Sabres Sign Tage Thompson to a 7 year 50 Million Dollar Contract Extension

[Sabres Fan in NS]

This is a very good contract for both parties.  It will be a bargain almost as soon as it kicks in.

I wanted a 5 x 5 or 6 x 6, but this is just as good ... actually better now that I am thinking about it and seeing what other contracts have been handed out this summer.

I think this buys 4 or 5 UFA years.  All his prime years.

The Sabres need a few players on good contracts when it comes time to sign the monster deals for Dahlin and then Power.

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Not old fashioned.  Risk averse.

Making risk averse decisions is safe.  But it never gives you the opportunity to have a player at a high value contract because you don’t offer the deal until both you and the players agent have a very concrete idea of value.  It also results in the team affording fewer impact players because you’ve waited until their contractual worth is at their highest before locking them in.

The reason TP is paying alot of money for a large analytics team is to make value decisions on obtaining players, and offering players contracts before their value had been fully set.

TT is the first big test of the analytics team IMO.

Nailed it.

If you want cost certainty or to see what the market price is, let him go to UFA and try and match or beat it to keep him.

[nfreeman]

3 hours ago, Cascade Youth said:

Man.  I don’t agree with his takes but he is NOT trolling.  He’s making arguments, maybe they’re bad ones, but it’s not incendiary drivel.  This place is tough for outsiders.  I get that there are about 20 of you “core” posters who are on here regularly but frankly it’s really not a friendly place for the rest of us.  The shunning that goes on here if you’re not a regular screen name - it’s frustrating and maybe warrants some self-reflection.  I dunno, maybe you all like it this way but as an outsider/lurker, the air is a bit stale in here - it’s basically the same posters making the same points in every thread - some of it is very insightful and that’s why I come back, but as I said it’s really not a welcoming place.  I really hope it doesn’t become an obscure sub-Reddit but there are days where it is trending that way.

I agree that he isn't trolling, although the presentation could certainly be improved.

The goal is, as always, for the board Certainly there are some here who don't always cover themselves in glory, but I don't agree that the board is unwelcoming or that the regulars shun newcomers.  There are quite a few posters who make a point of welcoming new members. 

The mods try to coax everyone into behaving in a friendly and respectful manner, but don't always succeed.  If anyone feels that a post has crossed the line, please report it.

 

3 hours ago, #freejame said:

Give it a winning season, things will get better. 

...and this will probably be the rising tide that lifts all boats.

[Weave]

7 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I agree that he isn't trolling, although the presentation could certainly be improved.

The goal is, as always, for the board Certainly there are some here who don't always cover themselves in glory, but I don't agree that the board is unwelcoming or that the regulars shun newcomers.  There are quite a few posters who make a point of welcoming new members. 

The mods try to coax everyone into behaving in a friendly and respectful manner, but don't always succeed.  If anyone feels that a post has crossed the line, please report it.

 

...and this will probably be the rising tide that lifts all boats.

You may not agree with the statement that the board is unwelcoming, but we’ve had many new or fairly infrequent posters mention it.  Your perspective isn’t the new guys perspective.  I think we all need to accept that we aren’t as welcoming as we think we are.

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Tage is strange because yes he just finished his 4th NHL season but... at 22 he was shipped back to the AHL by the Sabres because he needed to be. So you have the first 2 seasons of the NHL, then an AHL season, and these past 2 years. Let's break it down. 

2018 and 2019 saw Tage play 106 NHL games as a 20 and 21 year old. During those game he had 10 total goals and 163 shots. That's a 6.13sh% which isn't good at all. Let's look at context though. You have his rookie year in ST Louis and then his first season in Buffalo. He didn't have a ton of shots and was not getting a ton of TOI. 

Then we get Tage's 16 AHL games and 1NHL game in a shortened season where I believe he got injured. This we can set aside as it just breaks down the two halves of his career so far. 

2021 and 2022 we see Tage go from Krueger to Granato and from wing to center. Even in 2021 his sh% is already higher than the previous 2 NHL stints where he goes from a career 6.13% to 8.3% in 2021. These 2 seasons see Tage as a 23 and 24 year old (prime breakout time for most NHL players). The combined numbers are more interesting as Thompson has 46 goals on 349shots meaning in only 10 extra games he produced 186 more shots compared to the first 2 year sample. Her produced 90 more shots in 28 fewer games comparing 18/19 to just 2022. And now the all important sh% for 21 and 2022 seasons, 13.18% over those two years. Now the key for me here is that 13.18 isn't particularly outlandish and might be roughly sustainable +/- 3% or again 28-40goals depending on shot totals. 

In the end I think Tage probably will never hit 40 goals unless he shoots more (which is possible) but it is realistic to assume that his 11.6% career sh% is a sustainable number as it correlates to a steady improvement. Basically I think Tage is a 28-32 goal scorer for his prime and for 7.1mil, that seems good to me. We will certainly know after this year but the system change and position change couples with watching all 24 of his EV goals makes me think it is probably sustainable. If you view him as a 30goal scorer as opposed to 40, you should be rewarded. 

 

Let's compare this to Skinner. 

Jeff Skinner in his contract year shot at 14.9% and most of those were cleaning up rebounds and being around the home plate area because that's what jeff does. His career sh% now (because Im not figuring out back then) is 10.7% and if we apply that to his 40goal season that gives him... we get about 28.7 goals which if you look at this year where he had 33, you're right there within a standard deviation of who he is as a scorer. If the Sabres had paid attention or held firm on these things, Skinner probably is making 7.5mil and maybe gets 6 years due to his age, but that's not the world we live in. 

[msw2112]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Tage would have 29goals if he had the exact same number of shots this upcoming season and shot his career sh% of 11.6

This is a good statistic to cite for this thread.  In light of this statistic, I have two comments, both of which favor the contract extension:

1.  If Tage ends up producing 29 goals per season for the rest of his career, this will be a fair contract.  There are not too many guys in the league who can consistently score at that level.  The way that salaries continue to escalate, I'd argue that a 30-goal scorer is a $7M player.  So his goal scoring production could dip from last season and this would still be a fair deal.

2.  If his career shooting percentage is 11.6% to date, I suspect it will get better than that.  In his first few seasons, he was playing a) further down in the lineup, b) for a different (and much less effective) coach, and c) at a younger age, when his physical and mental game were not yet ready for full-time NHL duty.  Even if last season's percentage was on the high side, I would argue that his percentage prior to that was on the low side.

Aside from Thompson's production, this contract was a good one for the team culture.  They are betting on a guy who they acquired at a young age, who worked his way up the lineup, has committed to the team/coach/system/culture, and now has produced.  It sets the tone for other guys to do the same.

[Scottysabres]

1 of the players who played like they gave a *****.....

Good player, lots of heart....

Good signing, we'll done Kyven, we'll done

[tom webster]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Is gambling revenue part of league revenue? I would assume it is but we know expansion money isn't so I always wonder what counts. 

Try as they might, they’d have a lot of trouble allowing for betting on player data while arguing it isn’t hockey related revenue.

[Taro T]

14 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

Pastrnak’s showed signs of a  quality NHL player when he made the team at age 18 .

Tage was a horrible nhl player for 4 years and all of a sudden 1 good year.

How some aren't worred is mind blowing 

 

 

And what happens if he goes back to the old tage ? 

Buffalo should have Waited at least 2 months into the season to see whats up first .

 

 

Management talks about character and wanting people that want to be here.  If they don't reward players that live up to those values that also demonstrate success on the ice, then they undermine the culture they are trying to build.  

They want players to have faith in management.  Well, trust is a 2 way street.  By inking this deal, they also are demonstrating faith in a player that has done everything asked of him.  They're saying, yes, we believe in you Tage.  Players notice that.  That helps build the room and make the players believe they are a "family" even though they all know this is a business.

Even if he takes a step back, doubt he steps so far back he isn't still playing at a 2C level.  That's what this contract pays him as.  If you don't bet on any of your players before they fully establish themselves, you never get value contracts.

Would've preferred a 6 year deal.  But the money works, and they'll be able to get away from that last year if absolutely necessary.  Doubt it will be.

[dudacek]

17 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

1 of the players who played like they gave a *****.....

Good player, lots of heart....

Quoted because it didn’t get enough attention during the year and isn’t getting enough now.

This kid got crushed by the internet for getting traded for O’Reilly, he wrecked his shoulder knocking him out for an entire season, he nursed his now-wife through cancer, and he got shunted to the taxi squad after 4 periods by Ralph Krueger.

He kept his mouth shut, built his toothpick frame into a 220 pound powerhouse, earned his way on to the first line with his play, and has fully embraced Buffalo and the Sabres.

He’s conducted himself exactly like we want a player to conduct himself and he’s worked for everything he’s got.

Edited August 31, 2022 by dudacek

[That Aud Smell]

2 hours ago, Weave said:

But it never gives you the opportunity to have a player at a high value contract because you don’t offer the deal until both you and the players agent have a very concrete idea of value.  It also results in the team affording fewer impact players because you’ve waited until their contractual worth is at their highest before locking them in.

31 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

2.  If his career shooting percentage is 11.6% to date, I suspect it will get better than that.  In his first few seasons, he was playing a) further down in the lineup, b) for a different (and much less effective) coach, and c) at a younger age, when his physical and mental game were not yet ready for full-time NHL duty.  Even if last season's percentage was on the high side, I would argue that his percentage prior to that was on the low side.

Good observation(s).

[Cascade Youth]

50 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I agree that he isn't trolling, although the presentation could certainly be improved.

The goal is, as always, for the board Certainly there are some here who don't always cover themselves in glory, but I don't agree that the board is unwelcoming or that the regulars shun newcomers.  There are quite a few posters who make a point of welcoming new members. 

The mods try to coax everyone into behaving in a friendly and respectful manner, but don't always succeed.  If anyone feels that a post has crossed the line, please report it.

 

...and this will probably be the rising tide that lifts all boats.

I appreciate what you're saying but it's not nearly that simple.  Often, a non-core poster makes a point and it's completely ignored, and then a few posts later the same point is made by a core poster and it's engaged with, promoted, etc.  Whom should I report for that kind of thing?  It basically happened in this thread - one poster is responded to with, in essence, "Shut up you troll," despite the fact that several other core posters made the same or similar points later on in this thread, without the vitriolic response.  Only part of that can be explained by the differences in presentation.

I get that this is a community, folks have longstanding relationships, many of you attend each others' backyard barbecues, etc.  That's great.  But more of a balance between a closed community and a welcoming forum would be appreciated by this poster in particular.

[#freejame]

44 minutes ago, Weave said:

You may not agree with the statement that the board is unwelcoming, but we’ve had many new or fairly infrequent posters mention it.  Your perspective isn’t the new guys perspective.  I think we all need to accept that we aren’t as welcoming as we think we are.

I think the biggest thing is people tend to get overlooked pretty easily when starting off and most of that comes because of the volume of posting done by our main members. It’s really one of those things where the more you post, the more interaction you will have.
 

To an extent, you’ve gotta want to be involved in the conversation as well. I know when I started posting if I didn’t have anyone continue the conversation I’d get dejected. Now when I feel like posting something I just shoot it out and who cares. 

I would imagine the overwhelming majority were not on the board prior to 2010. This will be a completely different place when we are winning. Hell, we’re still only at maybe 50% of our “core” posters and then I know there’s a lot of people around my level that are posting significantly less (myself included).  

[Taro T]

5 hours ago, NJhopelessSabresfan66 said:

I have always like TT. I think expectations of him were too high and he was not ready when we first got him. He matured and took his lumps and he can possibly be a seriously good diamond in the rough after most thought he was going to be a career AHLer or maybe a 3rd line NHLer. His scoring touch has always been there and maybe moving him to center opened up for everything to really connect with him. A bit nervous about the extension after one good year but i believe we will see more of his last year performance and be happy with this contract in the end. Happy  he is going to be a Sabres for a long time. 

Agree with this post except for the bolded.  His scoring touch went to jack squat for the Blues and the Sabres over on the wing.  He scored in Ra-cha-cha but he wasn't playing against much NHL caliber talent and very few NHL caliber goalies.

Still believe his biggest issue at wing was he was thinking the game too much and those split seconds of hesitation make a world of difference at this level.  Believe the 2nd biggest issue is playing near the boards consistently removed a big portion of his play developing repertoire as his reach was not only negated on one side it was actually a detriment as he couldn't maneuver as deftly as a smaller man on that side either due to the distance from hands to stick blade.

Both of those issues go away at C (especially when he doesn't engage at the boards all that much in the offensive zone, he battles for pucks but typically more in the middle of the ice IMHO).  Would like to believe Granato would've figured that out even without having coached him at C earlier in his career, but even if their knowing each other in the past was merely serendipity, he believed Thompson could be a C at this level even when Tage himself didn't.  (Hope he gives Donny a nice Christmas present this year (well next year when he actually starts getting paid from that new contract), because that vision & belief set Tage & his family up for life.)

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

 Honestly if he did that would anyone be upset at 10m ? That would  Mean  We'd have a player close to Austin Matthews

I would rather take a chance of tage repeating or being greater then having the risk of being a player that pots 15-20 goals for 40 points at 7m

 

 

Yes.  Because had they signed him before the season, they could've had him for just over $7MM/ season.

That extra $3MM/yr might be the difference in being able to give Samuelsson what he's actually worth (points be d*mned?) and , this guy will be McKee and if we squint real hard MAYBE, POSSIBLY, dare we say Ramsey?) and keeping Jokiharju in the fold.

We get it.  It's a risk.  But it's a calculated risk & worth taking IMHO.)

[That Aud Smell]

26 minutes ago, Cascade Youth said:

It basically happened in this thread - one poster is responded to with, in essence, "Shut up you troll," despite the fact that several other core posters made the same or similar points later on in this thread, without the vitriolic response.  Only part of that can be explained by the differences in presentation.

Since, AFAIK, I'm the only poster with whom you've interacted on this thread on the topic of trolling, I infer you're talking about me. So I want to add for clarification: I don't see the content of posters I've blocked (and, when I see it quoted, I try not to read it). 

[tom webster]

3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Yes.  Because had they signed him before the season, they could've had him for just over $7MM/ season.

That extra $3MM/yr might be the difference in being able to give Samuelsson what he's actually worth (points be d*mned?) and , this guy will be McKee and if we squint real hard MAYBE, POSSIBLY, dare we say Ramsey?) and keeping Jokiharju in the fold.

We get it.  It's a risk.  But it's a calculated risk & worth taking IMHO.)

Is your opinion really that “humble?”

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

can i get quick reminder on why this is? thanks.

He's probably a year early in his estimate, but the players will have paid the owners back their share of HRR they let the players keep in excess of 50% they ended up with when the world shutdown.  That repaying of those monies is why the cap has been flat / only increasing $1MM / year lately.

Will likely be '24-'25 when they're finally back to normal.  But next year is possible.

[That Aud Smell]

30 minutes ago, Cascade Youth said:

I appreciate what you're saying but it's not nearly that simple.  Often, a non-core poster makes a point and it's completely ignored, and then a few posts later the same point is made by a core poster and it's engaged with, promoted, etc.  Whom should I report for that kind of thing?

Should such an occurrence be reportable? Reported?

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Quoted because it didn’t get enough attention during the year and isn’t getting enough now.

This kid got crushed by the internet for getting traded for O’Reilly, he wrecked his shoulder knocking him out for an entire season, he nursed his now-wife through cancer, and he got shunted to the taxi squad after 4 periods by Ralph Krueger.

He kept his mouth shut, built his toothpick frame into a 220 pound powerhouse, earned his way on to the first line with his play, and has fully embraced Buffalo and the Sabres.

He’s conducted himself exactly like we want a player to conduct himself and he’s worked for everything he’s got.

Never really thought about it but you never hear Tage complain about anything. 

Also Krueger sucks. 

[LTS]

57 minutes ago, Cascade Youth said:

I appreciate what you're saying but it's not nearly that simple.  Often, a non-core poster makes a point and it's completely ignored, and then a few posts later the same point is made by a core poster and it's engaged with, promoted, etc.  Whom should I report for that kind of thing?  It basically happened in this thread - one poster is responded to with, in essence, "Shut up you troll," despite the fact that several other core posters made the same or similar points later on in this thread, without the vitriolic response.  Only part of that can be explained by the differences in presentation.

I get that this is a community, folks have longstanding relationships, many of you attend each others' backyard barbecues, etc.  That's great.  But more of a balance between a closed community and a welcoming forum would be appreciated by this poster in particular.

I took a year off and since coming back said poster has been negative in many threads. Often the posts appear as being contrarian as a matter of principle. The poster also has chosen an avatar that projects that same persona. Red was a no nonsense, crotchety father who often quickly escalated to the term "dumbass". If the vast majority of responses in threads by any particular poster trend towards contrarian then it would be natural to expect people to begin dismissing and downright ignoring that person.

Differing viewpoints are often accepted, but not just because they are different, but in how they are presented. I think the board welcomes a wide variety of opinions, what it tends to not tolerate are those who don't further the conversation on the topic and demonstrate an unwillingness to consider the different viewpoints being presented against their position.

Finally, I think it's just human nature that when you show up to the club you aren't immediately embraced as a long term member. I think some expect that it should not be the case and then fault others for not conforming to their expectations. That said, the Internet era has degraded our ability to engage in conversation. Even on a forum, where communication is not buried in a timeline nor subjected to character limits, people tend to opt for that style of communication. I suspect both because they have become accustomed to writing in short hand and their intended recipients have become big fans of TL;DR.

 

[pi2000]

oVErPayDz

I'll say this... here's a guy who's never played a full NHL season, who had a career high shooting % at an unsustainable +15% last season.    If he regresses back to his career average of 10% he'll score 25 goals (based on his shot total last year).    

His 40% FOW% lasts season ranks 209th for all forwards who took at least 100 faceoffs.    For a guy with freakish length you'd expect him to dominate the faceoff circle, rather he's the one getting dominated.

A career minus player (-57) he was a -17 last season, putting him in the bottom half of the lineup for TRPM (-3).     

So we have a 25 goal scoring center, who can't win a faceoff, and regularly gets scored on making $7m/yr.    

 

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

The NHL basically set the cap the last 2 years to 0 gain because of escrow. The NHL players pay escrow on their contracts so at the end of the season when league revenue gets calculated the owners are paid what they should and the players get back any overpayments. With the pandemic destroying league revenue, the league basically artificially left the cap alone so the players didn't get screwed by having huge escrow payments but could pay it back over a couple of seasons. In 2017 Vegas came into the league and in 2021 Seattle. That gives you an additional 2 revenue streams plus the deal with ESPN so after this year, the escrow should be balanced from the 2 down years and the regular cap increase can begin again. 

That is my understanding of what happened at least. I could be wrong but we had a flat cap to keep players salaries steady while the owners got back the money they were owed on a 50/50 split of league revenue. 

You have the idea right, but the mechanics are off a tad.  Some clarifications below.

When the end of the '19-'20 season was effectively canceled and much of '20-'21 was played in front of no crowds, HRR plummeted.  The CBA is set up to give owners and players an exact 50-50 split of those revenues after all receipts have been audited.  The players do put some of their salary into escrow (IIRC ~5%, maybe 10% and the actual value is revised a couple of times in season during normal years based on estimates of actual to date revenues) which is held until the final auditing, but there was nowhere near enough money in escrow to cover the actual revenue drop.  Had they kept the 50-50 split for '19-'20, players would've been forced to cough up huge portions of money that was already in their pockets at a time when nobody knew if they'd even be able to earn any money the next year.  Forcing the players to keep their end of returning the excess over their alloted 50% would've quite possibly destroyed the league.

The players and management worked out a system where they'd be overpaid for that previous season & the likely upcoming one.  But they would repay that money over the next few seasons.  And that's the biggest part of the MOU tacked onto the previous CBA - how to make finances work in the locked down world.  (The MOU still to this day hasn't been finalized into a true revised CBA, doubt it ever will either.)

The cap was left essentially (actually?) unchanged for '20-'21 rather than get adjusted to reflect anticipated actual revenues because many teams would've been forced to buy out players to get under what the cap should've been under the previously agreed formula.  The cap is set to get player costs to roughly 50% of anticipated HRR and avoid the players from owing too much of their escrow at the end of the year.   The league & players agreed that the players would likely be overpaid again that year (getting over 50% HRR) and that in future years they'd be underpaid with the excess they should've/ would be actually paid being used to repay the owners the monies they forewent in '20 & '21.

We're currently in those underpaid years and when they're through with the repayments, the cap will grow significantly as it will include a few year's worth of HRR growth.

1 additional point for those not familiar w/ the details of the CBA.  Players don't ever receive exactly what their contract says they will because players split a set pie (whether it be 50% of HRR or what's called for in the MOU) amongst themselves and if the total face value of all contracts counting towards all teams' caps is less than that target they all get the same percentage increase over the face value of their contracts and if they all combined would've earned more than that number they all take the same percentage cut to their earnings. 

And 1 final point, while Vegas & Seattle did increase total HRR (more games, more concessions, more merchandise, & 2 more local TV deals) they also added 46+ more players to split the players 50% share of HRR so expansion didn't/ won't increase the cap as much as 1 might expect at 1st blush.  And the owners don't share expansion fees with the players because those expansion fees in theory cover the existing owners reduction from 1/30th to 1/32nd of leaguewide shared revenues (national TV contracts, NHL.com revenues, leaguewide sponsorships, international tournaments, etc.).  That's what they told the players and the players bought it, so that's the official position.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, Cascade Youth said:

I appreciate what you're saying but it's not nearly that simple.  Often, a non-core poster makes a point and it's completely ignored, and then a few posts later the same point is made by a core poster and it's engaged with, promoted, etc.  Whom should I report for that kind of thing?  It basically happened in this thread - one poster is responded to with, in essence, "Shut up you troll," despite the fact that several other core posters made the same or similar points later on in this thread, without the vitriolic response.  Only part of that can be explained by the differences in presentation.

I get that this is a community, folks have longstanding relationships, many of you attend each others' backyard barbecues, etc.  That's great.  But more of a balance between a closed community and a welcoming forum would be appreciated by this poster in particular.

 

31 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Should such an occurrence be reportable? Reported?

I think the question about reportability was rhetorical.

In any case, I can understand why not responding to new poster A but responding to longtime poster B, even though the 2 of them have made the same point, can feel off-putting to poster A.  I don’t think that most here intend to snub poster A when this happens, but I take the point and would encourage everyone to respond to poster A as well as poster B.  

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Cascade Youth said:

I appreciate what you're saying but it's not nearly that simple.  Often, a non-core poster makes a point and it's completely ignored, and then a few posts later the same point is made by a core poster and it's engaged with, promoted, etc.  Whom should I report for that kind of thing?  It basically happened in this thread - one poster is responded to with, in essence, "Shut up you troll," despite the fact that several other core posters made the same or similar points later on in this thread, without the vitriolic response.  Only part of that can be explained by the differences in presentation.

I get that this is a community, folks have longstanding relationships, many of you attend each others' backyard barbecues, etc.  That's great.  But more of a balance between a closed community and a welcoming forum would be appreciated by this poster in particular.

Will try to take your comments to heart, but did want to speak to the bolded directly.

Believe you are correct that the bolded behavior happens.   But it happens to pretty much everybody regardless of tenure.  A thought gets expressed and not really noted and then after the 5th or 6th mention of it, somebody actually notices it and responds back to it and that response is what actually draws the attention to that thought, not that post to which the respondent is responding.  MHO.  YMMV.

So, would suggest that if you feel you've said something noteworthy that we should react to, try saying it again in a slightly different way.  (Not suggesting going on a crusade, but maybe the point simply didn't resonate and coming at it from a different place might get it to do so.)

Thank you for bringing it up.  It's good to get the perspective of those that are new/newish here.  Though a place populated by PA, 11, Inky and the rest can't by definition be an echo chamber; there is a certain familiarity that is bred.  Good to get reminded of that on occassion.