Devon Levi Watch 2022-2023

[dudacek]

Many people are too firmly in the territory of “goalies are voodoo” and are throwing up their hands at ever counting on any goalie to be good.

Many others are still living in the fading archetype of a goalie needing to be a 6’5” mountain of a shot-blocker.

What is actually happening is that we are at the edge of a sea change in how the position is being played, a sea change that is creating the uncertainty we are watching as goalies adapt or die.

NHL offences have solved the Robin Lehners of the world by shifting attacks away from the create-traffic-and-crash-the-crease tactics those monsters were spawned to thwart. Instead they are using speed and lateral movement to create holes and forcing goalies to move and make saves again.

The best goalies of tomorrow won’t be behemoths who square up and give you nowhere to shoot, they will be quick thinkers, able to diagnose where the puck is going, and even better athletes, quick enough to get there.

The best goalie in the NHL right now is a 6’1” 189-pound New York Ranger who meets that description to a “T”.

As does the 6’0” 190-pound Devon Levi.

Watch him play.

Levi is not as successful as he is because “it’s college”. He’s as successful as he is because he’s that good.

 

Edited February 15, 2023 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

21 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The best goalies of tomorrow won’t be behemoths who square up and give you nowhere to shoot, they will be quick thinkers, able to diagnose where the puck is going, and even better athletes, quick enough to get there.

Back to Hasek

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Many people are too firmly in the territory of “goalies are voodoo” and are throwing up their hands at ever counting on any goalie to be good.

Many others are still living in the fading archetype of a goalie needing to be a 6’5” mountain of a shot-blocker.

What is actually happening is that we are at the edge of a sea change in how the position is being played, a sea change that is creating the uncertainty we are watching as goalies adapt or die.

NHL offences have solved the Robin Lehners of the world by shifting attacks away from the create-traffic-and-crash-the-crease tactics those monsters were spawned to thwart. Instead they are using speed and lateral movement to create holes and forcing goalies to move and make saves again.

The best goalies of tomorrow won’t be behemoths who square up and give you nowhere to shoot, they will be quick thinkers, able to diagnose where the puck is going, and even better athletes, quick enough to get there.

The best goalie in the NHL right now is a 6’1” 189-pound New York Ranger who meets that description to a “T”.

As does the 6’0” 190-pound Devon Levi.

Watch him play.

Levi is not as successful as he is because “it’s college”. He’s as successful as he is because he’s that good.

 

I just know how it goes when we have a "can't-miss" prospect. 

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I just know how it goes when we have a "can't-miss" prospect. 

Doesn’t matter how good any prospect is, at any position, it’s never a guarantee until you see it consistently at the nhl level. That’s just on principle. Levi is a great prospect - if he totally flopped out he wouldn’t be the greatest prospect to ever miss. Never mind the idea of a prospect even partially falling short of expectations. Not losing anything by failing to proclaim someone a star before they’ve actually shown it at the level in question. When the time comes it’ll be as apparent to me as anyone else. 

It’s not really about “making it” or “not”, with the top prospects, either: it’s about the vast amount of potential landing space - not to mention the murky timeline of when to even expect success. I suppose that’s why “floor” and “nhl readiness” are talked about amongst prospects as much as other factors.

People like to do the “but I was told Steph Curry couldn’t shoot?!” thing, the truth is, no one here is underselling Levi 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Thorny

[MBD]

So is still believed that if you start a goalie too soon you can ruin him?  That sounds like what they used to say about QBs in the NFL.  Now practically every highly-touted rookie QB starts.  If he's got the goods, he'll succeed no matter when they start him.

[PromoTheRobot]

28 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Doesn’t matter how good any prospect is, at any position, it’s never a guarantee until you see it consistently at the nhl level. That’s just on principle. Levi is a great prospect - if he totally flopped out he wouldn’t be the greatest prospect to ever miss. Never mind the idea of a prospect even partially falling short of expectations. Not losing anything by failing to proclaim someone a star before they’ve actually done it. When the time comes it’ll be as apparent to me as anyone else. 

It’s not really about “making it” or “not”, with the top prospects, either: it’s about the vast amount of potential landing space 

But you can also ruin someone by rushing their development. That's what I worry about. Then again maybe I shouldn't. Fans wanting Levi in the NHL next year aren't the people making that call.

[Thorner]

12 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

But you can also ruin someone by rushing their development. That's what I worry about. Then again maybe I shouldn't. Fans wanting Levi in the NHL next year aren't the people making that call.

Considering the type of character players Adams from all accounts (and existing data) appears to be after, I mean I don’t want to paint w/ a broad brush but in the scenario a coveted prospect doesn’t, in the end, develop in the way we were hoping/expecting I’d much sooner think it due to something physical than mental 

kinda the inverse of the “take away the run game and make a QB beat us with his arm and let it ride based on that” thing I think Adams dials in on character and mindset to a certainty first and if we are picking from players that can’t all be perfectly well rounded (damn, right?) he sooner thinks through strong development they can make up the ground in other areas if they are perhaps lacking 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Thorny

[Thorner]

Heights of the top 10 goalies by sv% this season:

6’5

6’2

6’5

6’4

6’3

6’2

6’4

5’11

6’1

6’3

...for an average of 6’3.

The goalies having the most success in the game as it stands on this particular day still trend larger, but as pointed out above over time it’s becoming less uncommon for the smaller ones to break through - it still helps but the game itself doesn’t prioritize it as much, you just need that ultra talent. Luckily for us our prospect seems to have those traits - he’ll have a good shot at being another Saros (represented in bold, 5’11), and it’s not like 6’1 Georgiev represents a huge difference.

Edited February 15, 2023 by Thorny

[dudacek]

4 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I just know how it goes when we have a "can't-miss" prospect. 

To be clear, Devon Levi is nowhere near a can’t-miss prospect. 
He’s a 7th-rounder that “the industry” is very much divided on whether he will even be an NHL goalie, let alone a good one.
 

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

Doesn’t matter how good any prospect is, at any position, it’s never a guarantee until you see it consistently at the nhl level. That’s just on principle. Levi is a great prospect - if he totally flopped out he wouldn’t be the greatest prospect to ever miss. Never mind the idea of a prospect even partially falling short of expectations. Not losing anything by failing to proclaim someone a star before they’ve actually shown it at the level in question. When the time comes it’ll be as apparent to me as anyone else. 

It’s not really about “making it” or “not”, with the top prospects, either: it’s about the vast amount of potential landing space - not to mention the murky timeline of when to even expect success. I suppose that’s why “floor” and “nhl readiness” are talked about amongst prospects as much as other factors.

And this is absolutely the logical and tried-and-true approach anyone should correctly support on principle.

Sometimes though you take off your analyst’s hat and your risk management hat, you forget about “industry consensus” and “the concept of a goalie” and the “math” of development, and simply ask yourself: does this kid have what it takes to be a good NHL player?

And my answer, with Devon Levi, is unequivocally yes, moreso than any other Sabres prospect outside the first round that I can remember.

 

[PerreaultForever]

On 2/13/2023 at 7:52 PM, Norcal said:

 

They were going on about his performance and this beanpot thing during the Bruins intermission tonight. Their overall view was he was a star in the making. Still has to prove it at the NHL level but they were positive and fairly sure he would. 

Just nice to hear an assessment that is perhaps more objective since they aren't connected to him. Gives it more weight than anything you'd hear on a Buffalo broadcast or from Buffalo fans I think. 

[LGR4GM]

4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Just nice to hear an assessment that is perhaps more objective since they aren't connected to him. Gives it more weight than anything you'd hear on a Buffalo broadcast or from Buffalo fans I think. 

You should listen to Biron more if you think that. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by LGR4GM

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

You should listen to Biron more if you think that. 

I assume you mean Marty calls it like he sees it especially with goaltenders and I agree.  Marty has gone on record numerous times about the deficiencies in UPL's game and they remain.  The biggest improvement in UPL is his compete and unwillingness to give up on a play.  

The thing that makes Levi special is he is fundamentally sound already, his compete level and work ethic are off the charts.  

 

[JohnC]

12 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Back to Hasek

There are going to be superb big goalies whose style of play is predicated on utilizing their size to play the position. And there are going to be smaller and quicker goalies who use their quickness and analytical ability to diagnose plays to play the position. Just as in all sports, football, basketball, hockey, baseball etc. there will be no one physical profile to play a position. You are either good at what you do, or you are not. 

[DarthEbriate]

9 hours ago, Thorny said:

Heights of the top 10 goalies by sv% this season:

6’5

6’2

6’5

6’4

6’3

6’2

6’4

5’11

6’1

6’3

...for an average of 6’3.

The goalies having the most success in the game as it stands on this particular day still trend larger, but as pointed out above over time it’s becoming less uncommon for the smaller ones to break through - it still helps but the game itself doesn’t prioritize it as much, you just need that ultra talent. Luckily for us our prospect seems to have those traits - he’ll have a good shot at being another Saros (represented in bold, 5’11), and it’s not like 6’1 Georgiev represents a huge difference.

Yes, but what are their corresponding waistline sizes? 😇

[Buffalonill]

Hasn't been this much hype  since  price

[LGR4GM]

13 hours ago, dudacek said:

Many people are too firmly in the territory of “goalies are voodoo” and are throwing up their hands at ever counting on any goalie to be good.

Many others are still living in the fading archetype of a goalie needing to be a 6’5” mountain of a shot-blocker.

What is actually happening is that we are at the edge of a sea change in how the position is being played, a sea change that is creating the uncertainty we are watching as goalies adapt or die.

NHL offences have solved the Robin Lehners of the world by shifting attacks away from the create-traffic-and-crash-the-crease tactics those monsters were spawned to thwart. Instead they are using speed and lateral movement to create holes and forcing goalies to move and make saves again.

The best goalies of tomorrow won’t be behemoths who square up and give you nowhere to shoot, they will be quick thinkers, able to diagnose where the puck is going, and even better athletes, quick enough to get there.

The best goalie in the NHL right now is a 6’1” 189-pound New York Ranger who meets that description to a “T”.

As does the 6’0” 190-pound Devon Levi.

Watch him play.

Levi is not as successful as he is because “it’s college”. He’s as successful as he is because he’s that good.

 

One of the things that is being taught and tracked at basically all levels now is pre-shot movement. How do you move the puck before the shot is released? That's why there are far more drops and seem passes that in the past. To beat a big goalie you get them to the top of the crease and then slide a puck far side (or even fake that). The other thing is shooting from a touch further out because you can actually spot corners from those angles. Shooters adjusted and now this big square up to the puck and let it hit you types are having issues. Dustin Wolf in the AHL is another example of the subtle change I think we see in goalies. Sure you can be big still but you have to move laterally and out to the top of the crease like you're Jonas Enroth. 

In the first clip, look how fast Levi goes from covering the post to being at the top of his crease and square to the shooter

 

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

To be clear, Devon Levi is nowhere near a can’t-miss prospect. 
He’s a 7th-rounder that “the industry” is very much divided on whether he will even be an NHL goalie, let alone a good one.
 

And this is absolutely the logical and tried-and-true approach anyone should correctly support on principle.

Sometimes though you take off your analyst’s hat and your risk management hat, you forget about “industry consensus” and “the concept of a goalie” and the “math” of development, and simply ask yourself: does this kid have what it takes to be a good NHL player?

And my answer, with Devon Levi, is unequivocally yes, moreso than any other Sabres prospect outside the first round that I can remember.

 

Well the 7th rounder thing is completely irrelevant at this stage. The industry is notoriously terrible at goalie evaluation so that doesn't phase me much either. 

[dudacek]

38 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Hasn't been this much hype  since  price

This is flat-out wrong.

Outside of a relatively small group of Buffalo fans, there is no hype at all.

[Night Train]

10 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

But you can also ruin someone by rushing their development. That's what I worry about. Then again maybe I shouldn't. Fans wanting Levi in the NHL next year aren't the people making that call.

 Sabres started Tom Barrasso at 18.  Each case is unique to itself. 

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Night Train said:

 Sabres started Tom Barrasso at 18.  Each case is unique to itself. 

That was 1983. The NHL is just vastly different now in terms of talent and player development. 

If I took the NHL 1983 all star team and I transported them to now and let them play the best NCAA team, the NCAA team would destroy them. 

[Night Train]

  Levi was wise not to sign and spend his development in College, playing frequently.  60 games, 1.91 GA  .941 Sv %  21 years old. 

  We'll see. This whole long minor league plan is OK sometimes but becomes beyond cliche if the guy has talent and is needed.  

 

[PromoTheRobot]

20 minutes ago, Night Train said:

  Levi was wise not to sign and spend his development in College, playing frequently.  60 games, 1.91 GA  .941 Sv %  21 years old. 

  We'll see. This whole long minor league plan is OK sometimes but becomes beyond cliche if the guy has talent and is needed.  

 

He doesn't have to spend a long time in the minors, but he needs to take each step fully.

[Eleven]

40 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

If I took the NHL 1983 all star team and I transported them to now and let them play the best NCAA team, the NCAA team would destroy them. 

Umm...no.  

And there have been more recent goalies starting in their teens/very early 20s who have had success, too.  Price being an example.

When Levi is ready, he's ready, no matter his age or what leagues he's played in.

Edited February 15, 2023 by Eleven

[Flashsabre]

52 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That was 1983. The NHL is just vastly different now in terms of talent and player development. 

If I took the NHL 1983 all star team and I transported them to now and let them play the best NCAA team, the NCAA team would destroy them. 

https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl-all-star-game/en/team-rosters/campbell-conference-all-stars-1983-nhl-all-star-game-roster.html

Gretzky, Kurri, Dionne, Messier, Coffey, Broten etc would be shaking in their boots lining up against University of Minnesota😀

Edited February 15, 2023 by Flashsabre

[shrader]

4 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Umm...no.  

And there have been more recent goalies starting in their teens/very early 20s who have had success, too.  Price being an example.

When Levi is ready, he's ready, no matter his age or what leagues he's played in.

Is that really recent though at this point, 16 years ago?  The more recent one I think of is Carter Hart and that actually makes me curious to see if Levi could get some time at the end of the season.  These kids come in and look really good when there's no book on them.  They may falter later, they may not, but that initial rush can be fun to watch.