Annual expectations thread 2022/23: #24 Dylan Cozens

[dudacek]

Maybe because the Sabres have made 7 more 1st rounders since picking Cozens 7th overall, it’s easy to forget it’s been just over a year and a half since he first put on a Buffalo sweater, that he’s played just 120 NHL games, and that he is only 21. It only seems like he’s been around forever.

Cozens made a notable jump from his rookie season last year, tripling his goal and point totals, and increasing his average time on ice from 14:21 to 15:54 and demanding all the responsibility Don Granato would give him. He was also a positive ES possession player and the best Sabre forward when it comes to creating zone entry chances off the rush. However, he did not play much with finishers, turned the puck over too often in 1-on-1 situations and struggled to finish for himself. He ranked 6th on the team in shots, but only 17th in shooting percentage and scored just twice in his final 37 games.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=197770

It’s not remarkable, but it is worth noting that Cozens’ 21/22 production ranks in the top 100 U21 seasons of the past decade, in the same range of players like Reinhart, Suzuki, Thomas, Point, Horvat, Rantanen and Lindholm.

A favourite Sabrespace comparable for Cozens has been Ryan Kesler, as a big, fast 2-way pace-pushing centre. Kesler didn’t “arrive” until a 59-point season when he was 24. At 23, he put up a 37-point year, very similar to Cozens’ totals last year.

What do you expect from Dylan Cozens this year?

(Last year’s takes here):

 

Edited August 23, 2022 by dudacek

[dudacek]

Damn, I did not recall all that “bad training camp” or “send him down” from the start of last season.

[JohnnyK]

It seems he is fit to be the Sabres 2C or 3C with defensive responsibilities.  He will need to chip in with around 20 goals, and 50 points for the Sabres to be legit playoff contenders. 

 

Also what is a top 6 Centre?  Top 6 forward on our team or Top 6 Centre across the league?

 

  

[Weave]

I can’t get a good read on where Dylan’s projections are leading him.  2 way center is his skill set, but he might prove more valuable along the wall?  I don’t know.  And I don’t know if he is developing into a 2C or a more defensive minded 3C.

I do think the kid has a long NHL career in front of him, just not sure what role.

Tough read for me so I didn’t make a poll choice.

[bob_sauve28]

Just hope he keeps improving his skills as he keeps getting bigger and stronger. 

[Taro T]

59 minutes ago, Weave said:

I can’t get a good read on where Dylan’s projections are leading him.  2 way center is his skill set, but he might prove more valuable along the wall?  I don’t know.  And I don’t know if he is developing into a 2C or a more defensive minded 3C.

I do think the kid has a long NHL career in front of him, just not sure what role.

Tough read for me so I didn’t make a poll choice.

This.

Further complicated by the likelihood of whether he ends up 2C, 3C, or W will be dictated by how well Mittelstadt & Krebs play in TC / out of the gate and whether Granato wants to primarily run w/ well balanced lines across the board or more traditional lines.  

Figure he'll get at least 40 points but doubt he cracks 60.  But whether it's 42 or 56 will come down to his role & who his linemates are.  Expecting he'll get 2PP usage, but if he can supplant Mitts or Skinner on the top unit that would also help towards 50.

[Eleven]

Now this is a fun one.  I haven't been as excited about a Sabres forward prospect in FOREVER as I was about Cozens, the minute the Sabres drafted him.  And I'm still excited about him.  I'm expecting 50 or 60 points, a couple of good fights, a boatload of big checks, and a great season.

[Eleven]

Also--obligatory:  

[Pimlach]

I think he takes another nice step forward.   Somewhere near 18 goals and 50 points of offensive production and more solid two way play. 
 

I see him really maturing a lot in the next few years and becoming a leader on this team.  He will be 22 in February.  By age 24 he will be a very good 2way player in this league.  
 

We could use a few more forwards in this mold. 

Edited August 23, 2022 by Pimlach

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, JohnnyK said:

 

Also what is a top 6 Centre?  Top 6 forward on our team or Top 6 Centre across the league? 

A guy who will slot into the lineup on the 1st or 2nd line at centre for most of the teams in the NHL.

[Curt]

He is still so young.  We have only seen his age 19 and 20 seasons in the NHL.  For comparison, he is just 7 months older than Jack Quinn, yet we have seen so much more of him at the NHL level.

I’m expecting continued improvement over his age 21 and 22 seasons and I think by then he will have established himself as a 20+ goal 50+ point C who is strong defensively.  That’s a top-6 C.

Edited August 23, 2022 by Curt

[Sabres Fan in NS]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

Damn, I did not recall all that “bad training camp” or “send him down” from the start of last season.

There is always one whipping boy.  At least one ...

I think this season will be a coming out party of sorts.  Cozens will show vast improvment in just about every area of the game.  His true breakout seasaon will be the following season.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

59 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Also--obligatory:  

Who ??

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, Eleven said:

Now this is a fun one.  I haven't been as excited about a Sabres forward prospect in FOREVER as I was about Cozens, the minute the Sabres drafted him.  And I'm still excited about him.  I'm expecting 50 or 60 points, a couple of good fights, a boatload of big checks, and a great season.

If the current build is going to work, you're going to need a handful of the kids to become more Drury/Briere than Roy/Stafford.

For this team to be good, Dylan Cozens needs to be a 25-goal, 60-point guy who gets in the faces of opponents, makes big plays, rallies the building and creates momentum. For the Sabres to make the playoffs, it needs to happen this year.

We've seen he's got the mental makeup to be that guy. We have yet to see the physical makeup.

I roll back the tape and see how he played against his peers at 19 and say once he's playing against his peers again — it will be interesting to see how much he's bulked up this summer — the production will come.

It's a leap of faith but with this kid I'm going to make it.

Edited August 23, 2022 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

The will is clearly there, as is the speed.  We've only seen the finish and the touch intermittently though.

I think Dylan's finish will improve gradually, and his production will rise at a similar pace, although it will be accelerated somewhat with more talented linemates than he had last year.  So last year's 39ish-point pace will probably improve to 48ish points this year and perhaps 59ish points the following year?

I also think he'll cement himself as a core top-6 guy and beat out Mitts for the #2 C slot.  Cozens was 5th in ice time among forwards last year (6th if Mitts is included, although he only played 40 games).  I would expect him to maintain or improve that ranking.

 

[DarthEbriate]

Cozens is our Kessler/Cirelli with better offensive potential. We'll see improvements in the dot, improvements on the scoresheet (he plateaued last season, but will achieve more consistency), and he'll secure himself as the 2C in terms of ice time. The consistency is still coming. He'll have more defensive zone draws than Thompson and likely only PP2 time so the overall points totals won't be there. 50 points won't surprise me.

2021-22: Auston Matthews 4 gp 1-1-2, -5.  Connor McDavid 2 gp 1-2-3, +0. (One EDM game was a 6-1 Oilers victory; McDavid had a secondary PP assist in the Sabres win.)

2021-22: Cozens v. TOR and EDM: 6 gp 2-3-5, +2. 1 GWG.

That's Peca-ish right there.

[Eleven]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

Stafford

There’s no need for this kind of language.

[Doohicksie]

He'll be our next 30-goal scorer.

[HumanSlinky39]

21 goals, 33 assists, 54 pts in 2022-23.

[thewookie1]

My guess is Cozens overall will end up being something akin to a lesser ROR with Peca's tenacity but never surpassing a 2C level offensively on a consistent basis. That being said he'll be a fan favorite for his entire career and will likely be the player who "wins" us the Cup.

This year I think he ends up with 45 to 55 points with approximately 20 goals. Where his impact will be felt even more though is in his general play and ability to come up "big" in the clutch. 

 

My hope would be he embraces a center-version of Tuch's game with some additional defensive skill.

[DarthEbriate]

53 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

He'll be our next 30-goal scorer.

Olofsson (paced for 40 last season when healthy) and Quinn (Thompson's left circle on PP2) would like a word, but I do think Cozens has the potential to be a 30-50-80 guy a few times over the course of his career.

[Porous Five Hole]

I voted the “more of” category.  
I see Dylan to be a 6’ 3”, 200 pound problem for opponents. I don’t know if his offensive skills will score more than 20G per year, but he’s got the heart of a Drury (without the demanding & off-putting demeanor). 
I see the potential to be a very reliable 55-60 pt guy who you can count on. He will win more face offs that he will lose (currently at 46%-ish win percentage for his career), and the Sabres will end up depending on him in critical moments. 
 

I expect him to be a “glue” guy to the new core. From my observations of his play and personality, I expect him to continue to grow into a 2C role and flourish.  

[Doohicksie]

33 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Olofsson (paced for 40 last season when healthy) and Quinn (Thompson's left circle on PP2) would like a word, but I do think Cozens has the potential to be a 30-50-80 guy a few times over the course of his career.

I think there will be at least 4, perhaps 5, 30-goal scorers on the team this year.  Everyone is worried about goaltending, but the goalies won't have to shoulder the burden of getting the team to the playoffs.  It will be a complete team effort.  Better goaltending, stronger defense, more scoring.

[Weave]

6 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I think there will be at least 4, perhaps 5, 30-goal scorers on the team this year.  Everyone is worried about goaltending, but the goalies won't have to shoulder the burden of getting the team to the playoffs.  It will be a complete team effort.  Better goaltending, stronger defense, more scoring.

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Better days are coming.