Sabres Previews

[Curt]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Possibly, so what's your 4th line? You have Zemgus at center? 

I know everybody's optimistic, and the marketing is good, but I still think the Sabres are content (this year)_ to tank for a shot at Bedard etc. I don't think the line up will be a whole lot different than last year. Just a little with Power and maybe one or both of Quinn and Peterka but not a lot will change. 

I could type a lot, but I feel basically what LGR said, but without the antagonistic tone.

The team to start 2022-23 is not a lot different than the team that ended 2021-22, but the team changed a whole lot over the course of the 2021-22 season.  Most of the worst players are not returning and have been replaced by better talent.

There is plenty of reason to think that the Sabres will win more games than last season, and they certainly aren’t tanking.  To suggest a tank is borderline laughable, to the point that it’s a statement that can’t even be taken seriously.

How many points do you project for the 2022-23 Sabres? 

[dudacek]

@PerreaultForever's point of view is basically the same as the Athletic's: assign value to players who have proven they have it.

They might be "new" going back to last fall, but Lyubushkin, Power, Samuelsson, Quinn, Krebs, Mitts, Tuch and Peterka combined for 28 goals last year and Eric Comrie has won 13 games in his career.

I don't agree with him, but let's not pretend he doesn't have a case.

[Marvin]

What we are seeing is the importance of winning the off-season compared to a team's supposed rivals to avoid negative progostications.  And if the Sabres vastly outperform these predictions, expect loud ret-cons from these guys who will try and make you forget their predictions.  Either that, or they will do the PHWA equivalent of explaining why Josh Allen still sucks.

I expect the goaltending to improve at least a bit with Comrie.  I also see what could be possible improvement in Ukka Pekka-Lukkonnen and Malcolm Subban.

I expect the defence to be a lot better with Power, Samuelsson, and Lyubushkin in place of Hagg et al.

I can't imagine the forwards are nearly a push when Eakin, Caligula, Jankowski, etc. are replaced with Quinn, Peterka, Sheahan, et al.  Maybe early in the year, when we see youthful mistakes, will their readiness be questioned.  But later in the season, it should be no contest.

Now, could this team improve in points yet wind up further down the standings?  Sure -- the Sabres were 2 points clear of 7th in the division.

[LGR4GM]

34 minutes ago, Curt said:

I could type a lot, but I feel basically what LGR said, but without the antagonistic tone.

The team to start 2022-23 is not a lot different than the team that ended 2021-22, but the team changed a whole lot over the course of the 2021-22 season.  Most of the worst players are not returning and have been replaced by better talent.

There is plenty of reason to think that the Sabres will win more games than last season, and they certainly aren’t tanking.  To suggest a tank is borderline laughable, to the point that it’s a statement that can’t even be taken seriously.

How many points do you project for the 2022-23 Sabres? 

Sorry, I'm just sick of using the term Tank to mean any variety of things from actually selling assets so you lose to not pissing away money in ufa. It irks me, a tank is a very specific thing. 

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

@PerreaultForever's point of view is basically the same as the Athletic's: assign value to players who have proven they have it.

They might be "new" going back to last fall, but Lyubushkin, Power, Samuelsson, Quinn, Krebs, Mitts, Tuch and Peterka combined for 28 goals last year and Eric Comrie has won 13 games in his career.

I don't agree with him, but let's not pretend he doesn't have a case.

I guess we'll find out. 

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

THEY ARE NOT TANKING. 

Words have meaning. You don't just call everything tanking because they didn't do what you wanted in the offseason. 

You mean the lineup at the end of the year that was on a 105pt pace... oh no the horror. 

Also you forgot Lybushkin and Comrie. 

I've heard Button and others use the term "soft tank" this year for certain teams. Not outright tanking (like Chicago seems to be) but not really wanting to be better either. Quite happy to take one more year and have that shot at Bedard. That's what I think it is. 

OUR words have NO MEANING for the Sabres and their intentions. Neither of us matter. 

You honestly think last year's line up can compete for the playoffs given the competition out there? By all means explain how we are better than the 8 who made the playoffs last year. 

I did not forget them, I think Lybushkin is just okay, nothing special, and I have very little belief in Comrie being anything at all. As I've said many times, goaltending is the big question and I'd be happy to be wrong, but I don't think I am. 

 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, PerreaultForever said:

I've heard Button and others use the term "soft tank" this year for certain teams. Not outright tanking (like Chicago seems to be) but not really wanting to be better either. Quite happy to take one more year and have that shot at Bedard. That's what I think it is. 

OUR words have NO MEANING for the Sabres and their intentions. Neither of us matter. 

You honestly think last year's line up can compete for the playoffs given the competition out there? By all means explain how we are better than the 8 who made the playoffs last year. 

I did not forget them, I think Lybushkin is just okay, nothing special, and I have very little belief in Comrie being anything at all. As I've said many times, goaltending is the big question and I'd be happy to be wrong, but I don't think I am. 

 

If I'm honest, yes. I think team will compete for a playoff spot. Youth is how we're better. Youth and year 2 of Granato. 

Again, we'll see what happens. 

[PerreaultForever]

40 minutes ago, Curt said:

I could type a lot, but I feel basically what LGR said, but without the antagonistic tone.

The team to start 2022-23 is not a lot different than the team that ended 2021-22, but the team changed a whole lot over the course of the 2021-22 season.  Most of the worst players are not returning and have been replaced by better talent.

There is plenty of reason to think that the Sabres will win more games than last season, and they certainly aren’t tanking.  To suggest a tank is borderline laughable, to the point that it’s a statement that can’t even be taken seriously.

How many points do you project for the 2022-23 Sabres? 

It's a valid opinion. For my response take the one I gave LGR with the reply antagonism removed. 

About 80 points if Comrie is half decent. Less if Comrie sucks. 

Just now, LGR4GM said:

If I'm honest, yes. I think team will compete for a playoff spot. Youth is how we're better. Youth and year 2 of Granato. 

Again, we'll see what happens. 

So, give me your projected final standings for the division and conference (ignore the western side) just our competition. Who is in and who is out end of the year?

[LGR4GM]

I'll post it tomorrow. Want to think on it. 

[PerreaultForever]

24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

@PerreaultForever's point of view is basically the same as the Athletic's: assign value to players who have proven they have it.

They might be "new" going back to last fall, but Lyubushkin, Power, Samuelsson, Quinn, Krebs, Mitts, Tuch and Peterka combined for 28 goals last year and Eric Comrie has won 13 games in his career.

I don't agree with him, but let's not pretend he doesn't have a case.

Part of my argument rests on the competition and not us. I might think we had a shot at the playoffs if Bergeron had retired, Krejci hadn't come back, Malkin left Pittsburgh and so on but for the most part, the playoff teams still look like playoff teams and even if we have improved, so have Ottawa, Detroit and Columbus so games should be tighter and more competitive but in the end I think goaltending and rookie mistakes sink us and we lose enough of the close ones to end up not much better than we were, and if bad luck or injuries hit us we could be even worse. 

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'll post it tomorrow. Want to think on it. 

Create a topic tomorrow and everybody can have their say and then end of year we can see who the biggest fools were. If you want. Might be fun. 

[LGR4GM]

Will do

[dudacek]

Haven’t looked at the Atlantic, but I think the top 4 in the Northeast slip while the bottom 4 improve.

Buffalo and Ottawa could get 85-90, Detroit maybe 5 points behind them and the Habs about 60ish?

Leafs and Lightning 100-110, Boston and Florida 95-105. I think it is possible one of the teams could implode in the same manner Vegas did last year and will make it a rest. I can’t tell you which one, but Florida’s defence corps is awful, the pressure on Toronto is immense and the Bruins are aging and without their best players early. Tampa has lost their depth and without Vas would be vulnerable.

[PromoTheRobot]

On 9/20/2022 at 3:42 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Well here is the first Preview of the upcoming season.  Sorry it's from the Athletic and it predicts we'll be the 4th worst team in the NHL.  Don't worry the pitchforks are already out. Dom Luszczyzsyn believes that Sabres will finish with 76 pts next season and actually be worse than the Flyers, Sens and Red Wings among 28 others.  Only Chicago, Mon and AZ project lower.  He doesn't even list JJP as a possible Sabres next season.  He is even using player data which includes data points from the RK era to make his projections.  

Obviously is much easier to predict the performance using analytic tools with veteran players coached by veteran coaches, and he is correct in that the Sabres have so many young players that you don't know how they will grow and develop.  Still one needs a little common sense when the data doesn't match the eye test.  This team turned the corner last year.  If this team fails to score 250+ and move into the mid 80's pt wise, I'll be very disappointed and so will management and the players.

This is his one saving grace:

HIs best case scenario IMHO has about a 75% chance of occurring.  His worst case 5%.

 

https://theathletic.com/3606971/2022/09/20/buffalo-sabres-2022-23-season-preview/

Anyway, If you find other previews please post them here so that we can bash them as well.

Dom Luszczyzsyn also predicted the Sabres would be dead last last year...the Canadiens would be 19th...the Kraken would be 10th...and the Golden Knights would be the 4th best team in the NHL. How'd those work out?

https://theathletic.com/2843332/2021/10/08/dom-luszczyszyns-2021-22-nhl-team-previews/

Edited September 21, 2022 by PromoTheRobot

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Actually I needed to add something.

So you claim they are tanking and that is 100% false based on literal facts. 

But let's examine the next part. You express the opinion that the lineup is the same as last year (just a little different). Let us take a peak shall we? Eakin, 69 games and gone. Pysyk, 68 games and gone. Hayden 55 games and gone. Hagg 48 games and gone. Miller 38 games and gone. Butcher, 37 games and gone. Jankowski, 19 games and gone. Caggiula, 18 games and gone. Ruotsalainen, 18 games and gone. So that is 9 players that played a majority or at least a chunk of games for Buffalo who aren't on the roster.

Just a little different: with Power replacing Pysyk... I mean yea sure if you think the 1st overall pick from 2021 is about the same as... checks notes... Mark Pysyk. What about Cody Eakin, let's give his games to Jack Quinn... I will be shocked if there is any difference there with Quinn probably only getting... checks notes again... 12 points. How about Hayden replaced by JJP, no way JJP can get much better than haydens 4 pts, I mean who realistically thinks he will get much more than that? Hagg, idk how Lybushkin can replace Hagg and his 8 whopping points and poor defensive metrics. 

We didn't even talk about Tuch or Krebs playing only parts of last year in Buffalo. They basically replace Caggilula and Ruotsalianen. 

So if you are saying that Eakin, Pysyk, Hagg, Hayden, Caggiula, and Ruostsalianen are the same or only slightly lesser than Power, Quinn, Tuch, Krebs, Peterka, Lybushkin, then yes the lineup is only a little different than what we did for a chunk of last year. Just a tiny amount, in fact I would argue it is almost exactly the same lineup. I mean no way Owen Power is going to be better than Pysyk or Hagg, they are basically the same. Eakin and Tuch, most teams view them as equals. Quinn and Caggiula, probably need a sweetner if you wanted to make that trade but they are almost identical. Because as you say " I don't think the line up will be a whole lot different than last year. Just a little" I get the impression your definition of a little is very different than mine. I didn't even get to the difference between Comrie and Tokarski or Dell. 

A lot did change. That's the intriguing part. 

 

Nothing changed on the Sabres from last year, except for everything that did.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

I've heard Button and others use the term "soft tank" this year for certain teams. Not outright tanking (like Chicago seems to be) but not really wanting to be better either. Quite happy to take one more year and have that shot at Bedard. That's what I think it is. 

OUR words have NO MEANING for the Sabres and their intentions. Neither of us matter. 

You honestly think last year's line up can compete for the playoffs given the competition out there? By all means explain how we are better than the 8 who made the playoffs last year. 

I did not forget them, I think Lybushkin is just okay, nothing special, and I have very little belief in Comrie being anything at all. As I've said many times, goaltending is the big question and I'd be happy to be wrong, but I don't think I am. 

 

Really don't see the Sabres tanking.  Neither hard tank (obviously) nor the soft tank.  The ONLY way they're running a soft tank is if they EXPECT Comrie to be Hutton.  And just can't see them having gone after him as they did if they expect him to only be Hutton.  A much stronger case for a solft/stealth tank could've been made if Murray was the only NHL goalie brought in this year.  But, really expect they were going to go after Comrie even with Murray figuring Comrie can get them 45-55 quality starts & some combo of the other 4 guys could get them another 30ish quality starts.

[dudacek]

The whole idea of a “soft tank” is predicated on the idea that the Sabres don’t actually believe that playing Cozens/Krebs/Mitts/Power/Quinn etc in prominent roles is the best way to develop both them and the team.

Which makes Adams and Granato and Appert and every other acolyte in the front office a really good liar.

Im going to go with Occam’s Razor on this one.

Edited September 22, 2022 by dudacek

[PerreaultForever]

17 hours ago, dudacek said:

The whole idea of a “soft tank” is predicated on the idea that the Sabres don’t actually believe that playing Cozens/Krebs/Mitts/Power/Quinn etc in prominent roles is the best way to develop both them and the team.

Which makes Adams and Granato and Appert and every other acolyte in the front office a really good liar.

Im going to go with Occam’s Razor on this one.

I do think they are very good liars BUT to the first sentence, that's not necessarily the conclusion. The plan could be it's a soft tank because they know full well that developing young players takes time so they are prepared to TAKE TIME and let them grow together making mistakes and learning but knowing full well that playing so many young players will also lead to many losses. 

Occam's Razor for me is this, which I've said before and still believe. WE as FANS want to win now and have hope and belief in our youth while THEY know this will take years to come together and the great surge forward is still 2-3 years away. 

They are actually working towards playoffs 2024/25 (which is where the lying comes in). 

[LGR4GM]

27 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I do think they are very good liars BUT to the first sentence, that's not necessarily the conclusion. The plan could be it's a soft tank because they know full well that developing young players takes time so they are prepared to TAKE TIME and let them grow together making mistakes and learning but knowing full well that playing so many young players will also lead to many losses. 

Occam's Razor for me is this, which I've said before and still believe. WE as FANS want to win now and have hope and belief in our youth while THEY know this will take years to come together and the great surge forward is still 2-3 years away. 

They are actually working towards playoffs 2024/25 (which is where the lying comes in). 

This implies that any team that doesn't sell out the future to ice the best team they possibly can is soft tanking. Again it is a bad definition and way to discuss a very real idea. 

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I do think they are very good liars BUT to the first sentence, that's not necessarily the conclusion. The plan could be it's a soft tank because they know full well that developing young players takes time so they are prepared to TAKE TIME and let them grow together making mistakes and learning but knowing full well that playing so many young players will also lead to many losses. 

Occam's Razor for me is this, which I've said before and still believe. WE as FANS want to win now and have hope and belief in our youth while THEY know this will take years to come together and the great surge forward is still 2-3 years away. 

They are actually working towards playoffs 2024/25 (which is where the lying comes in). 

I don’t think for Adams it’s about making the playoffs this year versus 24/25; they are looking to build a team that once it  makes the playoffs will stay there for a decade. There’s been no lying involved.

Separately, I think Adams has more faith in his staff, his players and their development than you do.

You’ve posted a lot on here about culture but you don’t seem to have lot of patience for the time and effort it takes to establish it.

[PerreaultForever]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

This implies that any team that doesn't sell out the future to ice the best team they possibly can is soft tanking. Again it is a bad definition and way to discuss a very real idea. 

I can accept you don't like the definition but I have tried to clarify what I mean by it (even if that doesn't match your definition of it). I think I'm using it the way Button did, but it doesn't really matter. The point is really what I said to dudacek, management's timeline is longer and slower than we as fans want or think. That's my belief anyway. 

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I don’t think for Adams it’s about making the playoffs this year versus 24/25; they are looking to build a team that once it  makes the playoffs will stay there for a decade. There’s been no lying involved.

Separately, I think Adams has more faith in his staff, his players and their development than you do.

You’ve posted a lot on here about culture but you don’t seem to have lot of patience for the time and effort it takes to establish it.

I think it took almost 50 games last year to establish it. 

Again, a lot of people view the Sabres as the team that had the record they did last year and not as the team that played the final 28 games. 

12 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I can accept you don't like the definition but I have tried to clarify what I mean by it (even if that doesn't match your definition of it). I think I'm using it the way Button did, but it doesn't really matter. The point is really what I said to dudacek, management's timeline is longer and slower than we as fans want or think. That's my belief anyway. 

Tanking is deliberately selling off assets to ensure you finish as low in the standings as possible. Soft tanking would imply selling some assets but not going all in. What assets did Buffalo sell or what action did they take to ensure they finish last or bottom 5 in the rankings?

[PerreaultForever]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I don’t think for Adams it’s about making the playoffs this year versus 24/25; they are looking to build a team that once it  makes the playoffs will stay there for a decade. There’s been no lying involved.

Separately, I think Adams has more faith in his staff, his players and their development than you do.

You’ve posted a lot on here about culture but you don’t seem to have lot of patience for the time and effort it takes to establish it.

Well the lying is soft lying (lol). It's just you as a GM never come out and say we don't expect to make the playoffs this year but let's not get hung up on that. 

I'm a little impatient after all the years of losing, this is true. I think they could speed it up a little BUT I do see the potential for this team to finally be good, I just don't think it's this year and I don't have the faith in the goaltending that some do. I think it will be a frustrating year. 

But I also do think we will make the playoffs in 24/25 with this plan and then we will be in every year like the Tampas and Torontos and Bostons of this past decade. The culture is changing, but slowly. 

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well the lying is soft lying (lol). It's just you as a GM never come out and say we don't expect to make the playoffs this year but let's not get hung up on that. 

I'm a little impatient after all the years of losing, this is true. I think they could speed it up a little BUT I do see the potential for this team to finally be good, I just don't think it's this year and I don't have the faith in the goaltending that some do. I think it will be a frustrating year. 

But I also do think we will make the playoffs in 24/25 with this plan and then we will be in every year like the Tampas and Torontos and Bostons of this past decade. The culture is changing, but slowly. 

10000000000000000% disagree that the culture is changing slowly. It changed. This is a different team culture than what we went into last year with.

[PerreaultForever]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think it took almost 50 games last year to establish it. 

Again, a lot of people view the Sabres as the team that had the record they did last year and not as the team that played the final 28 games. 

Tanking is deliberately selling off assets to ensure you finish as low in the standings as possible. Soft tanking would imply selling some assets but not going all in. What assets did Buffalo sell or what action did they take to ensure they finish last or bottom 5 in the rankings?

I'd say selling off assets is a hard tank or tanking. Not getting assets you need is soft tanking. It's the goaltending for me most of all. I will be happy to be wrong, but I think we have the worst goaltending in the league and to me that's a soft tank. The season will prove one of us wrong on that point. I hope it's me. 

Just now, LGR4GM said:

10000000000000000% disagree that the culture is changing slowly. It changed. This is a different team culture than what we went into last year with.

It is different, yes, but I still think it's at a fragile point and not cemented into the fabric or the dna. They still need to learn to win and not accept losing as okay. 

[dudacek]

23 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Tanking is deliberately selling off assets to ensure you finish as low in the standings as possible. Soft tanking would imply selling some assets but not going all in. What assets did Buffalo sell or what action did they take to ensure they finish last or bottom 5 in the rankings?

This is true. But what he is calling “soft tanking” is different, It’s about not using all the assets (cap space, picks, prospects) at your disposal to make the team as good as you can right now.

I think Adams believes it will accelerate development of the prospects and build culture. I think @PerreaultForever thinks Adams believes it will keep the team low in the standings where they can accumulate more and better assets.

Edited September 22, 2022 by dudacek

[PerreaultForever]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

This is true. But what he is calling “soft tanking” is different, It’s about not using all the assets (cap space, picks, prospects) at your disposal to make the team is good as you can right now.

I think Adams believes it will accelerate development of the prospects and build culture. I think @PerreaultForever Thinks Adams believes it will keep the team low in the standings where the can accumulate more and better assets.

I think it can be both. A recognition that you probably won't make the playoffs now (due to the competition) so there is no need in his mind to use the cap space and fill all the holes, you might as well develop the prospects and get the bonus of a few more.