Annual expectations thread 2022/23: #26 Rasmus Dahlin

[dudacek]

There's a perception Rasmus Dahlin was awful in the fall and awesome in the spring last season.

It's a perception not actually born out of the numbers. Dahlin's best month, production-wise, was November (along with April), with 10 points. In terms of +/-, it was October with a -1. Overall, he was pretty consistent statistically, putting up between 6 and 10 points per month and was a monthly -3 four times.

His possession numbers improved from the previous year's but not dramatically so; he's been a positive in 3 of his 4 years, and always been one of the Sabres best possession players.

It may be that some impassioned Dahlin-boosting by his coach, followed by more winning hockey by his team played a role in reshaping the narrative in the minds of fans and the player himself.

Or it may be that the eye test is what matters here, and that the high-profile gaffs and tentativeness that drove some fans crazy early last year had largely vanished by season's end to be replaced by an assertive, combative difference-maker.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=201658

Dahlin had a career year in goals assists and points, but it was not what one would call a dramatic breakout statistically; his numbers were actually better on a per/game basis in his 2nd season. What did change was the way he was used. For the first time in his career he was deployed as a true #1D, averaging over 24 minutes a game. He got significant PK time and was out on the ice against the other team's best players.

He appears to now have the shutdown type of partner most wanted for him in Mattias Samuelsson and may have 2nd pairing support with Owen Power.

Dahlin has been overshadowed on the national stage by the likes of Hughes, Makar and Fox putting up near point-per-game numbers sooner in their careers, albeit at an older age. Those guys are generally treading new ground. Victor Hedman jumped to a 50-point player for the first time in his 5th season and a 70-point player in his 8th. Duncan Keith went from 44 to 69 in his fifth. But if Dahlin is going to hit those heights, it might be now or never.

What do you expect from Rasmus Dahlin this year?

(Last year’s takes here):

 

Edited August 28, 2022 by dudacek

[Taro T]

My expectation is that Dahlin continues what he was building last year and he establishes himself as clearly the Sabres best D-man.

Expect he tops last year's #'s and might even become a positive on the +/- for the 1st time ever.  He'll finally show the physicality he displayed as a junior on a consistent, rather than occasionally, basis.  But expect he is still 1 year away from entering the Norris conversation as a serious contender.

Expect this year he'll be darn close to that guy @Thorny thought he was seeing all these years.  😉

 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

He will continue where he left off last year.

He will be in the Norris conversation this year and especially next.  After that I expect nominations as a finalist for years to come and some wins along the way.  Until Power takes over the Norris conversations.

These two will be the dynamic duo for the Sabres for a decade.

[Weave]

Can we have a continuous improvement choice instead of a status quo or big time break as the only options?

[steveoath]

Dahlin will break Ankles, and a couple of faces this session.  Top 3 norris ballot.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Can we have a continuous improvement choice instead of a status quo or big time break as the only options?

No.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

😜

(Seriously though, IMO the difference between "non-elite 1st pairing" (top 50ish?) and legit #1 D (top dozen-ish?) isn't significant enough to warrant a separate category for the purposes of the poll)

[Taro T]

57 minutes ago, dudacek said:

No.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

😜

(Seriously though, IMO the difference between "non-elite 1st pairing" (top 50ish?) and legit #1 D (top dozen-ish?) isn't significant enough to warrant a separate category for the purposes of the poll)

Expect though a lot of the people that chose #3 would've gone w/ "further establish himself as the Sabres #1 while improving over last year but not in the "elite" category" had it been a choice.

[dudacek]

35 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Expect though a lot of the people that chose #3 would've gone w/ "further establish himself as the Sabres #1 while improving over last year but not in the "elite" category" had it been a choice.

I expect there’s a similar case in between most categories.

The idea is to pick the one that best fits your thoughts and post your clarifiers.

[Curt]

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-top-players-top-20-defensemen/c-335376574

Dahlin was just ranked as the 18th best defenseman by NHL.  I’m a bit surprised that he made the list.  What does everyone think? Will Dahlin have a season worthy of being called the 18th best defenseman in the league?

[LHSN1965]

Dahlin est dans la moyenne défensivement. Il fait des super bons jeux et des très mauvais jeu aussi.

Par contre, offensivement, c’est un monstre. Il transporte rondelle Très facilement. Il fait des feintes incroyable. Il est insaisissable. C’est un dieu offensivement 

[MattPie]

25 minutes ago, LHSN1965 said:

Dahlin est dans la moyenne défensivement. Il fait des super bons jeux et des très mauvais jeu aussi.

Par contre, offensivement, c’est un monstre. Il transporte rondelle Très facilement. Il fait des feintes incroyable. Il est insaisissable. C’est un dieu offensivement 

I think his defense is better than you're saying, but I think all D that provide offense have some ugly sequences. I'd put it at above average rather than average, but we're probably on the same page.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, LHSN1965 said:

Dahlin est dans la moyenne défensivement. Il fait des super bons jeux et des très mauvais jeu aussi.

Par contre, offensivement, c’est un monstre. Il transporte rondelle Très facilement. Il fait des feintes incroyable. Il est insaisissable. C’est un dieu offensivement 

Bienvenue!

[French Collection]

3 hours ago, LHSN1965 said:

Dahlin est dans la moyenne défensivement. Il fait des super bons jeux et des très mauvais jeu aussi.

Par contre, offensivement, c’est un monstre. Il transporte rondelle Très facilement. Il fait des feintes incroyable. Il est insaisissable. C’est un dieu offensivement 

No question his offense is way better than his defense. He will continue to improve in both areas.

Look at it this way, if he/Sabres have the puck for the majority of the time he is on the ice, that means there is less defense to be played.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

3 hours ago, LHSN1965 said:

Dahlin est dans la moyenne défensivement. Il fait des super bons jeux et des très mauvais jeu aussi.

Par contre, offensivement, c’est un monstre. Il transporte rondelle Très facilement. Il fait des feintes incroyable. Il est insaisissable. C’est un dieu offensivement 

Bienvenue!!  Vous a envoyé une bière.

He is working hard on his defensive game.  I think he will be fine in that regard.

[Huckleberry]

Him and power together last minutes of the game is going to be fun 🙂

[Pimlach]

Given the choices I have to go with breakout season.   

I do have one reservation though.  While he and Muel looked good last year, should that pairing continue, Dahlin will have to breakout while being paired with a rookie.  I don't think Hughes, Makar, and Fox had that.  

A lot will depend on how the entire teams does.   If they are competing most nights, and avoiding the long losing streaks of past seasons, that will bode well for the kind of development we are looking (hoping) for.  

[Digger]

6 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Given the choices I have to go with breakout season.   

I do have one reservation though.  While he and Muel looked good last year, should that pairing continue, Dahlin will have to breakout while being paired with a rookie.  I don't think Hughes, Makar, and Fox had that.  

A lot will depend on how the entire teams does.   If they are competing most nights, and avoiding the long losing streaks of past seasons, that will bode well for the kind of development we are looking (hoping) for.  

Yes I agree with you but who is the alternative D partner for Dahlin?  I think that Samuelson has been a better fit with him than Jokiharju was.  Also moving Dahlin to the right frees up some of the log jam on the left side.  The pairing with Samuelson is the best option available barring a trade which is highly unlikely at this point.

[HumanSlinky39]

The proverbial switch flipped and I suspect he continues to trend toward elite. I think a lot of the ups/downs he's dealt with have been confidence related, but he looked like he finally was starting to feel comfortable in his own skin out there. Big year coming.

[LGR4GM]

Either he breaks out and is the elite defender he can be, or Dahlin never does and we wait for Power to overtake him while Dahlin still contributes a bunch of points. 

[GoPuckYourself]

I'd say if he doesn't play like he did the 2nd half of the season all year long then it's a huge disappointment. He was not just looking like a star but a franchise type of player. I was waiting for him to start leveling people and it was a thing of beauty when he was laying out guys like Austin Matthews. He was solid defensively and offensively and you could tell guys were looking up to him, he and Samuelsson look like a solid duo for many years to come.

[LPJets16]

Better goal tending behind him and better teammates around him will be a catalyst to his own growth.  I think the Samuelsson pairing and RD positioning was a smart move by DG.

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, LPJets16 said:

Better goal tending behind him and better teammates around him will be a catalyst to his own growth.  I think the Samuelsson pairing and RD positioning was a smart move by DG.

Welcome.

I would like to see him stay at RD and become proficient at it. There is a lot of hesitancy to a Dman playing his offside around the league but he could find some advantages and minimize the disadvantages to make a LH RD all his.

It would be a natural fit for Rasmus when DG needs him paired with Power.

The Russians were practically all LH in the 70’s and 80’s. The big three in Montreal were all LH but played together a lot. Those are two examples of high level success from the past.

[Norcal]

I think Dahlin is about to go the ***** off. 

As the veteran offensive defensemen I think he will want to show young Power what he's learned so far. 

I expect 70 points including 15-20 goals. 

[SwampD]

21 hours ago, French Collection said:

Welcome.

I would like to see him stay at RD and become proficient at it. There is a lot of hesitancy to a Dman playing his offside around the league but he could find some advantages and minimize the disadvantages to make a LH RD all his.

It would be a natural fit for Rasmus when DG needs him paired with Power.

The Russians were practically all LH in the 70’s and 80’s. The big three in Montreal were all LH but played together a lot. Those are two examples of high level success from the past.

Yeah. The only reason there is hesitancy is because it is common practice, not because there is any disadvantages.

[Curt]

8 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Yeah. The only reason there is hesitancy is because it is common practice, not because there is any disadvantages.

There are real disadvantages though, right?  (I’m sure there are some advantages though too)

I always thought the main disadvantage of a D playing their off side is that when you are battling around the wall, or picking pucks off the wall, you are doing it on your backhand instead of your forehand.