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Sabres Sign Tage Thompson to a 7 year 50 Million Dollar Contract Extension

Brawndo

By Brawndo
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Taro T Hall of Famer

Taro T

Posted
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34 minutes ago, LTS said:

You don't know data is bad until after you use it and then analyze the results. You don't your model is good until it is proven. Getting something right/wrong once doesn't constitute a pattern.

Decisions are made on the information and knowledge had at the time. They are judged on the information and knowledge gained after that fact. Claiming a decision was bad is easy. Claiming the person who made the decision was incapable of their job is a bit of a stretch without looking at why they made the decision and reasonably inferring they ignored non-debatable facts.

Of course a pattern of bad decisions is another story.

More often than not, it was bad decisions in that 17 year stretch.  Could've listed waaaay more bad picks than just the 2 that were highlighted as you well know.

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Doohicksie Hall of Famer

Doohicksie

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20 hours ago, nfreeman said:

He’s always had the slapper, but last season TT showed a world-class wrister that he can get off quickly and put anywhere he wants with velocity.

Early in his career, and possibly because he was playing wing, he failed miserably just about every time he tried the toe curl maneuver to set up a shot.  Whether it was the move to center, gained NHL-level experience, or coaching on when and how to do that, or a combination of all there, he now is much better moving through traffic and shooting.  At this point I think he's "who he is" as a player and expect it to continue.  So does Kevyn obviously. 

Will he "score in bushels"?  I don't know.  I do think he became a better player as the season progressed, and his baseline now much higher than previously and with any luck he still hasn't hit his ceiling and has a bit more room to grow as a player.

Doohicksie Hall of Famer

Doohicksie

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A lot of players have a down year after signing the big contract (looking at you, Drew Stafford).  Everything I hear from Tage indicates he's determined to prove not only that last season wasn't a fluke, but that he is a part of the team's top core.  I don't see any drop off in motivation.  And when he goes through inevitable slumps I think he'll still be an asset on the ice.  (Okposo provided a good model to emulate in that regard.)

Edited by Doohickie
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French Collection First Liner

French Collection

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3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Not sure if this is posted yet, but a negative point of view from the Maple leafs on this signing.

Sabres Continue to Make Toronto Maple Leafs Look Smart

https://editorinleaf.com/2022/09/01/sabres-continue-toronto-maple-leafs/

I know I won’t enjoy the story but I read it anyway to find out a new way how to get under Leaf’s fans’ skin.

This guy talks about the Sabres potential cap problems. Pot, meet kettle.

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LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Not sure if this is posted yet, but a negative point of view from the Maple leafs on this signing.

Sabres Continue to Make Toronto Maple Leafs Look Smart

https://editorinleaf.com/2022/09/01/sabres-continue-toronto-maple-leafs/

I looked at the comments too. 

I'm here for the Buffalo Sabres 2022 revenge tour... which wouldn't include the Leafs because we beat them anyway. 

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LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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14 minutes ago, Curt said:

That was a fun read.  It’s pretty much void of all relevant context.

I wouldn’t recommend reading it as anything other than comedy.

Once they started talking about Tage as a winger and comparing him to Skinner, I just laughed. Then they compared him to Nylander who signed his deal several years ago and I laughed more. It was someone either unintelligent writing that, or lazy. Funny read though.

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Pimlach All Star

Pimlach

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Posted
4 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Not sure if this is posted yet, but a negative point of view from the Maple leafs on this signing.

Sabres Continue to Make Toronto Maple Leafs Look Smart

https://editorinleaf.com/2022/09/01/sabres-continue-toronto-maple-leafs/

Pure rubbish.  Marner is the one dimensional and overpaid player.  
 

Tage’s first few years are development years. He was mishandled by a team desperate to scrap up an nhl roster.  Not his fault.  

Cascade Youth Fourth Liner

Cascade Youth

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Not sure if this is posted yet, but a negative point of view from the Maple leafs on this signing.

Sabres Continue to Make Toronto Maple Leafs Look Smart

https://editorinleaf.com/2022/09/01/sabres-continue-toronto-maple-leafs/

Here is a more data-driven (sort of) analysis (paywall):

https://theathletic.com/3559089/2022/09/02/nhl-contracts-shooting-percentage-tage-thompson/?source=user_shared_article

 

PromoTheRobot All Star

PromoTheRobot

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17 minutes ago, Cascade Youth said:

Here is a more data-driven (sort of) analysis (paywall):

https://theathletic.com/3559089/2022/09/02/nhl-contracts-shooting-percentage-tage-thompson/?source=user_shared_article

 

Did anyone catch the After The Whistle pod with Craig and Petey? Craig all but called this signing months ago while Petey pounded the table that you don't pay someone for one year's work.

So of course Peters was Mr. Sourpuss while Rivet basked in his glory. If you listen to ATW enough you realize that Peters still carries a lot of bitterness towards the Sabres while claiming to be a supporter. His predictions for the team always skew towards failure. From his lack of faith in Granato (still) to the Thompson signing going south, and where the Sabres are heading in '22/'23, Petey always takes the under.

It makes me wonder if there was more to their departure from The Instigators than has been reported.

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LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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Posted
30 minutes ago, Cascade Youth said:

Here is a more data-driven (sort of) analysis (paywall):

https://theathletic.com/3559089/2022/09/02/nhl-contracts-shooting-percentage-tage-thompson/?source=user_shared_article

 

Sabres on this list of "high shooting percentage, get the contract for all the money, and then revert back to your career sh%"

Drew Stafford, Jeff Skinner, and the #1 player on this list, Ville Leino. 

 

Now I personally always believe in career sh%. After you hit about 150-200 games, your sh% is pretty much set and you hover around that average. Notable exceptions you say? Samson Reinhart in 2018/19 season rocked a 12.2% which was right around his average up to then. His average up to that point was 12.24% so it was reasonable to expect that to continue as we are talking 322 games played (note I am not including his 9 games when he went back to the WHL). 

Sam Reinhart since that season has had a 15.3%, 19.2%, and 17.7% shooting percentage which would be significantly more than his average. Those averages indicate that his new average for those 3 years of 17.39% which is wildly better than 12.24%.  So there are players that have improved their shot and sustained a better sh%. 

What's the catch? The real catch isn't Tage's sh% but the fact he shot 253 times last season. Reinhart shot 186 for a comparison. Matthews, 348. 

So the real question isn't does Thompson manage to stay around 15% (he probably will not and I think that 11.6% average is more likely) but will Thompson continue to put up around 250 shots because if he doesn't, his sh% will matter a great deal less if we see a significant dropoff. 

The deal is a gamble. I want to have faith in Tage but we have been burned so often before. 

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Weave Hall of Famer

Weave

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1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Did anyone catch the After The Whistle pod with Craig and Petey? Craig all but called this signing months ago while Petey pounded the table that you don't pay someone for one year's work.

So of course Peters was Mr. Sourpuss while Rivet basked in his glory. If you listen to ATW enough you realize that Peters still carries a lot of bitterness towards the Sabres while claiming to be a supporter. His predictions for the team always skew towards failure. From his lack of faith in Granato (still) to the Thompson signing going south, and where the Sabres are heading in '22/'23, Petey always takes the under.

It makes me wonder if there was more to their departure from The Instigators than has been reported.

I think he takes the under because for over a decade it’s been the winning bet.

dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

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@LGR4GM posted a while ago about “anchoring” and how once people’s initial impression is cemented it is very hard to move them off of it.

Most of the criticisms I’ve seen of the Tage contract have very little to do about his game on the ice. They mostly amount to “I thought he was ***** before last year, so last year must have been a fluke. Look at his shooting %. He won’t repeat.”

Development is rarely a straight line, but there is nothing unusual about a forward breaking out into what he is somewhere between 22-24, or after 200-300 NHL games and spending the next 6-8 years revolving around that level.

Because of injury and Ralph, Tage never had that 40-point ”maybe he’s better than I thought” transition year statistically to show people, but clearly he spent 2019-21 getting stronger and getting better.

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PromoTheRobot All Star

PromoTheRobot

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4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

@LGR4GM posted a while ago about “anchoring” and how once people’s initial impression is cemented it is very hard to move them off of it.

Most of the criticisms I’ve seen of the Tage contract have very little to do about his game on the ice. They mostly amount to “I thought he was ***** before last year, so last year must have been a fluke. Look at his shooting %. He won’t repeat.”

Development is rarely a straight line, but there is nothing unusual about a forward breaking out into what he is somewhere between 22-24, or after 200-300 NHL games and spending the next 6-8 years revolving around that level.

Because of injury and Ralph, Tage never had that 40-point ”maybe he’s better than I thought” transition year statistically to show people, but clearly he spent 2019-21 getting stronger and getting better.

This is where GM's win or lose: How well do they know their players? What looks like a gamble to people outside might be a slam dunk to Kevyn Adams. Extending Eichel was more of a gamble in hindsight.

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dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

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Posted

Looking at anchoring from another angle:

  • Player A is 23. He has put up career highs of 32 goals and 68 points. He’s got 89 points in 106 games over the past 2 years.
  • Player B is 24. He has put up career highs of 38 goals and 68 points. He’s got 82 points in 116 games over the past 2 years.
  • Player A is touted by many as franchise centre, with the possibility of a 100-point season in his future.
  • Player B is being talked about by many as a major risk to hit 60 points again.

The difference between the 2 is basically 2019 when Elias Pettersson’s Calder Trophy season fixed him in the minds of most as a superstar in the making, and Tage’s Thompson awkward toe drags while ROR was winning the Conn Smythe fixed him in the minds of most as a terrible bust.

Anchoring is a real thing.

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LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Looking at anchoring from another angle:

  • Player A is 23. He has put up career highs of 32 goals and 68 points. He’s got 89 points in 106 games over the past 2 years.
  • Player B is 24. He has put up career highs of 38 goals and 68 points. He’s got 82 points in 116 games over the past 2 years.
  • Player A is touted by many as franchise centre, with the possibility of a 100-point season in his future.
  • Player B is being talked about by many as a major risk to hit 60 points again.

The difference between the 2 is basically 2019 when Elias Pettersson’s Calder Trophy season fixed him in the minds of most as a superstar in the making, and Tage’s Thompson awkward toe drags while ROR was winning the Conn Smythe fixed him in the minds of most as a terrible bust.

Anchoring is a real thing.

Reinhart is a good example. People still talk about him as being a bad skater when in reality, he's quite good. 

Jack Quinn is a great example of anchoring. He's barely spoken of in the calder discussion or in the circle of best young wingers because well, he was overdrafted and his first post draft year was meh (mainly because covid and injury). Btw, it is clear he was not overdrafted at this point, at least to me, and that Jack Quinn truly might be elite. Rossi gets lots of leeway because he had covid so of course his first year back won't be good... maybe that's true or maybe the Sabres were right and Quinn had a higher ceiling. Hard to say right here. 

Josh Allen is the poster child for anchoring. There are pundits to this day who say he isn't accurate. The Unicorn that is Josh Allen worked awfully hard to be more accurate and fix everything about his game, similar to Tage. Yet, Allen is still at times given less credit than he deserves. Again once you have that idea in your mind that a player is X and you anchor to it, it skews everything after. I am not saying Tage will be the Sabres Allen, that's a bridge too far for me... right now. 

Tage can absolutely build and be better this season, he might even come close to his sh%. If it was just business as usual last year and he did this I would be skeptical but you have the position change, the being healthy, the coaching change, and the constant talk from ppl like granato that Tage was working on his shot (we know tage went from a slapper allllllll the time to a wrist shot). 

Owen Power is an example of me anchoring. I watched him early and I felt he had limited skills and relied too much on a size advantage so I ranked him below some players that impressed me more. Right now, with the new information (granted I haven't watched most of the guys I ranked higher) I feel much better about Power being in an elite tier of prospect. 
 

Long way of saying everyone has bias (which is what anchoring is) and the national pundits and those outside of Buffalo have a great deal of bias towards a franchise that has made mistake after mistake after mistake. It's why we are ranked below Detroit to start the season or why ppl look at Tage and call it a fluke because of course it is, because Buffalo. I think Tage can be a reliable 30g scorer in this league if he keeps his shot rate up. But everyone outside of Buffalo needs to see the proof because right now, they view Buffalo as the 11 year playoff drought team that has drafted first overall twice since 2018 and who just traded away their franchise center. BTW, Idk if Eichel is better than Tage at this point due to injuries, I need to see that as opposed to everyone outside of Buffalo who is anchored to the idea that Eichel is a franchise defining player. 

 

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Digger

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3 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Did anyone catch the After The Whistle pod with Craig and Petey? Craig all but called this signing months ago while Petey pounded the table that you don't pay someone for one year's work.

So of course Peters was Mr. Sourpuss while Rivet basked in his glory. If you listen to ATW enough you realize that Peters still carries a lot of bitterness towards the Sabres while claiming to be a supporter. His predictions for the team always skew towards failure. From his lack of faith in Granato (still) to the Thompson signing going south, and where the Sabres are heading in '22/'23, Petey always takes the under.

It makes me wonder if there was more to their departure from The Instigators than has been reported.

Just listened.  I think that Rivet and Peters take different views to make the show more interesting to listen to.  When they started this podcast they did talk to others to see what makes a good podcast.  Debate is a great way to analyse a topic.  

It's a better listen for two guys to debate the signing and the player's skills rather than listen to both agree that it was a great deal.  The opinions they express reflect the Sabres board opinions pretty well.  I enjoy reading the Sabres Board comments and opinions from all of the Poster's perspectives.  Some here think the Thompson signing is a great deal and some thought we should wait to see if he repeats. 

Porous Five Hole Third Liner

Porous Five Hole

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4 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Did anyone catch the After The Whistle pod with Craig and Petey? Craig all but called this signing months ago while Petey pounded the table that you don't pay someone for one year's work.

So of course Peters was Mr. Sourpuss while Rivet basked in his glory. If you listen to ATW enough you realize that Peters still carries a lot of bitterness towards the Sabres while claiming to be a supporter. His predictions for the team always skew towards failure. From his lack of faith in Granato (still) to the Thompson signing going south, and where the Sabres are heading in '22/'23, Petey always takes the under.

It makes me wonder if there was more to their departure from The Instigators than has been reported.

 I think Petey truly believes that last season cannot be taken seriously as a baseline because the Sabres were out of playoff contention in the first two months of the season.  I am paraphrasing, but he’s said before that it’s a lot easier to excel when the games “don’t mean anything.” Vanek is also the same. 
 

In reference to his sourpuss perspective, I agree with you a little bit. I think Petey just fell out of love with hockey. So he’s generally more pessimistic on everything involving the team/the game.  It’s kind of like his path in the NHL. He did what he had to do in the NHL to keep the paychecks coming.  And now with this podcast…He’s doing what he has to do to keep the paychecks coming. With that said, I prefer him to Rivet all day everyday.

Simply reading this board would make him a better podcaster and Sabres resource, but he can’t even be bothered to do that. 

Sabres Fan in NS Hall of Famer

Sabres Fan in NS

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On 9/1/2022 at 12:12 PM, dudacek said:

Well, if history means anything, the chances of Thompson slipping back into being a career 20-goal scorer are pretty slim.

17 other Sabres have scored 35 or more goals in a single season. 15 of them hit 30 at least 4 times in their career.

  • Mogilny: 8 30-goal seasons, 473 career goals
  • Gare:: 8 25-goal seasons, 354 career goals
  • Lafontaine: 9 30 goal seasons, 468 career goals
  • Martin: 8 30 goal seasons, 384 career goals
  • Perreault: 13 25-goal seasons, 512 career goals
  • Vanek: 8 25 goal seasons, 383 career goals
  • Andreychuk: 13 25 goal seasons, 640 career goals
  • Foligno: 9 25 goal seasons, 468 career goals
  • Turgeon: 9 30 goal seasons, 515 career goals
  • Robert: 6 25 goal seasons, 284 career goals
  • Satan: 9 25 goal seasons, 363 career goals
  • Skinner: 7 24 goal seasons, 298 career goals
  • Sheppard: 9 24 goal seasons, 357 career goals
  • Drury: 5 23 goal seasons, 255 career goals
  • McKegney: 9 23-goal seasons, 320 career goals
  • Eichel: 5 24 goal seasons, 153 career goals
  • Hawerchuk: 10 30 goal seasons, 518 career goals

The 2 that didn't/haven't were Eichel and Drury. Eichel is the only one without at least 250 career goals.

It seems that when a Sabre scores as well as Thompson did this year, he's likely to keep scoring.

 

Have you retired in the last year or so?

You seem to be dedicating a lot of time to pulling all this great information out of the cobwebs for us all to digest and enjoy.

 

Curt First Liner

Curt

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Did anyone catch the After The Whistle pod with Craig and Petey? Craig all but called this signing months ago while Petey pounded the table that you don't pay someone for one year's work.

So of course Peters was Mr. Sourpuss while Rivet basked in his glory. If you listen to ATW enough you realize that Peters still carries a lot of bitterness towards the Sabres while claiming to be a supporter. His predictions for the team always skew towards failure. From his lack of faith in Granato (still) to the Thompson signing going south, and where the Sabres are heading in '22/'23, Petey always takes the under.

It makes me wonder if there was more to their departure from The Instigators than has been reported.

I think that both Peters and Rivet disagree with a lot of things regarding how the Sabres were managed when they were there.  They have discussed it several times.

Peters also is bitter toward the NHL of his era in general and the career role that he feels he was kind of pushed into.  He seems to think that if he hadn’t be pushed into being an enforcer, he could have been a contributing bottom 6 player.  Needing to fight caused him a lot stress, anxiety, and contributed to his substance abuse/addiction issues.
 

1 hour ago, Digger said:

Just listened.  I think that Rivet and Peters take different views to make the show more interesting to listen to.  When they started this podcast they did talk to others to see what makes a good podcast.  Debate is a great way to analyse a topic.  

It's a better listen for two guys to debate the signing and the player's skills rather than listen to both agree that it was a great deal.  The opinions they express reflect the Sabres board opinions pretty well.  I enjoy reading the Sabres Board comments and opinions from all of the Poster's perspectives.  Some here think the Thompson signing is a great deal and some thought we should wait to see if he repeats. 

I don’t know if they purposely take different sides of a debate.  They may at times, but in this case regarding a potential and now actual Thompson extension, they have been consistent in their positions for months.

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