Sabres Sign Tage Thompson to a 7 year 50 Million Dollar Contract Extension

[nfreeman]

I think Granato and the move to C were big factors in TT’s development, as were his natural development and growing into his body.  
 

One under-discussed factor IMHO was simply him shooting more, shooting more quickly once he gets it, and shooting more wrist shots instead of trying to tee up the slapper each time.  I recall DG at some point discussing that shooting more and shooting more quickly than were points he had emphasized to TT.

He’s always had the slapper, but last season TT showed a world-class wrister that he can get off quickly and put anywhere he wants with velocity.

I think he’s going to keep scoring in bushels.

 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Agree with this post except for the bolded.  His scoring touch went to jack squat for the Blues and the Sabres over on the wing.  He scored in Ra-cha-cha but he wasn't playing against much NHL caliber talent and very few NHL caliber goalies.

Still believe his biggest issue at wing was he was thinking the game too much and those split seconds of hesitation make a world of difference at this level.  Believe the 2nd biggest issue is playing near the boards consistently removed a big portion of his play developing repertoire as his reach was not only negated on one side it was actually a detriment as he couldn't maneuver as deftly as a smaller man on that side either due to the distance from hands to stick blade.

Both of those issues go away at C (especially when he doesn't engage at the boards all that much in the offensive zone, he battles for pucks but typically more in the middle of the ice IMHO).  Would like to believe Granato would've figured that out even without having coached him at C earlier in his career, but even if their knowing each other in the past was merely serendipity, he believed Thompson could be a C at this level even when Tage himself didn't.  (Hope he gives Donny a nice Christmas present this year (well next year when he actually starts getting paid from that new contract), because that vision & belief set Tage & his family up for life.)

As you stated there is no doubt that Tage thrived as you stated when the coach moved him to center. And there is another reason that TT took off as a goal scorer because of the tutelage of the perceptive coach as he explained on WGR: He encouraged Tage to get off his shot more quickly and not be so obsessed with getting off a perfect shot. The coach pointed out that because of his quick laser shot he could let loose more quickly with it and still score a goal without waiting for a perfect opportunity. 

Just think about what the value is of this current coach from a value and cap standpoint. He took a $9 M player in Skinner who was buried by the previous coach and became an albatross on this team under him. He went from being less than a $1 M player and made him a $7 M and maybe plus player. That's a tremendous increase in value for a locked in asset. The same dramatic increase in value incurred with Dahlin and Tage. The obvious point is that coaching matters!

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Cascade Youth said:

I appreciate what you're saying but it's not nearly that simple.  Often, a non-core poster makes a point and it's completely ignored, and then a few posts later the same point is made by a core poster and it's engaged with, promoted, etc.  Whom should I report for that kind of thing?  It basically happened in this thread - one poster is responded to with, in essence, "Shut up you troll," despite the fact that several other core posters made the same or similar points later on in this thread, without the vitriolic response.  Only part of that can be explained by the differences in presentation.

I get that this is a community, folks have longstanding relationships, many of you attend each others' backyard barbecues, etc.  That's great.  But more of a balance between a closed community and a welcoming forum would be appreciated by this poster in particular.

In this case, the poster who got “chastised” isn’t an unwelcome newcomer though.  Buffanil posts here just about as much as anyone and has for quite a while.  He get flack, not because he is new, but for being consistently negative, rightly or wrongly.

[Curt]

59 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

oVErPayDz

I'll say this... here's a guy who's never played a full NHL season, who had a career high shooting % at an unsustainable +15% last season.    If he regresses back to his career average of 10% he'll score 25 goals (based on his shot total last year).    

His 40% FOW% lasts season ranks 209th for all forwards who took at least 100 faceoffs.    For a guy with freakish length you'd expect him to dominate the faceoff circle, rather he's the one getting dominated.

A career minus player (-57) he was a -17 last season, putting him in the bottom half of the lineup for TRPM (-3).     

So we have a 25 goal scoring center, who can't win a faceoff, and regularly gets scored on making $7m/yr.    

I don’t get why people keep saying that Thompson’s shooting percentage is unsustainably high at 15.0%.

 In the 2021-22 season there were 59 NHL players who scored 20+ goals and had a shooting % of 15 or higher.  It’s not a number that’s only achievable by the 4-5 top goal scorers in the league.

[LabattBlue]

I watched so little of the Sabres in 21-22, that I am not even sure I should comment on this signing. 
 

I guess I will just…🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Curt said:

I don’t get why people keep saying that Thompson’s shooting percentage is unsustainably high at 15.0%.

 In the 2021-22 season there were 59 NHL players who scored 20+ goals and had a shooting % of 15 or higher.  It’s not a number that’s only achievable by the 4-5 top goal scorers in the league.

How many of them were at 15% for multiple seasons is the question 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

oVErPayDz

I'll say this... here's a guy who's never played a full NHL season, who had a career high shooting % at an unsustainable +15% last season.    If he regresses back to his career average of 10% he'll score 25 goals (based on his shot total last year).    

His 40% FOW% lasts season ranks 209th for all forwards who took at least 100 faceoffs.    For a guy with freakish length you'd expect him to dominate the faceoff circle, rather he's the one getting dominated.

A career minus player (-57) he was a -17 last season, putting him in the bottom half of the lineup for TRPM (-3).     

So we have a 25 goal scoring center, who can't win a faceoff, and regularly gets scored on making $7m/yr. 

Lol faceoffs on a 1st time center is your breaking point. 

And you got his career sh% wrong. I already covered that. 

Edited August 31, 2022 by LGR4GM

[Zamboni]

Funny how some “fans” are thoroughly convinced they know better than a team of analytic nerds who make a great living doing it when it comes to player evaluation and contract worth. 😂

 

[Curt]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

How many of them were at 15% for multiple seasons is the question 

I may actually attempt this when I get some time.

But for me the hang isn’t really strictly at 15%.  The real question for me is how many of the experienced a dramatic drop/increase from one year to the next?

If Tage shoots 13.7% next season, I’m not going to be concerned.  If he has a dramatic drop to 10.3% or something like that, then I  may be concerned.  So I might look to see how many of those 58 guys who shot 15%+, had shot less than 12% the season before.

[JohnC]

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/authors/howard-and-jeremy-show

Within this link is a 20 minute interview of Don G on the Howard and Jeremy Show. Much of this interview deals with Tage, his game and his characteristics. This interview highlights the coach's ability to analyze a player's game and his personality. What is so impressive about the coach is that he understands the uniqueness of each player and has an ability to adjust to different players to bring the best out of them. Don Granato's strength as a coach doesn't revolve around systems as it does around the psychology of the game and players. The GM has made a number of transactions. His most consequential is hiring Don Granato to lead his team. 

 

[Scottysabres]

6 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

I watched so little of the Sabres in 21-22, that I am not even sure I should comment on this signing. 
 

I guess I will just…🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻

We'll start at the beginning....

 

[RochesterExpat]

7 hours ago, pi2000 said:

His 40% FOW% lasts season ranks 209th for all forwards who took at least 100 faceoffs.    For a guy with freakish length you'd expect him to dominate the faceoff circle, rather he's the one getting dominated.

Since this was TT's first season at center, I'd like to remind everyone Sidney Crosby's first NHL season at center he was 45%. It's unfortunate that this is a skill which can't be taught or practiced as Crosby's struggles in the faceoff circle for the subsequent 16 seasons is thoroughly documented... right?

Of all the criticisms about his contract this is far and away the least valid. It's something he can improve on and I'm sure the coaching staff is well aware of. He has shown he is willing to put in the effort to improve his game. I am confident he will improve in the circle as well.

[MattPie]

56 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

We'll start at the beginning....

 

What do you make of this?

[Zamboni]

1 hour ago, RochesterExpat said:

Since this was TT's first season at center, I'd like to remind everyone Sidney Crosby's first NHL season at center he was 45%. It's unfortunate that this is a skill which can't be taught or practiced as Crosby's struggles in the faceoff circle for the subsequent 16 seasons is thoroughly documented... right?

Of all the criticisms about his contract this is far and away the least valid. It's something he can improve on and I'm sure the coaching staff is well aware of. He has shown he is willing to put in the effort to improve his game. I am confident he will improve in the circle as well.

Get used to some people dying on hills of invalid, incomplete or strawman arguments regarding TNT throughout his entire career now.

[MISabresFan]

9 hours ago, Scottysabres said:

We'll start at the beginning....

 

Well, this is an example for the rest of the team.  Play like Tage and get paid like Tage. 

[Pimlach]

20 hours ago, dudacek said:

Quoted because it didn’t get enough attention during the year and isn’t getting enough now.

This kid got crushed by the internet for getting traded for O’Reilly, he wrecked his shoulder knocking him out for an entire season, he nursed his now-wife through cancer, and he got shunted to the taxi squad after 4 periods by Ralph Krueger.

He kept his mouth shut, built his toothpick frame into a 220 pound powerhouse, earned his way on to the first line with his play, and has fully embraced Buffalo and the Sabres.

He’s conducted himself exactly like we want a player to conduct himself and he’s worked for everything he’s got.

100%.

This kid works on his craft, his conditioning, and he is a solid citizen.  The kind we want.  

I think he is a solid 30+ goal scorer (includes several years at 40+).

He needs to work on faceoffs - don't be surprised if he hasn't spent countless hours on that already. 

[LTS]

14 hours ago, Zamboni said:

Funny how some “fans” are thoroughly convinced they know better than a team of analytic nerds who make a great living doing it when it comes to player evaluation and contract worth. 😂

 

That's the Internet of today. Everyone questions the experts, because everyone is an expert. They read something on the Internet that made them so. Poor Holiday In Express, undermined by the Internet.

But,there are plenty of fans who can play in the space. I mean, fans second guess coaching, they believe they know all locker room intricacies, etc. It's the nature of fans I suppose.. or at least a significant subset of them.

[mjd1001]

By the midpoint of his contact, the NHL cap should be/probably will be about $90+ million per team. (Seravalli had an article about this a little while ago).  If we assume that will be true, the 'midpoint' of his contract he would be making about 7.9%-8% of the cap.

Unless he totally flames out and last year was a total mirage, that is actually a pretty good number for him.

If he continues to perform as a consistent 30+ goal scorer, this will be a great deal for the Sabres.

If he regresses in terms of production slightly and becomes a consistent 20-25 goal scorer, it will be an "ok" or "fair' contract going forward with regard to percentage of the cap.

If he regresses so badly that he is consistently under 20 goals, that is where Adams job may be on the line for a deal like this (providing he makes a few other mistakes going forward also).

 

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by mjd1001

[Taro T]

14 hours ago, Zamboni said:

Funny how some “fans” are thoroughly convinced they know better than a team of analytic nerds who make a great living doing it when it comes to player evaluation and contract worth. 😂

 

 

18 minutes ago, LTS said:

That's the Internet of today. Everyone questions the experts, because everyone is an expert. They read something on the Internet that made them so. Poor Holiday In Express, undermined by the Internet.

But,there are plenty of fans who can play in the space. I mean, fans second guess coaching, they believe they know all locker room intricacies, etc. It's the nature of fans I suppose.. or at least a significant subset of them.

 

True.  And it does look like the front office does have it's act together.  Again, here's to hoping that's the case.  🍺

But, playing devil's advocate, just because guys are paid doesn't mean they should be.  There are some Bills fans that would've waaaaaay outperformed the Bills scouts & GMs at the draft for most of that 17 year playoff free run. 

Don't necessarily discount the fanatical hobbyist as just out of touch.  (It's usually the safe play, but not always.  😉 )

 

[LTS]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

 

 

True.  And it does look like the front office does have it's act together.  Again, here's to hoping that's the case.  🍺

But, playing devil's advocate, just because guys are paid doesn't mean they should be.  There are some Bills fans that would've waaaaaay outperformed the Bills scouts & GMs at the draft for most of that 17 year playoff free run. 

Fair, but the question also remains. Would those fans have still felt the same if they had access to the same information the front office and scouts did? If they were immersed into the event itself so that they had a seat at the table it's quite possible they might have chosen differently or have been influenced to have chosen differently based on conversations/directives (not saying directives happened, just allowing for the possibility).

Thus the real inability to completely analyze that DIY GMs and Scouts are more effective.

[Pimlach]

18 hours ago, pi2000 said:

oVErPayDz

I'll say this... here's a guy who's never played a full NHL season, who had a career high shooting % at an unsustainable +15% last season.    If he regresses back to his career average of 10% he'll score 25 goals (based on his shot total last year).    

His 40% FOW% lasts season ranks 209th for all forwards who took at least 100 faceoffs.    For a guy with freakish length you'd expect him to dominate the faceoff circle, rather he's the one getting dominated.

A career minus player (-57) he was a -17 last season, putting him in the bottom half of the lineup for TRPM (-3).     

So we have a 25 goal scoring center, who can't win a faceoff, and regularly gets scored on making $7m/yr.    

 

Sure, there is some risk.   That is where you have to trust the FO to know the person, how he is wired, and how he competes.   I believe he is going to get better, not worse. 

Not sure if he can sustain 15% shooting, or even hit it again, but the rest of his game is just getting better and better.  He will get his goals.  

Lets see him on faceoffs this season, he has had one off season to work on it.   

As for a negative +/-, the same can be said for the entire team and any player that's been here for awhile.   

[Taro T]

18 minutes ago, LTS said:

Fair, but the question also remains. Would those fans have still felt the same if they had access to the same information the front office and scouts did? If they were immersed into the event itself so that they had a seat at the table it's quite possible they might have chosen differently or have been influenced to have chosen differently based on conversations/directives (not saying directives happened, just allowing for the possibility).

Thus the real inability to completely analyze that DIY GMs and Scouts are more effective.

Interesting question.  Which brings up another one.  If the team's personnel department is coming up with data & metrics which cause them to make worse decisions than those that don't have that info and would cause others that previously didn't have that data to make decisions just as poorly; wtf are they chasing that data in the 1st place?  The idea is to attenuate to useful data, not lose it in the chafe.  If your scenario is/was in fact the case, whomever chose the metrics to track should've found himself a resident in that Native American cemetery next to the stadium at worst or on the 1st bus to Jacksonville or Detroit or Flushing or wherever the NFL likes to reward its incompetents at a minimum.

But suspecting that there is no amount of info in the universe to make John McCargo nor Aaron Maybin a good selection.  😉

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by Taro T
F'n autocorrect. McCargo not McCarron.

[LTS]

23 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Interesting question.  Which brings up another one.  If the team's personnel department is coming up with data & metrics which cause them to make worse decisions than those that don't have that info and would cause others that previously didn't have that data to make decisions just as poorly; wtf are they chasing that data in the 1st place?  The idea is to attenuate to useful data, not lose it in the chafe.  If your scenario is/was in fact the case, whomever chose the metrics to track should've found himself a resident in that Native American cemetery next to the stadium at worst or on the 1st bus to Jacksonville or Detroit or Flushing or wherever the NFL likes to reward its incompetents at a minimum.

But suspecting that there is no amount of info in the universe to make John McCargo nor Aaron Maybin a good selection.  😉

 

You don't know data is bad until after you use it and then analyze the results. You don't your model is good until it is proven. Getting something right/wrong once doesn't constitute a pattern.

Decisions are made on the information and knowledge had at the time. They are judged on the information and knowledge gained after that fact. Claiming a decision was bad is easy. Claiming the person who made the decision was incapable of their job is a bit of a stretch without looking at why they made the decision and reasonably inferring they ignored non-debatable facts.

Of course a pattern of bad decisions is another story.

[dudacek]

Well, if history means anything, the chances of Thompson slipping back into being a career 20-goal scorer are pretty slim.

17 other Sabres have scored 35 or more goals in a single season. 15 of them hit 30 at least 4 times in their career.

• Mogilny: 8 30-goal seasons, 473 career goals
• Gare:: 8 25-goal seasons, 354 career goals
• Lafontaine: 9 30 goal seasons, 468 career goals
• Martin: 8 30 goal seasons, 384 career goals
• Perreault: 13 25-goal seasons, 512 career goals
• Vanek: 8 25 goal seasons, 383 career goals
• Andreychuk: 13 25 goal seasons, 640 career goals
• Foligno: 9 25 goal seasons, 468 career goals
• Turgeon: 9 30 goal seasons, 515 career goals
• Robert: 6 25 goal seasons, 284 career goals
• Satan: 9 25 goal seasons, 363 career goals
• Skinner: 7 24 goal seasons, 298 career goals
• Sheppard: 9 24 goal seasons, 357 career goals
• Drury: 5 23 goal seasons, 255 career goals
• McKegney: 9 23-goal seasons, 320 career goals
• Eichel: 5 24 goal seasons, 153 career goals
• Hawerchuk: 10 30 goal seasons, 518 career goals

The 2 that didn't/haven't were Eichel and Drury. Eichel is the only one without at least 250 career goals.

It seems that when a Sabre scores as well as Thompson did this year, he's likely to keep scoring.

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by dudacek

[French Collection]

I like the signing, they are locking up a guy they have seen every day, developing into what his a first rounder should be doing. He is entering his prime years on an improving team.

This is a way better use of cap space than getting a 29 year old UFA who just happened to have a career year.

Tage is making peanuts for what he contributed last year and he doesn’t seem like the type to quit improving now that he has guaranteed money.