Who would you 'pay early' or 'overpay' before they proved/earned it?

[Weave]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

McDavid and Crosby are superstars that have stayed healthy.  The Blackhawks gave Kane, Toews, Keith and Seabrook huge longterm deals. Only Kane’s has worked.  Shea Weber’s deal is a failure.  The list is endless. 

Drury and Briere’s contracts when they left the Sabres failed miserably. Drury was paid an average 7 mill a year for 5 years and last only 3.5 years with the Rags. His points we 56, 58, 32 and then 5.  You consider that a success?
 

Most long term deals especially if they last past 34 deteriorate quickly.  Locking kids up also often don’t work.  How is Kotkaniemi’s deal working for the Canes?

I’m not saying don’t give deals to some of our key kids. Dahlin and Power are the best bets, but again 5-6 years max.

8 year deals are the price of having superstars. Those stars aren’t going to accept shorter deals.  If you don’t want to offer long term deals then you have to accept mediocre to decently good players as the trade off.

[Curt]

It’s an interesting philosophical question.  What’s your risk tolerance?

It’s not really a yes/no question though.  The real questions are, How much?  How long?

Thompson, I wouldn’t extend him this offseason for more than $7.5M on a long term deal.  If it goes to next offseason and he repeats with 35+ goals and 65+ points you are probably looking at a contract over $8M.  If you don’t believe me, just go look at the contracts that Nick Suzuki, Josh Norris, and Robert Thomas recently signed after just one season producing at a 1st line type level.

Cozens, I wouldn’t extend for more than $5M on a long term deal.  It would be really good value at anything less than that.  If Cozens “breaks out” next season for 20+ goals and 50+ points you are probably looking at a $6M+ contract.  Guys who signed relevant comparable contracts are Dvorak, Kotkaniemi, Eriksson Ek, Schmaltz, Cirelli, Hischier.

Samuelsson, I doubt anyone would consider giving him an early long term extension, but personally, I’d sign him long term for anything $2.5M or less.

[Curt]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

McDavid and Crosby are superstars that have stayed healthy.  The Blackhawks gave Kane, Toews, Keith and Seabrook huge longterm deals. Only Kane’s has worked.  Shea Weber’s deal is a failure.  The list is endless. 

Drury and Briere’s contracts when they left the Sabres failed miserably. Drury was paid an average 7 mill a year for 5 years and last only 3.5 years with the Rags. His points we 56, 58, 32 and then 5.  You consider that a success?
 

Most long term deals especially if they last past 34 deteriorate quickly.  Locking kids up also often don’t work.  How is Kotkaniemi’s deal working for the Canes?

I’m not saying don’t give deals to some of our key kids. Dahlin and Power are the best bets, but again 5-6 years max.

How is Kotkaniemi’s deal working out?  He just signed it a few months ago and hasn’t played a single game under it.  So, we don’t know.  

[PromoTheRobot]

4 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Of the younger guys on this team, who would you like to see the Sabres pay earler than they have to, or overpay 'right now', so it puts them in a better position in the future?

The reason I ask is this. It seems like you can assure yourself of having a 'good' team by not taking any chances with contracts, but to be a great/cup winning team it helps drastically if you have guys in their prime making less than their market value, basically on good contracts.

So no players are going to be wanting to make less than they are worth, but the way you CAN do that is, when you have a bunch of young guys and you have a lot of cap room, you give money to players earlier than the earned/proved it on a long term deal, so they get paid more NOW when you have cap room but you have a better deal later when cap room is tight.

So, if when the Sabres get good, you want them to have guys playing the back half of their deals that are good deals for the team, who do you want that to be?  Who do you think you could give a long term deal to now (or in the next 12 months) that will be a higher dollar value than what they are worth now but it will pay off on the back end of a long term deal? (and if you want, give an example of what that deal would look like to you)

Love goes both ways.  If you're preaching commitment and loyalty, it's a good idea to show some back.  

[msw2112]

14 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

McDavid and Crosby are superstars that have stayed healthy.  The Blackhawks gave Kane, Toews, Keith and Seabrook huge longterm deals. Only Kane’s has worked.  Shea Weber’s deal is a failure.  The list is endless. 

Drury and Briere’s contracts when they left the Sabres failed miserably. Drury was paid an average 7 mill a year for 5 years and last only 3.5 years with the Rags. His points we 56, 58, 32 and then 5.  You consider that a success?
 

Most long term deals especially if they last past 34 deteriorate quickly.  Locking kids up also often don’t work.  How is Kotkaniemi’s deal working for the Canes?

I’m not saying don’t give deals to some of our key kids. Dahlin and Power are the best bets, but again 5-6 years max.

The Blackhawks won 3 Stanley Cups, so I would say that the Kane, Toews, Keith and Seabrook deals worked out OK for them.  Yes, they are now rebuilding, but with 3 Cups, who cares?  And had the Sabres extended Drury and Briere properly, perhaps they, too would have won a Cup.  The key is to extend guys before they become UFAs and have all the leverage.  Skinner was a UFA coming off a 40-goal season, after previously having been a top 10 pick, Rookie of the Year and multiple 30+ goal seasons.  This board tends to ignore the fact that while Skinner may not be a $9M player, he is a $6M-$7M player - at least pre- and post-Kreuger - so his deal is not a complete waste.  An overpay by a (then) crap team with enough cap space that needed to retain a star player, yes, but not that outrageous when looked at in full context.  Okposo is another guy who was an overpay, but sometimes teams need to overpay to attract top free agents to smaller markets and/or less-competitive teams.  The current version of Okposo is actually playing close to his contract with 20+ goals, and lots of leadership and intangibles.  He's a big reason the team has come together the way it has.

So, yes, I think the Sabres need to extend some of the young, talented guys, even if it invovles some level of risk.  By signing them early, if the guys pan out, the deals will be bargains down the road.  No doubt, some won't work out as well as others.

One more overlooked point is that NOW is a good time to sign these deals.  The Sabres currently have a lot of cap space and with the ESPN deal and the "end" of the pandemic, the NHL is likely to gain quite a bit in popularity and make a lot more money in the next few years.  The salary cap is likely to go up a lot, which will result in much more lucrative deals for players.  Better to sign them now before the cap increases and the cost of labor increases with it.

[Curt]

12 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

The Blackhawks won 3 Stanley Cups, so I would say that the Kane, Toews, Keith and Seabrook deals worked out OK for them.  Yes, they are now rebuilding, but with 3 Cups, who cares?  And had the Sabres extended Drury and Briere properly, perhaps they, too would have won a Cup.  The key is to extend guys before they become UFAs and have all the leverage.  Skinner was a UFA coming off a 40-goal season, after previously having been a top 10 pick, Rookie of the Year and multiple 30+ goal seasons.  This board tends to ignore the fact that while Skinner may not be a $9M player, he is a $6M-$7M player - at least pre- and post-Kreuger - so his deal is not a complete waste.  An overpay by a (then) crap team with enough cap space that needed to retain a star player, yes, but not that outrageous when looked at in full context.  Okposo is another guy who was an overpay, but sometimes teams need to overpay to attract top free agents to smaller markets and/or less-competitive teams.  The current version of Okposo is actually playing close to his contract with 20+ goals, and lots of leadership and intangibles.  He's a big reason the team has come together the way it has.

So, yes, I think the Sabres need to extend some of the young, talented guys, even if it invovles some level of risk.  By signing them early, if the guys pan out, the deals will be bargains down the road.  No doubt, some won't work out as well as others.

One more overlooked point is that NOW is a good time to sign these deals.  The Sabres currently have a lot of cap space and with the ESPN deal and the "end" of the pandemic, the NHL is likely to gain quite a bit in popularity and make a lot more money in the next few years.  The salary cap is likely to go up a lot, which will result in much more lucrative deals for players.  Better to sign them now before the cap increases and the cost of labor increases with it.

I kind of hate to point it out, but Chicago wasn’t able to win any Cups after extending Kane, Toews, and Seabrook to their big 8 year deals.

Edited July 21, 2022 by Curt

[irregularly irregular]

This the spot in the road where I worry about KA and his not having experience in a NHL office. I'm really happy that he has acquired that experience in Karmanos. Getting the team out of the gutter is easy compared to getting and keeping it on the highway for a sustained run at multiple cups.

[msw2112]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

I kind of hate to point it out, but Chicago wasn’t able to win any Cups after extending Kane, Toews, and Seabrook to their big 8 year deals.

I thought that might be true when I wrote my post, but didn't have the time to fact-check.  No need to hate yourself or sit in the corner in shame for pointing out facts.  Consider the big contracts payment for past services rendered.

If the Sabres win the Cup this year (or any year), then pay its stars, and don't win another one, I'll still be extremely happy, as will the majority of the fans and the franchise itself.  And if they win THREE?  It's almost unimaginable.

Edited July 21, 2022 by msw2112

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, msw2112 said:

The Blackhawks won 3 Stanley Cups, so I would say that the Kane, Toews, Keith and Seabrook deals worked out OK for them.  Yes, they are now rebuilding, but with 3 Cups, who cares?  And had the Sabres extended Drury and Briere properly, perhaps they, too would have won a Cup.  The key is to extend guys before they become UFAs and have all the leverage.  Skinner was a UFA coming off a 40-goal season, after previously having been a top 10 pick, Rookie of the Year and multiple 30+ goal seasons.  This board tends to ignore the fact that while Skinner may not be a $9M player, he is a $6M-$7M player - at least pre- and post-Kreuger - so his deal is not a complete waste.  An overpay by a (then) crap team with enough cap space that needed to retain a star player, yes, but not that outrageous when looked at in full context.  Okposo is another guy who was an overpay, but sometimes teams need to overpay to attract top free agents to smaller markets and/or less-competitive teams.  The current version of Okposo is actually playing close to his contract with 20+ goals, and lots of leadership and intangibles.  He's a big reason the team has come together the way it has.

So, yes, I think the Sabres need to extend some of the young, talented guys, even if it invovles some level of risk.  By signing them early, if the guys pan out, the deals will be bargains down the road.  No doubt, some won't work out as well as others.

One more overlooked point is that NOW is a good time to sign these deals.  The Sabres currently have a lot of cap space and with the ESPN deal and the "end" of the pandemic, the NHL is likely to gain quite a bit in popularity and make a lot more money in the next few years.  The salary cap is likely to go up a lot, which will result in much more lucrative deals for players.  Better to sign them now before the cap increases and the cost of labor increases with it.

The Blackhawks haven’t won a Cup since extending Kane and Toews. Sorry.  

[RangerDave]

I've often wondered if it is possible to have every (or most) players play on incentive laden contracts?  That way, the player doesn't get underpaid for a big year and the team doesn't get fleeced after signing a one-year wonder.  Seems fair to both sides.

It may be difficult to quantify every players contributions (things like leadership, taking faceoffs in certain zones, playing against top competition, etc.)  But if you give a player a base salary which would be negotiated by both sides to account for those things and then pay the player extra for goals, assists, +/-, FO%, and all those other fancy stats, could that work?   And, of course, what position they play (W, C, D, G).  Maybe even throw in some team incentives like winning percentage, goals against, goals for, etc.  Can pay be earned on metrics?  It happens in other professions like salespeople.

Crazy idea, I know, but I've often wondered if it could work.

[Curt]

1 minute ago, RangerDave said:

I've often wondered if it is possible to have every (or most) players play on incentive laden contracts?  That way, the player doesn't get underpaid for a big year and the team doesn't get fleeced after signing a one-year wonder.  Seems fair to both sides.

It may be difficult to quantify every players contributions (things like leadership, taking faceoffs in certain zones, playing against top competition, etc.)  But if you give a player a base salary which would be negotiated by both sides to account for those things and then pay the player extra for goals, assists, +/-, FO%, and all those other fancy stats, could that work?   And, of course, what position they play (W, C, D, G).  Maybe even throw in some team incentives like winning percentage, goals against, goals for, etc.  Can pay be earned on metrics?  It happens in other professions like salespeople.

Crazy idea, I know, but I've often wondered if it could work.

The NHL CBA doesn’t allow for contract incentives.

[Taro T]

10 minutes ago, RangerDave said:

I've often wondered if it is possible to have every (or most) players play on incentive laden contracts?  That way, the player doesn't get underpaid for a big year and the team doesn't get fleeced after signing a one-year wonder.  Seems fair to both sides.

It may be difficult to quantify every players contributions (things like leadership, taking faceoffs in certain zones, playing against top competition, etc.)  But if you give a player a base salary which would be negotiated by both sides to account for those things and then pay the player extra for goals, assists, +/-, FO%, and all those other fancy stats, could that work?   And, of course, what position they play (W, C, D, G).  Maybe even throw in some team incentives like winning percentage, goals against, goals for, etc.  Can pay be earned on metrics?  It happens in other professions like salespeople.

Crazy idea, I know, but I've often wondered if it could work.

 

7 minutes ago, Curt said:

The NHL CBA doesn’t allow for contract incentives.

This.

Only players on ELCs & those that are ancient or coming off serious injuries willing to play on 1 year deals can have team paid incentive bonuses.

EVERYBODY ELSE gets paid exactly what they & a team agree that he'll be paid when he signs his contract.  So, for all intents & purposes incentive laden contracts are verboten.

[msw2112]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The Blackhawks haven’t won a Cup since extending Kane and Toews. Sorry.  

No need to be sorry for stating facts.  As I stated above, consider the contracts compensation for services rendered (THREE Cups).  Those players earned those contracts, whether they came before or after winning their 3 Cups.  We can only hope and wish that the Sabres would dole out large, long-term extensions to its top players after winning 3 Cups.

[RangerDave]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

 

This.

Only players on ELCs & those that are ancient or coming off serious injuries willing to play on 1 year deals can have team paid incentive bonuses.

EVERYBODY ELSE gets paid exactly what they & a team agree that he'll be paid when he signs his contract.  So, for all intents & purposes incentive laden contracts are verboten.

True, but the CBA ends and some point.  At that point, everything can change.  My question is:  would this work?  What are the downfalls?

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, RangerDave said:

True, but the CBA ends and some point.  At that point, everything can change.  My question is:  would this work?  What are the downfalls?

OK, the salary cap came in with the 2005 CBA and that was when performance bonuses* &/or other forms of renegotiating / altering a contract were eliminated for all intents & purposes.  The CBA was renewed in 2013 and this change brought with it no reintroduction of performance  bonuses &/or other forms of renegotiating contracts.  The CBA was essentially renewed via the MOU in 2020 and this change brought with it no reintroduction of performance bonuses &/or other forms of renegotiating contracts.

We're now 17 years into this "experiment."  Pretty sure when the MOU expires we won't see the reintroduction of performance bonuses &/ or other forms or renegotiating/ altering a contract.  😉

And the league is adamant that there not be renegotiations/ changes to contracts such as performance bonuses & other inducers of variability because it makes determining exactly what players are owed and whether teams are staying compliant with the cap a much more complex system to audit & maintain.  The players get (assuming they pay the owners back what they're owed from the overpayment to the players from the lockdowns) exactly 50% of HRR.  If the leaguewide nominal player salaries are over 50% every player loses a prorated portion of their escrow to drop it to 50%.  If nominal salaries sum to under 50%, they all get a prorated bonus check.  Altering individual player salaries make those calculations way more complex.  They also significantly increase the likelihood a team ends up above or below the allowable salary range.

 

 

* with limited exceptions as discussed upthread

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here are some of the truths about this rebuild.

1) The true potential superstars on this team are on defense in the names of Dahlin and Power.  If we are going to commit stupid money to anyone these are the guys.

2) There are no potential superstars at forward.  Some really nice players like Thompson and potentially Mitts, Cozens, Quinn and JJP  among others.  This is actually a strength.  This team will score by rolling four lines and that means no one player like a Crosby or Kane is the key to success.

3) The true depth in our farm system is at forward.  This means that KA probably doesn't have to put to many of his big  contract eggs in the forward basket.  Maybe he can let guys like Cozens and Mitts walk (or be traded for other futures) as Kulich and Östlund develop to take their places.  These decisions will be the hardest part of cap management going forward.  IMHO none of these guys should be re-signed for more than 5 or 6 years.

4) none of this matters unless we get good goaltending, which KA has yet to invest in.

5) As I've said before, this is the last season KA gets a pass.  Once we start committing bigger $ to players like Thompson and Dahlin, we need to not only make the playoffs but have success there as well.

Edited July 22, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[PerreaultForever]

It seems to me that people are so starved for any shining light they're willing to back the brinks truck up to anybody who shows them any glimmer at all. Thompson, a year ago almost everybody proclaiming him a bust and repeating over and over how JBot got fleeced in the ROR trade. Now, after ONE good season pay him like a top flight NHL star. Just ridiculous. He has to prove it. 

I read above wanting to pay Cozens like Cirelli as a comparable. How has he done anything remotely close to what Cirelli has done??? Somebody already wanted to start dumping money at Power when he hasn't even played a season. 

You're all looking to get Skinner'd. 

 

[msw2112]

It's betting on futures.  I agree that Cozens has not fully emerged yet (I think he will in time), but I don't think Thompson is a fluke.  He had enough skill to be a first round draft pick and he has size that you cannot teach.  Many taller guys like that took a few years to grow into the bodies and their games.  Chara comes to mind.  Of course, Tyler Myers was rookie of the year and regressed, so there are always opposite examples, but I believe that Thompson is legit and the longer they wait to pay him, the more he's going to cost.

[Weave]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here are some of the truths about this rebuild.

1) The true potential superstars on this team are on defense in the names of Dahlin and Power.  If we are going to commit stupid money to anyone these are the guys.

2) There are no potential superstars at forward.  Some really nice players like Thompson and potentially Mitts, Cozens, Quinn and JJP  among others.  This is actually a strength.  This team will score by rolling four lines and that means no one player like a Crosby or Kane is the key to success.

3) The true depth in our farm system is at forward.  This means that KA probably doesn't have to put to many of his big  contract eggs in the forward basket.  Maybe he can let guys like Cozens and Mitts walk (or be traded for other futures) as Kulich and Östlund develop to take their places.  These decisions will be the hardest part of cap management going forward.  IMHO none of these guys should be re-signed for more than 5 or 6 years.

4) none of this matters unless we get good goaltending, which KA has yet to invest in.

5) As I've said before, this is the last season KA gets a pass.  Once we start committing bigger $ to players like Thompson and Dahlin, we need to not only make the playoffs but have success there as well.

This seems most accurate to me.

It may make sense to lock up some of these kids before they break out, but not for big numbers, and not for 7+ years.  They are fairly plug and play at forward.

[LGR4GM]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here are some of the truths about this rebuild.

1) The true potential superstars on this team are on defense in the names of Dahlin and Power.  If we are going to commit stupid money to anyone these are the guys.

2) There are no potential superstars at forward.  Some really nice players like Thompson and potentially Mitts, Cozens, Quinn and JJP  among others.  This is actually a strength.  This team will score by rolling four lines and that means no one player like a Crosby or Kane is the key to success.

That's pretty bold to say considering the number of forwards they have in the system. Quinn hasn't even played an nhl game yet. Neither have JJP, Savoie, Östlund, or Kulich.

Edited July 22, 2022 by LGR4GM

[Taro T]

23 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That's pretty bold to say considering the number of forwards they have in the system. Quinn hasn't even played an nhl game yet. Neither have JJP, Savoie, Östlund, or Kulich.

Close.  Quinn & Peterka have 2 NHL games each on their resumes.  And Quinn is a CAREER PPG player.  😉

 

[LGR4GM]

40 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Close.  Quinn & Peterka have 2 NHL games each on their resumes.  And Quinn is a CAREER PPG player.  😉

 

Oh yea, I forgot about those games during the injury hell of last season. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

That's pretty bold to say considering the number of forwards they have in the system. Quinn hasn't even played an nhl game yet. Neither have JJP, Savoie, Östlund, or Kulich.

Ok, you do even more work on prospects than I do, which guys do you project with become a 50 goal scorer? Which will become a pt a game player much less a 90 pt player?  Which will accomplish those heights consistently?  Will any of them do it by 24?  Tnt had a huge breakout year at 24 with 68 pts.  

These guys are 50-75 pts players and that isn’t a sin.  Skinner’s career high in goals is 40 and points is 63 pts, which he’s accomplished 4 times.  DR built a cup contender on a roster of those kind of forwards.

Edited July 22, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Ok, you do even more work on prospects than I do, which guys do you project with become a 50 goal scorer? Which will become a pt a game player much less a 90 pt player?  Which will accomplish those heights consistently?  Will any of them do it by 24?  Tnt had a huge breakout year at 24 with 68 pts.  

These guys are 50-75 pts players and that isn’t a sin.  Skinner’s career high in goals is 40 and points is 63 pts, which he’s accomplished 4 times.  DR built a cup contender on a roster of those kind of forwards.

There were only 4 50goal scorers in the entire league last year. So by your logic there's only 4 super star forwards. 

I think Savoie, Quinn, have the potential to be 35-40g and 45-50a level players. Let's see if they get there. 

[JustOneParade]

15 hours ago, msw2112 said:

The Blackhawks won 3 Stanley Cups, so I would say that the Kane, Toews, Keith and Seabrook deals worked out OK for them.  Yes, they are now rebuilding, but with 3 Cups, who cares?  And had the Sabres extended Drury and Briere properly, perhaps they, too would have won a Cup.  The key is to extend guys before they become UFAs and have all the leverage.  Skinner was a UFA coming off a 40-goal season, after previously having been a top 10 pick, Rookie of the Year and multiple 30+ goal seasons.  This board tends to ignore the fact that while Skinner may not be a $9M player, he is a $6M-$7M player - at least pre- and post-Kreuger - so his deal is not a complete waste.  An overpay by a (then) crap team with enough cap space that needed to retain a star player, yes, but not that outrageous when looked at in full context.  Okposo is another guy who was an overpay, but sometimes teams need to overpay to attract top free agents to smaller markets and/or less-competitive teams.  The current version of Okposo is actually playing close to his contract with 20+ goals, and lots of leadership and intangibles.  He's a big reason the team has come together the way it has.

So, yes, I think the Sabres need to extend some of the young, talented guys, even if it invovles some level of risk.  By signing them early, if the guys pan out, the deals will be bargains down the road.  No doubt, some won't work out as well as others.

One more overlooked point is that NOW is a good time to sign these deals.  The Sabres currently have a lot of cap space and with the ESPN deal and the "end" of the pandemic, the NHL is likely to gain quite a bit in popularity and make a lot more money in the next few years.  The salary cap is likely to go up a lot, which will result in much more lucrative deals for players.  Better to sign them now before the cap increases and the cost of labor increases with it.

@msw2112 I agree with the general premise of this post. I do wonder about the bolded however. How much influence do past championships have on the present psyche of fans? (We can only speculate, unfortunately). Do they look at their teams and say 'Yeah, we really suck. But we won a cup back when I was 6 years old so its OK'? Would love to have that conversation with Blackhawk fans, Canadiens fans, etc, etc.