for teams to move on from young players before fully figuring out what they have.

We don't fully know the "how" or the "how long" but we do know that the team is committed to giving people the opportunity to reach their potential.

And, by and large, it's working. I mean Adams may not agree, but I'm confirming a ton of ***** this season about players they've been watching for a season and a half:

• Rasmus Dahlin and Tage Thompson are stars and true building block players
• Jeff Skinner still has it as a top 6 forward and Alex Tuch is definitely one as well
• Casey Mittelstadt is not
• Victor Olofsson is a luxury player
• Henri Jokiharju is a mid-roster player, Jacob Bryson is not
• UPL is not the answer

I might have suspected a lot of these things before, but now I feel like I know and I didn't last year.

Still more data needed on Comrie, Peterka, Krebs, Quinn, Cozens, Mule and Power (but my god are the returns looking good on the last 3).

But maybe we're closer to the tipping point than we think.

We did get Marek's remark last week that there is a feeling around the league that the Sabres have identified their core and are ready to start building around it.

The holes on this team are becoming pretty obvious and we do have the ammunition to fill them.

I hope that ammunition gets used judiciously, by targeting the right pieces, even if it means watching 6-5 games for remainder of the season.

In the meantime, this team continues to be both frustrating and promising, and surprisingly fun to watch.

Edited December 2, 2022 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

We did get Marek's remark last week that there is a feeling around the league that the Sabres have identified their core and are ready to start building around it.

The core is easy to identify -

Forwards - Tage, Tuch, Cozens, JJP and Quinn (with Skinner because of his contract)

Defense - Dahlin, Power & Samuelsson

I know this, you know this, everyone who has watched them play knows this.

I think they like Joki in general but wouldn't hesitate to move him in the right real.  Girgensons is the most valuable of the others because he plays a physical brand of hockey they need in the bottom 6.  As for the rest, including Mitts, Krebs, VO and Asplund they shouldn't hesitate to move.  They should move KO to the front office after this season unless he wants to keep playing and if he does thank him for his service and say Buh-Bye.  The rest are garbage or roster filler. 

With the exception of Krebs and Mitts, most of these conclusion we knew coming into this season.  Those 2 forwards the jury was still out on and know we pretty much know that we can move on when a prospect is ready. VO's verdict was in when KA only gave him a 2 year deal.  He'll be traded by the deadline.

[Crusader1969]

Talking about goaltending - I did find one sliver of hope for UPL

out of the 3 goalies this year , he is the only one who’s let in less goals than expected 5v5

also has the best save percentage at .916 at 5v5

I’m curious to see him vs teams that aren’t Col, TB and Toronto    And hope like hell they stop taking so many penalties 

 

[Marvin]

25 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Talking about goaltending - I did find one sliver of hope for UPL

out of the 3 goalies this year , he is the only one who’s let in less goals than expected 5v5

also has the best save percentage at .916 at 5v5

I’m curious to see him vs teams that aren’t Col, TB and Toronto    And hope like hell they stop taking so many penalties 

 

That is a very interesting stat for UPL.  I would never have guessed it.  It also points at the problems on the PK.

[JoeSchmoe]

44 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Talking about goaltending - I did find one sliver of hope for UPL

out of the 3 goalies this year , he is the only one who’s let in less goals than expected 5v5

also has the best save percentage at .916 at 5v5

I’m curious to see him vs teams that aren’t Col, TB and Toronto    And hope like hell they stop taking so many penalties 

 

I'm calling this a sample size anomaly.

He is what his AHL stats say he is- not an NHL caliber goalie. 

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

Granato gave us good insight into their thought process this week when he said one of the biggest mistakes he observed as a pro scout was a tendency for teams to move on from young players before fully figuring out what they have.

We don't fully know the "how" or the "how long" but we do know that the team is committed to giving people the opportunity to reach their potential.

And, by and large, it's working. I mean Adams may not agree, but I'm confirming a ton of ***** this season about players they've been watching for a season and a half:

• Rasmus Dahlin and Tage Thompson are stars and true building block players
• Jeff Skinner still has it as a top 6 forward and Alex Tuch is definitely one as well
• Casey Mittelstadt is not
• Victor Olofsson is a luxury player
• Henri Jokiharju is a mid-roster player, Jacob Bryson is not
• UPL is not the answer

I might have suspected a lot of these things before, but now I feel like I know and I didn't last year.

Still more data needed on Comrie, Peterka, Krebs, Quinn, Cozens, Mule and Power (but my god are the returns looking good on the last 3).

But maybe we're closer to the tipping point than we think.

We did get Marek's remark last week that there is a feeling around the league that the Sabres have identified their core and are ready to start building around it.

The holes on this team are becoming pretty obvious and we do have the ammunition to fill them.

I hope that ammunition gets used judiciously, by targeting the right pieces, even if it means watching 6-5 games for remainder of the season.

In the meantime, this team continues to be both frustrating and promising, and surprisingly fun to watch.

Think you meant 4 and I would argue 5 of them. 

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

Talking about goaltending - I did find one sliver of hope for UPL

out of the 3 goalies this year , he is the only one who’s let in less goals than expected 5v5

also has the best save percentage at .916 at 5v5

I’m curious to see him vs teams that aren’t Col, TB and Toronto    And hope like hell they stop taking so many penalties 

 

Yea, because he has played the least amount of games so far. 

[Mb278]

maybe this is what we would have looked like in the LaFontaine, Mogilny, Chuck (Dale and Andy) years if we didnt have Hasek. But agree stats are pointing a big 'ole finger at goaltending. 

[Crusader1969]

38 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Think you meant 4 and I would argue 5 of them. 

Yea, because he has played the least amount of games so far. 

You might be right that’s it’s due to a small sample - I did say sliver up hope. 
BUT the stats say he was expected to give up 8.9 and he only let in 7.2    May not be great but better than both Comrie in 11 games and Anderson who have both given up more than what was expected 5v5

 

[Weave]

1 hour ago, Mb278 said:

maybe this is what we would have looked like in the LaFontaine, Mogilny, Chuck (Dale and Andy) years if we didnt have Hasek. But agree stats are pointing a big 'ole finger at goaltending. 

There isn’t a LaFontaine or Hawerchuck on this roster.

But that roster didn’t have a Dahlin either.

[Marvin]

1 hour ago, Mb278 said:

maybe this is what we would have looked like in the LaFontaine, Mogilny, Chuck (Dale and Andy) years if we didnt have Hasek. But agree stats are pointing a big 'ole finger at goaltending. 

Take a look at 1991-2 with Tom Draper, Clint Malarchuk, and Daren Puppa.

[nfreeman]

From the Athletic today:

 

The power play has put a dent in Luukkonen’s numbers, but he’s been solid otherwise. At five-on-five, he has a .919 save percentage and a 2.25 goals-against average. His goals saved above expected is positive at even strength, too.

…

The Sabres’ goalie situation hasn’t been perfect this season, but it’s tough to isolate blame when Buffalo has given up the sixth-most high-danger scoring chances, according to Natural Stat Trick. As a team, their high-danger save percentage is ranked in the middle of the league. They’re just giving up more of those chances than most teams.

[Scottysabres]

29 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

From the Athletic today:

 

The power play has put a dent in Luukkonen’s numbers, but he’s been solid otherwise. At five-on-five, he has a .919 save percentage and a 2.25 goals-against average. His goals saved above expected is positive at even strength, too.

…

The Sabres’ goalie situation hasn’t been perfect this season, but it’s tough to isolate blame when Buffalo has given up the sixth-most high-danger scoring chances, according to Natural Stat Trick. As a team, their high-danger save percentage is ranked in the middle of the league. They’re just giving up more of those chances than most teams.

I wonder, is that due to poor bounces, poor decisions on ice

I.E. loosing the puck due to errant passes/possession, or getting caught to far up ice. Not taking the body in the slot or net front.

Or if it's a coached strategy situation.

I.E. Granato and staff encouraging d men to pinch the opponents blue line. Or telling the players to pressure the opponent along the perimeter in our D zone, leaving the slot/net front exposed.

Edited December 2, 2022 by Scottysabres

[steveoath]

On 11/17/2022 at 7:43 PM, Marvin said:

My favourite TV shows are Doctor Who (particularly the original), Monty Python's Flying Circus, The Goodies, Yes (Prime) Minister

Have a look for The Thick of it. I think you may enjoy it. 

 

 

[JohnC]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The core is easy to identify -

Forwards - Tage, Tuch, Cozens, JJP and Quinn (with Skinner because of his contract)

Defense - Dahlin, Power & Samuelsson

I know this, you know this, everyone who has watched them play knows this.

I think they like Joki in general but wouldn't hesitate to move him in the right real.  Girgensons is the most valuable of the others because he plays a physical brand of hockey they need in the bottom 6.  As for the rest, including Mitts, Krebs, VO and Asplund they shouldn't hesitate to move.  They should move KO to the front office after this season unless he wants to keep playing and if he does thank him for his service and say Buh-Bye.  The rest are garbage or roster filler. 

With the exception of Krebs and Mitts, most of these conclusion we knew coming into this season.  Those 2 forwards the jury was still out on and know we pretty much know that we can move on when a prospect is ready. VO's verdict was in when KA only gave him a 2 year deal.  He'll be traded by the deadline.

Krebs appears to be a young player who simply isn't ready for regular NHL playing time. Maybe the best approach to build him up as a player would be to send him to Rochester and exhaustingly play him in all situations. DG has talked about the perils of being too quick to make a judgment on a young player. Krebs is the type of player who would fall withing his warnings about being too quick to judge. 

With respect to Mitts, I think the best thing for him is a change of scenery. The problem is that he has little value on the trade market. I have been more supportive/hopeful about him than others have been. However, that hope for him is fading almost to the point of being extinguished. 

It's unlikely that the Sabres will make the playoffs this year. However, I still believe that this team can get things together enough to make a legitimate run for a lower playoff spot. Even if the team falls short (as it is likely), I still believe that we can contend up to the end of the season.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

Krebs appears to be a young player who simply isn't ready for regular NHL playing time. Maybe the best approach to build him up as a player would be to send him to Rochester and exhaustingly play him in all situations. DG has talked about the perils of being too quick to make a judgment on a young player. Krebs is the type of player who would fall withing his warnings about being too quick to judge. 

With respect to Mitts, I think the best thing for him is a change of scenery. The problem is that he has little value on the trade market. I have been more supportive/hopeful about him than others have been. However, that hope for him is fading almost to the point of being extinguished. 

It's unlikely that the Sabres will make the playoffs this year. However, I still believe that this team can get things together enough to make a legitimate run for a lower playoff spot. Even if the team falls short (as it is likely), I still believe that we can contend up to the end of the season.  

You have zero idea what these guys are worth.   None.  Mitts is on pace for a 45-50 pt season.  Giving his contract $ and cap hit, another year on his deal and RFA status, he could be worth as much as a 1st rd pick. Just because you and others have soured on him doesn’t mean other teams have.  Many teams are desperate for skill forwards just as we are for talent on D. 

Krebs has a ton of talent. So many teams would love to have a forward of his skill set, age (21), and talent in their system.  He could easily fetch a D prospect, much like the Nylander/Jokiharju deal.

Because we have a system loaded with other talented forwards like Savoie, Rosen, Kulich and Östlund, so many here are ready to move from other talented forwards who haven’t yet reached their potential or are struggling this season.  This is a huge luxury, but as we have seen with Tage, development isn’t a straight line.  Don’t be surprised if neither guy is moved this season or this off-season as the Sabres have contract  control on both players

Honestly, I’d move VO, play Krebs at center with Mitts on the wing and find a physical forward to forecheck and create space for them and see how the season plays out. That said, I do think neither player will be here beyond next season, but one never knows.  I thought Tage was a bust prior to last season.

Edited December 3, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN
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