Very Brief Scouting Report on our first opponent the Ottawa Senators

[bob_sauve28]

I just did a little poking around to see what they were all about

Probable starting line up: 

Brady Tkachuk – Josh Norris – Drake Batherson

Alex DeBrincat – Tim Stützle – Claude Giroux

Alex Formenton – Shane Pinto – Mathieu Joseph

Parker Kelly – Dylan Gambrell – Austin Watson

 

Thomas Chabot – Travis Hamonic

Erik Brannstrom – Artem Zub

Jake Sanderson – Nikita Zaitsev

 

Cam Talbot

Anton Forsberg

 

Their top two lines are going to be super! They will score a lot of goals, it looks like. After that they look like an AHL team. 

Our two top lines should be close to theirs, I'd give Ottawa an advantage but not a huge one. But our third and fourth lines I think are much better than theirs. Our defence looks better on paper than theirs, also. The goal tending will probably be a wash, unless there is a hot goalie. 

 

I like our chances against them in the game and the season 

[Pimlach]

Agree. After their first 2 lines they have nothing much.  

We have a lot of youth and question marks.  

 

I think we can beat them at home in the opener.  

[IKnowPhysics]

Briefer scouting report:

Ottawa sucks.

[DarthEbriate]

With Ottawa, it's all about how long it takes for the team to gel and how long Talbot is out with injury. The top 6 will be excellent. The 3rd line is youthful and should improve as the season goes on. Defense: Zub is underrated and Sanderson should be electric and move into the top 4 by season's end. The difference is goaltending. Once Talbot is healthy, Ottawa has an up-and-coming starter in Forsberg and a proven starter in Talbot. They shed their poor goalie and awful contract with Murray. That's what gives them the edge over Buffalo in 82 games.

But in one game at the beginning of the season where Buffalo has line continuity and the opening night crowd? The Sabres should win.

[mjd1001]

I'm not as sold on that 2nd line as many others are. Ok, I think they will be a good 2nd line but a lot of what I hear is that it could be one of the 'best 2nd lines' in the league.  I think poeple are expecting too much from Giroux. On the games I saw him play last year, he looked done, like really really done. 21 goals and 65 points last year was pretty good production, but he didn't look that good to me. Also, that line is quick but there is no size there at all, they might very well be one of the smallest lines in the league.

I do expect that line to be pretty good though, and Ottawa should be better than last year. They started out awful last year, winning something like only 3 or 4 of their first 20 games.  For most of the rest of they year (the next 62 games) they were more than a point-per-game team.  Just that hole they dug at the beginning of the year was so big.  They did add players in the offseason, and their young prospects like the Sabres, are one year older, so could they be a playoff team this season?  

Edited October 10, 2022 by mjd1001

[Digger]

https://www.nhl.com/news/ottawa-senators-cam-talbot-injury-status/c-336015094

Talbot is out of their lineup for 5-7 weeks.

[SABRES 0311]

20 minutes ago, Digger said:

https://www.nhl.com/news/ottawa-senators-cam-talbot-injury-status/c-336015094

Talbot is out of their lineup for 5-7 weeks.

Anton Forsberg has lost to the Sabres 4-2 and 3-1. He beat the Sabres 3-1 last year.

 https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/game/2-17-2022-ott-@-buf-64170

He has a .303 GAA too.

Goaltending is what it is but it’s better than Anton. Overall on paper I think we are a better team. Opening night at home mixed with a team who plays for each other should outmatch Ottawa. 

[steveoath]

He's not exactly a key piece,  but has formenton actually signed yet?

[DarthEbriate]

13 hours ago, SABRES 0311 said:

Anton Forsberg has lost to the Sabres 4-2 and 3-1. He beat the Sabres 3-1 last year.

 https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/game/2-17-2022-ott-@-buf-64170

He has a .303 GAA too.

Goaltending is what it is but it’s better than Anton. Overall on paper I think we are a better team. Opening night at home mixed with a team who plays for each other should outmatch Ottawa. 

Everything hopeful Sabres fans are saying about Comrie, Sens fans are saying about Forsberg. He's been steadily improving the last few seasons and is ready for a larger role after a good 2021-22.  Last year:

Forsberg: 46 gp, 22-17-4,   .917 sv%, 2.82 GAA, and 14.5 GSAA

Comrie:    19 gp, 16-10-5-1 .920 sv%, 2.58 GAA, and 7.2 GSAA

Where the goaltending skews dramatically pro-Ottawa is in the veteran/backup role. Talbot is a solid 1B-type still in his prime. Anderson is a savvy backup whose numbers have fallen sharply off from his prime years in Ottawa (5 years ago). Compared across the last 3 seasons:

Talbot:      108 gp, 63-30-10,  .914 sv%, 2.69 GAA, and 20.1 GSAA   

Anderson: 69 gp,  30-30-4,   .900 sv%, 3.14 GAA, and -16.0 GSAA

That's a lot of faith to have to put into Luukkonen this season, considering even UPL's current AHL numbers pale in comparison to all 4 of these other goalies.

 

[Doohicksie]

2 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

That's a lot of faith to have to put into Luukkonen this season, considering even UPL's current AHL numbers pale in comparison to all 4 of these other goalies.

Frankly I don't give a damn about his AHL numbers, only his NHL numbers.

[DarthEbriate]

1 minute ago, Doohickie said:

Frankly I don't give a damn about his AHL numbers, only his NHL numbers.

Agreed, and he looked decent during the Sabres' midseason free-fall last year. But the sample size for UPL is way too small to compare yet (13 NHL gp). One bad game and his numbers would go off the rails.

[LGR4GM]

17 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

I just did a little poking around to see what they were all about

Probable starting line up: 

Brady Tkachuk – Josh Norris – Drake Batherson

Alex DeBrincat – Tim Stützle – Claude Giroux

Alex Formenton – Shane Pinto – Mathieu Joseph

Parker Kelly – Dylan Gambrell – Austin Watson

 

Thomas Chabot – Travis Hamonic

Erik Brannstrom – Artem Zub

Jake Sanderson – Nikita Zaitsev

 

Cam Talbot

Anton Forsberg

 

Their top two lines are going to be super! They will score a lot of goals, it looks like. After that they look like an AHL team. 

Our two top lines should be close to theirs, I'd give Ottawa an advantage but not a huge one. But our third and fourth lines I think are much better than theirs. Our defence looks better on paper than theirs, also. The goal tending will probably be a wash, unless there is a hot goalie. 

 

I like our chances against them in the game and the season 

Im not convinced on paper our defense is better. We have more forward depth but this will be an interesting test.

[bob_sauve28]

41 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Frankly I don't give a damn about his AHL numbers, only his NHL numbers.

Gone with the wind...

 

[Doohicksie]

48 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Agreed, and he looked decent during the Sabres' midseason free-fall last year. But the sample size for UPL is way too small to compare yet (13 NHL gp). One bad game and his numbers would go off the rails.

When I say I only care about his NHL numbers, I'm referring to future tense.

[Doohicksie]

https://ottawasun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/ottawa-senators/garrioch-one-on-one-with-senators-coach-d-j-smith-on-the-eve-of-the-season