Lock 'em up early or later? Risk / Reward says sign early

[JoeSchmoe]

I just thought I'd break out the discussion of signing prospects early instead of embedding this in another player signing thread.

Here's the risk / reward.

Scenario A- Wait to sign you're prospects until you're absolutely sure on what you have. This is safer, but the downside is you're going to have to pay so much for top talent that you're going to run into cap trouble before long.

Scenario B- Sign your prospects early before they're fully developed. This way, you're hoping to save in the long run. The downside is if you guess wrong, you risk being stuck with a bad contract on an underperforming player.

I think if a team were to follow Scenario A more often, it would be very difficult to field a team deep enough to be the very best out of 32 teams. I think you can be good, but never great.

If a team followed Scenario B more often, there's more of a variation. A team that locks a lot of young talent early that underperforms can be bad for many years. On the flip side, a team with a good GM that can assemble a large stable of underpaid talent has a real chance to be great.

Almost every cup winning team over the last bunch of years has had their top players on team friendly deals. I really don't think you can win the cup when paying all your players what they're truly worth. On that note, I am happy to see the team locking up all their players that they believe in as soon as they can, as cheap as they can. Especially in Buffalo, which is sometimes a harder sell to veteran players.

 

[Doohicksie]

I think analytics is at play here.  They probably have some metrics that indicate that the investment in Tage, Muel and other emerging players is fairly low risk.  Their projections indicate they're not throwing money away.

I think in the case of the Sabres they should do more of this:

• They have a lot of young talent on the team; if they wait until the talent matures, they won't be able to sign all the players they want to.
• The salary cap will go up, so considered as a percentage of the cap, these contracts will look more attractive (i.e., be a smaller portion of the cap) as time goes on.
• It's good PR for the team to their players and to the league.

[Taro T]

12 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

I just thought I'd break out the discussion of signing prospects early instead of embedding this in another player signing thread.

Here's the risk / reward.

Scenario A- Wait to sign you're prospects until you're absolutely sure on what you have. This is safer, but the downside is you're going to have to pay so much for top talent that you're going to run into cap trouble before long.

Scenario B- Sign your prospects early before they're fully developed. This way, you're hoping to save in the long run. The downside is if you guess wrong, you risk being stuck with a bad contract on an underperforming player.

I think if a team were to follow Scenario A more often, it would be very difficult to field a team deep enough to be the very best out of 32 teams. I think you can be good, but never great.

If a team followed Scenario B more often, there's more of a variation. A team that locks a lot of young talent early that underperforms can be bad for many years. On the flip side, a team with a good GM that can assemble a large stable of underpaid talent has a real chance to be great.

Almost every cup winning team over the last bunch of years has had their top players on team friendly deals. I really don't think you can win the cup when paying all your players what they're truly worth. On that note, I am happy to see the team locking up all their players that they believe in as soon as they can, as cheap as they can. Especially in Buffalo, which is sometimes a harder sell to veteran players.

 

Personally believe that if you trust your hockey department you lock up the kids you determine are key pieces.  

[Zamboni]

Lock ‘em up early if the analytics show it’s prudent 

 

and then go on message boards and watch the joy, the happiness, the temper tantrums, and the anger 😂

[nfreeman]

9 hours ago, Zamboni said:

Lock ‘em up early if the analytics show it’s prudent 

 

and then go on message boards and watch the joy, the happiness, the temper tantrums, and the anger 😂

I am hoping one of your resolutions for the new season is the elimination of all of the “ha ha, some posters are so dumb” posts that seem to be your calling card.  

[Flashsabre]

I have a feeling we here about Cozens today.

[mphs mike]

I think locking up your players early is a combination of analytics AND bringing the players up in your system. Developing players in your own farm system helps understand locker room fit, work ethic, etc.

This team has, in my opinion, been trending in a positive direction since Adams/Granato got their respective positions. Let's hope it continues. 

[matter2003]

I am not sure how people are complaining about a 7 year $30 million contract for Samuelsson which averages out to $4.3 million a year when we payed Risto $5.4 million a year.  IMO, Samuelsson is a better player right now.

[Eleven]

2 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

I have a feeling we here about Cozens today.

I hope you're right.

[matter2003]

2 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

I have a feeling we here about Cozens today.

I got a feeling...that Buffalo is going to the Super Bowl...

[Sabres Fan in NS]

The Lightning did it and things worked out pretty well for them.

I think that if you trust your hockey talent evaluators and developers you will have a good feel for who belongs long term.

Then you sign those players long term on the best deal you can make with the player.  Everyone is going to be happy and the player will be working hard to show that they are worth the current contract and will show that they will want to earn the next and bigger one.

[LabattBlue]

1 hour ago, mphs mike said:

This team has, in my opinion, been trending in a positive direction since Adams/Granato got their respective positions. Let's hope it continues. 

Kind of difficult to go anywhere but up, since they were at rock bottom.  😉