Sabres Sign Tage Thompson to a 7 year 50 Million Dollar Contract Extension

[Cascade Youth]

54 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Just about every move GMKA has made until now has been the sort of move that the peanut gallery can murmur in approval and politely golf clap. This is the first move that feels like it involves real risk (?). I’m hoping and praying that they got this right. They have way more information than I do. I want to trust them. And like Fox Mulder, I want to believe.

Also: Please stop feeding the troll.

 

Man.  I don’t agree with his takes but he is NOT trolling.  He’s making arguments, maybe they’re bad ones, but it’s not incendiary drivel.  This place is tough for outsiders.  I get that there are about 20 of you “core” posters who are on here regularly but frankly it’s really not a friendly place for the rest of us.  The shunning that goes on here if you’re not a regular screen name - it’s frustrating and maybe warrants some self-reflection.  I dunno, maybe you all like it this way but as an outsider/lurker, the air is a bit stale in here - it’s basically the same posters making the same points in every thread - some of it is very insightful and that’s why I come back, but as I said it’s really not a welcoming place.  I really hope it doesn’t become an obscure sub-Reddit but there are days where it is trending that way.

[#freejame]

6 minutes ago, Cascade Youth said:

Man.  I don’t agree with his takes but he is NOT trolling.  He’s making arguments, maybe they’re bad ones, but it’s not incendiary drivel.  This place is tough for outsiders.  I get that there are about 20 of you “core” posters who are on here regularly but frankly it’s really not a friendly place for the rest of us.  The shunning that goes on here if you’re not a regular screen name - it’s frustrating and maybe warrants some self-reflection.  I dunno, maybe you all like it this way but as an outsider/lurker, the air is a bit stale in here - it’s basically the same posters making the same points in every thread - some of it is very insightful and that’s why I come back, but as I said it’s really not a welcoming place.  I really hope it doesn’t become an obscure sub-Reddit but there are days where it is trending that way.

Give it a winning season, things will get better. 

[steveoath]

I really like this move. Yes we don't know what TT will do next year. However on the positive side regarding team chem/strategy if Tage produces this year and is a bonefide 1c that effectively sets up the upper limit for the contracts for the rest of the squad. Would they pay more for lower producing forwards? Would those forward expect more than TT? I think the gamble Adams is making here could actually help the overall cap structure in the future.

[That Aud Smell]

16 minutes ago, steveoath said:

I really like this move. Yes we don't know what TT will do next year. However on the positive side regarding team chem/strategy if Tage produces this year and is a bonefide 1c that effectively sets up the upper limit for the contracts for the rest of the squad. Would they pay more for lower producing forwards? Would those forward expect more than TT? I think the gamble Adams is making here could actually help the overall cap structure in the future.

The idea that this contract could help the team’s cap structure is intriguing.

Edited August 31, 2022 by That Aud Smell

[That Aud Smell]

30 minutes ago, Cascade Youth said:

Man.  I don’t agree with his takes but he is NOT trolling. 

Disagree - although I haven’t willingly looked at one of his posts in a long time. We may have differing definitions of what it means to troll a board.

I edited my post to remove the request.

I struggle to understand the “outsider” “unwelcoming” type talk that is posted from time to time. It’s a (largely anonymous) message board - not a high school lunch room. Have a take - don’t cost nothin’. 

[WhenWillItEnd66]

I have always like TT. I think expectations of him were too high and he was not ready when we first got him. He matured and took his lumps and he can possibly be a seriously good diamond in the rough after most thought he was going to be a career AHLer or maybe a 3rd line NHLer. His scoring touch has always been there and maybe moving him to center opened up for everything to really connect with him. A bit nervous about the extension after one good year but i believe we will see more of his last year performance and be happy with this contract in the end. Happy  he is going to be a Sabres for a long time. 

[Zamboni]

59 minutes ago, Cascade Youth said:

Man.  I don’t agree with his takes but he is NOT trolling.  He’s making arguments, maybe they’re bad ones, but it’s not incendiary drivel.  This place is tough for outsiders.  I get that there are about 20 of you “core” posters who are on here regularly but frankly it’s really not a friendly place for the rest of us.  The shunning that goes on here if you’re not a regular screen name - it’s frustrating and maybe warrants some self-reflection.  I dunno, maybe you all like it this way but as an outsider/lurker, the air is a bit stale in here - it’s basically the same posters making the same points in every thread - some of it is very insightful and that’s why I come back, but as I said it’s really not a welcoming place.  I really hope it doesn’t become an obscure sub-Reddit but there are days where it is trending that way.

Part of the problem, is it’s all allowed to flourish. It’s not shut down with any consistency. And it’s not equally distributed moderation. As much as they disagree, it just isn’t. It is what it is. It would be beneficial to all if there was a pinned thread that asks “what can I do to make this forum or website a better experience for everyone?”. And take it seriously. And delete/shut down smartass sarcasm. Oh well. It is what it is.

[Zamboni]

Throwing money like this at a younger center is not nearly as high of a risk as throwing money at a winger like Skinner. It’s a risk for sure. But a fair risk. 

[That Aud Smell]

22 minutes ago, NJhopelessSabresfan66 said:

 maybe moving him to center opened up for everything to really connect with him.

Granato’s greatest accomplishment, imo. Granato’s saving Dahlin may actually prove more consequential, but the moving Thompson to centre and developing him there was absolutely masterful.

Edited August 31, 2022 by That Aud Smell

[Cascade Youth]

28 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Throwing money like this at a younger center is not nearly as high of a risk as throwing money at a winger like Skinner. It’s a risk for sure. But a fair risk. 

Agreed and at the end of the day they have to trust their internal evaluations - if they’re wrong, they’re going to be accountable and they know that.  They think Tage can sustain last year’s level of production and they’re putting their money where their mouths are.  After years of searching for a 2C let’s hope they’re right.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Cascade Youth

[PromoTheRobot]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I'm with @Buffalonill on this one.  I'm very concerned about regression with TnT for the coming season.  While the term and $ would be fine for a more proven player, but Tage literally has played one full NHL season.  His improvement as a player under DG is undeniable, but last year 15% shooting % is a major red flag.

Someone brought up Pastrnak as an example of how someone can suddenly emerge.  However David shot 10.8% and 13.9% in the year prior to his first 30 goal season.  In that season, at age 20, he actually only shot 13% and has sustained that or better since then.  Thompson is not Pastrnak.

Thompson's % prior to this past season were 5.5%, 6.5% and 8.3%.  

I would have liked to at least see how TnT played this coming season for the first 30-40 games before making this extension.  Now if Tage regresses, we have another albratros contract on our hand like Skinners.  

Pominville is an interesting comparison.  Pommers first (of 3) 30 goal seasons came with a 16% shooting %.  He never came close to that % again.  However, Pommers was also a good playmaker and could still drive offense even when the puck wasn't going in.  Pommers had 3 seasons with 40 to 50 assists.  Tage doesn't have that in his arsenal at this point if the puck isn't going in. 

I'll be happy to be proven wrong again on a TnT contract.  However the stakes are much higher now.  If the Sabres don't get legit value from this contract, it could really limit the upside of this rebuild.   

Rooting for failure just to be able to say "I told you so." No one is ever really happy to be proven wrong.

[PromoTheRobot]

I lived through this over at the Bills board drafting Josh Allen. Some people are so invested in their takes they are disappointed by success.

[Buffalonill]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I'm with @Buffalonill on this one.  I'm very concerned about regression with TnT for the coming season.  While the term and $ would be fine for a more proven player, but Tage literally has played one full NHL season.  His improvement as a player under DG is undeniable, but last year 15% shooting % is a major red flag.

Someone brought up Pastrnak as an example of how someone can suddenly emerge.  However David shot 10.8% and 13.9% in the year prior to his first 30 goal season.  In that season, at age 20, he actually only shot 13% and has sustained that or better since then.  Thompson is not Pastrnak.

Thompson's % prior to this past season were 5.5%, 6.5% and 8.3%.  

I would have liked to at least see how TnT played this coming season for the first 30-40 games before making this extension.  Now if Tage regresses, we have another albratros contract on our hand like Skinners.  

Pominville is an interesting comparison.  Pommers first (of 3) 30 goal seasons came with a 16% shooting %.  He never came close to that % again.  However, Pommers was also a good playmaker and could still drive offense even when the puck wasn't going in.  Pommers had 3 seasons with 40 to 50 assists.  Tage doesn't have that in his arsenal at this point if the puck isn't going in. 

I'll be happy to be proven wrong again on a TnT contract.  However the stakes are much higher now.  If the Sabres don't get legit value from this contract, it could really limit the upside of this rebuild.   

 Exactly  He hasn't shown consistency of being this "guy" yet 

 And fans have to realize his shooting percentage is gonna go down so he could likely be at 25-30 goals or lower.

 I just wish they waited half a season then gave him this contract if he  Continued on this path .

For example casey  lets say he had the "Tage season" 

(61 points in the first 155 games -casey )

(35 points in the first 145 games - tage )

...........

 Would everyone be comfortable giving Casey that contract if he had the "tage" year last season ? 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 31, 2022 by Buffalonill

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, steveoath said:

I really like this move. Yes we don't know what TT will do next year. However on the positive side regarding team chem/strategy if Tage produces this year and is a bonefide 1c that effectively sets up the upper limit for the contracts for the rest of the squad. Would they pay more for lower producing forwards? Would those forward expect more than TT? I think the gamble Adams is making here could actually help the overall cap structure in the future.

This is a really good point that I hadn't thought of.

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

9 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

Ok i understand you need to  take a risk but with 1 year and 4 consecutive ***** ones is my concern. 

 

Cozens would be my ideal take a chance on for a long-term type deal he's showed  Glimpses of excellency 

 

This makes no sense. You’d give Cozens a long term type deal before he’s proven anything, but the TT deal is a huge risk?  This is just silly.

[inkman]

9 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

 Exactly  He hasn't shown consistency of being this "guy" yet 

 And fans have to realize his shooting percentage is gonna go down so he could likely be at 25-30 goals or lower.

 I just wish they waited half a season then gave him this contract if he  Continued on this path .

For example casey  lets say he had the "Tage season" 

(61 points in the first 155 games -casey )

(35 points in the first 145 games - tage )

...........

 Would everyone be comfortable giving Casey that contract if he had the "tage" year last season ? 

 

 

 

 

What is he scores 35 goals by midseason? Then you gotta pay him $10 mil?  

[Flashsabre]

8 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

 Exactly  He hasn't shown consistency of being this "guy" yet 

 And fans have to realize his shooting percentage is gonna go down so he could likely be at 25-30 goals or lower.

 I just wish they waited half a season then gave him this contract if he  Continued on this path .

For example casey  lets say he had the "Tage season" 

(61 points in the first 155 games -casey )

(35 points in the first 145 games - tage )

...........

 Would everyone be comfortable giving Casey that contract if he had the "tage" year last season ? 

 

 

 

 

Everyone is agreeing their is risk in the deal.  

Your argument though seems to be that if he puts up 40 goals this season that they could sign him to the same deal next offseason. No way. With the cap going up and coming off of 2 seasons of 38 and 40 goals you would be looking at 8x $10 type of numbers. That is a big difference and hence why you take that risk now.

[Buffalonill]

15 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I lived through this over at the Bills board drafting Josh Allen. Some people are so invested in their takes they are disappointed by success.

I wasn't a believer in bills josh allen thought he was the next peyton Hillis .

But he shut me up and all of the media when he  Went back-to-back ridiculous seasons .

 

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

Really? drury out of college( his rookie year NHL) hit 44 points.  Thats impressive and has  a outstanding sophomore season with 60 + points 

You keep saying age when tage had a total of 35 points  in 145 nhl games before last season 

Thats my concern 

I agree and it is my concern as well. There are three things that give me hope. 

1) Tage is abnormally tall and it takes tall skinny guys a little bit of time to figure out their bodies

2) Ralph Krueger sucks. Granato was already on WGR this morning talking again about how he moved Tage to center so he could go right or left. Tage has good skating but he doesn't have great skating. Think about Skinner on a wall, he can cut in any direction with almost no indication but Tage doesn't really do that. Part of the reason is style of player and I am using Skinner because he has the best edges on the team. Again, Tage has good skating so don't think I am bashing him but he isn't a slashing skater along the wall and he can do that more at center ice. Krueger had Tage on the walls playing a system for 2 years that was basically, get the puck to the point and shoot. Granato focuses on rush offense which I think is right in Tage's wheelhouse. 

3) Tage Thompson himself. He doesn't strike me as a guy who was good with just being good enough, he seems to constantly improve. Hopefully as Granato claims, Tage will view this contract not as "they owed it to me" and more of the mindset of "now I have to work hard to earn this deal". 

I worry for sure. Tage shot higher than he has ever and that gives me pause. His other stats which I will drop below show that he does have some holes in his game. That said if he is going to drop 50-60pts every year, that's the going rate today and it will not be the going rate in 2023 when the cap finally starts going up again. 

Personally I think we are literally seeing a coach unlock a player and also the negative impacts of a bad coach for his 22 and 23 yr old seasons. Quick note the card has an error as Tage is not at 7.1x8

[Curt]

17 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

 Exactly  He hasn't shown consistency of being this "guy" yet 

 And fans have to realize his shooting percentage is gonna go down so he could likely be at 25-30 goals or lower.

 I just wish they waited half a season then gave him this contract if he  Continued on this path .

For example casey  lets say he had the "Tage season" 

(61 points in the first 155 games -casey )

(35 points in the first 145 games - tage )

...........

 Would everyone be comfortable giving Casey that contract if he had the "tage" year last season ? 

 

Next offseason I would be comfortable giving Mittelstadt this exact same contract if this coming season he has a year as good as Tage just had.

[SwampD]

13 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

They paid half of that money just for his release alone. Just nasty.

13 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

 Exactly  He hasn't shown consistency of being this "guy" yet 

 And fans have to realize his shooting percentage is gonna go down so he could likely be at 25-30 goals or lower.

 I just wish they waited half a season then gave him this contract if he  Continued on this path .

For example casey  lets say he had the "Tage season" 

(61 points in the first 155 games -casey )

(35 points in the first 145 games - tage )

...........

 Would everyone be comfortable giving Casey that contract if he had the "tage" year last season ? 

It's called progression.

9 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

Ok i understand you need to  take a risk but with 1 year and 4 consecutive ***** ones is my concern. 

 

Cozens would be my ideal take a chance on for a long-term type deal he's showed  Glimpses of excellency 

 

I'm sure you will grouse about that as well, when it happens.

I have been a little underwhelmed by Cozens (That's sounds worse than I mean, because he's right where I expect him to be given that he's really young). Not sure that I've seen glimpses of excellency. More like Glimpses of a future decent NHLer.

[Buffalonill]

16 minutes ago, inkman said:

What is he scores 35 goals by midseason? Then you gotta pay him $10 mil?  

 Honestly if he did that would anyone be upset at 10m ? That would  Mean  We'd have a player close to Austin Matthews

I would rather take a chance of tage repeating or being greater then having the risk of being a player that pots 15-20 goals for 40 points at 7m

 

 

[Buffalonill]

15 minutes ago, Curt said:

Next offseason I would be comfortable giving Mittelstadt this exact same contract if this coming season he has a year as good as Tage just had.

Yeah but im putting in perspective if it was Casey instead of tage for the  career year.

 

btw I would  Expect people to say that for next year beacuse of tage 

[LGR4GM]

Tage would have 29goals if he had the exact same number of shots this upcoming season and shot his career sh% of 11.6

[dudacek]

9 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

Really? drury out of college( his rookie year NHL) hit 44 points.  Thats impressive and has  a outstanding sophomore season with 60 + points 

You keep saying age when tage had a total of 35 points  in 145 nhl games before last season 

Thats my concern 

 

9 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

So you're going to forget that everyone wanted tage thrown into the moon.

And it wasn't the coaches he was just horrible. 

 

 

Throwing a whole pile of money at anyone over term is always inherently risky.

Concerns about the limited body of work are fair.

Putting ton of weight on his play at 21 versus his play at 24 is not supported by the way most NHL players develop and he barely played the 2 years in between.

I’ve seen enough to be reasonably confident he can be a good 2nd line centre for the majority of the next 8years. And that’s what this contract will pay him to be.

I sign the deal now because I see the chances of him being more are greater than the chances of him being less, and, like @Thorny said I need guys to outplay their contracts.

I also see the cultural value in rewarding guys who exemplify the culture.