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[SwampD]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'm not saying I DON'T believe it, but I take it with a grain of salt until it's proven. We will know when we see their reactions and comments after losses or after a losing streak. It'll be obvious over time I think. Will there be excuses and "we gave a good effort" type talks or will it be "we have to be better" etc. 

We can probably revisit this mid season. 

Everyone keeps mentioning their 100+ point pace to end the season, but if you go back only six games from that arbitrary 28 game mark (not arbitrary because it was a win), their record was 16-15-3, and a sub 80s pace. Even if you don’t go back all six losses (and probably closer to what we’ll see this year) their pace was closer to the mid 80s.

Like you,I need to see it in October and November, not once their season is over, in order to believe it.

[dudacek]

56 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Everyone keeps mentioning their 100+ point pace to end the season, but if you go back only six games from that arbitrary 28 game mark (not arbitrary because it was a win), their record was 16-15-3, and a sub 80s pace. Even if you don’t go back all six losses (and probably closer to what we’ll see this year) their pace was closer to the mid 80s.

Like you,I need to see it in October and November, not once their season is over, in order to believe it.

This argument is less persuasive when you look at how much the roster has turned over since the first half of last season.

Something like Tuch, Krebs, Mittelstadt, Quinn, Peterka , Samuelsson, Power Lyubushkin, Comrie and Anderson for Bjork, Hayden, Eakin, Caggiula, Ruotsalainen, Pysyk, Hagg, Miller, Butcher, Tokarski and Dell in the lineup that started the season 13/21/7.

But that's history now.

Let's see who they are this year.

Edited October 4, 2022 by dudacek

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

Everyone keeps mentioning their 100+ point pace to end the season, but if you go back only six games from that arbitrary 28 game mark (not arbitrary because it was a win), their record was 16-15-3, and a sub 80s pace. Even if you don’t go back all six losses (and probably closer to what we’ll see this year) their pace was closer to the mid 80s.

Like you,I need to see it in October and November, not once their season is over, in order to believe it.

Not to nitpick, but ...

The 16-15-3 would be an 84-85 point pace over a full season.  Mid-80's, not sub-80's. 😉

Season will still come down to Comrie (or UPL) playing like Ullmark/Biron.  If he can do it, low 90's is really possible if not likely.  If he can do that & 1-2 guys really start to reach their ceiling, playoffs are possible.  If he's Hutton and Anderson & UPL are what we've seen before and there's any significant injuries, mid-80's it is.

[SwampD]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Not to nitpick, but ...

The 16-15-3 would be an 84-85 point pace over a full season.  Mid-80's, not sub-80's. 😉

Season will still come down to Comrie (or UPL) playing like Ullmark/Biron.  If he can do it, low 90's is really possible if not likely.  If he can do that & 1-2 guys really start to reach their ceiling, playoffs are possible.  If he's Hutton and Anderson & UPL are what we've seen before and there's any significant injuries, mid-80's it is.

Dammit! I keep doing that math wrong.

Either way, I really hope we see that hockey when it matters.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

Not to nitpick, but ...

The 16-15-3 would be an 84-85 point pace over a full season.  Mid-80's, not sub-80's. 😉

Season will still come down to Comrie (or UPL) playing like Ullmark/Biron.  If he can do it, low 90's is really possible if not likely.  If he can do that & 1-2 guys really start to reach their ceiling, playoffs are possible.  If he's Hutton and Anderson & UPL are what we've seen before and there's any significant injuries, mid-80's it is.

I don’t want to throw gas on this debate, but when I looked at the team that featured a semi healthy Mitts, a fully healthy VO who could shoot again, Krebs and Tuch, the team went 16-14-3 or an 87 point pace. Even those lineups still often featured 2 or more of Hayden, Bjork and Eakin, as well as Anderson or Tokarski in net and at least 2 JAGs like Pysyk, Miller, Hagg, Butcher and Fitz on defense.   That period included 5/6 of the 6 game losing streak, and featured 21 of 33 games against playoff teams (8-11-2, but 5-4-2 at home). 

All those JAGs are gone or in a much reduced depth role.  

[Marvin]

4 hours ago, SwampD said:

Everyone keeps mentioning their 100+ point pace to end the season, but if you go back only six games from that arbitrary 28 game mark (not arbitrary because it was a win), their record was 16-15-3, and a sub 80s pace. Even if you don’t go back all six losses (and probably closer to what we’ll see this year) their pace was closer to the mid 80s.

Like you,I need to see it in October and November, not once their season is over, in order to believe it.

That's why I like the 12-9-7 breakdown.  It feels like a more accurate representation of where the team actually is.  I would be more confident going into the season if we had 14 regulation wins in those 28 games instead of 12 because that is more legitimately a clear playoff pace.  The blowout losses are also a cause for concern.

To be honest, I don't like the 28 game bracket because I am not at the point where its statistical significance is good enough (rule of thumb in 1986 was 34 records).

The upside is that the overall talent at forward, defence, and goal is significantly better, albeit with less experience.  That trade-off probably hurts the Sabres early in the season but should help later on.

[PerreaultForever]

6 minutes ago, Marvin said:

The upside is that the overall talent at forward, defence, and goal is significantly better, albeit with less experience.  That trade-off probably hurts the Sabres early in the season but should help later on.

Defense should be better but the way Jokiharju has played so far I'm not sure. 

Goaltending is a big question but what concerns me most is center ice. Thompson converted is a solid 1C but after that we don't have a good center iceman on the team that truly measures up to what they will face. For this team to have any real success this year at least 2 of Cozens Mitts Krebs have to step up and seize the position. At this point I just don't know. 

[LGR4GM]

I think the Islanders are one team that will slide on down. 

 

[MattPie]

1 hour ago, Marvin said:

That's why I like the 12-9-7 breakdown.  It feels like a more accurate representation of where the team actually is.  I would be more confident going into the season if we had 14 regulation wins in those 28 games instead of 12 because that is more legitimately a clear playoff pace.  The blowout losses are also a cause for concern.

To be honest, I don't like the 28 game bracket because I am not at the point where its statistical significance is good enough (rule of thumb in 1986 was 34 records).

The upside is that the overall talent at forward, defence, and goal is significantly better, albeit with less experience.  That trade-off probably hurts the Sabres early in the season but should help later on.

Was there a reason that window was chosen, like Olafssssson healing or Tuch? Or is it pure cherry-picking.

[Marvin]

41 minutes ago, MattPie said:

Was there a reason that window was chosen, like Olafssssson healing or Tuch? Or is it pure cherry-picking.

I personally had mentally slated that game as part of the stretch run because it was the first game of March.  It looks like cherry-picking because it comes after a losing streak.

Addendum: we should temper our optimism from the end of the season given that: 1. of the 9 regulation losses, 7 were by 3 goals or more; 2. The Sabres won fewer than 14/28 games in regulation.

Having said that, I think this team can make the playoffs with good goaltending and the maturation of the youth.

Edited October 4, 2022 by Marvin
Clarification

[Thorner]

9 hours ago, SwampD said:

Everyone keeps mentioning their 100+ point pace to end the season, but if you go back only six games from that arbitrary 28 game mark (not arbitrary because it was a win), their record was 16-15-3, and a sub 80s pace. Even if you don’t go back all six losses (and probably closer to what we’ll see this year) their pace was closer to the mid 80s.

Like you,I need to see it in October and November, not once their season is over, in order to believe it.

Good post. 

The more we shrink the sample size to “Ahh, THERE you are, Peter!” a good Sabres output from last season, extrapolating it out over a full season gets more and more dicey 

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Good post. 

The more we shrink the sample size to “Ahh, THERE you are, Peter!” a good Sabres output from last season, extrapolating it out over a full season gets more and more dicey 

But 28 games isn't a really small sample.  It's literally 1/3 of the season.  (82/3 = 27.33)

[Thorner]

28 minutes ago, Taro T said:

But 28 games isn't a really small sample.  It's literally 1/3 of the season.  (82/3 = 27.33)

It’s a tiny sample size. You are extrapolating it x3. Like the situation w/Comrie, we are looking for an output about 3/4 times larger than normal. Even a 1-1 extrapolation is dicey ie “a player has one good year, can he do it again?”

Generally the safe predictions are more along the lines of, this guy has 3 seasons of point a game, can he replicate 33% of that sample size and have a good season next year 

[SwampD]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Good post. 

The more we shrink the sample size to “Ahh, THERE you are, Peter!” a good Sabres output from last season, extrapolating it out over a full season gets more and more dicey 

😂

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I think the Islanders are one team that will slide on down. 

 

Bos, Wash and Pitt could also find their way down in the East.  At some points older teams stop producing. Of the 3 Boston and Wash seem the most likely.

[Taro T]

Haven't seen the THN rankings here, if somebody has posted them, apologies for the re-post.

THN has the Sabres in 6th in the division behind the B's and ahead of Detroit & the Habs.

Have their odds of winning the SC at 55-1.  The Canes are their choice for champs at 9-1 and the Yotes have the longest odds at 120-1.

Power & Quinn both had profiles in their 10 player Rookie Report.

No Sabres in the top 50 players but the immediate past captain was ranked 50th.

[Porous Five Hole]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

Haven't seen the THN rankings here, if somebody has posted them, apologies for the re-post.

THN has the Sabres in 6th in the division behind the B's and ahead of Detroit & the Habs.

Have their odds of winning the SC at 55-1.  The Canes are their choice for champs at 9-1 and the Yotes have the longest odds at 120-1.

Power & Quinn both had profiles in their 10 player Rookie Report.

No Sabres in the top 50 players but the immediate past captain was ranked 50th.

I think everything stated above is fair. I know gambling odds don’t work like this, but if 2022-23 is played 55 times…is anyone asserting that the Sabres win the Cup one in 55 times? Probably not. 
 

I think Buffalo can surprise the division rankings and outpace Ottawa & Boston with decent goaltending, and Quinn/Power will both deliver on the top ten rookie billing. I also have hopes that Tage will be a top 50 NHL’er by season’s end.  
 

I hope I’m right and I surmise that the future is bright 😎

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I think Buffalo can surprise the division rankings and outpace Ottawa & Boston with decent goaltending,

The immediate demise of the Bruins may be somewhat exaggerated. I watched them play the Rangers tonight and their new all Czech line of Zacha Krejci and Pasternak was explosive and dominant. If that holds all year they are a deep team still and could go on one last cup run. maybe Talbot's injury in Ottawa slows them down though, that's possible. 

Rags look like they'll be better too. Their lottery wins look ready to break out. 

[MattPie]

On 10/4/2022 at 7:56 PM, Thorny said:

It’s a tiny sample size. You are extrapolating it x3. Like the situation w/Comrie, we are looking for an output about 3/4 times larger than normal. Even a 1-1 extrapolation is dicey ie “a player has one good year, can he do it again?”

Generally the safe predictions are more along the lines of, this guy has 3 seasons of point a game, can he replicate 33% of that sample size and have a good season next year 

Statistics are weird (and it's been a long time since I took that class). When I worked for a large cereal concern, 30 samples were enough to predict within a small enough margin that the other 1000s of boxes were correct. The NHL is far more variable than that. 🙂

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

The immediate demise of the Bruins may be somewhat exaggerated. I watched them play the Rangers tonight and their new all Czech line of Zacha Krejci and Pasternak was explosive and dominant. If that holds all year they are a deep team still and could go on one last cup run. maybe Talbot's injury in Ottawa slows them down though, that's possible. 

Rags look like they'll be better too. Their lottery wins look ready to break out. 

Oh yea 1a and no shots Lafrienerre looks way more poised for a breakout than Jack Quinn who you said basically "didn't impress"

[mjd1001]

9 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

The immediate demise of the Bruins may be somewhat exaggerated. I watched them play the Rangers tonight and their new all Czech line of Zacha Krejci and Pasternak was explosive and dominant. If that holds all year they are a deep team still and could go on one last cup run. maybe Talbot's injury in Ottawa slows them down though, that's possible. 

Rags look like they'll be better too. Their lottery wins look ready to break out. 

I have been among the many on here that have been predicting the demise of the Bruins for a few years, without it really happening.  I am still pretty sure though that when it does happen it will happen with little warning and it will come quickly. Marchand is an injured 34 year old with a lot of hard miles on him. Foligno is 34 and he looks like he is not even close to the player he was. Bergeron is 37, and while still great 2 ways, at 37 hes close to the end. Krejci is back this year at 36, but the last time he scored 20 goals in the NHL was when he was 32. Pastrnack and McAvoy are the only 2 players on that team under 30 that I would trust to carry a team, but they can't do it alone.

What I expect is the Bruins to start slow, get hot in the middle of the season and have every say "yep, they are back" but have them slow down by the end of the year again.  Boston and Pittsburgh are both due for a pretty hard fall. It may not happen this season, but if it doesn't it is close.

[dudacek]

Boston is underrated IMO; their goaltending, top 4 on the blueline and their 4-line depth is among the best in the division.

Their demise is being almost entirely tied to age and injuries.

[dudacek]

It will be really interesting to see how the seemingly inevitable fall of Pittsburgh, Washington, Tampa, Boston and the Islanders — and rise of the New Jersey, Ottawa, Buffalo, Detroit and Columbus — manifests itself: which teams, how far and when?

[mjd1001]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It will be really interesting to see how the seemingly inevitable fall of Pittsburgh, Washington, Tampa, Boston and the Islanders — and rise of the New Jersey, Ottawa, Buffalo, Detroit and Columbus — manifests itself: which teams, how far and when?

With Boston, is it will they fall or how far will they fall.

Over the past 5 seasons, they have been incredibly consistent.  They have had a 65.2% of points (107 points over a full season) exactly in 3 of the last 5 seasons.  The other 2 seasons they were even better (.714, 116 point pace) and (.691, 112 point pace).  If you average those 5 seasons 'point paces' (due to shortened seasons) out over the last 5 seasons they average nearly a 110 point pace.  If that doesn't put them at the top of the league, it has got to be very close.

As of this morning, the Vegas under/over ponts for them was 96.5  

So the question is, will they drop that much (10 points from last year, nearly 15 from their 5 year average)?  Even if they are getting older, it might seem a stretch to drop even more. 

[Weave]

12 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

With Boston, is it will they fall or how far will they fall.

Over the past 5 seasons, they have been incredibly consistent.  They have had a 65.2% of points (107 points over a full season) exactly in 3 of the last 5 seasons.  The other 2 seasons they were even better (.714, 116 point pace) and (.691, 112 point pace).  If you average those 5 seasons 'point paces' (due to shortened seasons) out over the last 5 seasons they average nearly a 110 point pace.  If that doesn't put them at the top of the league, it has got to be very close.

As of this morning, the Vegas under/over ponts for them was 96.5  

So the question is, will they drop that much (10 points from last year, nearly 15 from their 5 year average)?  Even if they are getting older, it might seem a stretch to drop even more. 

They have some pretty significant injuries to start the season.  A decline in points for Boston seems about given.  The question for me is, when do these key players get back on the ice?

I think they are still a playoff team, but by how much?