Buffalo Bills 2022-23

[LGR4GM]

I think one thing that is perhaps based on false perception is that this is a knee jerk reaction. For me, I don't feel that way. Beane has had multiple concerning drafts. Dorsey has been trending down since even the Miami game where his red zone play calling was abhorrent. Frazier has been basically dead to me since 13 seconds and the way he just made no changes this year after that game is a direct indictment of who is as a football mind. Bend don't break only works if teams don't do what Burrow does best, take whatever is open for easy 5-8 yard games. Hell yesterday it was 3rd and 5 or 6 and Frazier schemed his corners to be 10 yards off the line... dude needs to go. I also think that because this coaching staff has been almost exactly the same, it has gotten stale. Our defense is predictable. 

Again, idk if they will make changes and if they don't I won't meltdown but this team has reached their max level so are you changing out players or coaches or both? Because what we saw last night was a system of this teams season long problems. Buffalo played their superbowl in October when they beat the Cheifs. That's not how championships are won. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Unless that offensive line has a minimum 3 new faces who are all significant improvements over what this year was, no chance. 

Sorry, but most of the guys will be back.

Dawkins 15 mill (13 mill dead cap), Morse 11.3 (5 mill dead cap) and Bates 4.8 mill (6.5 dead cap)  aren't going anywhere.  Brown is a starter making 1.3 (400k dead cap).  I expect all 4 back.  Saffold is also on the books for 2 mill (2 mill dead cap).  

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think one thing that is perhaps based on false perception is that this is a knee jerk reaction. For me, I don't feel that way. Beane has had multiple concerning drafts. Dorsey has been trending down since even the Miami game where his red zone play calling was abhorrent. Frazier has been basically dead to me since 13 seconds and the way he just made no changes this year after that game is a direct indictment of who is as a football mind. Bend don't break only works if teams don't do what Burrow does best, take whatever is open for easy 5-8 yard games. Hell yesterday it was 3rd and 5 or 6 and Frazier schemed his corners to be 10 yards off the line... dude needs to go. I also think that because this coaching staff has been almost exactly the same, it has gotten stale. Our defense is predictable. 

Again, idk if they will make changes and if they don't I won't meltdown but this team has reached their max level so are you changing out players or coaches or both? Because what we saw last night was a system of this teams season long problems. Buffalo played their superbowl in October when they beat the Cheifs. That's not how championships are won. 

I agree with much of the above.  Frazier is not adjust quickly enough if at all and Dorsey play calling is just terrible.  Throwing bomds to Diggs and Davis all game is not an offense.  He was better when Josh was hurt and he had to relay on the running game. 

[Eleven]

22 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

but, if it's 10+

Count on it being 10+ if you know anything about bookmakers.

[That Aud Smell]

18 minutes ago, tom webster said:

Early Vegas odds have them the number two favorite for next years Super Bowl.

how do i fade that.

[SwampD]

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

I’ve tried to stay out of this debate but I’m fascinated by the fact that the consensus seems to be that a 13-3 team that is no worse the. The 6th best team in the league as we speak, have,

1) an inept  head coach

2) terrible coordinators

3) too many roster holes to list

4) a terrible scouting department 

5) an overrated front office.

They were embarrassed yesterday and are clearly a notch behind the four semi-finalist, but how is this all possible?

Aren't 3, 4, and 5 all the same thing?

And Josh covers up a lot of problems.

[Eleven]

1 minute ago, That Aud Smell said:

how do i fade that.

If only there were a way to short or sell sports bets.  My favorite orphanage would be in a mansion on Delaware Ave.

[Porous Five Hole]

2 minutes ago, Eleven said:

If only there were a way to short or sell sports bets.  My favorite orphanage would be in a mansion on Delaware Ave.

I don’t think that info is correct anyway

 

 

5 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

how do i fade that.

I think it is wrong 

[Thorner]

4 hours ago, tom webster said:

I’m not sure there is any data base that proves this statement. I know there is no data base that includes a QB of his size. 
The one data base that does exist? Josh has only been injured while attempting to throw behind the line of scrimmage.

Big Ben and him same height no?

[John Tucker]

26 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Sorry, but most of the guys will be back.

Dawkins 15 mill (13 mill dead cap), Morse 11.3 (5 mill dead cap) and Bates 4.8 mill (6.5 dead cap)  aren't going anywhere.  Brown is a starter making 1.3 (400k dead cap).  I expect all 4 back.  Saffold is also on the books for 2 mill (2 mill dead cap).  

Not sure if Dawkins can play guard, but he has simply become a turnstile at tackle.  And that would be a lot of money to pay an interior lineman.  But maybe that’s the way to go?  Draft a tackle or two on a rookie contract to balance things out.  Dunno.  Something has to give.  The OL killed JA this year.

[John Tucker]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Big Ben and him same height no?

Both are 6’5 but play a very different style of game.  Roetlisberger had mobility in the pocket (in his prime).  I’d compare JA more to Cam Newton.  Same height and build and similar game.  Newton hit an injury wall at 8 years in the league and never was the same.  That would put JA at about 30 years old and would seem to be accurate for a QB with that playing style to hit that injury wall.  Granted, JA’s arm is a lot more lively than Newton and could potentially transition into more of a pocket passer.  But who knows.  The way he gets knocked around he might be out of the game by 30

[Thwomp!]

4 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Well, maybe I should let you answer your own question:

 

What I'll add is this:  McD joined the biggest laughingstock franchise in the NFL.  They weren't just lousy on the field, with a league-record streak of missing the playoffs -- they were an embarrassment off the field, to the point where well-regarded assistant coaches around the NFL would issue press releases stating that they weren't interested in taking the HC job with the Bills. 

Then they brought in McD.  Now, they make the playoffs every year and usually advance, stars from around the league want to come here, alumni of their organization get hired to run other teams, half of their games are on national TV, their players get plenty of league-wide recognition and they are generally viewed as a model, professional franchise.

They lost yesterday to the defending AFC champs, after winning a playoff game the week before and after a season in which, among other things, their franchise QB injured his throwing elbow, they lost their best defensive player and their top safety, who is an important team leader, for the season to injury, their best run-stuffer missed the game with an injury, their best DT was impaired with a shoulder injury, one of their guys more or less was dead on the ground in front of them in a game 20 days previously before being defibrillated back to life, their TE's kid brother collapsed and died on the football field just before the season, their city was hit by a deadly blizzard that killed 40 people and caused them to lose a home game and they had to break in a rookie OC.

That is an enormous number of physical and psychological obstacles to overcome.  But they lost 3 games by a total of 8 points, advanced in the playoffs and then got taken apart by a very good team that has now won 10 in a row and is firing on all cylinders.

The idea of moving on from McD is insanity, IMHO.

 

 

My thoughts on McD are immediately above.  I won't repeat them here, but I will say that if you think we are in coach purgatory, you must not remember the Mularkey/Jauron/Gailey/Rex/other losers era very well.

We disagree about Knox.  I think he's a very good TE.

The D line was indeed manhandled yesterday.  But as noted above its best player, who is also the team's best defensive player, was missing, as was their best run-stuffer, and Oliver, their 2nd-best DL, was impaired by injury as well.

You are also right that Tre White's return to form is uncertain.  I think he's the kind of guy who will make it back, and that assuming he won't based on substandard performance after joining the team 10 weeks into the season, after a major knee injury and missing all of training camp and the first 10 weeks of the season, is a faulty assumption, but YMMV.

I think Hyde is at least as good as Poyer and that it's at least 50/50 that Hyde and White will return in full form next season.

We'll see.

Yeah I was there. Those teams underachieved in large part to their coach and coaching.

This team underachieves in large part to their coach and coaching.

[Thwomp!]

3 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Well, I'd say that all of us humans, even Sabrespace moderators, are not fully formed and have room for improvement. 

In all seriousness:  McD wants to win more than we do.  I am pretty confident that McD will take a long, dispassionate look at himself and his staff in the offseason and will be able to make whatever tough decisions he deems necessary.

From the fans' perspective, since we need to be cold and clinical in evaluating whether a coaching change is needed, I think the question is:  do the expected benefits outweigh the costs?  i.e. would the Bills actually be better off, and advance further in the playoffs if, say, they traded a first-round pick to NO for the rights to Sean Payton? 

Or would the inevitable transition hiccups, the loss of the first-rounder, the unsettling effect on the roster, the increased scrutiny and pressure, etc. bring about worse results, as we are now seeing with the Florida Panthers, who won the President's trophy last season, flamed out in the playoffs and then decided to play fantasy GM and traded their leading scorer and 2nd-best defenseman and replaced their coach, and are now greatly diminished?

OK man I think this is a joke at this point. Mc Clappy is going to honestly evaluate things and make tough decisions?

After what happened last year and his press conference yesterday? NFW that's happening.

[triumph_communes]

3 hours ago, tom webster said:

I’ve tried to stay out of this debate but I’m fascinated by the fact that the consensus seems to be that a 13-3 team that is no worse the. The 6th best team in the league as we speak, have,

1) an inept  head coach

2) terrible coordinators

3) too many roster holes to list

4) a terrible scouting department 

5) an overrated front office.

They were embarrassed yesterday and are clearly a notch behind the four semi-finalist, but how is this all possible?

So we’re the Vikings and they weren’t good. Just a bunch of close games.

[tom webster]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Sorry, but most of the guys will be back.

Dawkins 15 mill (13 mill dead cap), Morse 11.3 (5 mill dead cap) and Bates 4.8 mill (6.5 dead cap)  aren't going anywhere.  Brown is a starter making 1.3 (400k dead cap).  I expect all 4 back.  Saffold is also on the books for 2 mill (2 mill dead cap).  

I don’t know about your other numbers without looking it up but Saffold signed a 1 year deal so he’s not on books for anything. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I don’t know about your other numbers without looking it up but Saffold signed a 1 year deal so he’s not on books for anything. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/
 

Could it be a carry over signing bonus?

[tom webster]

22 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/
 

Could it be a carry over signing bonus?

I really don’t know but I’ve read numerous times how he wants to continue playing and hopes it’s again with the Bills. I also googled article when he signed and it was announced as a one year deal.

I’ll be seeing someone mid-February who will know so if we don’t find out before then, I’ll ask.

[Marvin]

Is it possible to make a few well-positioned cuts, draft for the OL and WR, and still have the depth and quality to stay near the top?

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

I really don’t know but I’ve read numerous times how he wants to continue playing and hopes it’s again with the Bills. I also googled article when he signed and it was announced as a one year deal.

I’ll be seeing someone mid-February who will know so if we don’t find out before then, I’ll ask.

Spotrac lists the $2 mill as a signing bonus w no salary.  My guess this was a way of giving Saffold more $ but fitting it under last year’s cap.

[Scottysabres]

The Bills are done contending for a Bowl for a year or 2. They'll be in the playoffs, but they'll merely be a playoff stepping stone for several other AFC teams that are ahead of them in roster depth.

They have to many holes to fill on both sides of the ball imho.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Scottysabres

[irregularly irregular]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Sorry, but most of the guys will be back.

Dawkins 15 mill (13 mill dead cap), Morse 11.3 (5 mill dead cap) and Bates 4.8 mill (6.5 dead cap)  aren't going anywhere.  Brown is a starter making 1.3 (400k dead cap).  I expect all 4 back.  Saffold is also on the books for 2 mill (2 mill dead cap).  

Dawkins moves to LG and is the back-up LT. Morse starts to begin with and mentors his replacement who is drafted. Bates backs up RG, C, LG. Brown has to win his RT spot, otherwise is the swing tackle. Saffold is an UFA and has to come back at a reasonable price to fight for his position. Yeah, they need to be back and also be pushed down the roster by better options. 

[CTJoe]

7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I think one thing that is perhaps based on false perception is that this is a knee jerk reaction. For me, I don't feel that way. Beane has had multiple concerning drafts. Dorsey has been trending down since even the Miami game where his red zone play calling was abhorrent. Frazier has been basically dead to me since 13 seconds and the way he just made no changes this year after that game is a direct indictment of who is as a football mind. Bend don't break only works if teams don't do what Burrow does best, take whatever is open for easy 5-8 yard games. Hell yesterday it was 3rd and 5 or 6 and Frazier schemed his corners to be 10 yards off the line... dude needs to go. I also think that because this coaching staff has been almost exactly the same, it has gotten stale. Our defense is predictable. 

Again, idk if they will make changes and if they don't I won't meltdown but this team has reached their max level so are you changing out players or coaches or both? Because what we saw last night was a system of this teams season long problems. Buffalo played their superbowl in October when they beat the Cheifs. That's not how championships are won. 

Watching over the game tape it's ridiculous the time Burrow had to throw vs the time Josh did.  Also, the separation the Bengal receivers had vs the bills was sickening.

Frazier??  I can't hate him without knowing how much it's him and how much it's McDermott overruling him.  One thing I'll never forgive is the handling the 13 seconds last year.  Not Monday morning qbing, we were all screaming for a pooch kick (bass's specialty to the 5 yard line).  Do that = game over.  I'll never get oer that or the gross poor coaching in that instance 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://theathletic.com/4116068/2023/01/23/bills-bengals-result-playoffs/
 

This sums things up pretty good.  Bad Oline with worse backups at a key position where Beane has failed to reinforce in the the draft. Poor WR play outside of Diggs, aging safeties, poor results from highly drafted D linemen and terrible play calling by first year OC.  

He talks about a regression from Josh, but there is only so much Josh can do with a terrible O-line, unreliable WRs, and terrible schemes from the rookie OC.  

Also injuries took their toll on this team. Injuries to Miller, White, Hamlin, Poyer, Hyde, and Jones ultimately stopped this team.

Time for Beane to make hard decisions on AJ, Boogie, McKenzie, the entire O-Line, Dorsey, Poyer, and Edmunds.  He has to draft better.  O-line, Safety, WR all need to be addressed.  I also wonder about the O-line coaching.  I’d also re-think Frazier.  Like Dorsey,  he doesn’t adjust well enough or quickly enough to what’s happening.  
 

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 1/17/2023 at 10:52 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Honestly the Bills this year are a marvel.  They are 14-3 despite losing Daboll, the return of gunslinger Josh with the turnovers to show for it, losing All-Pro White for much of the season, losing All-pro Hyde for the season, losing All-pro Poyer for games and him playing hurt, losing All-Pro Von Miller for the 2nd half of the season, the terrible weather forcing a "home" game in Det, an inconsistent and oft injured Oline, inconsistent WR play, Dawson Knox in a funk (and reasonably so) for half the season, and of course the Damar Hamlin situation.  Oh yeah, those 3 losses are by a collective 8 points.  I don't remember a season this chaotic. 

I don't know of any team in the NFL that has overcome so much and remained a top tier team.  The team still has to win 2 more games just to reach the Super Bowl, but I'm not betting against them.

I wrote this a few weeks ago, and when we look back on this season that’s what we’ll remember.  The Athletic seems to agree.  https://theathletic.com/4116116/2023/01/23/bills-bengals-playoffs-result/  It’s worth a read.

Now McBeane needs to find a way to fix the team going forward.

[LGR4GM]

10 hours ago, CTJoe said:

Watching over the game tape it's ridiculous the time Burrow had to throw vs the time Josh did.  Also, the separation the Bengal receivers had vs the bills was sickening.

Frazier??  I can't hate him without knowing how much it's him and how much it's McDermott overruling him.  One thing I'll never forgive is the handling the 13 seconds last year.  Not Monday morning qbing, we were all screaming for a pooch kick (bass's specialty to the 5 yard line).  Do that = game over.  I'll never get oer that or the gross poor coaching in that instance 

 

This was the final nail in my "Fire Frazier" coffin. He coaches to limit big plays but not to win and this is now the 2nd playoff game that it directly results in a loss. Frazier was so terrified of giving up the td that he backed everyone miles away from the play and this became an easy completion for Burrows. Bend don't break doesn't work when you bend every play all game to the point you are giving away easy first downs. 

 

Frazier coaches not to lose but he doesn't coach to win.