Who would you 'pay early' or 'overpay' before they proved/earned it?

[mjd1001]

Of the younger guys on this team, who would you like to see the Sabres pay earler than they have to, or overpay 'right now', so it puts them in a better position in the future?

The reason I ask is this. It seems like you can assure yourself of having a 'good' team by not taking any chances with contracts, but to be a great/cup winning team it helps drastically if you have guys in their prime making less than their market value, basically on good contracts.

So no players are going to be wanting to make less than they are worth, but the way you CAN do that is, when you have a bunch of young guys and you have a lot of cap room, you give money to players earlier than the earned/proved it on a long term deal, so they get paid more NOW when you have cap room but you have a better deal later when cap room is tight.

So, if when the Sabres get good, you want them to have guys playing the back half of their deals that are good deals for the team, who do you want that to be?  Who do you think you could give a long term deal to now (or in the next 12 months) that will be a higher dollar value than what they are worth now but it will pay off on the back end of a long term deal? (and if you want, give an example of what that deal would look like to you)

[Eleven]

Thompson, definitely.  Get it done now at 8 x 6.5  or 8 x 7 if they can.  Can't hit if you don't swing...

Power maybe, depending on what we see.  He very well could be a guy that I would offer 8 years, and not a bridge deal.

Dahlin, if he wants to end his bridge deal early.

Edited July 21, 2022 by Eleven

[Doohicksie]

It's all a gamble.  The team management has to look at the benefits and risks for each player, and trade those against those of all the other players.  If you guess right, more or less, you're in good shape.  If you don't the team can crash and burn.

[Weave]

Part of being a good GM is predicting future performance and offering contracts accordingly.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

18 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Thompson, definitely.  Get it done now at 8 x 6.5  or 8 x 7 if they can.  Can't hit if you don't swing...

Power maybe, depending on what we see.  He very well could be a guy that I would offer 8 years, and not a bridge deal.

Dahlin, if he wants to end his bridge deal early.

This is the correct answer.

Dahlin and Power will be up for new contracts in 2 years.  I can see Dahlin signing 8 x $10 and Power 8 x $8.

How could Dahlin end his bridge deal early?

Thompson should be signed to an 8 x $6.5 to $7 deal as soon as possible.  I think he is under contract for only this coming season, so can't he sign an extension now?

Edited July 21, 2022 by Sabres Fan in NS
to many letters is just as not goodly as to few ...

[Eleven]

2 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

This is the correct answer.

Dahlin and Power will be up for new contracts in 2 years.  I can see Dahlin signing 8 x $10 and Power 8 x $8.

How could Dahlin end his bridge deal early?

Thompson should be signed to an 8 x $6.5 to $7 deal as soon as possible.  I think he is under contract for only this coming season, so can't he sign an extension now?

Re Dahlin:  In real life, parties can end contracts early if they agree to do so, and can renegotiate a new one.  In NHL world, there's probably some restriction on that.  Still, whenever he CAN sign a new deal, if he's willing to, the Sabres should jump at it.

Re Thompson:  Same problem for me--I just don't know this CBA well enough to answer.

[GoPuckYourself]

Does any GM sign a player before he produces? If a player knows their elite why would they sign early knowing they can make way more in 2 more seasons? 

Since it's for fun I'd say Jack Quinn, I think he has a great chance at becoming a core player, I would not hate locking him up earlier than expected. Thompson is scary to me as he came out of nowhere, I didn't see much out of him before this past season and I hope this is truly who he is but it's very hard to predict.

[MattPie]

20 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Thompson, definitely.  Get it done now at 8 x 6.5  or 8 x 7 if they can.  Can't hit if you don't swing...

Power maybe, depending on what we see.  He very well could be a guy that I would offer 8 years, and not a bridge deal.

Dahlin, if he wants to end his bridge deal early.

Yeah, Thompson. My gut says he won't repeat this year, so locking him up in case he proves that he can would be ideal. I don't know the going rate, but whatever a 25-goal, 75-point center makes would make sense to me if he'll take it.

 

[MattPie]

1 minute ago, GoPuckYourself said:

Does any GM sign a player before he produces? If a player knows their elite why would they sign early knowing they can make way more in 2 more seasons?

Injury, or unexpected drop off. NHL is guaranteed, so lock up your money now. Someone might crush your head or knee in your next game (or you just lose "IT"), and you're scraping for 1-2M$ a year or out of the league.

[Eleven]

4 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

Does any GM sign a player before he produces? If a player knows their elite why would they sign early knowing they can make way more in 2 more seasons? 

It's risk/reward evaluation for both sides, right?  Sometimes they meet in the middle, sometimes they don't.

[mjd1001]

14 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

Does any GM sign a player before he produces? If a player knows their elite why would they sign early knowing they can make way more in 2 more seasons? 

Since it's for fun I'd say Jack Quinn, I think he has a great chance at becoming a core player, I would not hate locking him up earlier than expected. Thompson is scary to me as he came out of nowhere, I didn't see much out of him before this past season and I hope this is truly who he is but it's very hard to predict.

it doesn't have to be an on/off switch he is either producing or not. It can be to what degree.  Sometimes a player can start to produce well, but you pay him a lot more than many think he deserves (a guy is playing like a $3.5 million dollar guy, you give him $5.5 for 7 years, and by the end of the deal he is much better and producing like a $7-8 million dollar guy)

A deal like Pastrnak signed previously for 6x40 or Barkov's last deal at 6x35 are examples. Those guys were producing already, but by the end of their deals they looked like huge bargains.  The other side of it would be a guy like Tage, who blossoms into something that is well beyond the contract he signed.

Edited July 21, 2022 by mjd1001

[msw2112]

The Sabres have a ways to go to get there, but I hope they develop a Bills-like culture.  Most of the Bills core players WANT to stay with the team and sign reasonable, team-friendly deals to stay with the team, when they know they could make more elsewhere.  Matt Milano is a good example.  Dion Dawkins is another.  Josh Allen's deal is suddently a bargain.  Diggs has a fair deal, compared to the top of the WR market.  Assuming he recovers from injury and returns to form, Tre White's deal is very fair for a top-tier CB.  And so on.  The Bills are not low-balling these guys and offering them insultingly low deals, they are offering fair deals that pay the player well, but also don't hurt the team financially.  It's a win-win.  If the Sabres can get over the hump with this team and become a playoff participant and ultimately a Cup contender, most guys will want to stay and make take a little less to be a part of what's going on in Buffalo.

Me-first guys who hold out for every last dime and/or abandon the team for greener ($) pastures may not be the type of guys you want on your roster.  Guys who have earned it deserve to be paid, but should look at the team as a whole when negotiating their deals.  Keep in mind, I am not talking about guys like O'Reilly and Reinhart that wanted to get away from the train wreck that the Sabres were just a couple of years ago.  That's a different situation.  But if the team is doing well and on the rise, and would be desirable team to be a part of, and guys are pushing the envelope too hard on salary, that's where a team has to wonder whether it's better to cut bait and trade the guys for what they can get.

[JustOneParade]

Re: Tage Thompson. The comps (age, position, 'breakout season', '21-22 production) to Josh Norris in Ottawa are very similar. Norris just got 8x$7.95M.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

39 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Re Dahlin:  In real life, parties can end contracts early if they agree to do so, and can renegotiate a new one.  In NHL world, there's probably some restriction on that.  Still, whenever he CAN sign a new deal, if he's willing to, the Sabres should jump at it.

Re Thompson:  Same problem for me--I just don't know this CBA well enough to answer.

I understand about real life deals, but this is the NHL.

[Eleven]

7 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

I understand about real life deals, but this is the NHL.

Yeah that's the part I don't know.

[matter2003]

52 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

This is the correct answer.

Dahlin and Power will be up for new contracts in 2 years.  I can see Dahlin signing 8 x $10 and Power 8 x $8.

How could Dahlin end his bridge deal early?

Thompson should be signed to an 8 x $6.5 to $7 deal as soon as possible.  I think he is under contract for only this coming season, so can't he sign an extension now?

Thompson is turning into a beast thanks to Granato switching him to center and letting him be creative and taking some responsibilities away from him defensively.  I think he scores 40+ next year, especially with the team that ended last year on a 102 point pace over the last 2 months being the team starting out this year with some key additions like Power who only played a handful of games last season and Quinn and likely Peterka.

[Taro T]

53 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

This is the correct answer.

Dahlin and Power will be up for new contracts in 2 years.  I can see Dahlin signing 8 x $10 and Power 8 x $8.

How could Dahlin end his bridge deal early?

Thompson should be signed to an 8 x $6.5 to $7 deal as soon as possible.  I think he is under contract for only this coming season, so can't he sign an extension now?

Thompson is in the 3rd year of a 3 year deal.  He can be re-signed at any time the Sabres & he can work out a deal for up to the next 8 years after '22-'23.

Dahlin (effectively) can't end his current deal early.  But he also could, & almost definitely will get signed to a LT deal after his contract ends in the summer of '24.  The Sabres & he can sign that next deal starting next July.

[GASabresIUFAN]

and if Thompson back tracks this season to 50 pts? How is Skinner's huge deal  working out?  Did we get our money's worth out of Risto's extension?  What about deals like Mark Stones or William Karlsson's?

These long-term big money deals rarely work out.  I'm not signing any current Sabre for more than 5-6 years.  I think TB will come to regret all 3 of the 8 years extension they just gave out.  

[Curt]

26 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Yeah that's the part I don't know.

Can’t end or renegotiate a deal early.

Can sign an extension with 1 year or less left on your existing deal.

For example, Dahlin has 2 years left on his contract.  He can’t sign an extension right now.  Cozens has 1 year left on his deal.  He can sign an extension, but it doesn’t kick in until his current deal is finished.  So if Cozens signed a 6 year, $4.5M extension tomorrow, he still plays next season on the last year of his $0.85M (or whatever it is) ELC.  Then his 6 year contract starts the year after that.

[MattPie]

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

Yeah that's the part I don't know.

 

58 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Thompson is in the 3rd year of a 3 year deal.  He can be re-signed at any time the Sabres & he can work out a deal for up to the next 8 years after '22-'23.

Dahlin (effectively) can't end his current deal early.  But he also could, & almost definitely will get signed to a LT deal after his contract ends in the summer of '24.  The Sabres & he can sign that next deal starting next July.

I was going to say that the Bogosian situation could apply, where the team and player decided to part ways. At that point the team and player could then sign whatever they want. But IIRC he had to pass waivers for that to happen which is... "unlikely" to work with Dahlin.

[PerreaultForever]

Nobody. 

 

[sweetlou]

I would extend Cozens this off season for 6 years at $4.5AAV.  This locks him up for an overpayment for the next two years but an underpayment for years 3-6.  It would take him to UFA where he canteen decide what is best for his future.  I feel he can develop into a Cirelli type player.  I believe Cirelli issuing to be over payed at his $6.25 million extension.

Thompson I would wait til around Christmas to offer any extension.  If he has a good start and last year was not a fluke then you also extend him for 6 years at an AAV of $7 million. 

 

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

and if Thompson back tracks this season to 50 pts? How is Skinner's huge deal  working out?  Did we get our money's worth out of Risto's extension?  What about deals like Mark Stones or William Karlsson's?

These long-term big money deals rarely work out.  I'm not signing any current Sabre for more than 5-6 years.  I think TB will come to regret all 3 of the 8 years extension they just gave out.  

And what about Drury and Briere?  Come off it, there are plenty of examples of each situation.  These deals work as often as they don’t (McDavid, Crosby).

Edited July 21, 2022 by Eleven

[Weave]

33 minutes ago, Eleven said:

And what about Drury and Briere?  Come off it, there are plenty of examples of each situation.  These deals work as often as they don’t (McDavid, Crosby).

Beat me to it.

In my mind there are two factors at play, do you have faith in your evaluation of his future performance, and is that player a core piece of the team?

If you strongly believe your evaluation and the player projects to be a core piece, you go long term.

[GASabresIUFAN]

27 minutes ago, Eleven said:

And what about Drury and Briere?  Come off it, there are plenty of examples of each situation.  These deals work as often as they don’t (McDavid, Crosby).

McDavid and Crosby are superstars that have stayed healthy.  The Blackhawks gave Kane, Toews, Keith and Seabrook huge longterm deals. Only Kane’s has worked.  Shea Weber’s deal is a failure.  The list is endless. 

Drury and Briere’s contracts when they left the Sabres failed miserably. Drury was paid an average 7 mill a year for 5 years and last only 3.5 years with the Rags. His points we 56, 58, 32 and then 5.  You consider that a success?
 

Most long term deals especially if they last past 34 deteriorate quickly.  Locking kids up also often don’t work.  How is Kotkaniemi’s deal working for the Canes?

I’m not saying don’t give deals to some of our key kids. Dahlin and Power are the best bets, but again 5-6 years max.