OT: Weather (just weather)

[Doohicksie]

On 8/7/2024 at 4:21 PM, Night Train said:

This weather is getting more and more extreme around the globe.  I feel for my kids. I'm only around for a little more. Concerning. 

Not if you talk to my 82-year-old neighbor down the street.  "We had hot summers when I was a kid too.  And cold winters.  I trust my own eyes over these whackadoodle 'weathermen.'  What do they know?"

Edited October 1 by Doohicksie

[Doohicksie]

On 9/27/2024 at 9:53 AM, PASabreFan said:

Almost Oct. 1 and very little color change in the hills of northern PA. It's disconcerting.

We've actually had some cool fronts through north Texas.  Low 60s in the morning, about 90 in the afternoon.... with a continued cooling trend.  I'll take it.

[Night Train]

Since I retired 7 years ago, the weather North of Buffalo has been summer like for at least 5 months of the year for the most part. May into October. I spend  far more time outside than planned, which is fantastic.

October 1st and I just cut the lawn in shorts. Weekend is warm again so I made dinner reservations outside on a restaurant patio Saturday. 

[Demoted]

First day of October and it's 91 with heat index of 104 here in Florida. Usually the temps are going down but this is August weather.

 

Last year this exact date was temps of 86 with a heat index of 91.

Edited October 1 by Demoted

[Big Guava]

12 hours ago, Demoted said:

First day of October and it's 91 with heat index of 104 here in Florida. Usually the temps are going down but this is August weather.

 

Last year this exact date was temps of 86 with a heat index of 91.

Florida basically has summer from mid March til mid November 🤣

Edited October 2 by Big Guava

[Demoted]

3 hours ago, Big Guava said:

Florida basically has summer from mid March til mid November 🤣

Never been this bad.

[mjd1001]

8 hours ago, Big Guava said:

Florida basically has summer from mid March til mid November 🤣

Depends on what part of Florida I guess.

I used to live in Florida, still own a house there, and my wife's family lives there so we visit once or twice a year...one time usually in December or January for 7-10 days. 

We were there in Mid-January this year and Early January last year, and both times  it was in the low-to-mid 80's a few of the days (and a bit sticky on top of that). So much so that my wife, who I'll admit doesn't like 'hotter weather' wouldn't even take an evening walk with me around the neighborhood because it was too hot.  Treasure coast area Jupiter/Stuart/PSL.

[Stoner]

Is today the day we leave that old Johnny Cash song? Ain't seen the sun since I don't know when.

[Demoted]

Here comes Milton.

[Gatorman0519]

13 hours ago, Demoted said:

Here comes Milton.

Yeah I live a few blocks from the Sebastian river on the border with Indian River county. Hopefully the core goes up north of Cape Canaveral so I don’t have to shutter up. 

[matter2003]

Tampa Bay is f**ked. 

Milton exploded to a Cat 3, then 2 hours later a Cat 4, and is going to be a Cat 5 within a short time as it currently has 155 mph winds and is only 2 mph short of Cat 5 strength now.

All I can say is...good luck. Anyone who decides to stay, make sure to write your next of kin with permanent marker on your forearm so they can be notified.

Edited October 7 by matter2003

[mjd1001]

46 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Tampa Bay is f**ked. 

Milton exploded to a Cat 3, then 2 hours later a Cat 4, and is going to be a Cat 5 within a short time as it currently has 155 mph winds and is only 2 mph short of Cat 5 strength now.

All I can say is...good luck. Anyone who decides to stay, make sure to write your next of kin with permanent marker on your forearm so they can be notified.

Well, wind shear is supposed to pick up rapidly in the 12 or so hours before landfall which is why they are expecting it to weaken before landfall.

For those in Tampa that want to look at the good side of things, the NHC 'official' forcast shows it going into Tampa directly. But, it appears very few of the models they use show that.  A couple have it as a close hit just to the north, a couple have it way to the north, and a few to the south. At this exact moment, the 'line' is an average of them.  So, there is a good chance it will be bad, but not a direct hit on Tampa...probably just to the north or to the south.

Over the past 5-10 years, the one model that has done the best with forcasting the track/path has been the main Euro model. It isn't great at 'guessing' strength a few days in advance, but it generally gets the path correct (at least more than the others). That one this morning showed a landfall as a weak Cat 3 just barely north of Tampa/St. Pete.  I guess each 6 hours we get closer will tell us more.

Edited October 7 by mjd1001

[matter2003]

32 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Well, wind shear is supposed to pick up rapidly in the 12 or so hours before landfall which is why they are expecting it to weaken before landfall.

For those in Tampa that want to look at the good side of things, the NHC 'official' forcast shows it going into Tampa directly. But, it appears very few of the models they use show that.  A couple have it as a close hit just to the north, a couple have it way to the north, and a few to the south. At this exact moment, the 'line' is an average of them.  So, there is a good chance it will be bad, but not a direct hit on Tampa...probably just to the north or to the south.

Over the past 5-10 years, the one model that has done the best with forcasting the track/path has been the main Euro model. It isn't great at 'guessing' strength a few days in advance, but it generally gets the path correct (at least more than the others). That one this morning showed a landfall as a weak Cat 3 just barely north of Tampa/St. Pete.  I guess each 6 hours we get closer will tell us more.

 

The most damage isn't done by the wind speeds necessarily, it's done by the storm surge and as all the storm wall/sand bag protections that were in place have already been destroyed by Helene, there is nothing left to protect from another massive storm surge so close behind it. So even if it misses slightly in one direction or another, in general that whole area is f**ked.

Edited October 7 by matter2003

[LTS]

My one team member (former employee) lives in St. Pete.  Not even done cleaning up from Helene and just spent the past few days securing everything and is evacuating today.

This angle of this storm is a bit unusual as it appears to be going across Florida rather than up the coast. That will make for some serious storm surge. I was down there when the F named storm (cat 1) went up the coast in early August.  That was plenty bad. I really hope things fare better than it seems they might.

[Demoted]

175mph winds with Milton. He was picked on in school and it's revenge time.

[Weave]

31 minutes ago, LTS said:

My one team member (former employee) lives in St. Pete.  Not even done cleaning up from Helene and just spent the past few days securing everything and is evacuating today.

This angle of this storm is a bit unusual as it appears to be going across Florida rather than up the coast. That will make for some serious storm surge. I was down there when the F named storm (cat 1) went up the coast in early August.  That was plenty bad. I really hope things fare better than it seems they might.

Close friends are inland, but in the bullseye currently.  They were in Fort Meyers for the hurricane that went through there a few years ago.  Now they have this one coming at them.  No storm surge concerns but TS level winds, rain and tornadoes sure are.

I can’t imagine ever deciding that Fl is a good place to buy property.

[DHawerchuk10]

On 10/6/2024 at 8:41 AM, Gatorman0519 said:

Yeah I live a few blocks from the Sebastian river on the border with Indian River county. Hopefully the core goes up north of Cape Canaveral so I don’t have to shutter up. 

I'm not far from you but further north (Melbourne area), but going to shutter up tomorrow anyway so I don't get caught.  Praying for the people of Tampa.  Looking quite grim for that part of the coast. 

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Close friends are inland, but in the bullseye currently.  They were in Fort Meyers for the hurricane that went through there a few years ago.  Now they have this one coming at them.  No storm surge concerns but TS level winds, rain and tornadoes sure are.

I can’t imagine ever deciding that Fl is a good place to buy property.

Yeah, tell me about it.

I lived in Florida a while ago, bought a house, bought an investment property. When we moved back up north we sold the house we lived in but kept the investment house.  Sure, over the last decade or so its gone up in value, but I wish we would have sold it, and may do so now.  The costs are skyrocketing.  Its not just insurance (which has  tripled in the past 10 years.) The property taxes are going up rapidly.  Homeowners association fee is more than double what it was 10 years ago.  From the family we have there we hear auto insurance has been going up about 10% per year. 

We visited last year for a week and we drove. No Hurricane, no MAJOR storms, just a few days of very heavy rain, and the day before we were leaving, we couldn't find gas. Had to go to 4 gas stations to find one that wasn't out of gas (Stuart, FL area).  The heavy rain caused so much flooding that some roads were closed, and I think part of I95 was closed for a short period of time, but basically a bunch of gas stations didn't get gas delivered to them.

If that is what happens in 2023 during a heavy rainfall, I can't imagine what its going to be like if a moderate hurricane hits a heavily populated area.

[Big Guava]

2 hours ago, Demoted said:

175mph winds with Milton. He was picked on in school and it's revenge time.

Someone took his stapler in Tampa and he is coming to get it back. 🤣🤣

 

3 hours ago, LTS said:

My one team member (former employee) lives in St. Pete.  Not even done cleaning up from Helene and just spent the past few days securing everything and is evacuating today.

This angle of this storm is a bit unusual as it appears to be going across Florida rather than up the coast. That will make for some serious storm surge. I was down there when the F named storm (cat 1) went up the coast in early August.  That was plenty bad. I really hope things fare better than it seems they might.

 

Storm surge max estimated at 11-15 feet currently...and all the protections they had against it have already been destroyed by Helene. Situation is grim for those who decide to stay 😳

Edited October 7 by Big Guava

[Demoted]

 

 

[repster]

Scotty Bowman has a condo in Sarasota and is on the ground floor where he stays.

No way he’s there now, but it’s beachfront and vulnerable to storm surge.

Fingers crossed for his unit, and for everyone else of course.

Edited October 8 by repster

[Doohicksie]

8 hours ago, repster said:

Scotty Bowman has a condo in Sarasota and is on the ground floor where he stays.

No way he’s there now, but it’s beachfront and vulnerable to storm surge.

Fingers crossed for his unit, and for everyone else of course.

Frankly a millionaire's winter home is the least of my worries.

[SwampD]

Anyone who is able to leave and chooses to stay,… not sure what there is to say.

[Demoted]

13 hours ago, SwampD said:

Anyone who is able to leave and chooses to stay,… not sure what there is to say.

Natural selection takes place in those moments.  The biggest problem isn't these people staying, it's that if they make it through the emergency responders are put at risk if they need saving.

Edited October 9 by Demoted

[Stoner]

I talked about how terrible meteorologists are back in April with their horribly botched eclipse forecast. That didn't hurt anyone.

But I watched some covg of Milton yesterday. One meteorologist said the eye would pass directly over downtown Tampa. On a nightly network newscast they showed a future track of the storm as it passed over Tampa and then went across the state. The reporter was standing on a map with the radar superimposed. Cool effect but of course nonsense.

Almost inarguably covg like that will cost lives and property. Because guess what the real pros at the National Hurrican Center, which puts out a cone of probability, hours later said the storm would track much further to the south.