Sabres Sign Tage Thompson to a 7 year 50 Million Dollar Contract Extension

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Tage would have 29goals if he had the exact same number of shots this upcoming season and shot his career sh% of 11.6

Thanks for this. Puts the shooting percentage discussion in perspective.

[Pimlach]

10 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

You honestly think the price  would change that much ?

I dont 

I think if he has another strong season it goes up to the $8M to $8.5M range.  

[That Aud Smell]

29 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That said if he is going to drop 50-60pts every year, that's the going rate today and it will not be the going rate in 2023 when the cap finally starts going up again. 

can i get quick reminder on why this is? thanks.

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Thanks for this. Puts the shooting percentage discussion in perspective.

Tage is strange because yes he just finished his 4th NHL season but... at 22 he was shipped back to the AHL by the Sabres because he needed to be. So you have the first 2 seasons of the NHL, then an AHL season, and these past 2 years. Let's break it down. 

2018 and 2019 saw Tage play 106 NHL games as a 20 and 21 year old. During those game he had 10 total goals and 163 shots. That's a 6.13sh% which isn't good at all. Let's look at context though. You have his rookie year in ST Louis and then his first season in Buffalo. He didn't have a ton of shots and was not getting a ton of TOI. 

Then we get Tage's 16 AHL games and 1NHL game in a shortened season where I believe he got injured. This we can set aside as it just breaks down the two halves of his career so far. 

2021 and 2022 we see Tage go from Krueger to Granato and from wing to center. Even in 2021 his sh% is already higher than the previous 2 NHL stints where he goes from a career 6.13% to 8.3% in 2021. These 2 seasons see Tage as a 23 and 24 year old (prime breakout time for most NHL players). The combined numbers are more interesting as Thompson has 46 goals on 349shots meaning in only 10 extra games he produced 186 more shots compared to the first 2 year sample. Her produced 90 more shots in 28 fewer games comparing 18/19 to just 2022. And now the all important sh% for 21 and 2022 seasons, 13.18% over those two years. Now the key for me here is that 13.18 isn't particularly outlandish and might be roughly sustainable +/- 3% or again 28-40goals depending on shot totals. 

In the end I think Tage probably will never hit 40 goals unless he shoots more (which is possible) but it is realistic to assume that his 11.6% career sh% is a sustainable number as it correlates to a steady improvement. Basically I think Tage is a 28-32 goal scorer for his prime and for 7.1mil, that seems good to me. We will certainly know after this year but the system change and position change couples with watching all 24 of his EV goals makes me think it is probably sustainable. If you view him as a 30goal scorer as opposed to 40, you should be rewarded. 

 

[Curt]

21 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Yeah but im putting in perspective if it was Casey instead of tage for the  career year.

 

btw I would  Expect people to say that for next year beacuse of tage 

You asked a question.  I only answered it.

If Tage can score 25-30 goals and 50-60 points per season for the life of this contract, it will be worth it.  Anything above that will be surplus value.

Same thing holds true for Mittelstadt next season.

 

28 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

 Honestly if he did that would anyone be upset at 10m ? That would  Mean  We'd have a player close to Austin Matthews

I would rather take a chance of tage repeating or being greater then having the risk of being a player that pots 15-20 goals for 40 points at 7m

If Tage went wild next season and Sabres signed him for 10m per, I’d be unhappy (with the deal, not the player) because they could have signed him for $3m less a few months earlier.

The same risk would apply at that time.  You could end up paying 10m for a 60-65 point guy.  He would have only produced at a 10m level for half a season.  He wouldn’t have proven that he could sustain that level.  This risk exists in almost any long term deal.

[LGR4GM]

34 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

can i get quick reminder on why this is? thanks.

The NHL basically set the cap the last 2 years to 0 gain because of escrow. The NHL players pay escrow on their contracts so at the end of the season when league revenue gets calculated the owners are paid what they should and the players get back any overpayments. With the pandemic destroying league revenue, the league basically artificially left the cap alone so the players didn't get screwed by having huge escrow payments but could pay it back over a couple of seasons. In 2017 Vegas came into the league and in 2021 Seattle. That gives you an additional 2 revenue streams plus the deal with ESPN so after this year, the escrow should be balanced from the 2 down years and the regular cap increase can begin again. 

That is my understanding of what happened at least. I could be wrong but we had a flat cap to keep players salaries steady while the owners got back the money they were owed on a 50/50 split of league revenue. 

Edited August 31, 2022 by LGR4GM

[tom webster]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The NHL basically set the cap the last 2 years to 0 gain because of escrow. The NHL players pay escrow on their contracts so at the end of the season when league revenue gets calculated the owners are paid what they should and the players get back any overpayments. With the pandemic destroying league revenue, the league basically artificially left the cap alone so the players didn't get screwed by having huge escrow payments but could pay it back over a couple of seasons. In 2017 Vegas came into the league and in 2021 Seattle. That gives you an additional 2 revenue streams plus the deal with ESPN so after this year, the escrow should be balanced from the 2 down years and the regular cap increase can begin again. 

That is my understanding of what happened at least. I could be wrong but we had a flat cap to keep players salaries steady while the owners got back the money they were owed on a 50/50 split of league revenue. 

It won’t be a regular cap increase. Barring anything catastrophic, it will be an explosion. Players signing long term deals who produce long term will regret signing them.

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, tom webster said:

It won’t be a regular cap increase. Barring anything catastrophic, it will be an explosion. Players signing long term deals who produce long term will regret signing them.

Right because they have last years full revenue increase plus this years plus the inclusion of Seattle which hasn't been included. We're probably looking at the cap going from 82.5 to something like 87.5 or maybe 90mil. 

[tom webster]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Right because they have last years full revenue increase plus this years plus the inclusion of Seattle which hasn't been included. We're probably looking at the cap going from 82.5 to something like 87.5 or maybe 90mil. 

I will bet within five years it hits $100M. Gambling revenue alone may push it that high.

[LGR4GM]

16 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I will bet within five years it hits $100M. Gambling revenue alone may push it that high.

Is gambling revenue part of league revenue? I would assume it is but we know expansion money isn't so I always wonder what counts. 

[MattPie]

30 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

2021 and 2022 we see Tage go from Krueger to Granato and from wing to center. Even in 2021 his sh% is already higher than the previous 2 NHL stints where he goes from a career 6.13% to 8.3% in 2021. These 2 seasons see Tage as a 23 and 24 year old (prime breakout time for most NHL players). The combined numbers are more interesting as Thompson has 46 goals on 349shots meaning in only 10 extra games he produced 186 more shots compared to the first 2 year sample. Her produced 90 more shots in 28 fewer games comparing 18/19 to just 2022. And now the all important sh% for 21 and 2022 seasons, 13.18% over those two years. Now the key for me here is that 13.18 isn't particularly outlandish and might be roughly sustainable +/- 3% or again 28-40goals depending on shot totals. 

In the end I think Tage probably will never hit 40 goals unless he shoots more (which is possible) but it is realistic to assume that his 11.6% career sh% is a sustainable number as it correlates to a steady improvement. Basically I think Tage is a 28-32 goal scorer for his prime and for 7.1mil, that seems good to me. We will certainly know after this year but the system change and position change couples with watching all 24 of his EV goals makes me think it is probably sustainable. If you view him as a 30goal scorer as opposed to 40, you should be rewarded. 

 

Dude, you always bring the facts. Thanks.

You last paragraph I think is spot on. My guess is he never tops last year in goals, but drops down to a reasonable SH% and hovers around 30. People that are predisposed will complain that he got a big contract on one year, but in reality he's being paid like a 2C 30 goal, 60 point guy, which is probably where he ends up. The league average is something like 9.9%, I don't think he'll drop below that.

[Buffalonill]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

I think if he has another strong season it goes up to the $8M to $8.5M range.  

You see im ok with this hes proven then . 

There's no mystery in what im getting .

Maybe im just old  Fashioned lol

 

Edited August 31, 2022 by Buffalonill

[LGR4GM]

19 minutes ago, MattPie said:

Dude, you always bring the facts. Thanks.

You last paragraph I think is spot on. My guess is he never tops last year in goals, but drops down to a reasonable SH% and hovers around 30. People that are predisposed will complain that he got a big contract on one year, but in reality he's being paid like a 2C 30 goal, 60 point guy, which is probably where he ends up. The league average is something like 9.9%, I don't think he'll drop below that.

If Tage Thompson is a consistent 25g and say 35a guy over the next 8 years (there will 100% be 1 season where he is both above and below that) than I will be content. I want him to be a 70pt player though so bad, it would just really start to solidify this team. Skinner can be a 65pt guy, Tuch can be a 65pt guy, and Tage can be 70. 

And then Jack Quinn can be 90. 

[dudacek]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

If Tage Thompson is a consistent 25g and say 35a guy over the next 8 years (there will 100% be 1 season where he is both above and below that) than I will be content. I want him to be a 70pt player though so bad, it would just really start to solidify this team. Skinner can be a 65pt guy, Tuch can be a 65pt guy, and Tage can be 70. 

And then Jack Quinn can be 90. 

I'm not saying Tage is a 40/40 man — on the contrary, I see him more as a 30/30 — but I would not be surprised if he has that big 80-point season in him sometime over the next 8 years.

He put up 24/16/40 in the 2nd half of last season, he works hard at his craft and his tool kit is a unicorn.

 

[Weave]

32 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

You see im ok with this hes proven then . 

There's no mystery in what im getting .

Maybe im just old  Fashioned lol

Not old fashioned.  Risk averse.

Making risk averse decisions is safe.  But it never gives you the opportunity to have a player at a high value contract because you don’t offer the deal until both you and the players agent have a very concrete idea of value.  It also results in the team affording fewer impact players because you’ve waited until their contractual worth is at their highest before locking them in.

The reason TP is paying alot of money for a large analytics team is to make value decisions on obtaining players, and offering players contracts before their value had been fully set.

TT is the first big test of the analytics team IMO.

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, Weave said:

Not old fashioned.  Risk averse.

Making risk averse decisions is safe.  But it never gives you the opportunity to have a player at a high value contract because you don’t offer the deal until both you and the players agent have a very concrete idea of value.  It also results in the team affording fewer impact players because you’ve waited until their contractual worth is at their highest before locking them in.

The reason TP is paying alot of money for a large analytics team is to make value decisions on obtaining players, and offering players contracts before their value had been fully set.

TT is the first big test of the analytics team IMO.

2nd but yes we agree it is a big test for sure. 

[triumph_communes]

Tage was drafted as a guy with a great shot and a great frame they were hoping he could fill out. IIRC he never even scored an even strength goal in school they were all PP one timers. 
 

His recent season was all 5v5 play. He’s deferred much of those PP touches to Oloffson. And he still nearly potted 40. 
 

There’s some players that will always have a high shooting % and Tage is one of them. His shooting percentage playing 4th line grinder minutes isn’t relevant. None of those guys are feeding him passes like he does on a skill line. 

[inkman]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

 

Throwing a whole pile of money at anyone over term is always inherently risky.

Concerns about the limited body of work are fair.

Putting ton of weight on his play at 21 versus his play at 24 is not supported by the way most NHL players develop and he barely played the 2 years in between.

I’ve seen enough to be reasonably confident he can be a good 2nd line centre for the majority of the next 8years. And that’s what this contract will pay him to be.

I sign the deal now because I see the chances of him being more are greater than the chances of him being less, and, like @Thorny said I need guys to outplay their contracts.

I also see the cultural value in rewarding guys who exemplify the culture.

 

 

I’m glad you brought up Tage being paid as a 2nd line center.  Totally correct. Now is one of Savoie, Krebs or Cozens going to become the number one or do they roll 3 second line caliber centers along with a 4th line.  

[MattPie]

8 minutes ago, inkman said:

I’m glad you brought up Tage being paid as a 2nd line center.  Totally correct. Now is one of Savoie, Krebs or Cozens going to become the number one or do they roll 3 second line caliber centers along with a 4th line.  

The Sabres have had luck in the past with the 2A 2B 2C 4 line setup.

[LGR4GM]

39 minutes ago, inkman said:

I’m glad you brought up Tage being paid as a 2nd line center.  Totally correct. Now is one of Savoie, Krebs or Cozens going to become the number one or do they roll 3 second line caliber centers along with a 4th line.  

I'll be a little shocked if it is Krebs but Savoie has a chance and I am very curious to see this years Cozens. 

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, MattPie said:

Dude, you always bring the facts. Thanks.

You last paragraph I think is spot on. My guess is he never tops last year in goals, but drops down to a reasonable SH% and hovers around 30. People that are predisposed will complain that he got a big contract on one year, but in reality he's being paid like a 2C 30 goal, 60 point guy, which is probably where he ends up. The league average is something like 9.9%, I don't think he'll drop below that.

If his shooting percentage drops and Quinn becomes an alternate trigger man on the PP then Tage should get more assists.

Skinner will bang in more of the rebounds if goalies cheat towards Tage or he will get wise and dish to a better option.

30-30 is the bar and anything more is good. I want to see him get better at faceoffs, use his reach and strength. Flattening the odd Dman who thinks he has a bead on Tage would be welcome too.

[French Collection]

35 minutes ago, inkman said:

I’m glad you brought up Tage being paid as a 2nd line center.  Totally correct. Now is one of Savoie, Krebs or Cozens going to become the number one or do they roll 3 second line caliber centers along with a 4th line.  

There is outside chance Östlund or Kulich blossom into a 1C.

Mitts can break out this year if he is healthy, I don’t see him as a 1C but another guy with 60 points would be great.

Then there is the one in a million shot the Sabres get Connor Bedard.

[LGR4GM]

16 minutes ago, French Collection said:

There is outside chance Östlund or Kulich blossom into a 1C.

Mitts can break out this year if he is healthy, I don’t see him as a 1C but another guy with 60 points would be great.

Then there is the one in a million shot the Sabres get Connor Bedard.

The 2023 draft is gonna be fun.

[matter2003]

Good movie by the Sabres, his price was only going up next year if they waited most likely

[That Aud Smell]

43 minutes ago, MattPie said:

The Sabres have had luck in the past with the 2A 2B 2C 4 line setup.

Still wish I could find a recording of that WGR listener who called in with his "I Roll Four Lines" song in ~2006 - he sang it in the style of Johnny Cash, from the perspective of Lindy Ruff.

14 minutes ago, French Collection said:

There is outside chance Östlund or Kulich blossom into a 1C.