Sabres Previews

[SwampD]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And the people on the board SHOULD be more optimistic than the general analysts.  WE are expecting big things from Power and other young guys that the pundits don't expect because they've got 32 teams to watch & a team that was irrelevant that had either Comrie or Lyubushkin as the "big" FA isn't worth investigating that closely.  The analytics guys aren't seeing it because as @GASabresIUFAN and others have brought up, their models don't handle rookies well nor are they particularly adept at modeling young players & guys coming off injuries in general as the models are usually linear but they're players that are on a more complex curve.  And it's a big part of why the models always significantly miss some teams.  They don't make enough money to have huge staffs looking into every team in detail with customized projections for each player.

Still expect low 90's but w/ a pretty large SD so mid-80's if goaltending and other things like injuries bite them hard & really close to NHL 0.600 if goaltending & a skater or 2 exceed expectations which puts playoffs in play.

Nobody outside sees it, because there's too much leaguewide to be looking at.  And the late season run is likely getting chalked up to caring when the other team couldn't get up for the game.  That explains October, not the last 25ish games.  And that's part of the underestimation.

This is pretty myopic thinking.

Every team has the new things they are hopeful for. The problem for the Sabres, and ultimately the fans, is that a lot of those teams are already good. We need our new hopefuls to not only come through for us, but also be much better than other team’s hopefuls in order for us to leap frog them.

But I’ve been told it’s different this time. How long do I have to wait?… two more years?

 

It’s always two more years.

[Indabuff]

3 minutes ago, SwampD said:

 

But I’ve been told it’s different this time. How long do I have to wait?… two more years?

 

It’s always two more years.

 

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, SwampD said:

This is pretty myopic thinking.

Every team has the new things they are hopeful for. The problem for the Sabres, and ultimately the fans, is that a lot of those teams are already good. We need our new hopefuls to not only come through for us, but also be much better than other team’s hopefuls in order for us to leap frog them.

But I’ve been told it’s different this time. How long do I have to wait?… two more years?

 

It’s always two more years.

Disagree.  Every single year there are teams that wildly over or under perform the preseason prognostications.  The Sabres, for the reasons listed previously, very likely will be one of those teams.  That it happens to be a team we like & pay attention to shouldn't be confused w/ myopia.  Should the Sabres end up where the pundits expect - 77ish points, will revisit my assumptions and might agree w/ you on it.  But really expect this team to finish w/ 91-92 points.  Why the disparity in expectations, because I've watched Power play at a 2nd pairing level, watched all the injuries they had last year & saw how much better the team was when it got healthy, saw Quinn & Peterka play in the AHL & each of their 2 game stints on the Sabres, realize Lyubushkin brings something this team only had 1 of last year & that guy having been a rookie that was injured in TC, watched the emergence of Dahlin, watched them play 6 goalies only 1 of which will likely be an NHL regular all year & that in a backup role and the pundits for the most part didn't.  They see a team that lost pretty much its 1st line everything 1 year ago & still haven't replaced any of that with consistent 1st liners.  Could go on, but you get the just of it.

No idea how it will translate in the Adams standings, but a 15 point rise in the overall standings is substantial & almost nobody outside of this fan base expects it.

Edited October 3, 2022 by Taro T

[triumph_communes]

The analytics aren’t going to give a bunch of rookies much weight until they do anything at pro level. I don’t take much stock in those analytics we are a much better team than that. 

[Archie Lee]

I think Adams and Granato are smart and are well aware that the time is coming, sooner than later, where the fan base will not accept player development, good vibes and incremental improvement as the end result of a season. What they, smartly in my view, have no interest in doing is tagging the team with an unneeded proclamation like what Pierre Dorian did with the Senators a year ago when he declared their rebuild to be over. The Adams/Granato plan is to get there organically without making needless public promises that only serve to increase expectations prematurely. I’m certain they know that pressure to succeed is coming and is inevitable. 

[Weave]

41 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I haven't seen their projection.  However a 10+ point year over year improvement would be a very good result for this coming season.

 

Its right there in the twitter link this conversation is discussing.

[dudacek]

16 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Disagree.  Every single year there are teams that wildly over or under perform the preseason prognostications.  The Sabres, for the reasons listed previously, very likely will be one of those teams.  That it happens to be a team we like & pay attention to shouldn't be confused w/ myopia.  Should the Sabres end up where the pundits expect - 77ish points, will revisit my assumptions and might agree w/ you on it.  But really expect this team to finish w/ 91-92 points.  Why the disparity in expectations, because I've watched Power play at a 2nd pairing level, watched all the injuries they had last year & saw how much better the team was when it got healthy, saw Quinn & Peterka play in the AHL & each of their 2 game stints on the Sabres, realize Lyubushkin brings something this team only had 1 of last year & that guy having been a rookie that was injured in TC, watched the emergence of Dahlin, watched them play 6 goalies only 1 of which will likely be an NHL regular all year & that in a backup role and the pundits for the most part didn't.  They see a team that lost pretty much its 1st line everything 1 year ago & still haven't replaced any of that with consistent 1st liners.  Could go on, but you get the just of it.

No idea how it will translate in the Adams standings, but a 15 point rise in the overall standings is substantial & almost nobody outside of this fan base expects it.

@LGR4GM this is what I’m talking about re: “woe is me”.

@Taro T‘s post encapsulates what I’m seeing. And from what I read, it seems to be what you are seeing and what many others around here are seeing as well, regardless of how often we debate the degree or the minutiae of it.

Of course it’s not across the board, of course past results factor into our trust in what we see.

Edited October 3, 2022 by dudacek

[SwampD]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Disagree.  Every single year there are teams that wildly over or under perform the preseason prognostications.  The Sabres, for the reasons listed previously, very likely will be one of those teams.  That it happens to be a team we like & pay attention to shouldn't be confused w/ myopia.  Should the Sabres end up where the pundits expect - 77ish points, will revisit my assumptions and might agree w/ you on it.  But really expect this team to finish w/ 91-92 points.  Why the disparity in expectations, because I've watched Power play at a 2nd pairing level, watched all the injuries they had last year & saw how much better the team was when it got healthy, saw Quinn & Peterka play in the AHL & each of their 2 game stints on the Sabres, realize Lyubushkin brings something this team only had 1 of last year & that guy having been a rookie that was injured in TC, watched the emergence of Dahlin, watched them play 6 goalies only 1 of which will likely be an NHL regular all year & that in a backup role and the pundits for the most part didn't.  They see a team that lost pretty much its 1st line everything 1 year ago & still haven't replaced any of that with consistent 1st liners.  Could go on, but you get the just of it.

No idea how it will translate in the Adams standings, but a 15 point rise in the overall standings is substantial & almost nobody outside of this fan base expects it.

Sorry, this made me giggle. I would hope so.😂

If you extrpolate their post health, end of the year "run", it still only puts them around mid-80s points and out of the playoffs.

I just don't get the optimism. I'm just looking forward to watching better hockey for the entire year. If they somehow top the benchmark set by Disco Dan all those years ago, I guess that'll be a win.

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Sorry, this made me giggle. I would hope so.😂

If you extrpolate their post health, end of the year "run", it still only puts them around mid-80s points and out of the playoffs.

I just don't get the optimism. I'm just looking forward to watching better hockey for the entire year. If they somehow top the benchmark set by Disco Dan all those years ago, I guess that'll be a win.

Doubt this affects your position, but pretty sure  they were on an above-100-point pace over the final 28 games.

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I think @PerreaultForever's concept of culture includes not just the attitude of trying to be better, but also an attitude of expecting to win every game.  I think both are aspects of culture, and compared to the Jack years of cliquey locker rooms, the culture has clearly changed, but while the relationships are better, @PerreaultForever also wants to see that firm belief that they can win every game before he calls the culture change complete.

Yes, YES, 100 percent yes. This is exactly what I mean. 

[PromoTheRobot]

Here are the Cliff Notes for every hockey projection article you will read this year:

Some bad teams made flashy signings. They will improve.

The Sabres didn't have any flashy signings. They will still be bad.

The end.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

Disagree.  Every single year there are teams that wildly over or under perform the preseason prognostications.  The Sabres, for the reasons listed previously, very likely will be one of those teams.  That it happens to be a team we like & pay attention to shouldn't be confused w/ myopia.  Should the Sabres end up where the pundits expect - 77ish points, will revisit my assumptions and might agree w/ you on it.  But really expect this team to finish w/ 91-92 points.  Why the disparity in expectations, because I've watched Power play at a 2nd pairing level, watched all the injuries they had last year & saw how much better the team was when it got healthy, saw Quinn & Peterka play in the AHL & each of their 2 game stints on the Sabres, realize Lyubushkin brings something this team only had 1 of last year & that guy having been a rookie that was injured in TC, watched the emergence of Dahlin, watched them play 6 goalies only 1 of which will likely be an NHL regular all year & that in a backup role and the pundits for the most part didn't.  They see a team that lost pretty much its 1st line everything 1 year ago & still haven't replaced any of that with consistent 1st liners.  Could go on, but you get the just of it.

s

Let me add a couple of points to your fine capsulation of why most prognosticators are shortchanging their previews of this team. The big "what if" for this team is the caliber of goaltending it will get this season. I don't think that it is unreasonable to say that if our goaltending last year would have been at an average to above average level this team would have accumulated 8-10 more points. And if you factor in the number of injuries to a thin roster last year it shouldn't be surprising that it took a toll on this team. What happened when this less than complete roster got healthy over the last third of the season? This team played at a playoff pace. I'm not suggesting that even when mostly healthy that last year's team was a playoff caliber team because it wasn't. But if one can believe that last year's team was an 80-84 point team,then it isn't a great stretch to believe that this year's team will be in the 90 point range, and capable of vying for a lower playoff spot up to the end of the season. 

There is no question that this year's team has more depth on its Buffalo and Rochester rosters. That means when the inevitable injuries occur there is a reservoir a talent to draw from so this team will be better situated to absorb the loss of players and still remain competitive. And if you factor in that the biggest boost this team will get is from internal improvement from the players who were on last year's roster then that is an added reason for optimism. I'm not going to declare that the Sabres are going to make the playoffs this year. Because I just don't know. What I can say is that I will be disappointed if this team isn't in the playoff race up until the end of the season. I'm stoked about the upcoming season. 

[SwampD]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Doubt this affects your position, but pretty sure  they were on an above-100-point pace over the final 28 games.

Yep. Math is hard. Especially while trying to do other things, like actually working for the first time since February.😂

So, do you think they will make the playoffs this coming season? I do,.. I think, just not sure why, though.

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, SwampD said:

Yep. Math is hard. Especially while trying to do other things, like actually working for the first time since February.😂

So, do you think they will make the playoffs this coming season? I do,.. I think, just not sure why, though.

I think they can, which is not the same thing as they will.

Earlier, I said they need .915ish goaltending from their starter (won’t be Anderson), 60ish points from someone driving a second line (Mitts, Cozens or Tuch) and Owen Power to be a legit top 4 defender (approaching Seider or Ekblad’s rookie level).

50 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Yes, YES, 100 percent yes. This is exactly what I mean. 

I’ve heard players (believe it was Thompson and Cozens) say that switch tripped during the second half of last year. The results tend to support that. You seem to not believe it.

How do you decide whether it’s actually there or not?

[Marvin]

2 hours ago, SwampD said:

Sorry, this made me giggle. I would hope so.😂

If you extrpolate their post health, end of the year "run", it still only puts them around mid-80s points and out of the playoffs.

I just don't get the optimism. I'm just looking forward to watching better hockey for the entire year. If they somehow top the benchmark set by Disco Dan all those years ago, I guess that'll be a win.

In the last 28 games, the Sabres:

Won 12 games in regulation;

Won 3 games in overtime;

Won 1 game in a shootout;

Lost 9 games in regulation;

Lost 1 game in overtime;

Lost 2 games in a shootout.

The optimists see the 16-9-3 record for a 102.5 point pace.  The pessimists see 12 wins in regulation in 28 games.  Both versions have some merit.  (Me?  I look at it as 12-9-7 like we used to.)

Fully half the team's wins last season were in these 28 games.  They played a gauntlet of mostly playoff and bubble teams.  In other years, they probably lose 16 games in the 28.

[LTS]

3 hours ago, SwampD said:

Sorry, this made me giggle. I would hope so.😂

If you extrpolate their post health, end of the year "run", it still only puts them around mid-80s points and out of the playoffs.

I just don't get the optimism. I'm just looking forward to watching better hockey for the entire year. If they somehow top the benchmark set by Disco Dan all those years ago, I guess that'll be a win.

 

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

Yep. Math is hard. Especially while trying to do other things, like actually working for the first time since February.😂

So, do you think they will make the playoffs this coming season? I do,.. I think, just not sure why, though.

Perhaps I am misreading things. But it seems you are optimistic?

The optimism for me is that this team is different than other teams. It's not built on free agents. It's built on solid drafting, development, and what appears to be very good coaching. The team looks more composed. They play more as a team. They might lack the talent across the board to take it to the playoff level. I'm okay with that because rather than talking about 26-30 year olds who lack the talent we're talking about 21-24 year olds.  They are the ones who grow, and so I remain optimistic that they will continue to grow.  We've seen it from a few players so far and there's nothing to suggest the next batch of young players won't follow suit.

That's my optimism.

Also.. I am just sick of being negative about the team. 🙂  It's draining constantly looking for reasons they won't succeed and nit-picking every decision. If they lose, they lose. If they absolutely stink I'll find other things to do. If they win.. excellent. If that makes me less of a fan I am okay with that because I'd rather be a happy person than a miserable fan.

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

If you are objectively listening to what they say and watching how they have played this preseason and the last 28 games last season, this team clearly believes they can win any game they play. I dont believe for a second they "hope" to win. They believe they "will" win. They don't seem fragile at all. 

The amount of woe is us projection on this board is why I took weeks away over the summer from the "welllllll idk, they are fragile still" to the "anderson is the starter" is just some type of past reality that you and others seem to want to live in for some reason. 

This team believes they will win every game. Instead of will you can use the word can if that makes you comfortable but it isn't "we hope to win" and honestly at this point I think the fan base is the one in need of a culture change. 

Do you read like, the content of 2 total posters? This is a serious question 

The board is OVERWHELMINGLY positive and hopeful, and that’s coming off a point finish in the 70s. What do you want?

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I haven't seen their projection.  However a 10+ point year over year improvement would be a very good result for this coming season.

 

It would be, if you believe they were their record last season, in totality, and not better represented by their stretch to end the season that a lot point to 

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

How do you decide whether it’s actually there or not?

Like I said, when they have their first losing streak of 6 or so games, will they keep their heads up?  Will they pull out of it with a nice stretch?  Or will it make them doubt themselves and lead to a longer funk?

I tend to think they will be able to correct, mostly because I think Granato will keep them believing in themselves even when things are clicking.  But we'll have to wait and see.

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

"Woe is us" is definitely in the eye of the beholder.

I think, pretty objectively, this board is clearly more bullish about the Sabres chances than observers are around the NHL - to a significant degree.

I agree with you that the culture change has already happened in the room.

While the bold is true, it’s not even just that, though. 

Far more revelatory is the lack of stated expectation to make the playoffs this year. Nary a proclamation can be found on here that playoffs are expected, to avoid what would be a 12 year drought. 

People have bought into the process itself, full stop. If people are expecting any kind of failure, it’s perceived as a necessary and inevitable building block to success.

[SwampD]

22 minutes ago, LTS said:

 

Perhaps I am misreading things. But it seems you are optimistic?

The optimism for me is that this team is different than other teams. It's not built on free agents. It's built on solid drafting, development, and what appears to be very good coaching. The team looks more composed. They play more as a team. They might lack the talent across the board to take it to the playoff level. I'm okay with that because rather than talking about 26-30 year olds who lack the talent we're talking about 21-24 year olds.  They are the ones who grow, and so I remain optimistic that they will continue to grow.  We've seen it from a few players so far and there's nothing to suggest the next batch of young players won't follow suit.

That's my optimism.

Also.. I am just sick of being negative about the team. 🙂  It's draining constantly looking for reasons they won't succeed and nit-picking every decision. If they lose, they lose. If they absolutely stink I'll find other things to do. If they win.. excellent. If that makes me less of a fan I am okay with that because I'd rather be a happy person than a miserable fan.

I am optimistic and for the very reasons you mentioned, especially the bolded.

FTR, I'm in the one third that said yes.

 

[Thorner]

14 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I am optimistic and for the very reasons you mentioned, especially the bolded.

FTR, I'm in the one third that said yes.

 

We are in the same spot. 

I picked them to make it, too. It’s funny, because the board is so optimistic (I see that too) a fair portion of my posts want to look at the raw data, and temper expectations. The outside sources are looking at the data like that, basically cautioning a large scale change from numbers that seem to have established themselves for Buffalo. 

But my argument for them to make the playoffs sort of paradoxically arises from just that: when the “jump” comes, if it does, I think it *will* be unexpected, when the focus is still firmly on the raw data and not the deeper clues, others have well pointed out, that could spell change. 

I think that’s where the some of the debate comes in, for me: many are so thoroughly confident in the process that fantastic things are being projected for the future (comparisons to 2006, what have you) while, at the same time, some of the same posters are content to expect low point totals this year.

I’m sorta the opposite: the process is convincing me we have a GOOD team on the way, but I at this time can say nothing of GREAT. Too murky. But my belief in the likelihood of a GOOD result has me thinking a playoff berth is a somewhat like an inevitable bomb that’s about to go off. 

I think it’s going to happen and the offseason preceding it probably looks a lot like this. 

Edited October 3, 2022 by Thorny

[JustOneParade]

7 hours ago, Weave said:

Hockey Viz projected 86pts. And still had us finishing near where we finished last season.

So if this happens as spelled out, are we (not to you specifically @Weave) happy with this result? 11 point improvement but no move up the East rankings.

FTR, I expect 85 - 90 points but no playoffs. I'll enjoy watching them most nights, be pleased with the improvement, and comfortable knowing they'll be a perennial playoff team with higher aspirations than just that starting the following season.

[dudacek]

46 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I’m sorta the opposite: the process is convincing me we have a GOOD team on the way, but I at this time can say nothing of GREAT. Too murky. But my belief in the likelihood of a GOOD result has me thinking a playoff berth is a somewhat like an inevitable bomb that’s about to go off. 

I think it’s going to happen and the offseason preceding it probably looks a lot like this. 

This. Every word.

Too many things finally being managed properly, too much young talent on the way not to be good, sooner rather than later.

It’s not that hard to improve. Much harder to be great.

[PerreaultForever]

10 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’ve heard players (believe it was Thompson and Cozens) say that switch tripped during the second half of last year. The results tend to support that. You seem to not believe it.

How do you decide whether it’s actually there or not?

I'm not saying I DON'T believe it, but I take it with a grain of salt until it's proven. We will know when we see their reactions and comments after losses or after a losing streak. It'll be obvious over time I think. Will there be excuses and "we gave a good effort" type talks or will it be "we have to be better" etc. 

We can probably revisit this mid season.