Annual expectations thread 2022/23: #78 Jacob Bryson

[dudacek]

In his 3rd pro season, Bryson established himself as a full-time NHLer, ranking 7th on the team in games played and 4th in total ice time, accomplishing the latter despite not playing much short-handed and barely at all on the power play. Only Rasmus Dahlin had more even strength minutes for Buffalo.

His 49% possession numbers were middle of the pack for the team, and most of his counting numbers — defensive and offensive — ranked outside the team’s blue line leaders.

His playing time dropped significantly in April to under 15 minute a game after the arrival of Owen Power.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=187489

Any questions about what the Sabres brass think of Bryson should have been answered in July when he signed a 2-year deal with a 1.85 AAV.

The deal  — notably higher than those signed this summer by higher-scoring peers like Sean Durzi and Timothy Lillegren — put Bryson 142nd among NHL defencemen; a ranking that says he should perform as a solid #5.

He has no upward mobility among LHD on the depth chart behind Dahlin, Power and Samuelson. He may face some pressure from Lawrence Pilut for his current 3LD spot, but has shown the ability to play on his offhand should he be needed at RD.

What do you expect from Jacob Bryson?

[Doohicksie]

Somewhere between the first and second choices for me.  I like him as a player but the D is getting pretty stacked.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I just want him to take a regular shift and not be liability defensively. If he and his partner (Joki?) can give us a steady 12-15 minutes a night, that’s all we really need.  If they add some O great, but it’s not really necessary.

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I just want him to take a regular shift and not be liability defensively. If he and his partner (Joki?) can give us a steady 12-15 minutes a night, that’s all we really need.  If they add some O great, but it’s not really necessary.

I know this is off-topic and you aren’t alone in your views of Jokiharju not being a top 4.

But the idea of Don settling Henri into 15 minutes on the third pair is laughable to me.

In his final 38 completed games, he was under 20 minutes 3 times. His lowest TOI was 18:45. He played less than that just 4 times, all of those in the fall, all more than 16 minutes. He was over 22 minutes 26 times, over 24 9 times.

He’s just not going to be getting 12-15 this year.

[Digger]

He'll play this season but there seems to be some nice depth pushing for spots which is great.  I had the feeling that he was better offensively than his stats indicate.  In 73 games, 1 G, 9A, 10Pts.

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

I know this is off-topic and you aren’t alone in your views of Jokiharju not being a top 4.

But the idea of Don settling Henri into 15 minutes on the third pair is laughable to me.

In his final 38 completed games, he was under 20 minutes 3 times. His lowest TOI was 18:45. He played less than that just 4 times, all of those in the fall, all more than 16 minutes. He was over 22 minutes 26 times, over 24 9 times.

He’s just not going to be getting 12-15 this year.

But that was before Lyubuskin was a Sabre and the alternative on the right side was Fitz or someone worse. 

The math doesn’t work otherwise.  If the 1st pair is Samuelsson and Dahlin (24 min) and the second is Power and Bush (22 min) that doesn’t leave more than 14-15  minutes for the 3rd pair. 

As talent is added to the lineup, marginal players move down the depth chart.  Unless Joki’s play takes a huge leap forward, he is a 3rd pairing guy at this point.

Edited September 24, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

But that was before Lyubuskin was a Sabre and the alternative on the right side was Fitz or someone worse. 

The math doesn’t work otherwise.  If the 1st pair is Samuelsson and Dahlin (24 min) and the second is Power and Bush (22 min) that doesn’t leave more than 14-15  minutes for the 3rd pair. 

As talent is added to the lineup, marginal players move down the depth chart.  Unless Joki’s play takes a huge leap forward, he is a 3rd pairing guy at this point.

Except when Samuelsson and Power were added, Jokiharju kept eating up the minutes.

Joki was the #2 defenceman last year. He averaged 22:17 in April with Power and Mule in the lineup. Lyubushkin averaged 16:28 on the Leafs and 18:07 on Arizona.

As far as math goes, your math doesn't fit what actually happens in a hockey game. Pairs are split up for 4 or 5 minutes of PK time and of PP time each game and get scrambled due to injuries and penalties. What you describe shows no resemblance to what happened in Buffalo last year.

Just because you want the bold to happen does not mean it will.

Edited September 24, 2022 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

21 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Except when Samuelsson and Power were added, Jokiharju kept eating up the minutes.

Joki was the #2 defenceman last year. He averaged 22:17 in April with Power and Mule in the lineup. Lyubushkin averaged 16:28 on the Leafs and 18:07 on Arizona.

As far as math goes, your math doesn't fit what actually happens in a hockey game. Pairs are split up for 4 or 5 minutes of PK time and of PP time each game and get scrambled due to injuries and penalties. What you describe shows no resemblance to what happened in Buffalo last year.

Just because you want the bold to happen does not mean it will.

Again no Bush last year. I believe Joki’s PT was more a reflection of him being the best of a bad lot on the right side.  The other options were Miller, Pysyk and Fitz and as you can see from your chart, DG thought they were lousy options and now they, along with Hagg and Butcher are gone. These options were so bad they moved Bryson to the right side and then moved Dahlin over when Samuelsson got healthy.  Outside Samuelsson and Dahlin, Joki was our 3rd best D last season. This year we’ve added Power and Bush, which IMHO knocks Joki down to 5th.  Frankly, when you look at Joki’s metrics, thats about where he should be in this lineup.   His best chance to earn 20 plus minutes is to beat out Bush to be Power’s partner, but given how bad his analytics are, I’m favoring Bush in that race.

 

Edited September 24, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Again no Bush last year. I believe Joki’s PT was more a reflection of him being the best of a bad lot on the right side.  The other options were Miller, Pysyk and Fitz.  These options were so bad they moved Bryson to the right side and then moved Dahlin over when Samuelsson got healthy.  Outside Samuelsson and Dahlin, Joki was our 3rd best D last season. This year we’ve added Power and Bush, which IMHO knocks Joki down to 5th.  Frankly, when you look at Joki’s metrics, thats about where he should be in this lineup.   His best chance to earn 20 plus minutes is to best out Bush to be Power’s partner.  

 

Miller and/or Pysyk were the 3RD according to the chart above. They each got about 16 minutes of ice time at even strength alone.

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Miller and/or Pysyk were the 3RD according to the chart above. They each got about 16 minutes of ice time at even strength alone.

That’s the point. Bush knocks Joki down to the 3rd pair and thereby Joki getting 3rd pair minutes.

[dudacek]

40 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That’s the point. Bush knocks Joki down to the 3rd pair and thereby Joki getting 3rd pair minutes.

My points are these:

• 3rd pair minutes are likely to be more than 16, not 12-15
• Even if Lyubushkin is Power's primary partner he will certainly get fewer minutes than Power.
• There is no reason to believe Lyubushkin will get more minutes than Jokiharju.

Jokiharju is a two-way defenceman, suited to Granato's style, who averaged nearly 22 minutes a game last year. Lyubushkin is a defence-only defenceman who has never averaged more than 18 minutes a game, even last season where he spent time on top pairings with Reilly and Chychrun.

Ilya is a specialist who will be leaned on heavily in tight-game defensive situations and sparingly otherwise.

I'll be shocked if he gets more ice time than Henri.

Edited September 24, 2022 by dudacek

[Pimlach]

He will be #6, and sometimes #7.  So that is option 1. 

[LGR4GM]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

My points are these:

• 3rd pair minutes are likely to be more than 16, not 12-15
• Even if Lyubushkin is Power's primary partner he will certainly get fewer minutes than Power.
• There is no reason to believe Lyubushkin will get more minutes than Jokiharju.

Jokiharju is a two-way defenceman, suited to Granato's style, who averaged nearly 22 minutes a game last year. Lyubushkin is a defence-only defenceman who has never averaged more than 18 minutes a game, even last season where he spent time on top pairings with Reilly and Chychrun.

Ilya is a specialist who will be leaned on heavily in tight-game defensive situations and sparingly otherwise.

I'll be shocked if he gets more ice time than Henri.

Here's the problem. Joker was getting pp2 ice time last year, he won't get that now because Power will. On the PK, I bet they use Boosh. 

[North Buffalo]

18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Here's the problem. Joker was getting pp2 ice time last year, he won't get that now because Power will. On the PK, I bet they use Boosh. 

Agreed, maybe my anti Euro bias but For some reason I like Bryson better than Joker... not saying he is a better player, just like hime more.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Here's the problem. Joker was getting pp2 ice time last year, he won't get that now because Power will. On the PK, I bet they use Boosh. 

Power is certainly going to take away PP time. And PK time and ES as well.

What’s interesting looking at the 8 games Power played is the big ice time loser was Bryson.

He went from 0.54 PP, 0:49 PK and 18:20 overall to 0:0, 0:16 and 13:14.

Joki’s special teams time actually went up after Power and his overall time was basically the same.

@GASabresIUFAN is basically right about ice time in general though: Dahlin played 24, Mule, Joki and Power all around 22, and Fitz and Bryson 13.

https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?report=timeonice&reportType=game&dateFrom=2022-04-12&dateTo=2022-05-01&gameType=2&playerPlayedFor=franchise.19&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=shTimeOnIce&page=0&pageSize=50

So he’s got a case if Lyubushkin becomes Joki and Joki Fitz in terms of deployment.

I think what’s more likely is Lyubushkin becomes Fitz with more PK time and more ES time protecting late 3rd period leads.

It will also be interesting to see Granato’s tendencies evolve now that he’s got what appears on paper to be a pretty well-balance defence corps, with 2 studs.

 

[French Collection]

19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Power is certainly going to take away PP time. And PK time and ES as well.

What’s interesting looking at the 8 games Power played is the big ice time loser was Bryson.

He went from 0.54 PP, 0:49 PK and 18:20 overall to 0:0, 0:16 and 13:14.

Joki’s special teams time actually went up after Power and his overall time was basically the same.

@GASabresIUFAN is basically right about ice time in general though: Dahlin played 24, Mule, Joki and Power all around 22, and Fitz and Bryson 13.

https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?report=timeonice&reportType=game&dateFrom=2022-04-12&dateTo=2022-05-01&gameType=2&playerPlayedFor=franchise.19&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=shTimeOnIce&page=0&pageSize=50

So he’s got a case if Lyubushkin becomes Joki and Joki Fitz in terms of deployment.

I think what’s more likely is Lyubushkin becomes Fitz with more PK time and more ES time protecting late 3rd period leads.

It will also be interesting to see Granato’s tendencies evolve now that he’s got what appears on paper to be a pretty well-balance defence corps, with 2 studs.

 

Agree with this.

I think Muel, Boosh get PK1 while Joki and Dahlin or Power get PK2.

Dahlin gets PP1 while Power gets PP2.

Bryson gets the least ice time out of the six. 
Ice time will probably be Dahlin, Power, Muel, Joki, Boosh and Bryson.

[dudacek]

13 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Agree with this.

I think Muel, Boosh get PK1 while Joki and Dahlin or Power get PK2.

Dahlin gets PP1 while Power gets PP2.

Bryson gets the least ice time out of the six. 
Ice time will probably be Dahlin, Power, Muel, Joki, Boosh and Bryson.

The one surprising thing I noticed while researching the Boosh thread was that he's not had a history of being a PK stud.

He was the third choice in PK ice time on the Coyotes with a goals against per 60 of 9.8, and the 5th choice on the Leafs with a team worst GA/60 of 12.6

Jokiharju's SH GA/60 was 10.1. Hagg led the Sabres with a 6.3.

(Well, if you don't count Power who was 5.9 and led the Sabres in Avg SH TOI. That kid is going to be a PK stud. Can't imagine a better PK skill set)

Edited September 24, 2022 by dudacek