What is different this year so far, through 4 games...

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I love all the xG stats. I really do, but even they are lacking in that they are league averages. I agree that we need to lower it, but, three of the four teams we have played so far have names at the top of shooting lists. Our xGA were from guys with names like Draisaitl, McDavid, Barkov, Tkachuk(x2), Kadri, Huberdeau, etc.

I think it's sustainable.

Have to agree. I'm bought in. 

Of course, the last time I said that was the 10 game winning streak. 

But now I'm older and wiser wider

[matter2003]

Just now, Thorny said:

Have to agree. I'm bought in. 

Of course, the last time I said that was the 10 game winning streak. 

But now I'm older and wiser wider

And thornier?? 😂

[Weave]

33 minutes ago, Thorny said:

This is usually me. 

For whatever reason, I don't get that vibe this time around. I think a lot of it comes down to the fact we seemed to be running circles around teams early in the season other recent years, out there with something to prove where the other teams were just getting ready to shake off the rust. It looked like we were winning based on will power alone, until other teams started trying. 

This season, we haven't even played that well, for 60 minutes, in any of the games yet. Yesterday was closest. *But we are finding ways to win based on pure talent.*

I think that's it - I think we are just a good team now. I'll go ahead and say it.

We have had better players even in recent memory, we didn't get here by bringing in the best guy possible, there's just an overall level of talent that hasn't been here since probably 2012 when we drastically underachieved. 

No more Marcus Johansson at 2C. No more Messy Balls as a D pair. A deep roster w/talent. 

We've simply, finally, built a team with around the same amount of good players as other teams. 

It's excellent.

I think we are running circles around teams is because they are not in “in season” mode yet.  We won’t have the space we currently do very shortly, and those odd man rushes we are giving up way too often are going to result in more scores against as our goaltending levels out.

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, Weave said:

I think we are running circles around teams is because they are not in “in season” mode yet.  We won’t have the space we currently do very shortly, and those odd man rushes we are giving up way too often are going to result in more scores against as our goaltending levels out.

This might very well be true.

It might very well also be true that we are not “in season” mode yet either.

[Thorner]

15 minutes ago, Weave said:

I think we are running circles around teams is because they are not in “in season” mode yet.  We won’t have the space we currently do very shortly, and those odd man rushes we are giving up way too often are going to result in more scores against as our goaltending levels out.

My point is that we are NOT running circles around teams 

Agree on playing with dynamite re: goaltending 

[Taro T]

What's different?

Not the record.  3-1-0 vs 3-1-0.

They've played better teams though through the 1st 4 this time.   Because they don't have any true JAGs in the lineup (Fitzgerald likely is, but he's an injury replacement), most everybody except Lyubushkin, Quinn, & Peterka have played at least 1/2 of a season in Granato's system, and 90% of them are 1 year closer to their primes, they've increased their scoring by 50% playing against tougher competition.  Yes, they've given up 25% more goals, but replacing Moe-ray-all & the Yotes w/ NHL caliber squads will have that effect on things.  ;)

Yes, Comrie & Anderson are expected to be better than Anderson & Tokarski and will need to be significantly better to keep this up & make the playoffs or at least a run for them, but goaltending last year was very good at this point and stayed very good a couple more games until after Anderson was injured.  That HASN'T been different, yet.

The eye test says once they start playing middle of the pack teams rather than concensus contenders that this could be sustainable.  Really looking forward to tomorrow night's game to see if they can show it might actually be.

[DarthEbriate]

4 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

Starting the season with:

-Comrie in net

-Tuch and Krebs in the lineup to start season

-Power,Samuelsson in lineup to start season, Boosh here

-Mitts healthy (knock on wood) and in the lineup

-JJ and Quinn on the team.

Each is a big upgrade to the players they are replacing in the lineup.

Add that to the steps Dahlin, Tage and Cozens have taken and there is a huge difference in the team so far.

@Flashsabre has already covered it, but the difference is the lineup. This is the really solid March '22 lineup with extra additions and more experience for the kids. They'll continue to get better as they're really still in preseason mode (as is the opposition). 

Here's an early season lineup from last year compared with 10/20/22 @CGY:

Skinner - Cozens - Hinostroza                                 Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Asplund - Thompson - Olofsson                              Asplund - Mittelstadt - Olofsson
Girgensons - Eakin - Okposo                                   Peterka - Cozens - Hinostroza
Bjork - Ruotsalainen - Caggiula                               Girgensons - Krebs - Okposo
(Hayden)                                                                   (Quinn, Sheahan)
INJ: Oglevie, Mittelstadt                                           INJ: N/A

Dahlin - Butcher                                                        Samuelsson - Dahlin
Bryson - Miller                                                           Power - Jokiharju
Hagg - Pysyk                                                             Bryson - Fitzgerald
INJ: Samuelsson, Jokiharju                                      INJ: Lyubushkin

Tokarski                                                                     Comrie
Anderson                                                                   Anderson

[matter2003]

3 hours ago, Weave said:

I think we are running circles around teams is because they are not in “in season” mode yet.  We won’t have the space we currently do very shortly, and those odd man rushes we are giving up way too often are going to result in more scores against as our goaltending levels out.

I mean I don't know...since we got Middlestadt and Semuelsson back from injury and got Tuch/Krebs in the Eichel trade then added Powers to the lineup at the end of last year, we have played at a 105 point pace over the last 32 games(19-10-3).  

I'm not going to say we are going to sustain that pace over the entire year because I still think we are more of an 87-90 point team, but to think they aren't significantly better than what we have seen in recent memory seems to be REALLY trying hard to discount what they have turned into based on actual evidence over almost 40% of a regular season.

Stop waiting for the other shoe to drop, it's not happening this time. The evidence is all around you. Stop seeing what you want to see based on ghosts of the past instead of what's there.

Edited October 21, 2022 by matter2003

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, matter2003 said:

I mean I don't know...since we got Middlestadt and Semuelsson back from injury and got Tuch/Krebs in the Eichel trade then added Powers to the lineup at the end of last year, we have played at a 105 point pace over the last 32 games.  

I'm not going to say we are going to sustain that pace over the entire year because I still think we are more of an 87-90 point team, but to think they aren't significantly better than what we have seen in recent memory seems to be REALLY trying hard to discount what they have turned into based on actual evidence over almost 40% of a regular season.

If we are playing this way/tabulating our record in this fashion after ~ 20 games, theres's no reason the expectation shouldn't shift to being "Playoffs". It was the baseline expectation in 18-19 as well after that hot start - if anyone peeps the math for how poorly they had to (and did) play to miss the playoffs, after sitting where they sat after 20 odd games, it's...nasty. 

There's also that old stat about "teams in a playoff spot at American thanksgiving"

If the Sabres look like this 20-25 games in, we should make the playoffs. 

[matter2003]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

If we are playing this way/tabulating our record in this fashion after ~ 20 games, theres's no reason the expectation shouldn't shift to being "Playoffs". It was the baseline expectation in 18-19 as well after that hot start - if anyone peeps the math for how poorly they had to (and did) play to miss the playoffs, after sitting where they sat after 20 odd games, it's...nasty. 

There's also that old stat about "teams in a playoff spot at American thanksgiving"

If the Sabres look like this 20-25 games in, we should make the playoffs. 

 

I mean it's possible they take a big leap and just skip the "almost", I just think our division is a little too loaded at the top...although if we could play Toronto every game I'd take it...they didnt know what to do with us last year.

Edited October 21, 2022 by matter2003

[Thorner]

Just now, matter2003 said:

 

I mean it's possible they take a big leap and just skip the "almost", I just think our division is a little too loaded at the top.

Could be the "ahead of schedule" year

[Buffalonill]

I see things that will get exposed soon and it  Aint gonna be pretty. 

I know there's a poster that sees it also but He doesn't want to "be that guy" 

 

Edited October 21, 2022 by Buffalonill

[Curt]

6 hours ago, Weave said:

Early part of the season is always a little more lucy-goosey.  Teams will be tightening up over the next few weeks.  What they look like now won’t be sustainable come Thanksgiving.  Lets see how well they tighten things up in November.

This is definitely true of the NHL in general.  More goals per game are scored early in the season.

I don’t think that’s the reason the Sabres won a couple games though.

[Curt]

4 hours ago, Weave said:

I think we are running circles around teams is because they are not in “in season” mode yet.  We won’t have the space we currently do very shortly, and those odd man rushes we are giving up way too often are going to result in more scores against as our goaltending levels out.

I don’t think the Sabres are “running circles around teams” at all.  They have been outplayed and out chances in 3 out of 4 games.  And even that game where they mostly outplayed the opposition, they gave up 40+ shots and were outshot.

The Sabres won games because their goaltending has been better.  I’m not sure how much that will continue, but it’s nice when you can get it.

As the season goes along, it’s extremely likely that these odd man rushes, both for and against, will decrease.

[Weave]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

I don’t think the Sabres are “running circles around teams” at all.  They have been outplayed and out chances in 3 out of 4 games.  And even that game where they mostly outplayed the opposition, they gave up 40+ shots and were outshot.

The Sabres won games because their goaltending has been better.  I’m not sure how much that will continue, but it’s nice when you can get it.

As the season goes along, it’s extremely likely that these odd man rushes, both for and against, will decrease.

I was using someone else’s phrasing.  Incorrectly apparently.

Im not sure it’s likely that the odd man rushes decrease all that much.  I think they are a product of what DG is doing.  I hope I’m wrong, because it’s not sustainable.

 

[grinreaper]

46 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

I see things that will get exposed soon and it  Aint gonna be pretty. 

I know there's a poster that sees it also but He doesn't want to "be that guy" 

 

Wow. Every forum needs a Debbie Downer but do you have to make up an imaginary friend too? What things do you see that will get exposed soon? I'm not saying there aren't any but if that's what you believe then you should take the time to explain them rather than just do a drive-by. 

[matter2003]

50 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

I see things that will get exposed soon and it  Aint gonna be pretty. 

I know there's a poster that sees it also but He doesn't want to "be that guy" 

 

I guess teams have been waiting 32 games to spring the trap huh...

[grinreaper]

39 minutes ago, Curt said:

I don’t think the Sabres are “running circles around teams” at all.  They have been outplayed and out chances in 3 out of 4 games.  And even that game where they mostly outplayed the opposition, they gave up 40+ shots and were outshot.

The Sabres won games because their goaltending has been better.  I’m not sure how much that will continue, but it’s nice when you can get it.

As the season goes along, it’s extremely likely that these odd man rushes, both for and against, will decrease.

It seems like the Sabres (in general) settled down in each contest this year and found their game. They seemed to find it quicker and quicker in each game. 

[Thorner]

52 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

I see things that will get exposed soon and it  Aint gonna be pretty. 

I know there's a poster that sees it also but He doesn't want to "be that guy" 

 

Ladies and Genteman.....we have a Mole. 

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

I see things that will get exposed soon and it  Aint gonna be pretty. 

I know there's a poster that sees it also but He doesn't want to "be that guy" 

Don't forget our bet. Bottom 4 you win. Anything else, I still win harr harr harr.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Ladies and Genteman.....we have a Mole. 

[kas23]

2 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

I see things that will get exposed soon and it  Aint gonna be pretty. 

I know there's a poster that sees it also but He doesn't want to "be that guy" 

 

Ok, I’ve been drinking enough tonight to bite. What do you see Miss Cleo? Tell us what you seeeeee. 

[Porous Five Hole]

2 hours ago, kas23 said:

Ok, I’ve been drinking enough tonight to bite. What do you see Miss Cleo? Tell us what you seeeeee. 

[Buffalonill]

14 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Don't forget our bet. Bottom 4 you win. Anything else, I still win harr harr harr.

Fine by me

Edited October 22, 2022 by Buffalonill

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

Fine by me

Shoulda taken this lifeline:

On 10/3/2022 at 1:23 PM, PromoTheRobot said:

Against. They are not finishing bottom 5.

Let's make this easy on @Buffalonill.  Bottom 5 he wins.  Playoffs or top 5 non-playoffs* we win. Everything in between is a push. Sound fair?

(To be clear: Top-5 non-playoff means one of the five best records by point% of teams not qualifying for the playoffs.  Bottom 5 means one of the five worst point% in the league.)

Personally I think we finish in the top 21 (in fact I predicted playoffs) but you'd have a fighting chance at 22-32. 

They ain't going to finish bottom 4.

Maybe you can renegotiate to get that "push" territory back and save yourself some scratch.