What is this team is missing to compete consistently?

[JohnC]

22 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Why do I think Johnson won’t sign?  His father works for the Ducks, he’s a California kid and most importantly he gets to choose his destiny as soon as the college season ends.  Yes the Sabres have shown there is an opportunity here, but from his standpoint why go to Buffalo when he can choose from all 32 teams and choose a equal or better opportunity closer to home.   That isn’t to say he won’t sign here, but I think it’s unlikely at this point.  Even if he did sign, like Levi, he is facing at least one year in the A before he even has a chance of seeing ice time in Buffalo.  We can’t ask a rookie to solve our depth issues anyway. 

 

I'm aware that his father works for the Ducks. But why would that be more of an influencing factor than going to an organization that is more likely give him a chance to play sooner rather than later? From a career standpoint Buffalo would be a good landing spot, even after considering all the other team options. And the way the pro sports world functions you can be employed in an organization and then after a few years of franchise failures become unemployed. My point here is that where your daddy currently works shouldn't be as important a consideration as it may seem to be. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

I'm aware that his father works for the Ducks. But why would that be more of an influencing factor than going to an organization that is more likely give him a chance to play sooner rather than later? From a career standpoint Buffalo would be a good landing spot, even after considering all the other team options. And the way the pro sports world functions you can be employed in an organization and then after a few years of franchise failures become unemployed. My point here is that where your daddy currently works shouldn't be as important a consideration as it may seem to be. 

The best argument for him signing here is that we can burn a year of his ELC.  The best argument for him not signing, as I mentioned in my post, is that he can choose from 32 options when his college season ends instead of just one.  I think he chooses the 32 options.  That said odds favor him playing at least one year in the A before joining any NHL team, so even if he signs, he’s unlikely to provide immediate help.  

Again, KA can’t rely on prospects to fix the problems on D, he must go outside the organization.

[JohnC]

On 11/15/2022 at 2:35 PM, French Collection said:

It seems the LHD/RHD lines have been blurred due to necessity this year. Dahlin, Power, Mule and Bryson have played on their off side. Johnson would provide depth and perhaps he can play his off side as well. He can probably become one of the 6 and maybe be top 4 if he reaches his ceiling. I still want to see him sign with the Sabres.

Portillo and Levi could be the combo of the future. More teams are relying on tandems vs a full time #1. Portillo hopefully sees an opportunity in Buffalo and will sign.

They aren’t gone until they are.

You make some good points. The difference I see between Johnson, the defenseman, and Portillo, the goalie, is that Portillo will competing with Levi who is on the same development timeline. Whereas in the Johnson case, he more likely will be able to earn a spot on the roster and play sooner because he will more quickly be ready to fill a need on the blueline. It's not inconceivable that he could play in the NHL in his first pro year.  

 

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The best argument for him signing here is that we can burn a year of his ELC.  The best argument for him not signing, as I mentioned in my post, is that he can choose from 32 options when his college season ends instead of just one.  I think he chooses the 32 options.  That said odds favor him playing at least one year in the A before joining any NHL team, so even if he signs, he’s unlikely to provide immediate help.  

Again, KA can’t rely on prospects to fix the problems on D, he must go outside the organization.

I agree with you that KA has to bolster the blueline. However, I don't believe it is going to be done on your timeline. I think that more likely it will be done in the offseason. 

I'm not precluding that he considers all his options. He would be a fool not to. But what I am saying is that after scanning the market Buffalo would be a good situation for him right away because there is a chance that he could earn a NHL roster spot sooner than if he went elsewhere. And as I said in the prior post I don't believe that the father factor will be as important an influence in his decision as you seem to think. 

 

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

You make some good points. The difference I see between Johnson, the defenseman, and Portillo, the goalie, is that Portillo will competing with Levi who is on the same development timeline. Whereas in the Johnson case, he more likely will be able to earn a spot on the roster and play sooner because he will more quickly be ready to fill a need on the blueline. It's not inconceivable that he could play in the NHL in his first pro year.  

 

I agree with you that KA has to bolster the blueline. However, I don't believe it is going to be done on your timeline. I think that more likely it will be done in the offseason. 

I'm not precluding that he considers all his options. He would be a fool not to. But what I am saying is that after scanning the market Buffalo would be a good situation for him right away because there is a chance that he could earn a NHL roster spot sooner than if he went elsewhere. And as I said in the prior post I don't believe that the father factor will be as important an influence in his decision as you seem to think. 

 

 

It's really frustrating that another D wasn't scooped up either around the time Lyubushkin was signed or just before the season started to alleviate somebody else's cap pinch.  But agree w/ you that it is very doubtful that gets addressed until the offseason.

So, basically, we need to see Samuelsson come back which'll be huge, Lyubushkin get healthy, and a commitment to starting to focus on the defensive aspects of the game.  Granato claims teaching O is hard & teaching D is easy.  Would be nice to see him actually demonstrate/prove that.  He's got the O going pretty well off the rush, still would like to see 5v5 be better off the cycle.  Liked that the PPs were actually moving the puck last night even though they didn't have much to show for that movement.  So, he's still working on improving the O and there is additional room for more improvement.  But for the love of all that is good & Holy, PLEASE spend some time on disrupting a cycle without losing track of a forward and work on the PK.  

Wonder if part of the problem w/ the PK is that they practice against the non-dynamic PP unit so when other teams actually WORK a PP they aren't ready for it.  The other part of the problem IMHO is except for Asplund none of the regular PK Fs were in that role before either this season or sometime middle of last year.  They just don't have enough experience w/ that yet.  (Actually am OK w/ that aspect of the development of the players - Girgensons & Okposo probably each have at most 2 more years on this team.  Somebody needs to know how to kill a penalty besides them.)

[thewookie1]

How's this?

DeMelo and WPG's 3rd for Olofsson, Fitzgerald, and a later pick?

The issue is I can't even think of any intriguing physically active players available.  

[Sabres Fan in NS]

They need to mature in many ways.

This is the youngest team in the NHL (I think I heard that someplace).  Long losing streaks happen.  Even to the best teams in this league.  This had to be expected from the Sabres who are not one of the best teams.

The Sabres will be fine.

[LGR4GM]

just gonna leave this here...

 

[Weave]

22 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

just gonna leave this here...

 

The last 2 seasons I’ve wanted to take the Sabres age distribution and compare it to every playoff team from the previous season to show the point that yes, Ethel, we have too many kids, and not enough diversity on this roster to think we can contend for a playoff spot.  We are too monolithic.

Alas, I are lazy and haven’t made that post.

[LTS]

3 hours ago, Weave said:

The last 2 seasons I’ve wanted to take the Sabres age distribution and compare it to every playoff team from the previous season to show the point that yes, Ethel, we have too many kids, and not enough diversity on this roster to think we can contend for a playoff spot.  We are too monolithic.

Alas, I are lazy and haven’t made that post.

We are too young.  I think at some point the youth gets filtered out via trade to diversify the roster. But, right now I think the youth remains so they can make determinations on which youth need to go.. just gotta hope those changes are made at the right time.

But if you look at the youngest 7 players on the team, that's a helluva group with Krebs perhaps being the least highly thought of on this board.

[Taro T]

34 minutes ago, LTS said:

We are too young.  I think at some point the youth gets filtered out via trade to diversify the roster. But, right now I think the youth remains so they can make determinations on which youth need to go.. just gotta hope those changes are made at the right time.

But if you look at the youngest 7 players on the team, that's a helluva group with Krebs perhaps being the least highly thought of on this board.

Agreed, they are too young.  And there's a concern that with such reliance on youth they're set up to be Edmonton (pre-McJesus) East.

That said, and definitely don't want to see this suffering going forward - next year they need to be playoff caliber & still believe they can be in the mix even w/ this annoyingly frustrating stretch this year.  But (and they'd better be fun before then) the kids here now should be fun to watch when they start hitting their primes.  And there should be kids stepping into the lower roles and because of their raw talent levels should be contributing as well.

[thewookie1]

So who would you guys target that would better our team and diversify its skill sets?

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, thewookie1 said:

So who would you guys target that would better our team and diversify its skill sets?

A couple of defensive D men to start.

I'd also add a forward or 2 who are higher skilled versions of Girgensons.  We do have diversified skills on our forwards, just it seems no one other than Girgensons willing to go into the dirty areas.  

Edited November 17, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[JohnC]

21 hours ago, Taro T said:

 

It's really frustrating that another D wasn't scooped up either around the time Lyubushkin was signed or just before the season started to alleviate somebody else's cap pinch.  But agree w/ you that it is very doubtful that gets addressed until the offseason.

So, basically, we need to see Samuelsson come back which'll be huge, Lyubushkin get healthy, and a commitment to starting to focus on the defensive aspects of the game.  Granato claims teaching O is hard & teaching D is easy.  Would be nice to see him actually demonstrate/prove that.  He's got the O going pretty well off the rush, still would like to see 5v5 be better off the cycle.  Liked that the PPs were actually moving the puck last night even though they didn't have much to show for that movement.  So, he's still working on improving the O and there is additional room for more improvement.  But for the love of all that is good & Holy, PLEASE spend some time on disrupting a cycle without losing track of a forward and work on the PK.  

Wonder if part of the problem w/ the PK is that they practice against the non-dynamic PP unit so when other teams actually WORK a PP they aren't ready for it.  The other part of the problem IMHO is except for Asplund none of the regular PK Fs were in that role before either this season or sometime middle of last year.  They just don't have enough experience w/ that yet.  (Actually am OK w/ that aspect of the development of the players - Girgensons & Okposo probably each have at most 2 more years on this team.  Somebody needs to know hopw to kill a penalty besides them.)

I agree with just about everything you said. There were opportunities this past offseason to get another quality third pairing type of defenseman that would have given the blue line more depth when the inevitable injuries happened. What makes it even more aggravating is that there was more than enough cap room to bring in another player, and also it would not have cut into the playing time and development of any of our young players on the backend. (I am more than sympathetic to @GASabresIUFAN 's frustration with the GM's seemingly passive attitude toward bringing in players from the outside that can help.)

Granato has made it known a number of times on WGR that his first priority with working with young players is to emphasize the offense, then work on instituting a defensive system. It's apparent to anyone who is watching the games is that he better start putting more emphasis on the defensive side of the game. He needs to balance out the offensive/defensive ratio or this team will fall into another extended malaise. 

The problem I have with the PP is that the puck is being moved around the perimeter. Although the time of possession is high the high scoring chances are limited. Shoot the freaking puck and put more bodies around net!

I was watching the game last night and I got the same sensation that I have gotten for a number of games: It seems that other teams are playing with more urgency and effort while the Sabres seem to be more complacent. When you are on an extended losing streak you have to play with more desperation. I just didn't see it last night. It's sad to say that I wasn't satisfied; I ended up turning the station to a NBA basketball game.  

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I agree with just about everything you said. There were opportunities this past offseason to get another quality third pairing type of defenseman that would have given the blue line more depth when the inevitable injuries happened. What makes it even more aggravating is that there was more than enough cap room to bring in another player, and also it would not have cut into the playing time and development of any of our young players on the backend. (I am more than sympathetic to @GASabresIUFAN 's frustration with the GM's seemingly passive attitude toward bringing in players from the outside that can help.)

Granato has made it known a number of times on WGR that his first priority with working with young players is to emphasize the offense, then work on instituting a defensive system. It's apparent to anyone who is watching the games is that he better start putting more emphasis on the defensive side of the game. He needs to balance out the offensive/defensive ratio or this team will fall into another extended malaise. 

The problem I have with the PP is that the puck is being moved around the perimeter. Although the time of possession is high the high scoring chances are limited. Shoot the freaking puck and put more bodies around net!

I was watching the game last night and I got the same sensation that I have gotten for a number of games: It seems that other teams are playing with more urgency and effort while the Sabres seem to be more complacent. When you are on an extended losing streak you have to play with more desperation. I just didn't see it last night. It's sad to say that I wasn't satisfied; I ended up turning the station to a NBA basketball game.  

Don't believe it's complacency so much as they're gripping the sticks too tight leading to bad shots & bad passes which kills the offense and ends up becoming an amplified feedback loop.  And at that point they now all try to do it themselves and nobody except the true 1st liners win those 1v1 battles cleanly consistently.

Being forced to have Power on the 1st D pairing because they have no other remotely adequate options with Samuelsson out, Lyubushkin a shell of himself (hoping it's playing through that injury that has him playing so brutally; if it's mental, we're hosed, just sitting a couple of games won't make it better), and Bryson exposed for being the 6/7 he is.  Getting Samuelsson back will help a lot as the top pairing should be able to pick back up as a true top pairing & Power can anchor the 2nd pairing.  Should Buusch get his issues sorted out they can have an effective 2nd pair and still like Jokiharju & Bryson (or Pilut) as a true 3rd pairing but don't like any of them as a 1st or 2nd pairing guy.

Anybody else notice the 2 games they've looked the most lost out there were 2 of the 3 games Okposo missed?  Coincidence, correlation, or causation?

[Pimlach]

What is the team missing?  Experience and goaltending. 

Analytics are interesting but sometimes a simple list gets the job done

• Rookies - Power, Quinn, Peterka
• Other players with less than 80 NHL games - Krebs, Samuelsson, Fitzgerald, UPL. 
• and Cozens is still just 21. 

7 of 20 players that do not have a full season of NHL experience.  One third of the team.  

[JohnC]

6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Don't believe it's complacency so much as they're gripping the sticks too tight leading to bad shots & bad passes which kills the offense and ends up becoming an amplified feedback loop.  And at that point they now all try to do it themselves and nobody except the true 1st liners win those 1v1 battles cleanly consistently.

Being forced to have Power on the 1st D pairing because they have no other remotely adequate options with Samuelsson out, Lyubushkin a shell of himself (hoping it's playing through that injury that has him playing so brutally; if it's mental, we're hosed, just sitting a couple of games won't make it better), and Bryson exposed for being the 6/7 he is.  Getting Samuelsson back will help a lot as the top pairing should be able to pick back up as a true top pairing & Power can anchor the 2nd pairing.  Should Buusch get his issues sorted out they can have an effective 2nd pair and still like Jokiharju & Bryson (or Pilut) as a true 3rd pairing but don't like any of them as a 1st or 2nd pairing guy.

Anybody else notice the 2 games they've looked the most lost out there were 2 of the 3 games Okposo missed?  Coincidence, correlation, or causation?

I believe that Lyubushkin is hurt. He's the type of player who plays up to his moderate talents. He adds value beyond his talent level because he adds an element of physicality that is not in surplus on this roster.  However, when a player is limited talent-wise and has to contend with a plaguing injury then his utility is diminished. But that brings up the issue of missing the opportunity to acquire more depth players in the offseason when there were opportunities to do so. 

With respect to the impact of missing Okposo and whether there is a correlation or causation as to how this team plays when he is missing, it again goes to the issue of depth and roster fragility. Injuries are part of the landscape. What happens if Tage or Dahlin gets hurt? Is the ship then torpedoed? 

The Sabres have a number of promising young players in JJ, Power, Quinn, Samuelsson etc. But so do many teams. It's just the thought that this team could be out of  playoff contention by New Year's is dispiriting. Just think that Jack, O'Reilly, Reinhart, Risto, Ullmark, Hall, Montour all wanted out and are now happier with their new teams. They simply got tired of being enmeshed in a losing environment. Will that depressing losing environment wear down players like Dahlin and Power to the point that they will seek better options when their contracts come up? Winning has a positive medicinal effect when wounded! Right now it is not at a level that will create a positive environment for the emerging players. 

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

What is the team missing?  Experience and goaltending. 

Analytics are interesting but sometimes a simple list gets the job done

• Rookies - Power, Quinn, Peterka
• Other players with less than 80 NHL games - Krebs, Samuelsson, Fitzgerald, UPL. 
• and Cozens is still just 21. 

7 of 20 players that do not have a full season of NHL experience.  One third of the team.  

And only 7 regulars that are 27 or older and 2 of them are the goalies.   (Suppose Hinostroza could be added, but as he's the 13th F when all are healthy didn't include him.)

As we all know, these guys are skewed crazily towards youth.

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I believe that Lyubushkin is hurt. He's the type of player who plays up to his moderate talents. He adds value beyond his talent level because he adds an element of physicality that is not in surplus on this roster.  However, when a player is limited talent-wise and has to contend with a plaguing injury then his utility is diminished. But that brings up the issue of missing the opportunity to acquire more depth players in the offseason when there were opportunities to do so. 

With respect to the impact of missing Okposo and whether there is a correlation or causation as to how this team plays when he is missing, it again goes to the issue of depth and roster fragility. Injuries are part of the landscape. What happens if Tage or Dahlin gets hurt? Is the ship then torpedoed? 

The Sabres have a number of promising young players in JJ, Power, Quinn, Samuelsson etc. But so do many teams. It's just the thought that this team could be out of  playoff contention by New Year's is dispiriting. Just think that Jack, O'Reilly, Reinhart, Risto, Ullmark, Hall, Montour all wanted out and are now happier with their new teams. They simply got tired of being enmeshed in a losing environment. Will that depressing losing environment wear down players like Dahlin and Power to the point that they will seek better options when their contracts come up? Winning has a positive medicinal effect when wounded! Right now it is not at a level that will create a positive environment for the emerging players. 

98% sure Lyubushkin is injured (and not just hurt) which is why the consistent drumbeat to put him in the pressbox for a week after Samuelsson is back.  He's of almost no use right now and is costing the team goals it can't afford to give up but he's still better than Fitzgerald even now.

Wasn't editorializing on Okposo, just happened to think of it now and threw it in there for whatever it's worth.

And to the 3rd paragraph - that's where the big fear of prioritizing development over wins fits in: nobody's losing their resolve over a few 2 game losing streaks when they have some victories over good clubs in the rear view mirror and they're seeing strides being made.  But should a 7 game L streak wind its way up to, say, 12 games then even for a guy like Tuch that desperately wanted to be a part of this rebuild, it becomes a long drive into the office for a morning skate or practice.

[PerreaultForever]

I thought this was the case using the old eye test so I looked it up. In terms of shots blocked per game we are second to last in the league with an average of 11 per game. Vegas is top with 20 per game. 

Also, although +/- isn't everything, it is worth noting Bryson is -12. 

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

A couple of defensive D men to start.

I'd also add a forward or 2 who are higher skilled versions of Girgensons.  We do have diversified skills on our forwards, just it seems no one other than Girgensons willing to go into the dirty areas.  

Well yes but who exactly fits that role.

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Well yes but who exactly fits that role.

Which one? in the off-season on Defense I mentioned guys like Schenn, Ruutta and others.  For the forward, Paguette from TB comes to mind.

 

Edited November 17, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[thewookie1]

Paquette retired

Issue is we already have 3 RHDs set up and Schenn is one too. 
 

Samuelsson - Dahlin

Power - Jokiharju

Bryson - Lybushkin 

 

[mjd1001]

-A little luck with having less injuries (Everyone gets them but it helps a lot.)

-At least one (hopefully 2) of the young guys (Krebs, Mitts, Cozens, Peterka, Quinn) to emerge this year as a 25 goal scorer, maybe a 30 goal guy in the next year or two.

-Slightly better goaltending (it has been up-and-down this year, a little bit more of the 'ups' and a little less of the 'downs')

-Young forwards better in their own zone.  I know many are yelling about the Defensemen and need to upgrade there. To me, I'll take an upgrade ANYWHERE, but a majority of the goals allowed have not been bad play by the D-men, but instead by the young fowards (same as listed above) who are out of position in their own end, just dont' get back to their own zone in time, or can't win a battle on the boards and give away pucks left and right.  When those young FORWARDS  get better in their own zone, this team will give up a lot less chances.

-Lyubushkin being 100% healthy would help. Before his injury he was rock solid. Not out of position ever. Since he came back, he is a step slower and a bit easier to get pushed around than before. Get the 'pre injury' Lyubushkin and that solves some of the back end issues.  Interesting that I listen to a lot of 590 on the radio out of Toronto, and a couple times per week they talk about how much the team misses him and many people would have liked for Toronto to have found a way to resign him..

Edited November 17, 2022 by mjd1001

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Paquette retired

Issue is we already have 3 RHDs set up and Schenn is one too. 
 

Samuelsson - Dahlin

Power - Jokiharju

Bryson - Lybushkin 

 

Why is that an issue?  Don't be so locked in to what their shooting hand is.  Dahlin is a LHD playing on the right side.  Bryson plays both sides equally mediocrely.  Also Schenn was just an example.  

[thewookie1]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

Why is that an issue?  Don't be so locked in to what their shooting hand is.  Dahlin is a LHD playing on the right side.  Bryson plays both sides equally mediocrely.  Also Schenn was just an example.  

Ironically many defensive Dman I’ve looked at are all RHDs. Even ones we wouldn’t be able to trade for. I wonder why