Trading For the Curious Case of Jason Robertson

[Porous Five Hole]

https://www.tsn.ca/dallas-stars-rfa-jason-robertson-negotiations-1.1858103?tsn-amp
 

No deal close.
So what is the framework for a trade to Dallas for a 23 year old 40 goal scorer coming off his ELC?

Not sure there are many test cases to rely upon. Is it the equivalent of three first round assets? Or more?

Would the Sabres have traded all three first round picks in 2022 to guarantee a 40 goal scorer by age 23? Probably??

The Stars cap situation has to play a role here. They simply cannot fit Robertson’s market-value AAV against their current cap. Does that depress the offer? Probably??

The Stars cap constraints means packaging Mitts and another roster player (Victor Olofsson) impossible without taking money back.

You have to factor in that the Stars have vets and can be considered a win-now team. But how can they realistically be in win-now mode by trading a 40 goal scorer? 

Tough spot. 

If Robertson told you I need 8M AAV and you’re resigned to trading him because you can’t afford it…what’s the package you’re willing to accept from the Stars perspective? The season starts in a week. Would you really let him sit out?

Also important to note that many teams simply cannot afford his AAV without sending money out…and Dallas cannot accept much money in. So that is impactful to any offer on the table. 
 

Thoughts?
 

[Zamboni]

TNT for Robertson?

 

why or why not? 🤔

[Porous Five Hole]

17 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

TNT for Robertson?

 

why or why not? 🤔

Man, I dunno. I think the trade is fair if you could make the dollars work.  But Tage represents paying the homegrown guy and is looked at as cornerstone player. While Robertson may also be a cornerstone, do you risk the “grow your own” mentality here? I don’t think GMKA would be willing to. Plus Tage is slated to play center and JR is a winger. That also means a lot.  

[Contempt]

27 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

TNT for Robertson?

 

why or why not? 🤔

How does it improve the Sabres? That's my first and biggest reason no.

[RochesterExpat]

1 hour ago, Porous Five Hole said:

No deal close.

He just signed. Cheap too.

[Zamboni]

I wouldn’t call 4 years at 7.75 AAV “cheap”. It’s not a stupid contract by any means, but I think it’s more in the “fair for both sides” category. Risky, but fair. Like Tage’s.

[PerreaultForever]

He's still an RFA at the end of it in 2026 so they can shift some of Benn's money over to him at that point if he's earned a bigger payday at that point. Seems like a reasonable and fair plan.

[MattPie]

4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

He's still an RFA at the end of it in 2026 so they can shift some of Benn's money over to him at that point if he's earned a bigger payday at that point. Seems like a reasonable and fair plan.

I think the point here is he feels he's earned a bigger payday already, and the NHL GMs as a whole would probably agree. Someone would offer a fairly large contract to him with term. Robertson could take a team-friendly deal now even with a handshake deal to get paid later, but all it takes is one ugly hit and that money may evaporate.

[inkman]

 

[Flashsabre]

And for fans that say why didn’t we trade for him:

1) Dallas weren’t going to trade him

2) There was no report we were going to. Just a report that we inquired about his status which I’m sure every team in the league did.

[MattPie]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

 

That makes that Tage contract look fairly good, yeah? Centers are usually more costly even with fewer goals.

[DarthEbriate]

I don't like this deal for Robertson. Yes, it kept Dallas under the cap and that's polite of him. But he has outperformed all of Stutzle, Norris, Kyrou, and Thomas the last two seasons. To get paid less than any of them is garbage. 

If Dallas was unwilling to give him $8M, then... get that agent sending out inquiries on offer sheets to force Dallas' hand. An $8.3M offer sheet is still only a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

[Huckleberry]

17 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

I don't like this deal for Robertson. Yes, it kept Dallas under the cap and that's polite of him. But he has outperformed all of Stutzle, Norris, Kyrou, and Thomas the last two seasons. To get paid less than any of them is garbage. 

If Dallas was unwilling to give him $8M, then... get that agent sending out inquiries on offer sheets to force Dallas' hand. An $8.3M offer sheet is still only a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

His agent is gambling that the cap will rise a lot more in 4 years, age 27 and sign long term bigger deal.   I like the deal, in 4 years he'll cash in big.

[MattPie]

Just now, Huckleberry said:

His agent is gambling that the cap will rise a lot more in 4 years, age 27 and sign long term bigger deal.   I like the deal, in 4 years he'll cash in big.

Yeah, it gets him (I assume) to UFA at 27, that's worth a few-100k as long as there isn't an injury, and even if there is they guy is still set for life if he's smart.

[bob_sauve28]

[DarthEbriate]

46 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

His agent is gambling that the cap will rise a lot more in 4 years, age 27 and sign long term bigger deal.   I like the deal, in 4 years he'll cash in big.

If Robertson wants a big payday when the cap rises, then he should still be getting $8.25Mx4 on this short term deal to get to UFA (which this deal doesn't do; he's still RFA for 1 more season at the end). Plus, an agent can be replaced -- there's no guarantee this agent gets to negotiate the next really big deal, the agent is leaving money on the table, too.

If I'm the agent, for below $8M, it's a 2-year bridge. Then, Robertson gets Pavelski's salary added next season and we can talk $10+ with the cap rising in 2 years after my client puts up another ppg season and leaves Seguin and Benn in the dust.

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

If Robertson wants a big payday when the cap rises, then he should still be getting $8.25Mx4 on this short term deal to get to UFA (which this deal doesn't do; he's still RFA for 1 more season at the end). Plus, an agent can be replaced -- there's no guarantee this agent gets to negotiate the next really big deal, the agent is leaving money on the table, too.

If I'm the agent, for below $8M, it's a 2-year bridge. Then, Robertson gets Pavelski's salary added next season and we can talk $10+ with the cap rising in 2 years after my client puts up another ppg season and leaves Seguin and Benn in the dust.

This all presumes that with the next CBA (the current version expires in September '26, & Robertson's deal expires just before that) that the age for UFA status &/or years of service to reach UFA status doesn't come down 1 year.  The players will be pushing for that & if they get it, he becomes a UFA at the effective expiration of the contract.  If they don't, then he signs a 1 year deal & hits UFA the next year, right when he would've otherwise.

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, DarthEbriate said:

I don't like this deal for Robertson. Yes, it kept Dallas under the cap and that's polite of him. But he has outperformed all of Stutzle, Norris, Kyrou, and Thomas the last two seasons. To get paid less than any of them is garbage. 

If Dallas was unwilling to give him $8M, then... get that agent sending out inquiries on offer sheets to force Dallas' hand. An $8.3M offer sheet is still only a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

The Norris Deal is an interesting comparison, and if he has outperformed Noriss it is only by a small margin:

-Over the past 2 years, Norris has 52 goals in 125 games. Robertson has 58 goals in 128 games. Robertson has more assists, but both last year scored more goals than had assists.

-Josh Norris is playing Center.  Like it or not, teams tend to value a guy who is a potential first line center a bit more than a potential first line winger with similar production.

-The dollars per year are almost the same, the Norris deal might actually be cheaper long term as it is longer and will be less of a cap hit in later years in terms of percentage of cap.

-They are both the same age

-The only other difference is 'pedigree'.  Norris was a mid 1st round pick, Robertson was an early 2nd. 

When you compare those 2 guys...their age....their production....the deal Robertson got is probably right where it should be based on Norris.

Edited October 6, 2022 by mjd1001

[LGR4GM]

So Tage took a discount. Neat.

[sabresparaavida]

16 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

The Norris Deal is an interesting comparison, and if he has outperformed Noriss it is only by a small margin:

-Over the past 2 years, Norris has 52 goals in 125 games. Robertson has 58 goals in 128 games. Robertson has more assists, but both last year scored more goals than had assists.

-Josh Norris is playing Center.  Like it or not, teams tend to value a guy who is a potential first line center a bit more than a potential first line winger with similar production.

-The dollars per year are almost the same, the Norris deal might actually be cheaper long term as it is longer and will be less of a cap hit in later years in terms of percentage of cap.

-They are both the same age

-The only other difference is 'pedigree'.  Norris was a mid 1st round pick, Robertson was an early 2nd. 

When you compare those 2 guys...their age....their production....the deal Robertson got is probably right where it should be based on Norris.

I would definitely say it’s more than a small margin: over the last 2 years, Robertson had had 124 points in 125 games with 58 goals, compared to Norris’  90 points in 122 games and 52 goals. Robertson was averaging .25 more points per game than Norris, that’s not particularly close. (Pretty much the difference ppg wise of Tage Thompson and Okposo last year)

[mjd1001]

Just now, sabresparaavida said:

I would definitely say it’s more than a small margin: over the last 2 years, Robertson had had 124 points in 125 games with 58 goals, compared to Norris’  90 points in 122 games and 52 goals. Robertson was averaging .25 more points per game than Norris, that’s not particularly close. (Pretty much the difference ppg wise of Tage Thompson and Okposo last year)

Goals mean 3 times as much to me as assists do.  And I'll give a little more to Norris over Robertson because he plays center.  I'm not saying Robertson is a bad player, hes not, he is a very good goal scorer. However, when I watch Norris I see a guy that looks like he is on the verge of taking over games, he controls the puck in the offensive zone really well.  In the games (and yes, I have seen more than a few) where Robertson plays, I see a finisher, who is best close to the net, that doesn't really do much more than an average winger in the offensive zone when he is away from the puck.  Hes a great scoring winger, but he just doesn't have the skill to controll the puck in the offensive zone that Norris does.

[dudacek]

9 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

He's still an RFA at the end of it in 2026 so they can shift some of Benn's money over to him at that point if he's earned a bigger payday at that point. Seems like a reasonable and fair plan.

I see capfriendly has him listed as an RFA and I don’t understand why.

He will have finished 7 years when this deal expires. 7 years=UFA status, no?

@Taro T?

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I see capfriendly has him listed as an RFA and I don’t understand why.

He will have finished 7 years when this deal expires. 7 years=UFA status, no?

@Taro T?

Only played 3 games his 1st year.  So, year 2 was his 1st year counting towards a year of service.

[DarthEbriate]

22 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Goals mean 3 times as much to me as assists do.  And I'll give a little more to Norris over Robertson because he plays center.  I'm not saying Robertson is a bad player, hes not, he is a very good goal scorer. However, when I watch Norris I see a guy that looks like he is on the verge of taking over games, he controls the puck in the offensive zone really well.  In the games (and yes, I have seen more than a few) where Robertson plays, I see a finisher, who is best close to the net, that doesn't really do much more than an average winger in the offensive zone when he is away from the puck.  Hes a great scoring winger, but he just doesn't have the skill to controll the puck in the offensive zone that Norris does.

Norris and Robertson both left money on the table.

Norris especially. He's locked in for 8 years and now he also gets DeBrincat (and temporarily Giroux) in addition to his regular mates of Tkachuk and Batherson (if say, Batherson gets hurt [Dell] and misses time). If he had a bridge he'd be collecting $9M+ [edit: from 10 down to 9, but that's minimum, Batherson drives a lot of that top line with his speed and playmaking] in a few seasons when the cap is above 90. 

Edited October 7, 2022 by DarthEbriate