Advanced Stats Say Goaltending the Issue, Not Defense

[JoeSchmoe]

Looking at Moneypuck, the Sabres goaltending is sitting 24th in the league in 5 on 5 Goals Saved Above Expected.

At the same time, the Sabres are 9th best in High Danger Shots Against (albeit 19th in Medium Danger).

At the end of the day, the D are giving up golden scoring chances, but there are 21 teams that are doing worse. But, there are only 8 teams getting less dependable goaltending than us.

Once again, not getting league average goaltending has been our Achilles heel. I'll also say, nothing deflates a team better than a weak goal against. 

Edited November 16, 2022 by JoeSchmoe

[Zamboni]

For the most part we are good for at least three goals against every game.

 

so the Sabres have to score at least four goals or more a game in order to win it. For the most part.

 

Although it’s not the only answer…

that’s not good goaltending at all.

[mjd1001]

To me the last week or two the Sabres have had bad goaltending, but I think earlier in the year it was OK.

As far as Defense, Pick on Pilut and Bryson all you want, I don't see them as playing poorly. Could they be better? Yes they could. But I think the Positioning and effot the Forward are putting forward in the D-zone is much worse than even the 3rd pairing on Defense.  Cozins is out of position (overly aggressive) and leaves spots open all the time. Krebs might be the worse Forward I have ever seen in the Defensive zone (skating by guys, not winning any battles, late getting back), Quinn and Peterka put the effort (more than Krebs) but they need to learn a lot more positioning).  Even the Veteran forwards have occasional breakdowns (not for lack of effort, but they just don't have that 'Boston bruin' like knowledge of knowing where all their linemates are going to be and not missing coverage.

I also think Lyubushkin is still playing hurt.  He was rock solid with positioning until his injury, since he came back he seems to be a step slower recovering in his own zone.

Edited November 16, 2022 by mjd1001

[Curt]

It’s not the offense.  Sabres are 3rd in the East in goals scored.  Unfortunately, they are also 3rd worst in goals against.

Goaltending has definitely been part of the problem.

[Crusader1969]

The Sabres season in 2 acts

Act 1

Rasmus Dahlin  7G 11A +10

Act 2 

Jacob Bryson  1G 5A  -11

 

21 goal difference at 5v5 

its not just goaltending    It’s goaltending and individual dmen 

Bryson needs to be sent to the AHL when Samuelsson returns 

 

 

 

 

[matter2003]

Just now, Crusader1969 said:

The Sabres season in 2 acts

Act 1

Rasmus Dahlin  7G 11A +10

Act 2 

Jacob Bryson  1G 5A  -11

 

21 goal difference at 5v5 

its not just goaltending    It’s goaltending and individual dmen 

Bryson needs to be sent to the AHL when Samuelsson returns 

 

 

 

 

Samuelsson has been a massive loss...he was the most dependable Dman in our own zone and him being out has had a trickle down effect on the others.

[Crusader1969]

2 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Samuelsson has been a massive loss...he was the most dependable Dman in our own zone and him being out has had a trickle down effect on the others.

I agree, the 3 guys Sabres could not afford to have injured 

1) Dahlin
2) Tage
3) Samuelsson 

[LabattBlue]

11 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Bryson needs to be sent to the AHL when Samuelsson returns 

 

 

 

 

…and Pilut, and Fitz.  

[Taro T]

58 minutes ago, Curt said:

It’s not the offense.  Sabres are 3rd in the East in goals scored.  Unfortunately, they are also 3rd worst in goals against.

Goaltending has definitely been part of the problem.

Would be interested in seeing those rankings taking ENGs out of the mix.  Expecting that ranking drops quite a bit if they aren't included.

[Contempt]

[inkman]

Would it kill someone to put a link to the stats rather than me having to take someone’s word for it.  

[Berg]

The last game showed that the problems are mainly in defense. The opponent scores as much as he is allowed to.

Vancouver scored in one touch according to a well-established scheme, or when they were not prevented from hitting on goal.

You have to be more aggressive and block the shots. The goalkeeper needs to be secured.

[inkman]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

The Sabres season in 2 acts

Act 1

Rasmus Dahlin  7G 11A +10

Act 2 

Jacob Bryson  1G 5A  -11

 

21 goal difference at 5v5 

its not just goaltending    It’s goaltending and individual dmen 

Bryson needs to be sent to the AHL when Samuelsson returns 

 

 

 

 

I’ve been saying it since before his first call up.  Bryson is not an NHL D.  He’s tiny and does very little to compensate for that fact. Also see Fitzgerald and Pilut. 

[Curt]

 

32 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Would be interested in seeing those rankings taking ENGs out of the mix.  Expecting that ranking drops quite a bit if they aren't included.

Perhaps you are right about that. They have 8 ENG.  Seems like that is probably above average.

Edited November 16, 2022 by Curt

[JoeSchmoe]

9 minutes ago, inkman said:

Would it kill someone to put a link to the stats rather than me having to take someone’s word for it.  

https://moneypuck.com/teams.htm

You have to sort by statistical quantity you're measuring.

[GASabresIUFAN]

When you have mediocre goalies you have to do things on defense to prevent odd man rushes because any mistake ends up in the net.  Our D isn’t up to that task.  This is on DG and KA.  Granato needs to adjust how he coaches and KA needs to get him better defenders who actually have a clue on how to play in their own zone.  

Time for KA to actually support the team before it’s to late.

[Hank]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

When you have mediocre goalies you have to do things on defense to prevent odd man rushes because any mistake ends up in the net.  Our D isn’t up to that task.  This is on DG and KA.  Granato needs to adjust how he coaches and KA needs to get him better defenders who actually have a clue on how to play in their own zone.  

Time for KA to actually support the team before it’s to late.

Too late for what?

[JoeSchmoe]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

When you have mediocre goalies you have to do things on defense to prevent odd man rushes because any mistake ends up in the net.  Our D isn’t up to that task.  This is on DG and KA.  Granato needs to adjust how he coaches and KA needs to get him better defenders who actually have a clue on how to play in their own zone.  

Time for KA to actually support the team before it’s to late.

Going back to why I made this thread- we're 9th in limiting high danger shots.

Our D has been holding up their end of the bargain.

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 minutes ago, Hank said:

Too late for what?

Too late to field a team capable of making the playoffs this season.  80% of the season remains.  We have a playoff caliber offense and with the right tinkering on the blueline we could actually still have a successful (winning!) season.  

[JoeSchmoe]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Too late to field a team capable of making the playoffs this season.  80% of the season remains.  We have a playoff caliber offense and with the right tinkering in net we could actually still have a successful (winning!) season.  

Is this what you meant to say?

[GASabresIUFAN]

15 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Going back to why I made this thread- we're 9th in limiting high danger shots.

Our D has been holding up their end of the bargain.

High danger chances and odd man rushes are not the same thing. HDC may include odd man rushes, but it’s defined as shots taken from certain areas on the ice such as net front.  I completely disagree that the defense is holding up their end.  All the D, except Power and Dahlin, have terrible advanced metrics.  

We need to send Pilut and Fitz down and acquire 2 veteran D.  One for depth and one to partner with Power once Samuelsson returns.  This will at least one of Jokiharju, Bryson or Bush to the bench where they belong. 

I don’t think KA will address the goaltending until the off-season at the earliest even though I agree Comrie and Anderson aren’t good enough.

Edited November 16, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[LTS]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Would be interested in seeing those rankings taking ENGs out of the mix.  Expecting that ranking drops quite a bit if they aren't included.

You might be right...

1 hour ago, Curt said:

 

Perhaps you are right about that. They have 8 ENG.  Seems like that is probably above average.

https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/nhl-teams-empty-net-goals-this-season

Says 7 goals.. and a quick eyeball of the chart at the top I would say the league average is about 3.

[Marvin]

The defencive problems are threefold:

1. Inconsistent goaltending.  But far too many times, the shots are from open shooters in high danger areas away from the initial point of attack.  Thus, I can't criticise them too much because of the next 2 reasons, which I feel are more important.

2. Defencive depth is not NHL quality.  Bryson, Pilut, Fitzgerald, and Clague make me yearn for Rory Fitzpatrick, Doug Janik, Nathan Paetsch, and Jeff Jillson.  GMKA should make a hockey trade for improvement here.

3. Defencive zone coverage by the forwards.  The lack of awareness in the defencive zone from most of the forwards is what makes me think that HCDG does not emphasise this in practise.  This is his greatest flaw as a coach.

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

The Sabres season in 2 acts

Act 1

Rasmus Dahlin  7G 11A +10

Act 2 

Jacob Bryson  1G 5A  -11

 

21 goal difference at 5v5 

its not just goaltending    It’s goaltending and individual dmen 

Bryson needs to be sent to the AHL when Samuelsson returns 

 

 

 

 

Yep. Other words: roster construction 

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Too late to field a team capable of making the playoffs this season.  80% of the season remains.  We have a playoff caliber offense and with the right tinkering on the blueline we could actually still have a successful (winning!) season.  

Yup. Doesn’t even need to be about playoffs. We can just strive to be..better. Ridiculous not to. Truly ridiculous imo. We’ve fallen to 26 out of 32. 

Things need to improve substantially, playoffs or not, or we are heading down the wrong track: for the build just in general 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Thorny