Where do the Sabres Rank in terms of Prospect Pools post draft?

[Taro T]

Wheeler's goalie list was out today and the Sabres are well represented.

Levi is 5.

Portillo is 9.

And UPL got an honorable mention.

So, Sabres prospects claim 6 of his 60 slots and 4 more were close.

So, he seems to think the Sabres prospect pool is fairly deep.  (It is.)

[PickaPecaPickles]

13 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

How does this indicate Pronman is better at evaluating prospects?

It's my uneducated hockey opinion based on my reading of their opinions--which is why I started with "I think".  The one example I gave to support Pronman is based on the fact that people who get paid a lot of money picked the guy he had #1 while Wright got picked #4.  This article from the Athletic also made me lean more toward his opinons on propects:  https://theathletic.com/3376976/2022/06/23/nhl-draft-top-prospects-debate/

 

[LGR4GM]

33 minutes ago, PickaPecaPickles said:

It's my uneducated hockey opinion based on my reading of their opinions--which is why I started with "I think".  The one example I gave to support Pronman is based on the fact that people who get paid a lot of money picked the guy he had #1 while Wright got picked #4.  This article from the Athletic also made me lean more toward his opinons on propects:  https://theathletic.com/3376976/2022/06/23/nhl-draft-top-prospects-debate/

 

It's interesting because when I read that piece it makes me dislike Pronman's evaluation more. It is centered on the wrong things in my mind but to each their own, we will know in a few years who got this one right. 

I do want to say 2 things. NHL teams pay ppl a lot of money and screw up all the time so that doesn't mean anything to me personally. Tyler Boucher is the latest example that comes to mind.

Second is how Wright ended up at 4. Montreal had recency bias due to the international tournaments and that is why they picked Salfskovsky. NJD have 2 young centers and have other positions of need so that is why they picked Nemec. Now I think you can argue NJD probably should have just picked the C here but I understand when you have Hischier and Hughes already as your 1/2 punch. Arizona has a fan problem so they made sure to pick an American talent they can sell to their fans and who honestly you could convince me will be better than Wright in the long run so this one is close. That brings us to the Kraken who can't pick Slafskovsky even if they have recency bias, could have picked Nemec but are not restrained by positional needs (they need everything), and Cooley who is the coin flip with Wright. That's really how he falls to 4. 

After the draft ends, where a player gets picked is roughly meaningless. Savoie being 9th overall doesn't preclude Östlund or Kulich from overtaking him as the better prospect. Jack Quinn is a better prospect in mind right now compared to Rossi who I am on record as loving in his draft year (we will never know what Covid impact had on Rossi). Slafs going 1 versus Wright 4, doesn't really change my view of things is the point. Now if Wright takes a step back and Slafs continues to excel, very much justifies the selection but I personally think Wright missing his entire DY-1 year will result in his DY+1 year being a bigger jump (I hope Seattle leaves him in the OHL). Time will tell. 

Sorry for going on this long. It is my way of saying I understand why you like Pronman, I personally like Wheeler better but to each their own. 

[Rasmus_]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

It's interesting because when I read that piece it makes me dislike Pronman's evaluation more. It is centered on the wrong things in my mind but to each their own, we will know in a few years who got this one right. 

I do want to say 2 things. NHL teams pay ppl a lot of money and screw up all the time so that doesn't mean anything to me personally. Tyler Boucher is the latest example that comes to mind.

Second is how Wright ended up at 4. Montreal had recency bias due to the international tournaments and that is why they picked Salfskovsky. NJD have 2 young centers and have other positions of need so that is why they picked Nemec. Now I think you can argue NJD probably should have just picked the C here but I understand when you have Hischier and Hughes already as your 1/2 punch. Arizona has a fan problem so they made sure to pick an American talent they can sell to their fans and who honestly you could convince me will be better than Wright in the long run so this one is close. That brings us to the Kraken who can't pick Slafskovsky even if they have recency bias, could have picked Nemec but are not restrained by positional needs (they need everything), and Cooley who is the coin flip with Wright. That's really how he falls to 4. 

After the draft ends, where a player gets picked is roughly meaningless. Savoie being 9th overall doesn't preclude Östlund or Kulich from overtaking him as the better prospect. Jack Quinn is a better prospect in mind right now compared to Rossi who I am on record as loving in his draft year (we will never know what Covid impact had on Rossi). Slafs going 1 versus Wright 4, doesn't really change my view of things is the point. Now if Wright takes a step back and Slafs continues to excel, very much justifies the selection but I personally think Wright missing his entire DY-1 year will result in his DY+1 year being a bigger jump (I hope Seattle leaves him in the OHL). Time will tell. 

Sorry for going on this long. It is my way of saying I understand why you like Pronman, I personally like Wheeler better but to each their own. 

 

Great insight here, and I agree.  I really loved Rossi's prospect and play style, coming into the draft, but I've had to bite down hard that I was completely wrong on Quinn being even a slight reach.  He's proven his value, with the only "slight" knock being some of his injury track record. 

[dudacek]

I think Shayne Wright went 4th because the 3 teams picking ahead of him all saw players available that they ranked higher.

I think 3 factors weighed against Wright:

1. Growth. he was an early physical developer who dominated in part because of that when he was younger but whose dominance fell off as he aged and other kids caught up. He was not significantly better at 17 than he was at 15 and in the scouting world that matters.

2. Skill. The hype machine had most of us expecting franchise 1C skill but I didn’t see it. He didn’t have Lafontaine’s burst, Hawerchuk’s craftiness, Forsberg’s indomitable presence. He’s very good, smart and strong. But when I look at his physical gifts I see more O’Reilly than Eichel.

3. Character. You read a quote from Wright, he says the right things. But the more you watch him interact with people, the more you get the sense he is reading from a script. Im not saying he’s Evander Kane-style trouble, but I get the sense he is more calculated Hockey Canada media creation covering stereotypical entitled hockey star douchiness than the mainstream narrative let on, and it made organizations hesitant to invest.

 

[French Collection]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think Shayne Wright went 4th because the 3 teams picking ahead of him all saw players available that they ranked higher.

I think 3 factors weighed against Wright:

1. Growth. he was an early physical developer who dominated in part because of that when he was younger but whose dominance fell off as he aged and other kids caught up. He was not significantly better at 17 than he was at 15 and in the scouting world that matters.

2. Skill. The hype machine had most of us expecting franchise 1C skill but I didn’t see it. He didn’t have Lafontaine’s burst, Hawerchuk’s craftiness, Forsberg’s indomitable presence. He’s very good, smart and strong. But when I look at his physical gifts I see more O’Reilly than Eichel.

3. Character. You read a quote from Wright, he says the right things. But the more you watch him interact with people, the more you get the sense he is reading from a script. Im not saying he’s Evander Kane-style trouble, but I get the sense he is more calculated Hockey Canada media creation covering stereotypical entitled hockey star douchiness than the mainstream narrative let on, and it made organizations hesitant to invest.

 

I think you nailed it.

His stare at the Habs table was kind of creepy.

I watched him live about 6 times and he never left me thinking he was a star. He may become a 1C yet but my take is a middle 6 C.

He almost looked better as a 15 year old. I don’t think he busts like Sean Day but the next Bergeron is a stretch.

[Carmel Corn]

New article from the Hockey News.....pretty positive assessment.

https://thehockeynews.com/news/prospect-pool-overview-buffalo-sabres

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here is where Wheeler lost me.  He seems to value 19 & 20 year olds beating up on 17 & 18 year olds in the CHL over 19 year olds thriving in the AHL.

For  example

in 2020 Dallas drafted Mavrik Bourque 30th and Wheeler ranks him 39th currently.  Last season as a 19 he posted 20g 48a in 31 games plus added 16g 9a for 25 pts in 16 playoff games.  He also added 5 pts in 6 AHL games.

Now compare to 41st rated Lukas Reichel and HM JJP.

Reichel, drafted 17th in 2020,  put up 21g 36a in 57 gms last season in the AHL at 19

JJP, drafted 34th in 2020, put up  28g 40a in 68 gms last season plus 12 pts (7 goals) in 10 playoff games at 19.

So what's more impressive dominating the Q as someone who turned 20 mid season or two 19 years leading their AHL teams in scoring and scoring a 1 pt a game?  At worst the 3 guys should be rated the same and Reichel and Bourque basically are, but how is JJP not even in the same ballpark?  

Wheeler said that JJP's ranking was lower because he played on a better scoring team than Reichel.  I'm sorry but that's bs especially when you look at their respective performances in the AHL playoffs where JJP thrived and Reichel disappeared.

 

Edited July 26, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[PickaPecaPickles]

9 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

It's interesting because when I read that piece it makes me dislike Pronman's evaluation more. It is centered on the wrong things in my mind but to each their own, we will know in a few years who got this one right. 

I do want to say 2 things. NHL teams pay ppl a lot of money and screw up all the time so that doesn't mean anything to me personally. Tyler Boucher is the latest example that comes to mind.

Second is how Wright ended up at 4. Montreal had recency bias due to the international tournaments and that is why they picked Salfskovsky. NJD have 2 young centers and have other positions of need so that is why they picked Nemec. Now I think you can argue NJD probably should have just picked the C here but I understand when you have Hischier and Hughes already as your 1/2 punch. Arizona has a fan problem so they made sure to pick an American talent they can sell to their fans and who honestly you could convince me will be better than Wright in the long run so this one is close. That brings us to the Kraken who can't pick Slafskovsky even if they have recency bias, could have picked Nemec but are not restrained by positional needs (they need everything), and Cooley who is the coin flip with Wright. That's really how he falls to 4. 

After the draft ends, where a player gets picked is roughly meaningless. Savoie being 9th overall doesn't preclude Östlund or Kulich from overtaking him as the better prospect. Jack Quinn is a better prospect in mind right now compared to Rossi who I am on record as loving in his draft year (we will never know what Covid impact had on Rossi). Slafs going 1 versus Wright 4, doesn't really change my view of things is the point. Now if Wright takes a step back and Slafs continues to excel, very much justifies the selection but I personally think Wright missing his entire DY-1 year will result in his DY+1 year being a bigger jump (I hope Seattle leaves him in the OHL). Time will tell. 

Sorry for going on this long. It is my way of saying I understand why you like Pronman, I personally like Wheeler better but to each their own. 

Thanks for the detailed response.  When I say "my uneducated opinion" it's not sarcasm.  I never played the game, so I would never claim any expertise.  One thing I will certainly agree with, the hockey draft is probably the biggest crapshoot of any of the major sports because of the age of these kids.  And totally agree we won't know who is the better prognosticator for another few years.

 

[JoeSchmoe]

1 hour ago, PickaPecaPickles said:

Thanks for the detailed response.  When I say "my uneducated opinion" it's not sarcasm.  I never played the game, so I would never claim any expertise.  One thing I will certainly agree with, the hockey draft is probably the biggest crapshoot of any of the major sports because of the age of these kids.  And totally agree we won't know who is the better prognosticator for another few years.

 

I think baseball has hockey beat as far as the crapshoot factor goes.

[Buffalonill]

10 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think Shayne Wright went 4th because the 3 teams picking ahead of him all saw players available that they ranked higher.

I think 3 factors weighed against Wright:

1. Growth. he was an early physical developer who dominated in part because of that when he was younger but whose dominance fell off as he aged and other kids caught up. He was not significantly better at 17 than he was at 15 and in the scouting world that matters.

2. Skill. The hype machine had most of us expecting franchise 1C skill but I didn’t see it. He didn’t have Lafontaine’s burst, Hawerchuk’s craftiness, Forsberg’s indomitable presence. He’s very good, smart and strong. But when I look at his physical gifts I see more O’Reilly than Eichel.

3. Character. You read a quote from Wright, he says the right things. But the more you watch him interact with people, the more you get the sense he is reading from a script. Im not saying he’s Evander Kane-style trouble, but I get the sense he is more calculated Hockey Canada media creation covering stereotypical entitled hockey star douchiness than the mainstream narrative let on, and it made organizations hesitant to invest.

 

Or hes just a douche bag like josh Rosen 

Edited July 27, 2022 by Buffalonill

[PickaPecaPickles]

7 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

I think baseball has hockey beat as far as the crapshoot factor goes.

It's a close one.  Seems more and more college players are being drafted over HS kids for that reason?