Who would you 'pay early' or 'overpay' before they proved/earned it?

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

There were only 4 50goal scorers in the entire league last year. So by your logic there's only 4 super star forwards. 

I think Savoie, Quinn, have the potential to be 35-40g and 45-50a level players. Let's see if they get there. 

Funny how you ignored the 90 pts part of my post, but yes there are very few superstars in the league. There were about 40 pt per game players and only 18 1.2 or better pts per game players.  Thompson was best Sabres at .87.  

By your own admission, our best two potential forwards are Quinn and Savoie (I agree by the way). I also agree let’s see if they get there before locking them up for big $.  

By the way looking back at the 05/06 Sabres, I reviewed the careers of Vanek, Pommers, Roy, Drury and Briere.  Their primes lasted 6-9 years.  Interestingly the pinnacle for 3 of the 5 occurred at 29 and then it was downhill from there.  Vanek peaked at 22 and Roy at 24.  Thompson just broke out at 24.  His next contract will start when he is 26.  A 6 year deal will should cover his prime very nicely.

[Curt]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here are some of the truths about this rebuild.

1) The true potential superstars on this team are on defense in the names of Dahlin and Power.  If we are going to commit stupid money to anyone these are the guys.

2) There are no potential superstars at forward.  Some really nice players like Thompson and potentially Mitts, Cozens, Quinn and JJP  among others.  This is actually a strength.  This team will score by rolling four lines and that means no one player like a Crosby or Kane is the key to success.

3) The true depth in our farm system is at forward.  This means that KA probably doesn't have to put to many of his big  contract eggs in the forward basket.  Maybe he can let guys like Cozens and Mitts walk (or be traded for other futures) as Kulich and Östlund develop to take their places.  These decisions will be the hardest part of cap management going forward.  IMHO none of these guys should be re-signed for more than 5 or 6 years.

4) none of this matters unless we get good goaltending, which KA has yet to invest in.

5) As I've said before, this is the last season KA gets a pass.  Once we start committing bigger $ to players like Thompson and Dahlin, we need to not only make the playoffs but have success there as well.

 

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Ok, you do even more work on prospects than I do, which guys do you project with become a 50 goal scorer? Which will become a pt a game player much less a 90 pt player?  Which will accomplish those heights consistently?  Will any of them do it by 24?  Tnt had a huge breakout year at 24 with 68 pts.  

These guys are 50-75 pts players and that isn’t a sin.  Skinner’s career high in goals is 40 and points is 63 pts, which he’s accomplished 4 times.  DR built a cup contender on a roster of those kind of forwards.

I don’t necessarily disagree with most of this, but I also think it could potentially mislead some people.

Firstly, we don’t know that there won’t be a “superstar” forward.  There are a lot of very talented guys, and no one really projects to be, but someone could get there.  I think that Savoie, Quinn and even Peterka have a shot.

But the main thing I wanted to say is that I don’t want anyone to be fooled.  If some of our forwards perform, as Thompson did last season, they are going to get paid.  Unless Thompson disappoints next season (under 60 points) he is going to get a big contract.  Maybe not 8 years, but it’s going to be in the neighborhood of $8M+ for 5+ years.  Everyone needs to be mentally prepared for that.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, Curt said:

 

I don’t necessarily disagree with most of this, but I also think it could potentially mislead some people.

Firstly, we don’t know that there won’t be a “superstar” forward.  There are a lot of very talented guys, and no one really projects to be, but someone could get there.  I think that Savoie, Quinn and even Peterka have a shot.

But the main thing I wanted to say is that I don’t want anyone to be fooled.  If some of our forwards perform, as Thompson did last season, they are going to get paid.  Unless Thompson disappoints next season (under 60 points) he is going to get a big contract.  Maybe not 8 years, but it’s going to be in the neighborhood of $8M+ for 5+ years.  Everyone needs to be mentally prepared for that.

If he puts up another 30 goal 70 pts season, I have zero issue with him getting paid.  For me the issue is mostly term but also overpayments in $ as well.  $8 mill in today NHL for a 70 pt guy is appropriate, but not 9 and not for more then 6 years.  We also can’t give out to many of these type deals.  With Skinner’s bad contract, once Dahlin, Thompson and Powers get paid, there really isn’t to much room for more big $ deals.  Those 4 plus Tuch will likely cost about $39-40 mill. That leaves approx 43.5 for the other 18 players, and Samuelsson, Mitts, Krebs, and Cozens will also need new deals during that time.  We also still don’t have any proven goaltending.  If Comrie works out you can add him to the contracts list.

[LGR4GM]

34 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Funny how you ignored the 90 pts part of my post, but yes there are very few superstars in the league. There were about 40 pt per game players and only 18 1.2 or better pts per game players.  Thompson was best Sabres at .87.  

By your own admission, our best two potential forwards are Quinn and Savoie (I agree by the way). I also agree let’s see if they get there before locking them up for big $.  

By the way looking back at the 05/06 Sabres, I reviewed the careers of Vanek, Pommers, Roy, Drury and Briere.  Their primes lasted 6-9 years.  Interestingly the pinnacle for 3 of the 5 occurred at 29 and then it was downhill from there.  Vanek peaked at 22 and Roy at 24.  Thompson just broke out at 24.  His next contract will start when he is 26.  A 6 year deal will should cover his prime very nicely.

Didn't ignore, noted that 1 of your criteria seems deliberately used because it is unlikely.

31 minutes ago, Curt said:

 

I don’t necessarily disagree with most of this, but I also think it could potentially mislead some people.

Firstly, we don’t know that there won’t be a “superstar” forward.  There are a lot of very talented guys, and no one really projects to be, but someone could get there.  I think that Savoie, Quinn and even Peterka have a shot.

But the main thing I wanted to say is that I don’t want anyone to be fooled.  If some of our forwards perform, as Thompson did last season, they are going to get paid.  Unless Thompson disappoints next season (under 60 points) he is going to get a big contract.  Maybe not 8 years, but it’s going to be in the neighborhood of $8M+ for 5+ years.  Everyone needs to be mentally prepared for that.

Outside of Dahlin, there is no current player on the Sabres that I would sign to a deal longer than 6 years. Owen Power might make the 8yr list in short order.

[dudacek]

Who actually "projects" as a 40-goal or 90-point player?

Jack Eichel did. He's six seasons in and has broke 30 goals once and 80 points once.

Were any of these guys projected to reach those heights when they were 20? Brad Marchand, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Alex Debrincat, Kiril Kaprizov, Artemi Panarin, Sebastian Aho, David Pastrnak, Chris Kreider, Jake Guentzel, Mark Stone, Jason Robertson, Max Pacioretty, Johnny Gaudreau, Claude Giroux, Nazem Kadri, Kevin Fiala...

Brayden Point had 40 points in his 21-year-old season. Dylan Cozens had 38 in his.

Yes, it's more likely that Peterka is a career 3rd-liner than the next Kucherov.

But it seems to me that studs can come "out of nowhere" nearly as often as they do from the "top 10 prospects" lists.

Edited July 22, 2022 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Who actually "projects" as a 40-goal or 90-point player?

Jack Eichel did. He's six seasons in and has broke 30 goals and once and 80 points once.

Were any of these guys projected to reach those heights when they were 20? Brad Marchand, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Alex Debrincat, Kiril Kaprizov, Artemi Panarin, Sebastian Aho, David Pastrnak, Chris Kreider, Jake Guentzel, Mark Stone, Jason Robertson, Max Pacioretty, Johnny Gaudreau, Claude Giroux, Nazem Kadri, Kevin Fiala...

Brayden Point had 40 points in his 21-year-old season. Dylan Cozens had 38 in his.

Yes, it's more likely that Peterka is a career 3rd-liner than the next Kucherov.

But it seems to me that studs can come "out of nowhere" nearly as often as they do from the "top 10 prospects" lists.

That’s not even close to mathematically true.  The majority of star forwards in the league are top 5 picks. There are always exceptions, but really not many.  Of the top 25 point scorers last season 14 (56%) were drafted in the top 4, 10 of 25 in the top 2 (40%).  Another 7 were drafted in the top 17 picks. (21 of 25 were 1st rd picks or 84%). Only 4 of the top 25 were acquired after the 1st rd and they are Josi (2nd rd), Johnny Hockey (4th rd), Kaprizov (5th) and Panarin (undrafted). 

[dudacek]

18 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That’s not even close to mathematically true.  The majority of star forwards in the league are top 5 picks. There are always exceptions, but really not many.  Of the top 25 point scorers last season 14 (56%) were drafted in the top 4, 10 of 25 in the top 2 (40%).  Another 7 were drafted in the top 17 picks. (21 of 25 were 1st rd picks or 84%). Only 4 of the top 25 were acquired after the 1st rd and they are Josi (2nd rd), Johnny Hockey (4th rd), Kaprizov (5th) and Panarin (undrafted). 

So what you're saying is 44 per cent (nearly as many) of last year's top 25 scorers weren't initially projected to be 40-goal, 90-point scorers, and come from the same ranks as Jack Quinn, Dylan Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt, Matthew Savoie, Isak Rosen and Noah Östlund, or even from the Kulich-Peterka-Thompson range?

Edited July 22, 2022 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

33 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So what you're saying is 44 per cent (nearly as many) of last year's top 25 scorers weren't initially projected to be 40-goal, 90-point scorers, and come from the same ranks as Jack Quinn, Dylan Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt, Matthew Savoie, Isak Rosen and Noah Östlund, or even from the Kulich-Peterka-Thompson range?

Actually only 3 of the top 25 came from picks 6-10, 3 from 11-15 and only 1 in the 1st rd after the 15th pick. No forwards came from the Kulich, Peterka and TNT range.
If you want to use your math 56% came from the top 4 picks and the other 44% came from the other 221 or so picks plus UFAs. Long odds but sure a star can in theory come from anywhere, just don’t count on it and don’t expect even our guys drafted with picks 7-9 to become star players.  

As I’ve said before it doesn’t matter if they don’t become stars as long as they become productive players.  Field a team with 3 lines of 50-70 point players and you’ll be a legit contender and this is the direction we are heading.  Our deep farm system should allow KA to replace some of those players with current prospects and hopefully avoid giving away to many bad long-term contracts.

Edited July 22, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Drag0nDan]

10 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

It seems to me that people are so starved for any shining light they're willing to back the brinks truck up to anybody who shows them any glimmer at all. Thompson, a year ago almost everybody proclaiming him a bust and repeating over and over how JBot got fleeced in the ROR trade. Now, after ONE good season pay him like a top flight NHL star. Just ridiculous. He has to prove it. 

I read above wanting to pay Cozens like Cirelli as a comparable. How has he done anything remotely close to what Cirelli has done??? Somebody already wanted to start dumping money at Power when he hasn't even played a season. 

You're all looking to get Skinner'd. 

 

I watched probably 50-60 games this year and my opinion is that Thompson was head and shoulders our best forward.  I think there might be a shooting regression a bit - but he definitely transformed his game offensively.  He should be at least looking at something like Sam Reinharts contract AAV - for term as he'd be 26 at signing time 4-6 years would be ideal. 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Actually only 3 of the top 25 came from picks 6-10, 3 from 11-15 and only 1 in the 1st rd after the 15th pick. No forwards came from the Kulich, Peterka and TNT range.
If you want use your math 56% came from the top 4 picks and the other 44% came from the other 221 or so picks plus UFAs. Long odds but sure a star can in theory come from anywhere, just don’t count on it and don’t expect even our guys drafted with picks 7-9 to become star players.  

As I’ve said before it doesn’t matter if they don’t become stars as long as they become productive players.  Field a team with 3 lines of 50-70 point players and you’ll be a legit contender and this is the direction we are heading.  Our deep farm system should allow KA to replace some of those players with current prospects and hopefully avoid giving away to many bad long-term contracts.

Come on man, you're so busy parsing things into bite-sized chunks, you are completely talking past my original point: which was simply the bolded. A lot of the players who do become stud scorers were not projected to be that when they were 18 or 20. I listed nearly 20 of them.

It's OK to say you agree with me. 😁

[Curt]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If he puts up another 30 goal 70 pts season, I have zero issue with him getting paid.  For me the issue is mostly term but also overpayments in $ as well.  $8 mill in today NHL for a 70 pt guy is appropriate, but not 9 and not for more then 6 years.  We also can’t give out to many of these type deals.  With Skinner’s bad contract, once Dahlin, Thompson and Powers get paid, there really isn’t to much room for more big $ deals.  Those 4 plus Tuch will likely cost about $39-40 mill. That leaves approx 43.5 for the other 18 players, and Samuelsson, Mitts, Krebs, and Cozens will also need new deals during that time.  We also still don’t have any proven goaltending.  If Comrie works out you can add him to the contracts list.

The semi-issue is that it does not even take 30 goal 70 point seasons to get a $8M contract.  Suzuki got $7.8M x 8 after a best season of 41 points in 56 games.  Norris got $8M x 8 after a best season of 55 in 66.  And both those deals bought up more RFA years.  Thompson will be only 1 year from UFA status and will have more leverage.  I just think that some might be setting unrealistic expectations regarding what some of these contracts are going to look like.

You are right though.  If Dahlin gets $9M+, Power gets $7.5M+, Thompson gets $8M+, there will only really be room to give 1-2 other forwards $8M+ deals.  It will need to be managed with care.

Edited July 22, 2022 by Curt

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, Curt said:

The semi-issue is that it does even take 30 goal 70 point seasons to get a $8M contract.  Suzuki got $7.8M x 8 after 41 points in 56 games.  Norris got $8M x 8 after 55 in 66.  And both those deals bought up more RFA years.  Thompson will be only 1 year from UFA status and will have more leverage.  I just think that some might be setting unrealistic expectations regarding what some of these contracts are going to look like.

You are right though.  If Dahlin gets $9M+, Power gets $7.5M+, Thompson gets $8M+, there will only really be room to give 1-2 other forwards $8M+ deals.  It will need to be managed with care.

People aren't paying attention if they are pitching $6 million extensions for Tage.

The AAV starts with at least a $7 this summer and goes over $8 next year with even 30 goals.

[dudacek]

Jeff Skinner — a winger who is not 6'7" 230 — got $9 million for 8 years coming off seasons of 40 and 24 goals, and he has never hit 68 points.

Next summer Tage will have arb rights and be one year away from UFA status. What happens if he scores, say 27?

Edited July 22, 2022 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

On 7/21/2022 at 1:27 PM, msw2112 said:

The Sabres have a ways to go to get there, but I hope they develop a Bills-like culture.  Most of the Bills core players WANT to stay with the team and sign reasonable, team-friendly deals to stay with the team, when they know they could make more elsewhere.  Matt Milano is a good example.  Dion Dawkins is another.  Josh Allen's deal is suddently a bargain.  Diggs has a fair deal, compared to the top of the WR market.  Assuming he recovers from injury and returns to form, Tre White's deal is very fair for a top-tier CB.  And so on.  The Bills are not low-balling these guys and offering them insultingly low deals, they are offering fair deals that pay the player well, but also don't hurt the team financially.  It's a win-win.  If the Sabres can get over the hump with this team and become a playoff participant and ultimately a Cup contender, most guys will want to stay and make take a little less to be a part of what's going on in Buffalo.

Me-first guys who hold out for every last dime and/or abandon the team for greener ($) pastures may not be the type of guys you want on your roster.  Guys who have earned it deserve to be paid, but should look at the team as a whole when negotiating their deals.  Keep in mind, I am not talking about guys like O'Reilly and Reinhart that wanted to get away from the train wreck that the Sabres were just a couple of years ago.  That's a different situation.  But if the team is doing well and on the rise, and would be desirable team to be a part of, and guys are pushing the envelope too hard on salary, that's where a team has to wonder whether it's better to cut bait and trade the guys for what they can get.

There is some truth in this, but I think your post isn't quite accurate when it comes to the Bills.  The contracts they gave Diggs, JA, and Tre were all among the top 3 or so in the NFL for their respective positions at the time they were signed.  While I agree that those players weren't looking to gouge every last possible dollar out of the team, they also weren't taking substantial discounts to stay.

I think that type of "discount" is the most that can be reasonably hoped for in the Sabres' extensions with their key players over the next few years.  In that scenario, if TT has another season in the 35-35-70 range, he won't demand to be paid $10MM-$11MM at the top end of the #1C market with Matthews, Barkov etc. (and Eichel!), but it's not realistic to expect him to be in the same $7MM tier as Barzal or Keller, either.  $8MM-$8.5MM would put him in the Zibenijad, Hertl, Duchene and Norris tier, which seems about right.  This will be expensive, but still a better deal for the Sabres than, say, what Ullmark seems to have required, which was to pay more than anyone else was willing to pay for him.

[Taro T]

43 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

There is some truth in this, but I think your post isn't quite accurate when it comes to the Bills.  The contracts they gave Diggs, JA, and Tre were all among the top 3 or so in the NFL for their respective positions at the time they were signed.  While I agree that those players weren't looking to gouge every last possible dollar out of the team, they also weren't taking substantial discounts to stay.

I think that type of "discount" is the most that can be reasonably hoped for in the Sabres' extensions with their key players over the next few years.  In that scenario, if TT has another season in the 35-35-70 range, he won't demand to be paid $10MM-$11MM at the top end of the #1C market with Matthews, Barkov etc. (and Eichel!), but it's not realistic to expect him to be in the same $7MM tier as Barzal or Keller, either.  $8MM-$8.5MM would put him in the Zibenijad, Hertl, Duchene and Norris tier, which seems about right.  This will be expensive, but still a better deal for the Sabres than, say, what Ullmark seems to have required, which was to pay more than anyone else was willing to pay for him.

It also will be interesting to see if the Sabres getting him on a very low end deal this last time (but which many thought was an overpayment) causes there to be a slight goosing of the AAV up beyond what might've been expected.   Hoping it doesn't.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

It also will be interesting to see if the Sabres getting him on a very low end deal this last time (but which many thought was an overpayment) causes there to be a slight goosing of the AAV up beyond what might've been expected.   Hoping it doesn't.

I can’t imagine why it would.  I’d be very surprised if that was a negotiation point.

[Thorner]

On 7/21/2022 at 2:23 PM, sweetlou said:

I would extend Cozens this off season for 6 years at $4.5AAV.  This locks him up for an overpayment for the next two years but an underpayment for years 3-6.  It would take him to UFA where he canteen decide what is best for his future.  I feel he can develop into a Cirelli type player.  I believe Cirelli issuing to be over payed at his $6.25 million extension.

Thompson I would wait til around Christmas to offer any extension.  If he has a good start and last year was not a fluke then you also extend him for 6 years at an AAV of $7 million. 

 

Cozens was who my mind went to as well. Potentially can lock him up to a Scheifele-esque bargain for these prime years. 

I’m definitely not going 8x8 with Thompson yet. He’s going to have to run that season back a little, I’ll sacrifice the risk of the $ going up a little bit by waiting, considering the cap we have to play with and the fact he’d need to WANT to be here, anyways? Presumably amicable terms can be met under that scenario 

[Thorner]

23 hours ago, Curt said:

I kind of hate to point it out, but Chicago wasn’t able to win any Cups after extending Kane, Toews, and Seabrook to their big 8 year deals.

An excellent point. It’s a factor in why we shouldn’t be so keen to chip away at the primes of our guys like Dahlin through endless evaluation years. You win when you have good players not breaking bank, even on ELCs

[Thorner]

17 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here are some of the truths about this rebuild.

1) The true potential superstars on this team are on defense in the names of Dahlin and Power.  If we are going to commit stupid money to anyone these are the guys.

2) There are no potential superstars at forward.  Some really nice players like Thompson and potentially Mitts, Cozens, Quinn and JJP  among others.  This is actually a strength.  This team will score by rolling four lines and that means no one player like a Crosby or Kane is the key to success.

3) The true depth in our farm system is at forward.  This means that KA probably doesn't have to put to many of his big  contract eggs in the forward basket.  Maybe he can let guys like Cozens and Mitts walk (or be traded for other futures) as Kulich and Östlund develop to take their places.  These decisions will be the hardest part of cap management going forward.  IMHO none of these guys should be re-signed for more than 5 or 6 years.

4) none of this matters unless we get good goaltending, which KA has yet to invest in.

5) As I've said before, this is the last season KA gets a pass.  Once we start committing bigger $ to players like Thompson and Dahlin, we need to not only make the playoffs but have success there as well.

I see Nashville a bit when I see the future of this team. Depth at F, but the clear strength funnelled through the defence, the comparison holding up to and including envisioning Levi as our Saros. 

If Savoie busts out or something maybe we eclipse their forwards, and are really in business 

[Curt]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Cozens was who my mind went to as well. Potentially can lock him up to a Scheifele-esque bargain for these prime years. 

I’m definitely not going 8x8 with Thompson yet. He’s going to have to run that season back a little, I’ll sacrifice the risk of the $ going up a little bit by waiting, considering the cap we have to play with and the fact he’d need to WANT to be here, anyways? Presumably amicable terms can be met under that scenario 

I’m inclined to agree.  If Thompson puts up another season of ~35 goals, ~70 points, the contract should still be no more than $8.75M AAV maximum.

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

An excellent point. It’s a factor in why we shouldn’t be so keen to chip away at the primes of our guys like Dahlin through endless evaluation years. You win when you have good players not breaking bank, even on ELCs

Honestly, the takeaway might be that you should either (1) lock up your good players to long term value contracts BEFORE they break out, or if you can’t do that (2) bridge your good players as long as possible to delay paying them absolute full value as long as you can.

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, Curt said:

I’m inclined to agree.  If Thompson puts up another season of ~35 goals, ~70 points, the contract should still be no more than $8.75M AAV maximum.

Honestly, the takeaway might be that you should either (1) lock up your good players to long term value contracts BEFORE they break out, or if you can’t do that (2) bridge your good players as long as possible to delay paying them absolute full value as long as you can.

Right, so an extra million or so? I’ll risk that 1 million per loss considering we’d be wagering a several potential million per year overpay, if we reasonably consider the directions Thompson may go. 

I think it’s more likely he doesn’t have a huge regression, but the betting terms aren’t worth it right now 

Not willing to risk the possible overpay we’d see against the likes of the ability to gain ~ one million 

Edited July 22, 2022 by Thorny

[Thorner]

If Thompson repeats and we need to fork over 8.75 instead of 7.75 or whatever, I’m going to be too ecstatic at the player revealed to be on our hands to lament that relatively small $ loss 

File it under good problems. I’d be happier to see a bit more of the patience we’ve seen from Adams, for now 

[Thorner]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Ok, you do even more work on prospects than I do, which guys do you project with become a 50 goal scorer? Which will become a pt a game player much less a 90 pt player?  Which will accomplish those heights consistently?  Will any of them do it by 24?  Tnt had a huge breakout year at 24 with 68 pts.  

These guys are 50-75 pts players and that isn’t a sin.  Skinner’s career high in goals is 40 and points is 63 pts, which he’s accomplished 4 times.  DR built a cup contender on a roster of those kind of forwards.

It should be noted that regardless of Briere’s net career output, the “Cup contending Sabres team” had a top-10 level league scorer output from Briere, those years. We may not need a player who can do it every year, but anyone that could “go off’ for a couple season of point-per-game + (Briere had 95 in 06/07) would be a huge help 

Edited July 22, 2022 by Thorny

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, Curt said:

The semi-issue is that it does not even take 30 goal 70 point seasons to get a $8M contract.  Suzuki got $7.8M x 8 after a best season of 41 points in 56 games.  Norris got $8M x 8 after a best season of 55 in 66.  And both those deals bought up more RFA years.  Thompson will be only 1 year from UFA status and will have more leverage.  I just think that some might be setting unrealistic expectations regarding what some of these contracts are going to look like.

You are right though.  If Dahlin gets $9M+, Power gets $7.5M+, Thompson gets $8M+, there will only really be room to give 1-2 other forwards $8M+ deals.  It will need to be managed with care.

This is very true, and will be one of the big problems on a team filled with young players maturing at or around the same time. They won't be able to work with entry level and bridge deals forever. It's a good dilemma though. If we have too many players that need to be paid, it might also mean that the team is finally pretty good. 

[Thorner]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

Who actually "projects" as a 40-goal or 90-point player?

Jack Eichel did. He's six seasons in and has broke 30 goals once and 80 points once.

Were any of these guys projected to reach those heights when they were 20? Brad Marchand, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Alex Debrincat, Kiril Kaprizov, Artemi Panarin, Sebastian Aho, David Pastrnak, Chris Kreider, Jake Guentzel, Mark Stone, Jason Robertson, Max Pacioretty, Johnny Gaudreau, Claude Giroux, Nazem Kadri, Kevin Fiala...

Brayden Point had 40 points in his 21-year-old season. Dylan Cozens had 38 in his.

Yes, it's more likely that Peterka is a career 3rd-liner than the next Kucherov.

But it seems to me that studs can come "out of nowhere" nearly as often as they do from the "top 10 prospects" lists.

Why did we afford Eichel the (very logical) “18 year olds don’t usually become stars immediately” caveat when he’s “ours”, and now pretend like he should have been producing at a star’s pace those years, now that he’s gone? It’s deliberate bending of the numbers and it’s super rankling. 

His first 3 seasons he started at 18, 19, 20. On his ELC. Plenty prospects aren’t even in the NHL yet. He finished 11th overall in league ppg year 2, btw. “6 years in”.. I mean the first 3 years, 80 would not even be a reasonable ask! 

Once he actually started to get paid, (We ARE talking “projection” right? What a player WOULD get to, presumably after breaking bank?) he hit 82 points immediately, finished with 78 in 68 (Covid shut the league down (literally can’t fault him for that) - that’s a *90* point season, actually) and an 8th in mvp voting. Then the following year, he got severely injured. 

So off his ELC he went 2 for 2 in hitting point per game or above, tallying 160 points, before getting hurt. I don’t want to start up a big Eichel thing, but the big concern there is injuries. Get into character if you want. But we can’t sit here and construe it like he didn’t become an 80 point guy, right on time.

We can make a point that, through external factors, you never know what you will get: no guarantees. But even then the point is stretched as we can’t reasonably consider the first 3 seasons as “missing” 80. Starting the clock when he actually started making money, he went 2/3, and the exception was injury. That probably gives a better breakdown of what one might expect, production wise, and whether he was statistically living up to the “projection”. Time will tell if that solid 2/3 pace continues or if injuries become more, or less, of a factor. 

Edited July 22, 2022 by Thorny