Annual expectations thread 2022/23: #71 Victor Olofsson

[nfreeman]

Well, the 8 other wise men of the board and me are looking pretty good on this right now.

In all seriousness:  I think VO has a good shot to score 40 this year if he stays healthy.  He’ll have 1 more year under contract next summer and be eligible for an extension.  At what point do the Sabres have to seriously try to keep him?

[GASabresIUFAN]

He has moved from being a PP specialist to an empty net goal specialist.  At this pace he might score 25 empty net goals. By way the NHL record in a season is 9.  Ovie tied it last year (Bure in 99/2000 was the first to 9).  I think VO will blow this record out of the water.

[Sabel79]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He has moved from being a PP specialist to an empty net goal specialist.  At this pace he might score 25 empty net goals. By way the NHL record in a season is 9.  Ovie tied it last year (Bure in 99/2000 was the first to 9).  I think VO will blow this record out of the water.

If this happens, it means the Sabres are really good.  I'll take it. 

[bob_sauve28]

11 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Well, the 8 other wise men of the board and me are looking pretty good on this right now.

In all seriousness:  I think VO has a good shot to score 40 this year if he stays healthy.  He’ll have 1 more year under contract next summer and be eligible for an extension.  At what point do the Sabres have to seriously try to keep him?

Touch call with all the other talent coming up. They seem to be trying to move Quinn into his PP spot now, Rosen has a similar style and then all the other forwards we have, so if he does leave there will be no shortage of players fighting for his spot. 

[mjd1001]

11 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He has moved from being a PP specialist to an empty net goal specialist.  At this pace he might score 25 empty net goals. By way the NHL record in a season is 9.  Ovie tied it last year (Bure in 99/2000 was the first to 9).  I think VO will blow this record out of the water.

FYI over his last 41 games (picked 41 because the math is easy, it includes all of this year and last year after he returned/got better from his injury)

-21 goals, 8 of them on the PP, 4 empty net.

-Over 82 games that comes to a pace of 42 goals, 16 on the PP, 8 empty net. (that leaves 26 even strength, 18 even strength not empty net).  That pretty much makes him 2nd or 3rd on the team in even strength goals (depending on how you calculate it and over what term).  He also leads the team in game winning goals.

He may not hit, he may have games where he isn't noticable (even stretches of games), but so far this year and since his wrist got better last year, he has proven himself to be a very valuable member of this team. Leads in game winning goals. BETTER then most people think scoring even strength.  AND, when this team has a stretch of bad play on the PP, everyone says they need to fix that, but the 'fix' usuall involved getting Olofsson the puck and having him put it in the net for PP goals.

Olofsson if healthy, and that is a big 'IF', should be a guy you rely on for close to 30 goals, with a chance in any given year to approach 40.  He also is a 'quick fix' for a broken or struggling PP. What is that worth?  They have Quinn and Peterka and others in the system, but Olofsson already IS what he is, you are just hoping Quinn and Peterka can become that. The Solution likely is within 1-2 years, you are going to have to move one of them.  If Quinn/Peterka do NOT turn into their potential, maybe they are moved, if they both become 30 goal scorers (or are on their way to becoming that), you have to decide between the 3, probably based on contract value/length.

At the moment, I am not looking forward to moving Olofsson nor am I thinking of a team in 2-3 years from now that is better becuase he isn't here and someone else is.

Edited November 4, 2022 by mjd1001

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Touch call with all the other talent coming up. They seem to be trying to move Quinn into his PP spot now, Rosen has a similar style and then all the other forwards we have, so if he does leave there will be no shortage of players fighting for his spot. 

This is indeed the issue.  There is a lot of talent coming up in the system.  However, that talent is on paper, and VO is a consistent goal-scorer IRL -- and he gets a bit better every year.  He turns 28 next July.

I think the following results are highly plausible for this season:

VO -- 38 goals  (although as I've said, I think he will get 40 if he stays healthy)

Quinn -- 13 goals

JJP -- 15 goals

If their actual results end up looking like that, are they really going to not try to keep him and just assume that Quinn, JJP, Kulich is going to turn into that kind of goal-scorer?

Or are they going to offer, say, a 4-year extension at $6MM per year, which would cover his age 29 through 32 seasons?

 

 

 

[bob_sauve28]

6 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

This is indeed the issue.  There is a lot of talent coming up in the system.  However, that talent is on paper, and VO is a consistent goal-scorer IRL -- and he gets a bit better every year.  He turns 28 next July.

I think the following results are highly plausible for this season:

VO -- 38 goals  (although as I've said, I think he will get 40 if he stays healthy)

Quinn -- 13 goals

JJP -- 15 goals

If their actual results end up looking like that, are they really going to not try to keep him and just assume that Quinn, JJP, Kulich is going to turn into that kind of goal-scorer?

Or are they going to offer, say, a 4-year extension at $6MM per year, which would cover his age 29 through 32 seasons?

 

 

 

Maybe it will depend on how well he does on our first run for the cup 

[RochesterExpat]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

If their actual results end up looking like that, are they really going to not try to keep him and just assume that Quinn, JJP, Kulich is going to turn into that kind of goal-scorer?

I suspect the answer to this question is directly related to how the salary cup jump affects contract AAV and term this off-season. VO is going to be 29 at the start of his next contract and that was the absolute prime age for an overpay contract via excessive term in the pre-flat cap era. I'm pretty sure Buffalo is aware of that as is, unfortunately, VO's agent.

As of today, for core pieces, we'll need to sign Cozens after this season (preferably before the end of it, frankly) as well as Asplund. And Michael Houser, of course.

After 2023-2024, we will need to re-sign the core pieces of Dahlin (RIP Cap) and Owen Power (I'm assuming he'll be a core piece) as well as potential core pieces of Mitts, Krebs, Joki, Bryson, Lybushkin, Comrie, and UPL.

We'll have to do that with enough room left for JJ and Quinn the following year. It's also not counting cap space for any of the five signed 1st or 2nd round draft picks who could potentially be breaking the roster the season VO's contract is up which means future contracts for them will need to be considered.

If Buffalo can re-sign VO without tying the Sabres down to term, I think Buffalo keeps him. If it's apparent that free agent contracts return to the previous norm of overpaying 28/29 year-old players for 7 years because the salary cap is treated like the stock market and can only go up, I really hope Buffalo trades VO instead of letting him walk or signing him to a long-term deal that hurts the team later. I also don't blame VO if he makes it apparent he wants to chase the free agency payday. 

Although, honestly, now that I think about it, of all the players we could punished for signing long-term contracts at age 29 to, it's hard to see VO's being one that regresses terribly by year 7. Lets be real, his money isn't in his skating or aggressiveness--it's his shot and his pass. Those two skills generally don't age as poorly as skating and physicality (that latter just ages into perennial LTIR). 

Huh. I wrote all that and now I'm just wondering how to find advanced stats for one-dimensional players and how they regress with age.

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, nfreeman said:

This is indeed the issue.  There is a lot of talent coming up in the system.  However, that talent is on paper, and VO is a consistent goal-scorer IRL -- and he gets a bit better every year.  He turns 28 next July.

I think the following results are highly plausible for this season:

VO -- 38 goals  (although as I've said, I think he will get 40 if he stays healthy)

Quinn -- 13 goals

JJP -- 15 goals

If their actual results end up looking like that, are they really going to not try to keep him and just assume that Quinn, JJP, Kulich is going to turn into that kind of goal-scorer?

Or are they going to offer, say, a 4-year extension at $6MM per year, which would cover his age 29 through 32 seasons?

 

 

 

VO is a guy I have a hard time deciding on what his value really is. Ultimately I think I come down on the one dimensional side. 4 years at that number seems too much to me as we do have talent coming and money will be needed as you said. I would consider 3 years at that value but otherwise I'd want a lower number.

Ultimately, with the potential speed and scoring talent we have coming I think if anything we will want some money lying around to add depth and grit to the roster if we want to be a playoff team. Plug the holes for whoever is missing. This option however is something KA has to judge from the reactions he starts to receive. Will we still be a destination players don't want to come to and if we are, better to stick with those we already have. 

[Radar]

My prediction. He'll be traded before current deal expires.

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, RochesterExpat said:

I suspect the answer to this question is directly related to how the salary cup jump affects contract AAV and term this off-season. VO is going to be 29 at the start of his next contract and that was the absolute prime age for an overpay contract via excessive term in the pre-flat cap era. I'm pretty sure Buffalo is aware of that as is, unfortunately, VO's agent.

As of today, for core pieces, we'll need to sign Cozens after this season (preferably before the end of it, frankly) as well as Asplund. And Michael Houser, of course.

After 2023-2024, we will need to re-sign the core pieces of Dahlin (RIP Cap) and Owen Power (I'm assuming he'll be a core piece) as well as potential core pieces of Mitts, Krebs, Joki, Bryson, Lybushkin, Comrie, and UPL.

We'll have to do that with enough room left for JJ and Quinn the following year. It's also not counting cap space for any of the five signed 1st or 2nd round draft picks who could potentially be breaking the roster the season VO's contract is up which means future contracts for them will need to be considered.

If Buffalo can re-sign VO without tying the Sabres down to term, I think Buffalo keeps him. If it's apparent that free agent contracts return to the previous norm of overpaying 28/29 year-old players for 7 years because the salary cap is treated like the stock market and can only go up, I really hope Buffalo trades VO instead of letting him walk or signing him to a long-term deal that hurts the team later. I also don't blame VO if he makes it apparent he wants to chase the free agency payday. 

Although, honestly, now that I think about it, of all the players we could punished for signing long-term contracts at age 29 to, it's hard to see VO's being one that regresses terribly by year 7. Lets be real, his money isn't in his skating or aggressiveness--it's his shot and his pass. Those two skills generally don't age as poorly as skating and physicality (that latter just ages into perennial LTIR). 

Huh. I wrote all that and now I'm just wondering how to find advanced stats for one-dimensional players and how they regress with age.

 

Good stuff here, especially the point about the expected growth in the cap.

I don't think the Sabres will, or should, give VO a 7-year deal.  But if they offer him the 4-extension I proposed next summer, from VO's perspective, that would give him 5 more years under contract (from the time he signs the extension) at a pretty rich salary, with the opportunity to sign one more deal at age 33 -- which will be there for him if he scores, say, 27 goals in his age-32 season -- which is quite plausible given his skill set as you point out.

Would he turn that down in favor of playing out his deal and hoping to cash in on UFA?  Maybe.  Or maybe this season will be so much GD fun that he can't imagine walking away from $25MM or so guaranteed to stay with this team.

From the Sabres' perspective, next summer, they will absolutely need to sign Cozens.  But will they prioritize Asplund over VO?  And would they prioritize saving cash for Mitts, Krebs, Joki, etc. over the rich, juicy bird in the hand that VO represents?

It's a tricky one.

 

1 hour ago, Radar said:

My prediction. He'll be traded before current deal expires.

Very possible.

[RochesterExpat]

26 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

But will they prioritize Asplund over VO?

This is an interesting question because superficially you'd assume the answer is VO, but Asplund is a role player that doesn't currently have any obvious pipeline replacement for his spot. Don't know.

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 hours ago, nfreeman said:

This is indeed the issue.  There is a lot of talent coming up in the system.  However, that talent is on paper, and VO is a consistent goal-scorer IRL -- and he gets a bit better every year.  He turns 28 next July.

I think the following results are highly plausible for this season:

VO -- 38 goals  (although as I've said, I think he will get 40 if he stays healthy)

Quinn -- 13 goals

JJP -- 15 goals

If their actual results end up looking like that, are they really going to not try to keep him and just assume that Quinn, JJP, Kulich is going to turn into that kind of goal-scorer?

Or are they going to offer, say, a 4-year extension at $6MM per year, which would cover his age 29 through 32 seasons?

 

 

 

Some guys will be voted off the island to make room for Savoie, Rosen, Kulich and others possibly as early as next year.  Rosen and Kulich are nearly pt a game scorers in the AHL at 19 & 18 respectively. Savoie, who can only join the NHL or be returned to the WHL next year, is picking up where he left off last year.  These 3 and Rousek, also a pt a game so far, are probably already knocking on the door.  Hard decisions will have to be made for eventual cap reasons and to give guys pushing up from below their opportunity.

This is a huge year for Asplund, Mitts, Krebs, VO, Z, and KO if they want to be part of things here long-term.  Guys are coming for their jobs.  If injuries strike (G-d forbid) upfront, I’d love to see Weissbach and Rousek get a chance.  I think Rousek is Z’s eventual replacement. 

As to VO, I wouldn’t mind keeping him long-term, shooters of his quality don’t come around very often and we are lucky enough to have 3 (TnT and Quinn also).  I’d love to have one sniper on all 3 main lines for years to come, but his 2 year deal seems very much like a bridge for Quinn to eventually assume his role allowing a roster spot  for Savoie or another prospect.

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 minutes ago, RochesterExpat said:

This is an interesting question because superficially you'd assume the answer is VO, but Asplund is a role player that doesn't currently have any obvious pipeline replacement for his spot. Don't know.

It’s ultimately about cap space, roster spots and role on the team. Asplund will be much cheaper to keep, allowing cap $ to be spent elsewhere.  He also is our top defensive forward, can play both center and wing, and is still under team control   He is also 3 years younger than VO.  Still how do you replace a 30+ goal scorer?  It’s nearly impossible without having a read made younger and cheaper player ready to take over that scoring role (like Quinn). VO will also have to want to stay as he is an UFA after next season. 

KA has to make decisions on KO, Z, Cozens & Asplund after this season and then Mitts, Dahlin, Power, VO, Krebs, Bush, Comrie, and Bryson after next. I don’t envy him the task.  There is only so much cap to go around.

[Hank]

40 goal scorers don't sign for 6M. I don't see Olofsson as part of the core going forward and I believe he's pricing himself out of a job in Buffalo as I think he'll be able to command significantly more money than Adams will be willing to give him. On the plus side I think his trade value is going higher with each goal and I'm hoping Adams uses him to upgrade the defense. 

Girgs is criminally underrated by some on this board. 

[Taro T]

40 minutes ago, Hank said:

40 goal scorers don't sign for 6M. I don't see Olofsson as part of the core going forward and I believe he's pricing himself out of a job in Buffalo as I think he'll be able to command significantly more money than Adams will be willing to give him. On the plus side I think his trade value is going higher with each goal and I'm hoping Adams uses him to upgrade the defense. 

Girgs is criminally underrated by some on this board. 

To the bolded, yes.  And one of these years he'll get his wish and Girgensons will be gone.  But until it actually happens, won't expect it.

[Zamboni]

Until he actually scores 40 goals, I’ll stand by my opinion and say he will not get to 40. In fact, I think he won’t get to 35 either. 

[JustOneParade]

14 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It’s ultimately about cap space, roster spots and role on the team. Asplund will be much cheaper to keep, allowing cap $ to be spent elsewhere.  He also is our top defensive forward, can play both center and wing, and is still under team control   He is also 3 years younger than VO.  Still how do you replace a 30+ goal scorer?  It’s nearly impossible without having a read made younger and cheaper player ready to take over that scoring role (like Quinn). VO will also have to want to stay as he is an UFA after next season. 

KA has to make decisions on KO, Z, Cozens & Asplund after this season and then Mitts, Dahlin, Power, VO, Krebs, Bush, Comrie, and Bryson after next. I don’t envy him the task.  There is only so much cap to go around.

This is pretty interesting. Three or four high-end forward prospects pushing for jobs soon on a Sabres roster that has no JAGS to replace. What a huge leap from just a couple years ago. Now if we can just get that quantity and quality of talent in the D corps.