Buffalo Bills 2022-23

[ubkev]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

The NFL proving once again that it is exactly what I've always known it to be.

Boy. Now it's a penalty to even tackle Tom Brady.

That's hilarious.

Don't sweat it. It's a penalty to tackle Derek Carr now too.

[Doohicksie]

Every time I hear Troy Aikman say anything, all I can think is, "What a tool."

[Taro T]

19 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Every time I hear Troy Aikman say anything, all I can think is, "What a tool."

And then Joe Buck reopens his pie hole & proves once again that Aikman isn't the biggest tool in that booth.

[Flashsabre]

When it was 17-0 Raiders you just knew KC was coming back to erase that lead.

Bills and Chiefs just seem to be able to march down the field whenever they want to.

[Wyldnwoody44]

Defensive holding on a FG, can't say I've ever seen that one....Terrible officiating on both sides. But McDaniel and his brilliant 2 PT try and then not using the back that has been wrecking it all game at the end there. WTF are the Raiders even thinking, he's gonna get fired and probably soon. 

[Buffalonill]

Welp adams we all suffer You should have stayed .

[Doohicksie]

Why wouldn't you tie the game up by kicking the extra point?  That was dumb by the Raiders.

[That Aud Smell]

8 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Why wouldn't you tie the game up by kicking the extra point?  That was dumb by the Raiders.

NFL teams often roll the dice on winning (where they have offensive control over the outcome) rather than roll the dice on OT (where they may not get the ball).

Isn’t that essentially what the Bills did in 2021 when Josh slipped against the Titans?

[Doohicksie]

Yeah, seems like that backfires more than it works.

[JujuFish]

17 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Yeah, seems like that backfires more than it works.

If the Bills had gone for 2 with 13 seconds left, they might be reigning champions right now.

[That Aud Smell]

26 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Yeah, seems like that backfires more than it works.

Some teams started going for 2 in order to win rather than kick a 1 point PAT in order to go to OT - or, as in the case of the Bills/Titans slip game, started going for a TD in order to win rather thank kicking a field goal to go to OT - when the data demonstrated that the better risk is to go for the win rather than play for the tie. There's a 2018 OP-ED from some University of Chicago business school eggheads that seems like a fair statement of the conclusions reached:

"In research to be published ... we examined every instance over a recent 10-year period in which N.F.L. teams faced a choice in the final minutes between kicking an extra point to tie the game or going for a 2-point conversion to win. The teams overwhelmingly chose to avoid the risk of immediate defeat: Of the 47 times teams faced this situation, they opted to kick the extra point 42 times (89 percent).

This bias can be costly. Teams that chose to avoid the 2-point conversion won the game only 40 percent of the time, which is well below the average rate of successful 2-point conversions (about 50 percent). Surely some of those teams should have known they were underdogs if the game went into overtime, and mistakenly avoided a risk they should have taken."

[Doohicksie]

27 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

This bias can be costly. Teams that chose to avoid the 2-point conversion won the game only 40 percent of the time, which is well below the average rate of successful 2-point conversions (about 50 percent). Surely some of those teams should have known they were underdogs if the game went into overtime, and mistakenly avoided a risk they should have taken."

But what about what happens after the 2-point conversion?  Of that 50% that succeeded, how many games would still be lost?  It's more than 0 (unless there was no time on the clock when the TD was scored).

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

Yeah, seems like that backfires more than it works.

Brian Daboll says “hold my beer.”

[Doohicksie]

3 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Brian Daboll says “hold my beer.”

The exception that proves the rule.

[K-9]

1 minute ago, Doohickie said:

The exception that proves the rule.

That wasn’t the spirit of my post, which was offered as a joke. 

It is essentially a 50/50 proposition so there isn’t a hard rule or exception, regardless.

[Doohicksie]

31 minutes ago, K-9 said:

That wasn’t the spirit of my post, which was offered as a joke. 

It is essentially a 50/50 proposition so there isn’t a hard rule or exception, regardless.

Oh I know, but I stated a position, you don't expect me to back of of that, do you??? 😉

[Doohicksie]

One thing about Bills receivers (that wasn't true several years ago):  They're very good at adjusting to a ball that isn't thrown perfectly and taking it away.... case in point, Shakir's TD reception.

And Davis's second TD grab:

 

[shrader]

I guess I never looked too closely at that 2nd TD to Davis.  The throw looks just about perfect.  Did the CB have his left hand tied up?

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

But what about what happens after the 2-point conversion?  Of that 50% that succeeded, how many games would still be lost?  It's more than 0 (unless there was no time on the clock when the TD was scored).

Not sure. There's lots of data out there and articles regarding the same. And I'm sure the NFL teams are dealing with data that isn't in the public domain. There are definitely reasons that there's been a rise (a sharp one?) in teams going for 2 in situations where - traditionally - teams always kicked the PAT, or, relatedly, pushing for 6 to win a game rather than kicking a field goal to force OT.

2 minutes ago, shrader said:

I guess I never looked too closely at that 2nd TD to Davis.  The throw looks just about perfect.  Did the CB have his left hand tied up?

More than that, the DB had the ball in his hands. Then Davis ripped it away from him.

[shrader]

1 minute ago, That Aud Smell said:

More than that, the DB had the ball in his hands. Then Davis ripped it away from him.

Right, but why the one handed grab in the first place?

[That Aud Smell]

9 minutes ago, shrader said:

Right, but why the one handed grab in the first place?

They looked to be hand fighting as the ball arrived.

[Eleven]

2 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

a fair statement of the conclusions reached:

"In research to be published ... we examined every instance over a recent 10-year period in which N.F.L. teams faced a choice in the final minutes between kicking an extra point to tie the game or going for a 2-point conversion to win. The teams overwhelmingly chose to avoid the risk of immediate defeat: Of the 47 times teams faced this situation, they opted to kick the extra point 42 times (89 percent).

This bias can be costly. Teams that chose to avoid the 2-point conversion won the game only 40 percent of the time, which is well below the average rate of successful 2-point conversions (about 50 percent). Surely some of those teams should have known they were underdogs if the game went into overtime, and mistakenly avoided a risk they should have taken."

NFL coaching is unusually risk-averse when considering normal risk/reward information.  The Bills no longer are punting in inappropriate situations, but for how many years did they, even in the face of hard data suggesting that punting on 4th and 2 from the opponent's 43 is a bad move?  How many teams still do it now?  (I think about 29 or 30.)

[Taro T]

34 minutes ago, shrader said:

I guess I never looked too closely at that 2nd TD to Davis.  The throw looks just about perfect.  Did the CB have his left hand tied up?

 

31 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Not sure. There's lots of data out there and articles regarding the same. And I'm sure the NFL teams are dealing with data that isn't in the public domain. There are definitely reasons that there's been a rise (a sharp one?) in teams going for 2 in situations where - traditionally - teams always kicked the PAT, or, relatedly, pushing for 6 to win a game rather than kicking a field goal to force OT.

More than that, the DB had the ball in his hands. Then Davis ripped it away from him.

The only reason Fitzpatrick got a hand on it is Davis brought the ball to Minkah as he caught it 1 handed.  If Davis gets both hands on that ball initially, it's a completely clean catch & Gabe doesn't have to rip it away from him.

Had that turned into an INT or a drop that was totally on Gabe (& a great effort by Fitzpatrick).

[Taro T]

10 minutes ago, Eleven said:

NFL coaching is unusually risk-averse when considering normal risk/reward information.  The Bills no longer are punting in inappropriate situations, but for how many years did they, even in the face of hard data suggesting that punting on 4th and 2 from the opponent's 43 is a bad move?  How many teams still do it now?  (I think about 29 or 30.)

But Josh McDaniel is a horrible coach, so even if the analytics suggested it was the right move, it wasn't because McDaniel made the decision.  😉

 

[That Aud Smell]

53 minutes ago, Taro T said:

The only reason Fitzpatrick got a hand on it is Davis brought the ball to Minkah as he caught it 1 handed.  If Davis gets both hands on that ball initially, it's a completely clean catch & Gabe doesn't have to rip it away from him.

Had that turned into an INT or a drop that was totally on Gabe (& a great effort by Fitzpatrick).

It looked like Davis was not at liberty to devote his right hand to the catching effort - as he was using it to manage the DB. Had the pass been picked or dropped, I would not have faulted Davis much.

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

NFL coaching is unusually risk-averse when considering normal risk/reward information.  The Bills no longer are punting in inappropriate situations, but for how many years did they, even in the face of hard data suggesting that punting on 4th and 2 from the opponent's 43 is a bad move?  How many teams still do it now?  (I think about 29 or 30.)

Things are changing steadily, I think.

That said, there is still something to be said for "eye test" evaluations. The data say something in the abstract, in the macro, about going for 2, going for 6, going for it on 4th down, but what do the real life events of that game, the micro, counsel? There are relevant variables there as well - e.g., your team's defence has been playing lights out.