Sabres Sign Tage Thompson to a 7 year 50 Million Dollar Contract Extension

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

It still comes down to one fundamental point and that is: it's based on ONE season. 

So, you can believe, as the Sabres obviously do, that he has developed and matured and that was his break out season and he will continue to play similar or perhaps even better hockey. If he does, it's a good contract and may become a great contract for the team .

Or you can believe that he had a lucky fluke year and isn't really that good in which case he will be overpaid. It's a possibility. As a fan you won't want to believe in this possibility, but it is a possibility.

Or lastly, you can be uncertain of what he will be (which I am) and so you can believe the contract was premature. So as a fan you end up hoping for the first but fearing the second. So I view it as a gamble. 

The stats can't disprove this as the sample size and body of work isn't large enough. 

I’d say it’s actually based on the overall body of work since Adams got here, including things like off-ice habits and attitude, leadership, character, development, what he’s shown in practice, a deep dive into his analytics and the way his game has trended. It hasn’t been one season of fringe play, followed by one season of 68 points, it’s been 120 games of steady improvement.

Otherwise, except for the part about him being overpaid if he doesn’t continue to produce an average of 38 goals and 68 points a season (as spelled out upthread, 25 and 60 are more realistic) over the term of the contract, what you're saying is entirely true.

From what Adams has seen of Thompson, he bet the over.

We all hope he was right.

Edited September 5, 2022 by dudacek

[Curt]

7 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well I was trying to find comparable salaries.  Miller's contract is the only current comparable and that was already discussed. I personally find it hard to compare Tage to other players since it was an oddly surprising season for him at a new position. I'm really not sure WHO he compares to if anyone in terms of style and play.

Some other comparable contracts signed recently.

Josh Norris

Nick Suzuki

Both guys signed very large contract extensions after displaying a very limited track record.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

It still comes down to one fundamental point and that is: it's based on ONE season. 

So, you can believe, as the Sabres obviously do, that he has developed and matured and that was his break out season and he will continue to play similar or perhaps even better hockey. If he does, it's a good contract and may become a great contract for the team .

Or you can believe that he had a lucky fluke year and isn't really that good in which case he will be overpaid. It's a possibility. As a fan you won't want to believe in this possibility, but it is a possibility.

Or lastly, you can be uncertain of what he will be (which I am) and so you can believe the contract was premature. So as a fan you end up hoping for the first but fearing the second. So I view it as a gamble. 

The stats can't disprove this as the sample size and body of work isn't large enough. 

This is true. 

I fully agree it's a gamble. I'm oddly comfortable with it. 

[steveoath]

7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Leino is a bad comparison. 

He was 27 in his supposed breakout year. In every year prior, his sh% was very consistent with 7.8, 8.7, and 7.4. As important, Leino had never cracked 100 shots before his breakout and never would again. He had a grand total of 117 shots in that year with a 16.2sh% 

So you had a guy with about 50 more shots than normal and who was shooting basically double his career sh% to that point. 

Now compare to Tage. First Tage can play center because he did it this year but let's do numbers only. Tage had his breakout at 24 not 27. He went 5.5, 6.5, and 8.3sh% in the 3 prior years. The only other year over 100 shots is the only other year he played more than half a season. As noted, Leino never came close to 200 shots and tage hit 253. 

Now his 15% this year is almost double his pervious year, however that 15% accounts for almost half of his shots ever taken. Again, I think if it regressed to his avg of 11.6 that's normal but I'm curious if it will. So we have to believe that 24yr old Tage managed to shoot about 50% of the total shots he's ever taken at a sh% so high he can't repeat anything in the ballpark and it just doesn't add up.  

Tage shooting about 250 shots at 12% makes the contract work. If Tage stays at 15% and 250 shots, it's really good. Time will tell. 

This article is bad. It makes 1 variable the be all end all without any context. Did you know Skinner was at his worse under Krueger? Tage's move to center not mentioned. Stafford had 4 hat tricks that year and if you calculate his sh% to that point, he should have repeated. It's a really surface level take that doesn't deserve 3 ppl posting it over 3 days. 

I can only assume they'll follow this article up by looking at all the times a team "bet" on an emerging player and it worked out fine.

 

[Brawndo]

10 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

And Reinhart signed the contract in a different year. 

Holy crap ppl. This article has been posted 3 times now

 

10 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Stop posting the sh% article from the athletic already. 

Especially since the article is bad

Yeah I’ll take Sam Ventura’s Opinion over Jonathan Willis any day 

[Digger]

https://www.tsn.ca/travis-yost-assessing-the-risk-of-tage-thompson-s-extension-with-buffalo-sabres-1.1844752

Travis Yost from TSN story.  Interesting read, some similar arguments to those made on the board earlier, although the comparison with Kotkaniemi given their roles on their respective teams isn't the best.

[JoeSchmoe]

Thompson's unbelievable shot goes completely unmentioned in all of these articles people are posting. The leverage he gets on it due to his size is duplicated by few in the league. This is something the eye test absolutely has to see. The BS stats and comparisons these chumps keep rolling out are absolutely meaningless. Nick Suzuki is 5 fricken 11 and plays a completely different game. Robert Thomas 6 foot nothing. Totally different players. Chumps!

Last year, partly from being a center (and often closer to the net) and partly from coaching, he got his shot off a lot quicker than when he'd always go for that extra toe drag. That's it.

As long as he's playing with decent linemates that enable him to see enough pucks in high danger areas, I see a low probability of this not panning out. Save us the stupid articles and talking heads and instead, let's just get excited for the season!!!!

Edited September 6, 2022 by JoeSchmoe

[Zamboni]

1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Thompson's unbelievable shot goes completely unmentioned in all of these articles people are posting. The leverage he gets on it due to his size is duplicated by few in the league. This is something the eye test absolutely has to see. The BS stats and comparisons these chumps keep rolling out are absolutely meaningless. Nick Suzuki is 5 fricken 11 and plays a completely different game. Robert Thomas 6 foot nothing. Totally different players. Chumps!

Last year, partly from being a center (and often closer to the net) and partly from coaching, he got his shot off a lot quicker than when he'd always go for that extra toe drag. That's it.

As long as he's playing with decent linemates that enable him to see enough pucks in high danger areas, I see a low probability of this not panning out. Save us the stupid articles and talking heads and instead, let's just get excited for the season!!!!

Yea but the real burning question is … is TNT’s shot as good as JT Millers or any other “flavor of the day/shiny toy” player any “writer” wants to compare him to? 🤔

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Digger said:

https://www.tsn.ca/travis-yost-assessing-the-risk-of-tage-thompson-s-extension-with-buffalo-sabres-1.1844752

Travis Yost from TSN story.  Interesting read, some similar arguments to those made on the board earlier, although the comparison with Kotkaniemi given their roles on their respective teams isn't the best.

Yost should have done better research.

"What makes Thompson such a fascinating player is, prior to the 2021-22 season, he was struggling to maintain himself as an NHL regular. But last season, in a contract year, Thompson’s play exploded to the upside. The winger-turned-centre scored 38 goals (68 points) in a new role"

Tage wasn't in a contract year. 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Thompson's unbelievable shot goes completely unmentioned in all of these articles people are posting. The leverage he gets on it due to his size is duplicated by few in the league. This is something the eye test absolutely has to see. The BS stats and comparisons these chumps keep rolling out are absolutely meaningless. Nick Suzuki is 5 fricken 11 and plays a completely different game. Robert Thomas 6 foot nothing. Totally different players. Chumps!

Last year, partly from being a center (and often closer to the net) and partly from coaching, he got his shot off a lot quicker than when he'd always go for that extra toe drag. That's it.

As long as he's playing with decent linemates that enable him to see enough pucks in high danger areas, I see a low probability of this not panning out. Save us the stupid articles and talking heads and instead, let's just get excited for the season!!!!

Idk if I'd call them meaningless. There's risk with what the Sabres just did with Tage.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Thompson's unbelievable shot goes completely unmentioned in all of these articles people are posting. The leverage he gets on it due to his size is duplicated by few in the league. This is something the eye test absolutely has to see. The BS stats and comparisons these chumps keep rolling out are absolutely meaningless. Nick Suzuki is 5 fricken 11 and plays a completely different game. Robert Thomas 6 foot nothing. Totally different players. Chumps!

Last year, partly from being a center (and often closer to the net) and partly from coaching, he got his shot off a lot quicker than when he'd always go for that extra toe drag. That's it.

As long as he's playing with decent linemates that enable him to see enough pucks in high danger areas, I see a low probability of this not panning out. Save us the stupid articles and talking heads and instead, let's just get excited for the season!!!!

I've been thinking about this too -- he's really good at using that leverage to create a great wrister that is a major weapon.  I think the leverage allows for the wrister to be both quick-release and high-velocity.  And his high-skill hands make it accurate as well.

 

6 hours ago, Curt said:

Some other comparable contracts signed recently.

Josh Norris

Nick Suzuki

Both guys signed very large contract extensions after displaying a very limited track record.

Yes indeed and here are some numbers:  All 3 of them are centers, Norris and Suzuki were both born in 1999, 2 years after TT was born, both Norris and Suzuki got 8 years, $63MM, and Suzuki has played 209 NHL games, TT 223 and Norris 125).

Just sayin'.

 

1 hour ago, Digger said:

https://www.tsn.ca/travis-yost-assessing-the-risk-of-tage-thompson-s-extension-with-buffalo-sabres-1.1844752

Travis Yost from TSN story.  Interesting read, some similar arguments to those made on the board earlier, although the comparison with Kotkaniemi given their roles on their respective teams isn't the best.

Good read.  Thanks for posting.

[JoeSchmoe]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Idk if I'd call them meaningless. There's risk with what the Sabres just did with Tage.

There's a risk for sure. But these guys are all completely uninformed. Maybe they should watch some games instead of baffling us all with bull-💩.

[PerreaultForever]

9 hours ago, Curt said:

Some other comparable contracts signed recently.

Josh Norris

Nick Suzuki

Both guys signed very large contract extensions after displaying a very limited track record.

and at the moment, the Suzuki contract looks like a mistake. 

[Curt]

4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

and at the moment, the Suzuki contract looks like a mistake. 

Possibly, but he did just produce like a low end 1C  on a terrible team and led that team in production by a wide margin.

[That Aud Smell]

11 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Thompson's unbelievable shot goes completely unmentioned in all of these articles people are posting.

9 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I've been thinking about this too -- he's really good at using that leverage to create a great wrister that is a major weapon.  I think the leverage allows for the wrister to be both quick-release and high-velocity.  And his high-skill hands make it accurate as well.

I'm still a bit puckered about this deal - hopeful, also a bit worried - but I think this is worth emphasizing. Thompson's shooting has really changed (improved) and it is a formidable weapon. Looks to me like Thompson took to heart the old Bruce Lee saying about how Lee feared the man who practiced 1 kick 10,000 times.

And it's that sort of inference that makes me think of what I've seen @dudacek refer to -- the likelihood that, in going all in on Thompson, GM KA was accounting for things that outsiders can't see (or at least not readily see), such as Thompson's work ethic and dedication to his craft.

[dudacek]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

and at the moment, the Suzuki contract looks like a mistake. 

 

2 hours ago, Curt said:

Possibly, but he did just produce like a low end 1C  on a terrible team and led that team in production by a wide margin.

He is the league’s 21st-highest paid centre. He finished 31st in points and 48th in goals, 9 points behind the 21st-highest scorer.

So, already in the ballpark in terms of value, and, if he keeps producing the way he has the value is only going to improve over the next 8 years.

Canadiens are happy.

[dudacek]

When David Pastrnak signed his last deal (6x6.7}, he had just jumped from a career high of 26 points to 70.

The Bruins made him the league’s 49th highest-paid player.

Five years later, he’s the NHL’s 89th highest-paid player, even with 2 years of flat cap dragging down salaries.

Right now, Tage (7x7.1) will be the 75th-highest paid player when his contract kicks in.

$7 million is not what it used to be and it’s going to be a lot less by the time his contract is over.

Edited September 6, 2022 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

54 minutes ago, dudacek said:

When David Pastrnak signed his last deal (6x6.7}, he had just jumped from a career high of 26 points to 70.

The Bruins made him the league’s 49th highest-paid player.

Five years later, he’s the NHL’s 89th highest-paid player, even with 2 years of flat cap dragging down salaries.

Right now, Tage (7x7.1) will be the 75th-highest paid player when his contract kicks in.

$7 million is not what it used to be and it’s going to be a lot less by the time his contract is over.

I think it will be a lot less by the time the contract even starts. They bumped the cap 1mil this offseason, no way they don't generate enough revenue with a full extra team in the league to jump the cap at least 2-4 million next season. 

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

When David Pastrnak signed his last deal (6x6.7}, he had just jumped from a career high of 26 points to 70.

The Bruins made him the league’s 49th highest-paid player.

Five years later, he’s the NHL’s 89th highest-paid player, even with 2 years of flat cap dragging down salaries.

Right now, Tage (7x7.1) will be the 75th-highest paid player when his contract kicks in.

$7 million is not what it used to be and it’s going to be a lot less by the time his contract is over.

IMO, the best way to judge a contract is what percentage of the cap will that player be taking up at the mid-point of the deal.

We don't know what the cap will be going forward, but a few estimates are out there, and it looks like (based on those estimates, some by Servalli), that the mid point of this deal he will be taking up 7.8%-8.2% of the cap. That not really all that much (Eichel is a different pedigree of course but he is taking up a bit over 12% of the cap at the mid-point of his deal).

If he is a consistent 25 goal scorer, not going under 20 for any season, it is worth it. Anything more than that and it is a bargain for the Sabres. Its only a bad deal if he regresses and becomes a 15-20 goal per year max guy.

 

[Huckleberry]

And for me last year was basically year 1 , because of the switch to center.   I read the Yost article last night but he really isn't saying much.

Would have been better off comparing it to similar contracts signed in the last 20 yrs and what the success rate of it is.

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I think it will be a lot less by the time the contract even starts. They bumped the cap 1mil this offseason, no way they don't generate enough revenue with a full extra team in the league to jump the cap at least 2-4 million next season. 

Remember that they also have another team's worth of salary cutting into the players' share.  Yes, there is more HRR, but the denominator for calculating the cap went from 31 to 32.

It's also very likely that the players haven't finished paying the owners back for the excess share of revenues they got during the lockdown era.  Until that money is fully paid back, the cap will remain relatively static.  After the owners have been fully repaid there will almost definitely be a large bump to the cap.

[Brawndo]

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

20 hours ago, steveoath said:

I can only assume they'll follow this article up by looking at all the times a team "bet" on an emerging player and it worked out fine.

 

Like Jack 😉 or like Reinhart? Or like William Karlsson.  I’d suggest looking at how TB handled Point (and others) to see a management team that doesn’t jump gun.

Obviously finding the failures are easy.  However show some similar situations where it worked out. 

Edited September 6, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

27 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

Yes, that’s always a big concern when these players become RFAs just 1 year away from UFA.  That’s what was hanging over Buffalo’s head when they decided to trade Reinhart, and that’s the reason that Tkachuk was traded from Calgary.

[GASabresIUFAN]

33 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

I get the above consideration added some pressure on KA to get a deal done, but how much really?  Could Tage eventually had walked if they did a shorter deal. Absolutely.  However as the Bills, Atlanta Braves and hockey teams like TB have shown the likelihood of a player wanting to leave decreases with winning and a good team culture to go with it.  If this team takes the next step, no way Tage walks if he is part of the core of a close knit winning team even after an arbitration case.  Also this team is designed for some of these guys to move on.  That’s why KA drafted 3 centers in the 1st rd this year. Even without Tage, the current team would still have Mitts, Cozens and Krebs down the middle.

I would have waited to at least mid-season to see if Tage continued his high level of play before re-signing him.  KA actually did the bold thing and locked him up.  I hope this works and Tage rewards the team and the fans with a 40g 80+ pt season.  

Edited September 6, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN