Annual expectations thread 2022/23: #22 Jack Quinn

[Weave]

He’s going to struggle more than he dazzles. I’m expecting moments, even periods where we’ll gush, but more often than not he is going to be made to look bad.  I think he’ll see bottom line even strength minutes most games and time on PP2.

Around 30pts seems about right to me.

[Ducky]

I think he will be in a group of 5 or 6 players mentioned for the Calder until Christmas or so.

Ater Christmas, the list is probably narrowed down to 2 or maybe 3 players.

[dudacek]

I find it interesting that only about 1 in 4 think Quinn will challenge for the rookie of the year.

Should we call it the Mittelstadt effect, as in fans once bitten, or is it more something about his game?

It’s worth noting that Casey scored 30 points in 34 games in college the year before his rookie campaign. Quinn had 61 points in 45 games in the much-tougher AHL.

Production-wise, there is no comparison to how much more advanced Quinn’s game is.

[PerreaultForever]

I guess I could say how he's going to be rookie of the year and score 60 points and get a bunch of thumbs up and cup emojis but that expectation is like hoping you win the lottery. Just ain't going to happen. 

I expect him to play about 40 games in the NHL and score less than 10 goals, and less than 30 points. 

2023 he will be better and play the full year. 

2024 he will break out and come into his own (assuming he adjusts to the NHL game and bulks up a little). 

[Taro T]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

I find it interesting that only about 1 in 4 think Quinn will challenge for the rookie of the year.

Should we call it the Mittelstadt effect, as in fans once bitten, or is it more something about his game?

It’s worth noting that Casey scored 30 points in 34 games in college the year before his rookie campaign. Quinn had 61 points in 45 games in the much-tougher AHL.

Production-wise, there is no comparison to how much more advanced Quinn’s game is.

Or, you could call it the Power effect as Owen Power will be sucking most of the air out of the room for the rest of the Sabres rookie class when it comes to Calder voting.  That, and Peterka will likely have a very solid rookie campaign as well which will further dilute support for Quinn winning that award.

[Curt]

6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I guess I could say how he's going to be rookie of the year and score 60 points and get a bunch of thumbs up and cup emojis but that expectation is like hoping you win the lottery. Just ain't going to happen. 

I expect him to play about 40 games in the NHL and score less than 10 goals, and less than 30 points. 

2023 he will be better and play the full year. 

2024 he will break out and come into his own (assuming he adjusts to the NHL game and bulks up a little). 

Why do you think he will only play half a season?  Will he play so poorly that he is sent down?  Or you think he will start the season in the AHL?  Personally I think he gets a full season in the NHL.

[LGR4GM]

I suppose I should give a serious answer. 

Jack Quinn will have a couple of good games in October as I have found sometimes the hardened NHL vets take a few games to get rolling early where as kids are pumped to be in the show. As October wanes and November begins, Quinn will fade a bit. Part of it will be the "I made the NHL" adrenaline will start to subside and teams will have some tape on him to take away some of Quinn's favorite things. December is most likely when Quinn hits a bit of a wall, he might even get a game off before christmas just because he is banged up a little and needs a quick reset. Once he comes back from Christmas break he will start to round into true form. Post all star break he will be exceedingly good. My prediction would be if he gets PP time (he should) that we see him get about 15-20goals and about 15-20assists. A 40point season for Quinn would be very good and considering that a rising tide lifts all boats, I think the much improved team under Granato makes this more likely than it ever was for Mitts or even Cozens in their rookie years. 

Owen Power will be good. All year. He'll be a top 3 Calder candidate. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Or, you could call it the Power effect as Owen Power will be sucking most of the air out of the room for the rest of the Sabres rookie class when it comes to Calder voting.  That, and Peterka will likely have a very solid rookie campaign as well which will further dilute support for Quinn winning that award.

Sure, but the line was “in the conversation for”

For a forward that means about topping 20 goals, 50 points. Lucas Raymond’s 23 and 57 come to mind.

From the posts, I think people’s expectations are typically closer to 15 and 30ish.

Mittelstadt had 12 and 25.

Im curious why people are seem to be expecting more of a Mittlelstadt season than a Raymond season.

(For the record, I don’t expect Jack to be in the Calder race either, mostly because of his track record and the other wingers on the team.)

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Sure, but the line was “in the conversation for”

For a forward that means about topping 20 goals, 50 points. Lucas Raymond’s 23 and 57 come to mind.

From the posts, I think people’s expectations are typically closer to 15 and 30ish.

Mittelstadt had 12 and 25.

Im curious why people are seem to be expecting more of a Mittlelstadt season than a Raymond season.

(For the record, I don’t expect Jack to be in the Calder race either, mostly because of his track record and the other wingers on the team.)

I would expect Jack Quinn to be better than Mittelstadt's rookie year and closer to Raymond's. A 25g, 25a campaign if very plausible for Quinn. 

As to the bold, his track record? The guy just torched the AHL in a way rarely seen and will be on a team that spent last year figuring it out. He's got a great chance to be decent right off the bat as opposed to the mediocre OHL year and AHL year I think you are alluding too. Jack Quinn might drop 50pts this year as his down year and then next year be an 80pt forward. Time will tell and that we might count as a down year.

I would also add (for those thinking of Mitts) that Mitts played 1 NCAA year and then hit the NHL far before he should have. Quinn has now had 2 post draft years and 1 of them was in the AHL. NCAA hockey is good but it is a solid step below the AHL so the jump to the NHL should be less for Quinn. So you have 1 year older and 1 full AHL season versus 1 year younger and coming straight from the NCAA. 

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I suppose I should give a serious answer. 

Jack Quinn will have a couple of good games in October as I have found sometimes the hardened NHL vets take a few games to get rolling early where as kids are pumped to be in the show. As October wanes and November begins, Quinn will fade a bit. Part of it will be the "I made the NHL" adrenaline will start to subside and teams will have some tape on him to take away some of Quinn's favorite things. December is most likely when Quinn hits a bit of a wall, he might even get a game off before christmas just because he is banged up a little and needs a quick reset. Once he comes back from Christmas break he will start to round into true form. Post all star break he will be exceedingly good. My prediction would be if he gets PP time (he should) that we see him get about 15-20goals and about 15-20assists. A 40point season for Quinn would be very good and considering that a rising tide lifts all boats, I think the much improved team under Granato makes this more likely than it ever was for Mitts or even Cozens in their rookie years. 

Owen Power will be good. All year. He'll be a top 3 Calder candidate. 

I think this is pretty reasonable. He wont be an instant stud, but he will adapt. 

@PerreaultForever’s take (similar process, 3 years) underestimates how good he was in the AHL. He’s not some wide-eyed kid 2 years removed from high school hockey.

Edited August 22, 2022 by dudacek

[Taro T]

51 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Sure, but the line was “in the conversation for”

For a forward that means about topping 20 goals, 50 points. Lucas Raymond’s 23 and 57 come to mind.

From the posts, I think people’s expectations are typically closer to 15 and 30ish.

Mittelstadt had 12 and 25.

Im curious why people are seem to be expecting more of a Mittlelstadt season than a Raymond season.

(For the record, I don’t expect Jack to be in the Calder race either, mostly because of his track record and the other wingers on the team.)

Well, Kotalik was "in the conversation" for Calder and Zhitnik was "in the conversation" for the Norris and neither was a serious contender to win their respective trophy.  By "in the conversation" presumed you meant was likely a top 5 vote getter and probably top 3.  Don't see Quinn being there.  We both seem to agree usage will factor into that.  But sure, he'll be "in the conversation" at least in Buffalo.  Won't make him a legit contender though which IMHO is how "in the conversation" should be defined.  And the Q isn't just "in the conversation" it's "FIRMLY in the conversation."  Which, really don't see him in for the reasons mentioned above.

Can't speak to the impetus for others' expectations so no attempt to speak for them.  They can do that themselves.  Mine are high teens, maybe 20, & low to mid 40's as stated above.  If he's on the 1st PP rather than the 2nd, could see it bumping up but there are several guys ahead of him in the pecking order at present he'd need to pass.  Also expecting a bottom 6 role for him until injuries reshuffle & can't see him carrying a 3rd line as a rookie to 50+ points.  As stated earlier too, should deployment be different, so will expectations change.

Edited August 22, 2022 by Taro T

[Pimlach]

I can see 15 goals and maybe 35 points. I can see him starting good and finishing strong but in between he will hit a few walls, same with the entire team. 

 

Power will be our ROTY candidate but Quinn will be decent in his rookie season.  
 

[dudacek]

8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I guess I could say how he's going to be rookie of the year and score 60 points and get a bunch of thumbs up and cup emojis but that expectation is like hoping you win the lottery. Just ain't going to happen.

Not debating your main point or conclusion, I just had to point out that the bold isn’t the general truism you’re pitching it as.

Last year’s rookie of the year contenders were Raymond, Zegras Seider and Bunting. 

Zegras was a top 10 pick in his D3 season coming off a fantastic year at a lower level, just like Quinn.

Raymond was a highly skilled offensive forward who played well against men at a lower level who no one doubted could play in the NHL, they just weren’t sure if he was ready yet, kinda like Peterka.

Seider had looked great on an international stage and was generally hyped as possibly the best defenceman outside the NHL, pretty much Power.

It often doesn’t happen, but it does happen, multiple times, every year.

[French Collection]

Power and Quinn having Seider/Raymond like seasons is possible, that would move this team up into playoff contention.

 

[Norcal]

I expect New Jack to score 15 or more goals and chip in atleast 15 assists including atleast one hat trick.

I think he'll work hard at both ends of the ice, exceeding expectations on the defensive side where he'll show the most improvement.

[pi2000]

Quinn, Peterka and Krebs really should start the season in Rochester.

They still have a ways to go developmentally to be the players the Sabres want them to be.

They flash offensively, but aren't capable of defending at the NHL level just yet... be patient.

[7+6=13]

On 8/19/2022 at 8:00 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

I almost posted that myself after reading @Doohickie post.

Haha, I'm just funnin' with you man.

[Thorner]

14 hours ago, dudacek said:

I find it interesting that only about 1 in 4 think Quinn will challenge for the rookie of the year.

Should we call it the Mittelstadt effect, as in fans once bitten, or is it more something about his game?

It’s worth noting that Casey scored 30 points in 34 games in college the year before his rookie campaign. Quinn had 61 points in 45 games in the much-tougher AHL.

Production-wise, there is no comparison to how much more advanced Quinn’s game is.

Or simply an odds play.

I don’t think it needs to be representative of a mittelstadt-ish gun-shy response from the fanbase or a lack of appreciation for his game, at all. It’s merely the smart money. Also depends on how “in the convo” is defined, but looking at winners and the accompanying two finalists:

Dahlin finished 3rd in 2018/19. It’s arguable whether he was even in the conversation as EP was the runaway leader.

Before that, have to go back almost a decade to Tyler Myers big win in 2009-10 to find the next Sabre. And after that? 1987. 22 years previous when Ray Sheppard finished 2nd. Too young to remember if he was really in the convo or if Nieuwendyk ran away with it, as I was barely born.

All told, that’s a total of 3 Sabres among the 102 Calder spots in 34 nhl seasons. We may have only had one player, Myers, who was arguably in true contention during that time.

Betting Quinn won’t be is a safe play.

Edited August 22, 2022 by Thorny

[Thorner]

Had to do a Mogilny-related double check: guess he really did only catch fire year 2. 

I think I have a bit of a Mandela-effect going where Alex is concerned where I envision him a rookie during his 76 goal 1992-93 campaign, alongside local player and rookie Teemu Selanne and his 76 goal campaign. Probably compared and contrasted those seasons a lot as a kid or something.

Strong Calder year for the league during Mogilny’s first: Makarov, Modano and Roenick the finalists.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

Quinn, Peterka and Krebs really should start the season in Rochester.

They still have a ways to go developmentally to be the players the Sabres want them to be.

They flash offensively, but aren't capable of defending at the NHL level just yet... be patient.

They should not. Bold statement on Quinn and JJP considering we haven't even seen them play in the NHL for more than a hot second. 

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Had to do a Mogilny-related double check: guess he really did only catch fire year 2. 

I think I have a bit of a Mandela-effect going where Alex is concerned where I envision him a rookie during his 76 goal 1992-93 campaign, alongside local player and rookie Teemu Selanne and his 76 goal campaign. Probably compared and contrasted those seasons a lot as a kid or something.

Strong Calder year for the league during Mogilny’s first: Makarov, Modano and Roenick the finalists.

Makarov is the reason they changed the eligibility rules. He was almost 32 at the end of that season.

Edited August 22, 2022 by French Collection

[Thorner]

11 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Makarov is the reason they changed the eligibility rules. He was almost 32 at the end of that season.

Then how did 43 year old Bunting get a nom? 

- - - 

Even a guy like Ghostisbehere stealing a nomination that year was kinda a joke, IMO

Edited August 22, 2022 by Thorny

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, Curt said:

Why do you think he will only play half a season?  Will he play so poorly that he is sent down?  Or you think he will start the season in the AHL?  Personally I think he gets a full season in the NHL.

Honestly (you won't like it)? I expect the season not to go overly well and with limited ice time they will decide to send him down. 

It's possible they will just keep playing him (sort of like they did with Cozens) even if he struggles but imo that would be a mistake. 

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think this is pretty reasonable. He wont be an instant stud, but he will adapt. 

@PerreaultForever’s take (similar process, 3 years) underestimates how good he was in the AHL. He’s not some wide-eyed kid 2 years removed from high school hockey.

I'm not underestimating what he did in the AHL, I just think he will have some trouble adjusting and will likely lose his confidence (temporarily) as he finds it's not as easy up in the big leagues. Learning a proper 2 way game will also hamper him.

It's not a big deal though. Most players take several years to develop. Look at Thompson. I'd say don't expect Quinn's path to be a whole lot faster just because he was good in the AHL. 

[Thorner]

I like how the Sabres have their “josh Allen” now in Tage Thompson

”Just look at Tage Thompson -“