Sabres Training Camp 2022

[dudacek]

8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Oh no sir, we are not a playoff contending team even if the goaltending is Ullmark quality (as Doohickie called it). We might be much better than last year but we are in thick with most of the really good competition. Who is dropping out? Boston was the only possible drop with the injuries but they got both Bergeron and Krejci and have Lindholm from day 1, they have one last kick at the can in them. Then there's improved Ottawa, Detroit and maybe even Columbus, just who do you think we are knocking out for a playoff spot? 

Pittsburgh, Washington and Boston are all on their last legs, but they're all still in it. In a couple years they might all be out and we'll be in with Ottawa and Detroit instead, but it's unlikely that's this season. Might actually be why Adams didn't fix the goaltending and would rather take his time with the kids. We could rise to Tampa level in 5 years or so with that strategy if things go right. 

I get the common belief the wheels are going to fall off the Bruins eventually as Bergeron and Marchand age out.

But while they're still contributing I find it very hard to see a team with a top 4 of McAvoy/Lindholm/Grelczyk/Carlo and a duo of Ullmark/Swayman in net missing the playoffs.

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I get the common belief the wheels are going to fall off the Bruins eventually as Bergeron and Marchand age out.

But while they're still contributing I find it very hard to see a team with a top 4 of McAvoy/Lindholm/Grelczyk/Carlo and a duo of Ullmark/Swayman in net missing the playoffs.

Aren't 2 of those defenders injured to start the year though?

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

I get the common belief the wheels are going to fall off the Bruins eventually as Bergeron and Marchand age out.

But while they're still contributing I find it very hard to see a team with a top 4 of McAvoy/Lindholm/Grelczyk/Carlo and a duo of Ullmark/Swayman in net missing the playoffs.

I think so too, although a lot might depend on how Swayman develops. You know the funny thing is a lot of Bruins fans feel their D isn't good enough. Talk about a high bar!!! If Marchand and McAvoy heal properly and return in a reasonable time frame they will be in the playoffs, at least this once more. 

It's going to be really hard to move up. I just want incremental improvement each year and then we will get there and stay there like some of these teams have done. Crosby and Ovi won't last forever. Tampa will start to get old too. There is hope for a conference flip but not just yet. 

[Thorner]

16 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Comrie was 2nd in GSAE (Goals Saved Above Expected) last season when adjusted by TOI, so per 60minutes. 

Igor Shesterkin: 0.666

Eric Comrie: 0.603

Linus Ullmark: 0.147

So even though Comrie only has 19 games compared to Ullmark's 41, Comrie saved 10.3gsae compared to 5.7 for Linus. Comrie is all about analytics key-ing in on a guy and then the scouts and Adams going to work. Definitely a gamble but it isn't like Comrie was behind some amazing defense last year and had magic numbers. The career sv% numbers in this case are being ignored. 

I think he was 100% a target because of the work analytics did. 

Yes I am familiar with those numbers and dudacek already made the analytics point, thanks 

- - -

The biggest thing with Comrie is his exceptionally small sample size that the advanced numbers are being drawn from and whether those will translate up when/if he locks down the role he hasn’t yet to this point. 

Edited September 14, 2022 by Thorny

[Jävə Keith]

On 9/10/2022 at 11:13 AM, Brawndo said:

Tuch, Cozens and Okposo have been practicing together since Mid August 

Right there are our 3 Captains

[French Collection]

11 minutes ago, Jävə Keith said:

Right there are our 3 Captains

Definitely part of the leadership group.

Id like to be a fly on the wall and listen to the dressing room conversations.

[LGR4GM]

47 minutes ago, Jävə Keith said:

Right there are our 3 Captains

I think Dahlin will wear a letter as well. 

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I think Dahlin will wear a letter as well. 

I hope so, he does not look like the rah-rah type, but he is internally driven to win and will lead by example.

[Doohicksie]

On 9/12/2022 at 10:21 PM, Thorny said:

Ullmark - 158gp, .913 sv%

Comrie - 28gp, .905 sv%

Last season: 

Ullmark - 158gp, .917 sv%

Comrie - 28gp, .920 sv%

On 9/12/2022 at 10:21 PM, Thorny said:

Definitely no guarantee we get Ullmark level GT from Comrie, we are basically hoping that with the increased usage he hasn’t been able to earn in the past he’s able to find more consistency and bump up that sv% a tad. 

That's exactly what happened last season.

[Doohicksie]

On 9/13/2022 at 9:27 AM, ddaryl said:

Comrie at this junction = UPL and Anderson

A conservative assessment.  I think it's likely that he's better than the others.

[LGR4GM]

13 hours ago, Thorny said:

Yes I am familiar with those numbers and dudacek already made the analytics point, thanks 

- - -

The biggest thing with Comrie is his exceptionally small sample size that the advanced numbers are being drawn from and whether those will translate up when/if he locks down the role he hasn’t yet to this point. 

I think we are all aware of that. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Someone mentioned up thread that this will be a very competitive camp.  Maybe for who plays with who, but not who actually makes the roster.  Baring injuries, 21 players on the roster are already pretty much set in stone.

Goalie: Comrie, Anderson

Defense: Dahlin, Power, Bryson, Jokiharju, Samuelsson and Lyubushkin

Forwards: Skinner, TNT, Tuch, VO, Mitts, Cozens, Krebs, Asplund, Girgensons, KO, Quinn, JJP and Vinnie.

That doesn’t really leave much room for someone to take a roster spot.

There will be a roster spot for at least one D.  I assume Pilut, Clague and Fitz will be competing for the 7th D slot.  The only real roster question is will the Sabres carry 14 forwards or 8 D or stay at 22 players.  Personally, I’m betting on 14 forwards.  If we carry 14 forwards Sheahan or Bjork could earn a spot. If they carry 8 D then 2 of Pilut, Clague or Fitz will make the squad.  

 

 

Edited September 15, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorner]

9 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Last season: 

Ullmark - 158gp, .917 sv%

Comrie - 28gp, .920 sv%

That's exactly what happened last season.

No, Comrie played 19 games last season. That’s not really what I have in mind for sample size. I’d trade his .920 over 19 for .917 over 41 any day of the week. 

Over the 19 game sample size, Comrie will have saved a total of 1 goal more than Ullmark over, say, 30 shots against a game. 

I’ll take Ullmark and his extra 22 gp. That’s what I’d like to see Comrie do. Comrie doesn’t really have any sample size *at all* to draw on before last season, playing a total of 9 NHL games. For all intents and purposes we’re looking to see if he can bump up his usage from less games than you’d want to see even from a backup (19), which he’s done a grand total of once, to the amount you’d like to see from a starter. It’s a huge jump, but I think he’s got a shot at it. 

But we are looking to get, ideally, starter output from someone who hasn’t even established as a backup. Therein lies the risk. But it’s a bet on talent, and I’ve certainly seen flashes of the talent first-hand.

Edited September 15, 2022 by Thorny

[dudacek]

It's the combos that get my mind buzzing:

I think Tage/Skinner is the only given.

Tuch worked well with them, but I also like the idea of him with Mitts and, really, his game fits with anyone.

Asplund usually gets pushed down to the '4th line' in most of the mocks I've seen, but I don't think that's a given. he seems to boost whatever line he's on, and his defence is in high demand on the this roster.

In fact the number of offence-first players on the team, coupled with Donnie's attacking style make me doubt if there will be a traditional 4-line hierarchy. Are you sure Zemgus will be on a "checking" line?

Cozens/Krebs was a thing. I like the concept of Krebs/Olofsson. How do we maximize Krebs ability as a passer? Quinn/Peterka were great on the Amerks, will they have to be broken up in Buffalo? They each have pretty rounded games.

If you push the traditional line hierarchy (other than a JAG line, Grananto didn't really use it at even strength) out the window and just look at chemistry there are so many intriguing options.

[Zamboni]

I think like a last season… DG will switch out players all over the lineup. He might have sets of two that are semi-constant… And then switch out that third player. And do that with all four lines throughout most of the season… Unless of course all three players are scorching hot on that line. Just how I see it playing out…

 

There’s gonna be so many predictions of so many line combinations… That someone is bound to get one line right 😂

 

[dudacek]

Completely out of the box?

Asplund Krebs Olofsson

Quinn Cozens Okposo

Girgensons Mittelstadt Tuch

Skinner Thompson Peterka

[GASabresIUFAN]

What were the lines at the end of last season? I think they were something like this.

Skinner Tnt Tuch

Krebs Cozens VO

Asplund Mitts KO

Vinnie Girgensons Bjork

but also we saw late last year some VO Mitts Cozens

 

One other note, I think the only "pair" that is probably written in ink is TNT with Tuch.  28 of Tage's 38 goals came once Alex was put on his line.

Threading the nettle on line pairs with this many talented yet mostly unproven forwards, is going to be nearly impossible coming out of camp.  It may 20 or so games to actually bare fruit.

Finding the right usage for Krebs, Quinn and JJP is going to be a real challenge.  

 

 

Edited September 15, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[bob_sauve28]

 

[Doohicksie]

8 hours ago, Thorny said:

I’ll take Ullmark and his extra 22 gp.

But that's not really an option, is it? 

I was just countering the point made that Comrie was .905 trash.  Maybe he's not consistently a .920 goalie, but he's trending the right way.

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, Thorny said:

No, Comrie played 19 games last season. That’s not really what I have in mind for sample size. I’d trade his .920 over 19 for .917 over 41 any day of the week. 

Over the 19 game sample size, Comrie will have saved a total of 1 goal more than Ullmark over, say, 30 shots against a game. 

I’ll take Ullmark and his extra 22 gp. That’s what I’d like to see Comrie do. Comrie doesn’t really have any sample size *at all* to draw on before last season, playing a total of 9 NHL games. For all intents and purposes we’re looking to see if he can bump up his usage from less games than you’d want to see even from a backup (19), which he’s done a grand total of once, to the amount you’d like to see from a starter. It’s a huge jump, but I think he’s got a shot at it. 

But we are looking to get, ideally, starter output from someone who hasn’t even established as a backup. Therein lies the risk. But it’s a bet on talent, and I’ve certainly seen flashes of the talent first-hand.

If you don't take into account the shots and you view all shots as equal, this would be correct. It is the big flaw with save%

[nucci]

8 hours ago, Zamboni said:

I think like a last season… DG will switch out players all over the lineup. He might have sets of two that are semi-constant… And then switch out that third player. And do that with all four lines throughout most of the season… Unless of course all three players are scorching hot on that line. Just how I see it playing out…

 

There’s gonna be so many predictions of so many line combinations… That someone is bound to get one line right 😂

 

and they will change throughout the season

[bob_sauve28]

I really do hope DG tries to mess VO with Krebs. That seems like it could be a sweet combination. 

[LGR4GM]

22 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

I really do hope DG tries to mess VO with Krebs. That seems like it could be a sweet combination. 

in transition yes. i dont know about puck retrieval and cycles though

[dudacek]

18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

in transition yes. i dont know about puck retrieval and cycles though

Yep, that's why they need Asplund or Tuch or even Girgensons with them.

i wonder if Krebs has improved his strength, because with it, the cycle shouldn't be a problem.

He looked notably batter in that area in the AHL playoffs than he did back in December down there.

[Thorner]

10 hours ago, Doohickie said:

But that's not really an option, is it? 

I was just countering the point made that Comrie was .905 trash.  Maybe he's not consistently a .920 goalie, but he's trending the right way.

Sigh. I said “That’s what I’d like to see Comrie do.” I obviously know Ullmark specifically isn’t an option (hold on, wait, he’s not on the roster anymore?), nor did I say he had a “trash” sv%. My point, which I’m now making for the third or 4th time is that it’s about seeing whether Comrie can put together a sample size he hasn’t yet come close to outputting now at age 27. 

Do I think he CAN do it? Yes. But whether he can bump up what’s a minuscule sample size over a larger, and sufficient amount of games is where the risk comes in. Apparently what they’ve seen in the numbers suggests they believe he can do it. 

His stats last year were good. To be honest we can start his base as 19 games, .920, and forget the other 9 game spot starts as they don’t provide very much information. My question is only about whether he can translate what we saw over 19, to something similar (even .917) over something like 45-50 games, because last I checked, we were looking for a Starter.

Edited September 15, 2022 by Thorny