Sabres Previews

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://www.nhl.com/news/buffalo-sabres-2022-23-season-preview/c-335501386

https://thehockeywriters.com/sabres-3-bold-predictions-2022-23-season/

[French Collection]

9 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://www.nhl.com/news/buffalo-sabres-2022-23-season-preview/c-335501386

https://thehockeywriters.com/sabres-3-bold-predictions-2022-23-season/

THW article not only predicts the Sabres make the playoffs, it says they will get by the first round.

If this happened vs the Leafs I would be over the moon.

[JoeSchmoe]

4 hours ago, French Collection said:

THW article not only predicts the Sabres make the playoffs, it says they will get by the first round.

If this happened vs the Leafs I would be over the moon.

If only this guy were a true national level coverage guy. I'd put him up on a pedestal as a guy that actually does his homework.

[SwampD]

How nice is it that in all these analyses, we don’t have to here about Jack&Coke anymore. It’s kinda nice.

[Weave]

3 hours ago, SwampD said:

How nice is it that in all these analyses, we don’t have to here about Jack&Coke anymore. It’s kinda nice.

Jack and Ginger.  You’re forgetting Eakin.

[SwampD]

48 minutes ago, Weave said:

Jack and Ginger.  You’re forgetting Eakin.

I liked Eakin.

I’ve heard that Eichel’s nickname around the league is Jack&Coke.

[Thorner]

Finkle is Einhorn 

[Brawndo]

 

[Brawndo]

Micah’s Model has the Leafs and Vegas both missing the playoffs 

[dudacek]

There are enough of these out there by now - analytics and otherwise - to show that we are perceived as very much a lottery team.

Basically, we are generally considered better than the Coyotes, Hawks and Canadiens, and are right there at the bottom of the next tier with the Flyers, Sharks and Kraken. More or less, take last year’s standings and add ‘didn’t do much to get better, while Detroit, Ottawa and New Jersey did.”

“When it feels like you are surrounded by idiots, it probably means the idiot is you”

I say ***** ‘em. Go Sabres

Edited October 3, 2022 by dudacek

[Weave]

28 minutes ago, dudacek said:

There are enough of these out there by now - analytics and otherwise - to show that we are perceived as very much a lottery team.

Basically, we are generally considered better than the Coyotes, Hawks and Canadiens, and are right there at the bottom of the next tier with the Flyers, Sharks and Kraken. More or less, take last year’s standings and add ‘didn’t do much to get better, while Detroit, Ottawa and New Jersey did.”

“When it feels like you are surrounded by idiots, it probably means the idiot is you”

I say ***** ‘em. Go Sabres

Yeah, the unbiased evaluations are pretty consistent that our team has enough unknowns that historically have been expected to perform at replacement level.

Hopefully a few of our unknowns show better than historical expectations and we surprise a few people.

I’m not betting on it however.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Analytics are great.  They do a great job of explaining what happened in the past, but they are terrible at accounting for player development.  There is a well known adage that past performance is not indicative of future results.  No model could have predicted Tage's improvement last year nor did they predict Skinner's rebound.  They all assume if you were "X" last season you'll likely be within one standard deviation of "X" this season.

All these model say will be exactly the same as last year points wise.  I honestly can't see that happening unless the goaltending completely falls apart, which admittedly is possible.  

As I've said before, jettisoning the JAGS throughout the lineup with young high end talent plus full season of the traded for players will elevate this team by at least 30 goals over the course of the season.  Moving from a team that score 230 to one that scorer 260+.  Teams that score 260+ are at a minimum 82+ pts teams.   

[Weave]

14 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Analytics are great.  They do a great job of explaining what happened in the past, but they are terrible at accounting for player development.  There is a well known adage that past performance is not indicative of future results.  No model could have predicted Tage's improvement last year nor did they predict Skinner's rebound.  They all assume if you were "X" last season you'll likely be within one standard deviation of "X" this season.

All these model say will be exactly the same as last year points wise.  I honestly can't see that happening unless the goaltending completely falls apart, which admittedly is possible.  

As I've said before, jettisoning the JAGS throughout the lineup with young high end talent plus full season of the traded for players will elevate this team by at least 30 goals over the course of the season.  Moving from a team that score 230 to one that scorer 260+.  Teams that score 260+ are at a minimum 82+ pts teams.   

Hockey Viz projected 86pts. And still had us finishing near where we finished last season.

[Doohicksie]

On 9/22/2022 at 1:26 PM, LGR4GM said:

Again, a lot of people view the Sabres as the team that had the record they did last year and not as the team that played the final 28 games. 

So which are they?  They want to be the team of the last 28 games no doubt, but we'll see how they come out of the gate.  Will they stumble or will they come out the way they ended the season?

I think most observers not tied to the team believe they will stumble.  The long suffering fan base is hoping for a continuation of the late season surge.  That's really the question for this season and we'll all be watching closely for an answer.

[Doohicksie]

On 9/22/2022 at 1:33 PM, LGR4GM said:

On 9/22/2022 at 1:30 PM, PerreaultForever said:

The culture is changing, but slowly. 

10000000000000000% disagree that the culture is changing slowly. It changed. This is a different team culture than what we went into last year with.

I think @PerreaultForever's concept of culture includes not just the attitude of trying to be better, but also an attitude of expecting to win every game.  I think both are aspects of culture, and compared to the Jack years of cliquey locker rooms, the culture has clearly changed, but while the relationships are better, @PerreaultForever also wants to see that firm belief that they can win every game before he calls the culture change complete.

I think they "hope" to win every game, but don't "expect" to win every game at this point, or if they expect to win, that expectation is still pretty fragile.

So in a way I agree with both of you:  The culture has clearly changed, but it's still a work in progress, subject to setbacks, and far from complete.

[Marvin]

9 minutes ago, Weave said:

Hockey Viz projected 86pts. And still had us finishing near where we finished last season.

That's the thing.  We were 2 points up on 7th.  86 points looks right, but it could be 7th.

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I think @PerreaultForever's concept of culture includes not just the attitude of trying to be better, but also an attitude of expecting to win every game.  I think both are aspects of culture, and compared to the Jack years of cliquey locker rooms, the culture has clearly changed, but while the relationships are better, @PerreaultForever also wants to see that firm belief that they can win every game before he calls the culture change complete.

I think they "hope" to win every game, but don't "expect" to win every game at this point, or if they expect to win, that expectation is still pretty fragile.

So in a way I agree with both of you:  The culture has clearly changed, but it's still a work in progress, subject to setbacks, and far from complete.

If you are objectively listening to what they say and watching how they have played this preseason and the last 28 games last season, this team clearly believes they can win any game they play. I dont believe for a second they "hope" to win. They believe they "will" win. They don't seem fragile at all. 

The amount of woe is us projection on this board is why I took weeks away over the summer from the "welllllll idk, they are fragile still" to the "anderson is the starter" is just some type of past reality that you and others seem to want to live in for some reason. 

This team believes they will win every game. Instead of will you can use the word can if that makes you comfortable but it isn't "we hope to win" and honestly at this point I think the fan base is the one in need of a culture change. 

[Doohicksie]

On 9/23/2022 at 9:05 AM, LGR4GM said:

If Comrie was a one hit wonder with his GSAA numbers than Adams will have failed. That is part of what Perrault is pushing at and he could be right there. 

Not really.  He needs at least one of Anderson, Comrie and UPL to hit, preferably two.  I think UPL is very close to being a good NHL goalie, even a starter or at least a 1B.  If Comrie can carry the water and Anderson doesn't suffer any early injuries, I could see Comrie as 1A, Anderson as backup, and eventually UPL filling a 1B role, looking something like Boston's Ullmark/Swayman tandem.  If Andy stays healthy the Sabres may trade him at the deadline (if he's agreeable) for draft assets to a team that needs help in goal going into the playoffs.

[LGR4GM]

24 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

So which are they?  They want to be the team of the last 28 games no doubt, but we'll see how they come out of the gate.  Will they stumble or will they come out the way they ended the season?

I think most observers not tied to the team believe they will stumble.  The long suffering fan base is hoping for a continuation of the late season surge.  That's really the question for this season and we'll all be watching closely for an answer.

Proving my point about a fragile fanbase fully expecting this team to fail. 

[Doohicksie]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

They don't seem fragile at all. 

Maybe you're right.  Let's see how they are after a 6 game winless streak.

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Not really.  He needs at least one of Anderson, Comrie and UPL to hit, preferably two.  I think UPL is very close to being a good NHL goalie, even a starter or at least a 1B.  If Comrie can carry the water and Anderson doesn't suffer any early injuries, I could see Comrie as 1A, Anderson as backup, and eventually UPL filling a 1B role, looking something like Boston's Ullmark/Swayman tandem.  If Andy stays healthy the Sabres may trade him at the deadline (if he's agreeable) for draft assets to a team that needs help in goal going into the playoffs.

Lol stop. Anderson isn't going to hit. He is a 41yr old playing his last season in order to be a veteran leader on a young team. 

11 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Maybe you're right.  Let's see how they are after a 6 game winless streak.

Why do they have to have a 6 game winless streak?

[Doohicksie]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Lol stop. Anderson isn't going to hit. He is a 41yr old playing his last season in order to be a veteran leader on a young team. 

Not expecting Anderson to be the one that "hits" but he's in the group so I included him.  If he can provide 16 quality starts (3 goals or fewer) in 20 games, that would be great.  Where I'm hopeful is that Comrie will hit in that he is ready to take the next step and can handle a starer's work load, and that UPL will hit in that he can be this year's "Comrie" as an emerging goalie in a backup role.

[GASabresIUFAN]

25 minutes ago, Weave said:

Hockey Viz projected 86pts. And still had us finishing near where we finished last season.

I haven't seen their projection.  However a 10+ point year over year improvement would be a very good result for this coming season.

 

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

If you are objectively listening to what they say and watching how they have played this preseason and the last 28 games last season, this team clearly believes they can win any game they play. I dont believe for a second they "hope" to win. They believe they "will" win. They don't seem fragile at all. 

The amount of woe is us projection on this board is why I took weeks away over the summer from the "welllllll idk, they are fragile still" to the "anderson is the starter" is just some type of past reality that you and others seem to want to live in for some reason. 

This team believes they will win every game. Instead of will you can use the word can if that makes you comfortable but it isn't "we hope to win" and honestly at this point I think the fan base is the one in need of a culture change. 

"Woe is us" is definitely in the eye of the beholder.

I think, pretty objectively, this board is clearly more bullish about the Sabres chances than observers are around the NHL - to a significant degree.

I agree with you that the culture change has already happened in the room.

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

"Woe is us" is definitely in the eye of the beholder.

I think, pretty objectively, this board is clearly more bullish about the Sabres chances than observers are around the NHL - to a significant degree.

I agree with you that the culture change has already happened in the room.

And the people on the board SHOULD be more optimistic than the general analysts.  WE are expecting big things from Power and other young guys that the pundits don't expect because they've got 32 teams to watch & a team that was irrelevant that had either Comrie or Lyubushkin as the "big" FA isn't worth investigating that closely.  The analytics guys aren't seeing it because as @GASabresIUFAN and others have brought up, their models don't handle rookies well nor are they particularly adept at modeling young players & guys coming off injuries in general as the models are usually linear but they're players that are on a more complex curve.  And it's a big part of why the models always significantly miss some teams.  They don't make enough money to have huge staffs looking into every team in detail with customized projections for each player.

Still expect low 90's but w/ a pretty large SD so mid-80's if goaltending and other things like injuries bite them hard & really close to NHL 0.600 if goaltending & a skater or 2 exceed expectations which puts playoffs in play.

Nobody outside sees it, because there's too much leaguewide to be looking at.  And the late season run is likely getting chalked up to caring when the other team couldn't get up for the game.  That explains October, not the last 25ish games.  And that's part of the underestimation.