OT: Weather (just weather)

[That Aud Smell]

10 minutes ago, French Collection said:

We had no rain here for weeks, the leaves were drying on the branches and falling all scrunched up.

It was drier than a muhfugger throughout September. Of course, a drought-driven drying of leaves is different than the leaves changing colour.

[Wyldnwoody44]

On 9/30/2023 at 11:41 AM, PASabreFan said:

Woody doesn't pull off bikinis. He tears them off with his teeth.

As for the weather in NWPA and WNY (I assume) this weekend, the late Tom Jolls said it all. Salubrious.

It seems peak colors have come a little early this year. We are approaching it quickly along the border. ASP beckons. I'll peep some leaves for Swampy and other exiles the next couple of days. They are so vivid. Second year in a row after some disappointing displays in recent years. September's seasonably warm days and very chilly nights, I thank you.

Explains why I need so many dental fillings eh? 😉

The leaves are splendid this week, driving over the hill into Ellicottville yesterday, the sun struck through and created almost a semicircular vortex on the back road I was driving. Very beautiful. 

Having an espresso on the front porch with this new view, it's one of the places that makes me feel relaxed. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

This TS was not so bad.

[French Collection]

38 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

This TS was not so bad.

Yeah, I was on standby for power outages and we were not required.

[Goldseatsaud]

Weather blows here

[Doohicksie]

[Night Train]

Don't know if the report changed but the Sunday Bills game weather in Foxboro was rain and wind. Ugh...

[Night Train]

 Living North of Buffalo, I had zero issues with the weather since May.

 At times, it was a little cooler than normal but still clear and dry most of the time . Being retired, I measure how often I can spend outside in the yard and on my deck. I never had a long stretch where I couldn't be outside enjoying the fresh air. Watching the news and seeing what the rest of the world was going through with weather, I feel blessed. 

[matter2003]

Theoretically we should have a below average winter for Snow and possibly a much below average winter.  the most snow we have had in a strong El Nino year before was like 78 inches...usually it's 55 inches or lower.  

Then again, the Lake has never been this warm either.

 

[Doohicksie]

Lots of rain tonight.  They said we may get as much as 7 inches by dawn.  Crazy.

[Doohicksie]

Just saw the weather report: Some areas have gotten over TEN INCHES of rain today. We've gotten about 3" with probably another 3" by dawn.
 

[matter2003]

6 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Just saw the weather report: Some areas have gotten over TEN INCHES of rain today. We've gotten about 3" with probably another 3" by dawn.
 

WTF??  Where are you at?  Down by that hurricane?

[Doohicksie]

There's just a string of rain stretching from Texas to Iowa that's very slow moving.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

It's a lot like winter here today.

Not even a week ago we were at the beach and it was 25 degrees.

[matter2003]

17 hours ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

It's a lot like winter here today.

Not even a week ago we were at the beach and it was 25 degrees.

People go to the beach when it is 25 degrees out?  Are you part of the Polar Bear Club?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

2 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

People go to the beach when it is 25 degrees out?  Are you part of the Polar Bear Club?

Centigrade.  Sorry for the confusion.  I'm no Polar Bear.  They are very cute and all, but I don't like the cold that much.

[matter2003]

13 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Centigrade.  Sorry for the confusion.  I'm no Polar Bear.  They are very cute and all, but I don't like the cold that much.

Ah!  I should have noticed the NS for Nova Scotia!  

Is it like Greenland up there where the ocean keeps you warmer than you would expect in winter?

Edited November 2, 2023 by matter2003

[Sabres Fan in NS]

3 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Ah!  I should have noticed the NS for Nova Scotia!  

Is it like Greenland up there where the ocean keeps you warmer than you would expect in winter?

No worries.

Yes.  The Atlantic keeps us warmer than inland.  Also more moist so if the wind is right we have a bit of a Lake Erie effect.  Yesterday we had about 6 inches of snow (converted that for yous) and just a few miles inland they had very little.

[matter2003]

4 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

No worries.

Yes.  The Atlantic keeps us warmer than inland.  Also more moist so if the wind is right we have a bit of a Lake Erie effect.  Yesterday we had about 6 inches of snow (converted that for yous) and just a few miles inland they had very little.

I checked out the climate and the average winter temps are pretty much almost the same as Buffalo's which is crazy for how much farther North you are.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Our first Nor-Easter of the season is expected tomorrow afternoon and into the night. 

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/hourly-weather-forecast/nova-scotia/terence-bay?wx_auto_reload=

At least it's warm and won't be snow.  That amount of rain would be measured in feet of snow.

 

[That Aud Smell]

Always a bit ominous when the National Weather Service tells you nearly a week in advance that a potentially significant LES event is coming. Quote from the local NWS forecaster's discussion:

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

... ... LAKE EFFECT SNOW BECOMING LIKELY LATE THIS PERIOD...  ...

Later Tuesday night with the passage of a cold front, deeper mixing will transport stronger wind gusts aloft to the surface, with near advisory level wind gusts for not only WNY, but also areas east of Lake Ontario. Still remaining breezy Wednesday with cold air deepening aloft. Highs Wednesday will occur early in the day for WNY, while a later cold front passage may allow for temperatures to rise a bit east of Lake Ontario before cooling through the afternoon hours. While the widespread synoptic rain will be ending to the east, the beginnings of a lake effect event will be starting, first off Lake Erie and then Lake Ontario. Thermal profiles during the daylight hours support mainly rain, but with cold air advection aloft, a change over to snow will occur by evening hours.

From a climatological standpoint the pattern supports a significant lake effect snow event with the placement and depth of the low pressure system.  ... This would include the metro areas of Buffalo and Watertown. ... One concern with this event is the available synoptic moisture. While the pattern supports significant lake effect snow, the deeper synoptic moisture will carry northward of our region with the surface low. ... Still many details to iron out in the next few days as far as band placement and intensity goes.  ... [T]he lake effect snow potentially carrying on deep into the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Passing shortwaves aloft from the upstream mid/upper level low will bring some oscillation to the bands of lake effect snow Thursday and onwards. Regardless of where the bands eventually setup travel disruptions are becoming likely from the lake snows, so stay tuned as the forecast becomes fine tuned.

[SwampD]

On 11/17/2023 at 10:14 AM, That Aud Smell said:

Always a bit ominous when the National Weather Service tells you nearly a week in advance that a potentially significant LES event is coming. Quote from the local NWS forecaster's discussion:

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

... ... LAKE EFFECT SNOW BECOMING LIKELY LATE THIS PERIOD...  ...

Later Tuesday night with the passage of a cold front, deeper mixing will transport stronger wind gusts aloft to the surface, with near advisory level wind gusts for not only WNY, but also areas east of Lake Ontario. Still remaining breezy Wednesday with cold air deepening aloft. Highs Wednesday will occur early in the day for WNY, while a later cold front passage may allow for temperatures to rise a bit east of Lake Ontario before cooling through the afternoon hours. While the widespread synoptic rain will be ending to the east, the beginnings of a lake effect event will be starting, first off Lake Erie and then Lake Ontario. Thermal profiles during the daylight hours support mainly rain, but with cold air advection aloft, a change over to snow will occur by evening hours.

From a climatological standpoint the pattern supports a significant lake effect snow event with the placement and depth of the low pressure system.  ... This would include the metro areas of Buffalo and Watertown. ... One concern with this event is the available synoptic moisture. While the pattern supports significant lake effect snow, the deeper synoptic moisture will carry northward of our region with the surface low. ... Still many details to iron out in the next few days as far as band placement and intensity goes.  ... [T]he lake effect snow potentially carrying on deep into the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Passing shortwaves aloft from the upstream mid/upper level low will bring some oscillation to the bands of lake effect snow Thursday and onwards. Regardless of where the bands eventually setup travel disruptions are becoming likely from the lake snows, so stay tuned as the forecast becomes fine tuned.

Wow. So, last year there was the worst storm ever in Buffalo. Will there be a second one a year later? Kinda crazy.

[Weave]

Looks like todays weather models are starting to backtrack on that forecast.

[That Aud Smell]

16 hours ago, Weave said:

Looks like todays weather models are starting to backtrack on that forecast.

They’re in full retreat. Thank God. 

This is an unusual occurrence for the NWS — to make a proclamation several days out about a LES event being likely (pending only precise locations) and then back off that completely. Usually, the NWS just waits and then doesn’t need to backtrack when models change. But after the storms of 2022, I think they’re eager to give as much advance notice as possible.

[Indabuff]

Goddam snow.  I'm not ready for this ***** yet.