When is the Time to Trade Girgensens?

[GASabresIUFAN]

I don’t know if this was already discussed in this topic, but Girgensons’ roster spot is in danger beyond this season just from talent coming up from below.

The Sabres have the following forwards on expiring contracts; UFA - Vinnie, Z, KO and Sheahan; RFA’s - Bjork, Asplund and Cozens.  

I think this is Bjork and Vinnie’s last season with the Sabres (or Amerks in Bjork’s case).  Assuming for arguments sake that Cozens, KO, and Asplund are re-signed, that gives us a forward group for 2023-24 of Tuch, VO, KO, Skinner, Cozens, Mitts, TnT, Krebs, Asplund, Quinn and JJP.  That literally leaves one starting forward slot and one 13th forward slot with the following candidates:

NHL - Vinnie, Girgensons, Sheahan

AHL - Rousek, Kulich, Rosen and possibly Cederqvist, Kisakov or Kozak

CHL - Savoie

The funny thing is I think Savoie is the most likely candidate for the starting job, if he has a great year in juniors this coming season.  Because of his age, he must return to the CHL for 2023-24 unless he makes the NHL club.  I suspect he dominates, the Sabres decide he has nothing left to prove in the CHL and he makes the club in 2023-24.  Rousek is my second choice.  I think the rest of the kids will play at least 2 years for the Amerks.  

So where does that leave Girgensons? IMHO KA isn’t going to pay Z 2.5 to be a 13th forward.  Sheahan or someone like him can fill that role for the NHL minimum.  The real issue is that Z is part of KA’s leadership group, but with Tuch and Cozens stepping into leadership roles, KA can afford to move on from Girgensons.

By the trade deadline, KA should know where the Sabres stand playoffs wise and if we are out of playoff contention I can easily see Girgensons’ getting traded for futures.

PS I love roster speculation questions.  

Edited September 27, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

24 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I don’t know if this was already discussed in this topic, but Girgensons’ roster spot is in danger beyond this season just from talent coming up from below.

The Sabres have the following forwards on expiring contracts; UFA - Vinnie, Z, KO and Sheahan; RFA’s - Bjork, Asplund and Cozens.  

I think this is Bjork and Vinnie’s last season with the Sabres (or Amerks in Bjork’s case).  Assuming for arguments sake that Cozens, KO, and Asplund are re-signed, that gives us a forward group for 2023-24 of Tuch, VO, KO, Skinner, Cozens, Mitts, TnT, Krebs, Asplund, Quinn and JJP.  That literally leaves one starting forward slot and one 13th forward slot with the following candidates:

NHL - Vinnie, Girgensons, Sheahan

AHL - Rousek, Kulich, Rosen and possibly Cederqvist, Kisakov or Kozak

CHL - Savoie

The funny thing is I think Savoie is the most likely candidate for the starting job, if he has a great year in juniors this coming season.  Because of his age, he must return to the CHL for 2023-24 unless he makes the NHL club.  I suspect he dominates, the Sabres decide he has nothing left to prove in the CHL and he makes the club in 2023-24.  Rousek is my second choice.  I think the rest of the kids will play at least 2 years for the Amerks.  

So where does that leave Girgensons? IMHO KA isn’t going to pay Z 2.5 to be a 13th forward.  Sheahan or someone like him can fill that role for the NHL minimum.  The real issue is that Z is part of KA’s leadership group, but with Tuch and Cozens stepping into leadership roles, KA can afford to move on from Girgensons.

By the trade deadline, KA should know where the Sabres stand playoffs wise and if we are out of playoff contention I can easily see Girgensons’ getting traded for futures.

 

My first reaction readin this was, no way, Zemgus can be the 13th forward and that might still be the case. That said, I can't fit him into the starting lineup if everyone is healthy next year. Too much talent as you point out in Savoie, Rousek, and Kulich waiting in the wings. Rising tide of talent is great to see but it means harder player choices are coming up as soon as this offseason. 

[dudacek]

Big picture from the GM's chair, that is what this season is mostly about, deciding who stays and who is moved:

• Who among Okposo, Girgensons, Hinostroza, Bryson, Mittelstadt, Olofsson, Bjork, Asplund, Murray, UPL, Comrie, Bryson, Jokiharju, Fitzpatrick, Pilut, Laaksonen and Lyubushkin has a future in Buffalo beyond next year?
• Who among Krebs, Quinn, Peterka, Savoie, Kulich, Rousek, Rosen, Johnson, Portillo, Levi, Östlund and more can push their way up the depth chart and make some of the above expendable?
• How good can Power, Samuelsson, Cozens and Dahlin be, meaning what kind of contract are you offering?

Basically, just Skinner, Tuch and Thompson are the guys they've made decisions on (or had made for them).

Edited September 27, 2022 by dudacek

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I think we could see a decent jump next season because all the Seattle Revenue has basically never been accounted for. 

Yes, there is more revenue due to Seattle joining.  But there are also 23-26 more NHLers sharing the players' share of HRR.  Until national TV / internet deals get reworked to include the expanded league footprint, that won't significantly adjust the cap.  And ...

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Wasn’t the pandemic deal designed to keep it relatively flat next year too?

To give the paycheques a a chance to catch up because they are so far in “debt” due to increased escrow.

without having seen the details of the NHL's revenues post-pandemic, so the players may get done repaying the owners sooner, but in the MOU the league & union were expecting the players to be repaying the owners through '23-'24 and possibly '24-'25.  As long as they're repaying the owners, the cap will only be going up $1MM/ year.  Once that is finished, we'll see a big jump in the cap because the $2-3 MM/yr that we should've been seeing every year hadn't happened.  A $10MM bump for '24-'25 would not be out of the question.  But until then, the cap will be constricting on the top squads.

[Marvin]

I think we are jumping the gun a bit on pencilling in the all of the young guys into the line-up as soon as next year.  There will be players with slower growth curves and injuries to be dealt with.

However, it is also clear that there might be some tough roster decisions as soon as next season.  Zemgus might only be back on a year-to-year basis in a lesser role.

[MattPie]

54 minutes ago, Marvin said:

I think we are jumping the gun a bit on pencilling in the all of the young guys into the line-up as soon as next year.  There will be players with slower growth curves and injuries to be dealt with.

However, it is also clear that there might be some tough roster decisions as soon as next season.  Zemgus might only be back on a year-to-year basis in a lesser role.

Right now it is unusual as there are *so* many high picks that actually do have a shot of making it, but the Sabres are NOT going to hit on 100% of these guys. I'll be a broken record, even if we end up with a surplus of talented forwards, we can trade for D or 2-way upgrades to find the pieces we need. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

Big picture from the GM's chair, that is what this season is mostly about, deciding who stays and who is moved:

• Who among Okposo, Girgensons, Hinostroza, Bryson, Mittelstadt, Olofsson, Bjork, Asplund, Murray, UPL, Comrie, Bryson, Jokiharju, Fitzpatrick, Pilut, Laaksonen and Lyubushkin has a future in Buffalo beyond next year?
• Who among Krebs, Quinn, Peterka, Savoie, Kulich, Rousek, Rosen, Johnson, Portillo, Levi, Östlund and more can push their way up the depth chart and make some of the above expendable?
• How good can Power, Samuelsson, Cozens and Dahlin be, meaning what kind of contract are you offering?

Basically, just Skinner, Tuch and Thompson are the guys they've made decisions on (or had made for them).

You don’t think they also have Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson and Cozens inked into the core.  The only unknown is how much they are getting paid when re-signed.

i think there is a great deal of pressure on Mitts and Krebs to perform this year and next. Both are RFAs after 2023-24 and could easily be bypassed in the lineup by Quinn, JJP, Savoie, Kulich and possibly others.  If I had to project a top 9 for 2024-25, I see Cozens, TnT, Skinner, Tuch, Quinn, JJP, Savoie and Kulich and maybe Kisakov or Rosen or VO if he continues at a high level.  That doesn’t leave much room for Krebs or Mitts, unless they seize the opportunity now.  
 

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

39 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You don’t think they also have Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson and Cozens inked into the core.  The only unknown is how much they are getting paid when re-signed.

i think there is a great deal of pressure on Mitts and Krebs to perform this year and next. Both are RFAs after 2023-24 and could easily be bypassed in the lineup by Quinn, JJP, Savoie, Kulich and possibly others.  If I had to project a top 9 for 2024-25, I see Cozens, TnT, Skinner, Tuch, Quinn, JJP, Savoie and Kulich and maybe Kisakov or Rosen or VO if he continues at a high level.  That doesn’t leave much room for Krebs or Mitts, unless they seize the opportunity now.  
 

 

To the bold, not exactly. I think the question is the contract commitment, not the desire to keep the player.

@Thorny has already spelled out the Dahlin situation very well. He has the opportunity to squeeze the Sabres hard and it will be interesting to see how far he will go and how far Adams is willing to bend. The play of the other three this year matters in determining whether they sign lengthy extensions next summer.

As to the rest, I think we’re seeing the same structural situation, you’re just projecting which guys you think are going to fall behind.

 

[Thorner]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

Big picture from the GM's chair, that is what this season is mostly about, deciding who stays and who is moved:

• Who among Okposo, Girgensons, Hinostroza, Bryson, Mittelstadt, Olofsson, Bjork, Asplund, Murray, UPL, Comrie, Bryson, Jokiharju, Fitzpatrick, Pilut, Laaksonen and Lyubushkin has a future in Buffalo beyond next year?
• Who among Krebs, Quinn, Peterka, Savoie, Kulich, Rousek, Rosen, Johnson, Portillo, Levi, Östlund and more can push their way up the depth chart and make some of the above expendable?
• How good can Power, Samuelsson, Cozens and Dahlin be, meaning what kind of contract are you offering?

Basically, just Skinner, Tuch and Thompson are the guys they've made decisions on (or had made for them).

Without getting into the “what the season is about” thing, I agree on the distinctions you’ve made for the players re: how the organization sorted them. 

Dahlin’s question should have already been answered though unfortunately w/ the result being he’s in the Skinner/Thompson/Tuch grouping. It’s a shame imo our MVP is in a question marks category 

[Thorner]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

To the bold, not exactly. I think the question is the contract commitment, not the desire to keep the player.

@Thorny has already spelled out the Dahlin situation very well. He has the opportunity to squeeze the Sabres hard and it will be interesting to see how far he will go and how far Adams is willing to bend. The play of the other three this year matters in determining whether they sign lengthy extensions next summer.

As to the rest, I think we’re seeing the same structural situation, you’re just projecting which guys you think are going to fall behind.

 

Whoops just got to this 

[MattPie]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You don’t think they also have Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson and Cozens inked into the core.  The only unknown is how much they are getting paid when re-signed.

i think there is a great deal of pressure on Mitts and Krebs to perform this year and next. Both are RFAs after 2023-24 and could easily be bypassed in the lineup by Quinn, JJP, Savoie, Kulich and possibly others.  If I had to project a top 9 for 2024-25, I see Cozens, TnT, Skinner, Tuch, Quinn, JJP, Savoie and Kulich and maybe Kisakov or Rosen or VO if he continues at a high level.  That doesn’t leave much room for Krebs or Mitts, unless they seize the opportunity now.  
 

 

I see 5 guys that are established players, and 5 that probably haven't put together an NHL season between them. Mitts and Krebs might get passed, but it's likely two of those shiny new toys take longer than we all think to become NHL players.