Sabres vs Red Wings vs Sens (vs CBJ) - Who is a better team right now?

[Buffalonill]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

Go ahead and think that.  Let's see what happens when they play the games.

 

Ok we will play the wait and see game.

 

[Buffalonill]

People are sleeping on Jake Sanderson I see . 

[nfreeman]

Ottawa projected top 9 forwards/top 4 😧

Brady Tkachuk - Josh Norris - Drake Batherson

Alex DeBrincat - Tim Stützle - Claude Giroux

Alex Formenton - Shane Pinto -Mathieu Joseph

Thomas Chabot - Travis Hamonic

Erik Brannstrom - Artem Zub

 

Detroit projected top 9 forwards/top 4:

Lucas Raymond - Dylan Larkin - Tyler Bertuzzi

Jakub Vrana - Andrew Copp - David Perron

Dominik Kubalik - Pius Suter - Filip Zadina

Ben Chiarot - Moritz Seider

Olli Maatta - Filip Hronek

 

Sabres projected top 9 forwards/top 4:

Skinner - TT - Tuch

Krebs-Cozens-KO

VO-Mitts-Quinn

Mule-Dahlin

Power-Joker

 

Ottawa's top 6 looks good, but has 3 young guys that need to replicate and build on their early-career success and a fourth, in Giroux, who may be out of gas.  IMHO It's pretty likely that the Sabres' top 9 will be about as productive as Ottawa's, and more productive than Detroit's.  And the Sabres' top 4 D look better than Ottawa's, and Detroit's for that matter.

 

[dudacek]

Regardless of whether you agree with @nfreeman’s conclusions, that’s ^^^ the proper way of looking at the competition.

[Porous Five Hole]

26 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Ottawa projected top 9 forwards/top 4 😧

Brady Tkachuk - Josh Norris - Drake Batherson

Alex DeBrincat - Tim Stützle - Claude Giroux

Alex Formenton - Shane Pinto -Mathieu Joseph

Thomas Chabot - Travis Hamonic

Erik Brannstrom - Artem Zub

 

Detroit projected top 9 forwards/top 4:

Lucas Raymond - Dylan Larkin - Tyler Bertuzzi

Jakub Vrana - Andrew Copp - David Perron

Dominik Kubalik - Pius Suter - Filip Zadina

Ben Chiarot - Moritz Seider

Olli Maatta - Filip Hronek

 

Sabres projected top 9 forwards/top 4:

Skinner - TT - Tuch

Krebs-Cozens-KO

VO-Mitts-Quinn

Mule-Dahlin

Power-Joker

 

Ottawa's top 6 looks good, but has 3 young guys that need to replicate and build on their early-career success and a fourth, in Giroux, who may be out of gas.  IMHO It's pretty likely that the Sabres' top 9 will be about as productive as Ottawa's, and more productive than Detroit's.  And the Sabres' top 4 D look better than Ottawa's, and Detroit's for that matter.

 

The distinct advantage I think the Sabres have here are the highest ceiling defenseman of comparison.  
 

While it is close as all three teams gave up more than the league average (Buffalo was best of the three in 21-22), I expect shots against/shot suppression to be a leading factor for the Sabres rise relative to the Sens/Wings.  
 

This isn’t to say Meatballs will employ a defense-first strategy, but cream rises to the top. Dahlin/Power/Mule will go a long way toward tipping the scales in the Sabres favor. Please oh please let Comrie be NHL average…if so, I like Buffalo in this comparison. 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

People are sleeping on Jake Sanderson I see . 

Who? Where?

Edited July 18, 2022 by LGR4GM

[Buffalonill]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Who? Where?

@nfreeman doesn't  even have him in the lineup for one 

@DarthEbriate doesn't  mention him one time 

@dudacek doesn't talk about him being important

hell everyone hasn't said anything about sanderson

[PerreaultForever]

7 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I just meant that the thread is about which of the 3 teams is the best team right now -- and if that is the question, then we need to consider the teams' entire rosters, not just the offseason additions.  You are of course correct that the offseason additions will be on the opening night rosters, but your posts in this thread seem to focus solely on the offseason additions, and not on the entire rosters.

 

I pretty much went into it with the 3 teams being equal. I mean we finished 2 points apart. So that's the season ending rosters. The argument hinges on how much you believe in our kids being ready right now and in whether or not you think the end of season wins were a real representation of where we are. So the Sabres are better IF the kids leap forward, Ottawa is better if the players they picked up play like they've played in the past. The latter seems the safer bet. 

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, Doohickie said:

In general this is true.  But it's also true that "losing teams" have a lot of turnover.  As @GASabresIUFAN points out, there is not much turnover on the Sabres other than at goalie, the position they most needed help at.  Much of the change the Sabres went through happened during the season last year and they've already integrated the new players into the system and the end of last season is a pretty good gauge of what to expect this season.

Ottawa and Detroit still have to figure out how to deploy the new assets, who plays well with whom and all that.  Granato has that sorted out for the most part; he just has to tinker around a bit with his D pairings a bit.

Also, Detroit will be playing under a new coach and a whole new system.  They may end up being hot trash for the first 15-20 games depending how LaLonde's system meshes with Blashill's.

What you say about Lalonde is possible, but by all accounts he's a pretty good coach so Yzerman probably knew what he was doing there. Point taken though, it's an uncertainty. I'm still not convinced Granato can get this team to play defense. They can definitely score more, but can they learn to stop the other teams from scoring? It's not ALL on the goalies so that's an uncertainty too imo. 

Ottawa will likely play DeBrincat with Giroux so two vets, I'm sure they will figure each other out pretty quickly. 

4 hours ago, Curt said:

1. Ottawa for sure.

Detroit and Buffalo are close for me.  Both Comrie and Husso experienced NHL success for the first time last season.  Both are the same age.  Husso had a larger sample size.

If you look at each guys previous several seasons, I don’t really get the impression that you are expressing though.  I know Comrie bounced around a couple teams but it’s Comrie who was more consistently good in the AHL.  Husso seems to have alternated good and poor seasons for the past several years.  I’m not seeing a steady progression leading to him being an NHL starter.  In his 3 previous seasons, his save percentages were 0.893, 0.909, and 0.871.  Those range from below average to putrid, and most of that was in the AHL.  Im not seeing the development that you are talking about and I have very little faith that Husso is even an average starting goalie.  Comrie outperformed him, but didn’t play nearly as much.  I’m not sure if either of them are more than a one year fluke.

With goalies it's always hard to say. The bolded sentence may in fact be true. 

[Archie Lee]

The optimist’s argument is that the Sabres added Tuch, Krebs, Samuelsson and Power over the course of last season and by the time Mittelstadt and Olofsson got healthy they had passed Ottawa and Detroit. Meaning Ottawa and Detroit were in positions of needing to catch-up. Now add Comrie, Lyubushkin, Quinn and Peterka and the Sabres still have the edge. 
 

This will never be the professional/media/expert opinion, because  free agency is viewed as an avenue for improvement and the Sabres mostly abstained. What we know, though, is that many UFA signings will not have the anticipated positive impact (including, possibly, ours). 
 

Since it is July, I’m an optimist. 
 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

FYI:  from the Athletic 

BUFFALO, N.Y. – Don Granato summed up the Sabres’ free-agent approach by saying, “We didn’t need to do a lot.”

That may sound like an odd statement coming from the coach of a team that missed the postseason. But all you needed to do was watch what unfolded during Buffalo’s four-day development camp to understand the way Granato and Kevyn Adams are approaching this season. They signed goalie Eric Comrie and defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin to affordable deals to bolster areas of need, but otherwise, the Sabres don’t want to get in the way of their young players.

“We added a lot over the last 12 months,” Granato said. “We didn’t need to add a lot in the last 12 days.”

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

@nfreeman doesn't  even have him in the lineup for one 

@DarthEbriate doesn't  mention him one time 

@dudacek doesn't talk about him being important

hell everyone hasn't said anything about sanderson

I mentioned him. Love me some Jake Sanderson. I think he'll be better than Simon Edvinsson this season. 

[nfreeman]

8 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

@nfreeman doesn't  even have him in the lineup for one 

@DarthEbriate doesn't  mention him one time 

@dudacek doesn't talk about him being important

hell everyone hasn't said anything about sanderson

Well, my lineups came from dailyfaceoff.com, so your beef is with them, not me.

As for Sanderson, he could be a difference-maker next season, or he could have the impact more typical of a rookie offensive defenseman who has never played in the NHL and who is coming off of 2 semi-serious injuries (hand surgery and shoulder).  I don't think it's prudent to pencil him in as a Cale Makar clone right out of the gate.

 

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I pretty much went into it with the 3 teams being equal. I mean we finished 2 points apart. So that's the season ending rosters. The argument hinges on how much you believe in our kids being ready right now and in whether or not you think the end of season wins were a real representation of where we are. So the Sabres are better IF the kids leap forward, Ottawa is better if the players they picked up play like they've played in the past. The latter seems the safer bet. 

I agree that the 2nd bolded is a major question, and I too have been skeptical of how meaningful their garbage-time performance was.  However, I think they absolutely were a much better team in the last 1/3 of the season than in the 1st 2/3, perhaps mostly because of health but also because of maturity, moving on from Eichel, etc.  The playoff-level record they put up in that last 1/3 was likely overstated due to not getting their opponents' A games most nights, but they were still greatly improved IMHO.

If the team we saw in the last 1/3 of the season was the real Sabres (a huge if, to be sure), then I don't think the 1st bolded in your post above is a correct assumption, because I think that Sabres team was materially better than the Senators and the Red Wings.  The other 2 teams narrowed that gap with their offseason additions, but the Sabres also made some potentially important additions (starting G, starting, physical D, 2 scoring Fs).  If the Sabres' additions deliver -- also a huge if -- then I think they will be able to maintain their separation from Ottawa and Detroit.

One semi-related point on this:  I think Ottawa's franchise is likely to benefit from its new ownership and Detroit's is likely to benefit from its new leadership in Stevie Y.  So although I think the Sabres are likely to be better than those 2 teams this year, over the long term, I doubt those 2 will remain doormats.

[LGR4GM]

I think Ottawa might be better than Buffalo right now on paper. Detroit, no. Their defense alone drops them below Buffalo and Ottawa.

I think Rasmus Dahlin's ability to play defense and get the puck up and out is being overshadowed by his early season mistakes. Owen Power was already getting better every game last season and was the best player who wasn't a goalie at the prospect game. Samuelsson will eat you. Lyubushkin is going to really show how to deny entries. If Ryan Johnson signs, there's basically better Jokiharju. 

What I'm saying is we're focusing a lot on the forwards when the defense is a key factor and a key weakness especially for Detroit. 

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

The optimist’s argument is that the Sabres added Tuch, Krebs, Samuelsson and Power over the course of last season and by the time Mittelstadt and Olofsson got healthy they had passed Ottawa and Detroit. Meaning Ottawa and Detroit were in positions of needing to catch-up. Now add Comrie, Lyubushkin, Quinn and Peterka and the Sabres still have the edge. 
 

This will never be the professional/media/expert opinion, because  free agency is viewed as an avenue for improvement and the Sabres mostly abstained. What we know, though, is that many UFA signings will not have the anticipated positive impact (including, possibly, ours). 
 

Since it is July, I’m an optimist. 
 

 

Summer is the time for optimism.  I see lots of rookies and questions at goaltending.  This is a season that could see 5 rookies in the lineup.  Quinn and Peterka are rookies.   Sammuelsson and Power and UPL played a bit last year but are essentially rookies (not sure if they have official rookie status) with very limited NHL experience.  Then there are injuries to deal with that will test our depth.  
 

To improve this season over last season then we need vets like Dahlin, Tage, Skinner, Okposso  Girgs, and Tuch to continue to provide leadership and a high level of play.  Plus we need improvement from Cozens, Mitts, Joker, and Krebs.   Then there are the 5 rookies I mentioned, Power and Samuelsson are counted on to contribute right away.  Quinn and Peterka will push for ice time and probably middle 6 ice time, and we still have VO, Asplund and Hinnestrosa fighting for spots.  

Sure Ottawa and Detroit added some quality vets and they could pass us this year but I prefer our young players and prospects for the long hall. 

The addition of Comrie could be the biggest factor on what we do in the standing’s.  If he is solid, and a few of the kids are ready, then I see our team challenge for a playoff spot but likely falling short.  

Edited July 18, 2022 by Pimlach

[dudacek]

I’m highly skeptical of Ottawa and Detroit’s performances down the stretch.

Couldnt even win during garbage time? 

😜

[Pimlach]

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think Ottawa might be better than Buffalo right now on paper. Detroit, no. Their defense alone drops them below Buffalo and Ottawa.

I think Rasmus Dahlin's ability to play defense and get the puck up and out is being overshadowed by his early season mistakes. Owen Power was already getting better every game last season and was the best player who wasn't a goalie at the prospect game. Samuelsson will eat you. Lyubushkin is going to really show how to deny entries. If Ryan Johnson signs, there's basically better Jokiharju. 

What I'm saying is we're focusing a lot on the forwards when the defense is a key factor and a key weakness especially for Detroit. 

Do you think Johnson has more upside than Joker?  In the past I thought you were kind of questioning Johnson as a prospect.  

[bob_sauve28]

 

[dudacek]

Just now, bob_sauve28 said:

 

And wait and see what that look like after Anderson gets hurt.

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Do you think Johnson has more upside than Joker?  In the past I thought you were kind of questioning Johnson as a prospect.  

Idk, Jokiharju regressed a little last year. I think Johnson can be better defensively than Joker but I guess we'll have to wait and see. 

It was never questioning Johnson as much as questioning taking him over say Kaliyev. 

[Taro T]

40 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

 

If Anderson were replaced w/ a 30 yo like most backups*, that trims another 1/2 year off the average age.  This team is really young.

And if the ages were weighted by contribution / ice time expect it would skew even younger.

[Edit: * - for teams w/ a young starter.  Teams w/ older starters seem to have a younger backup.  But either way, having a pair of goalies that doesn't include a 42 yo knocks 1/2 year off the team's average age.]

Edited July 18, 2022 by Taro T

[dudacek]

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Idk, Jokiharju regressed a little last year. I think Johnson can be better defensively than Joker but I guess we'll have to wait and see. 

It was never questioning Johnson as much as questioning taking him over say Kaliyev. 

I'm not on board at all with how the popular narrative has soured on Jokiharju.

Yes, his underlying numbers slipped slightly, but the kid was injured to start the year, then was thrust from an 18-minute 4/5 to a 22-minute 1st-pairing role.

His counting stats doubled without serious PP time and his +/- was among the best of the lineup regulars despite his tough usage.

If he ends up as a 4/5 as this team moves forward, I think he will be a very good one.

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'm not on board at all with how the popular narrative has soured on Jokiharju.

Yes, his underlying numbers slipped slightly, but the kid was injured to start the year, then was thrust from an 18-minute 4/5 to a 22-minute 1st-pairing role.

His counting stats doubled without serious PP time and his +/- was among the best of the lineup regulars despite his tough usage.

If he ends up as a 4/5 as this team moves forward, I think he will be a very good one.

Well, speaking as one who was on board w/ splitting up Dahlin & Jokiharju long before it became popular and who had him in consideration as one of their best performing D when paired w/ Scandella, consider Henri to be an excellent 3rd pairing D and an adequate 2nd pairing D in a pinch.  Expect he can still grow into a true 4/5 or maybe even a true 4.  But at this point in time really dislike him as Power's partner because the idea of pairing a rookie w/ a vet (and on this roster, Henri's an elder statesman) is to have the vet cover for the rook's mistakes, not vice versa.  

2nd pairing still faces the other team's top line reasonably often & Henri consistently isn't up to that task.  He lets himself get taken out of the play and runs around when there's a good cycle going forcing other teammates out of position.  (In that regard, he's reminiscent of Risto though nowhere near to the same level.)  He has improved greatly at understanding when to pinch, so he has improved in areas and likely still will get better.  Know that you're perfectly fine w/ him as Power's partner, but am really hoping that Lyubushkin who played w/ Reilly in TO jells with Owen as he plays the sort of style that will cover for rookie mistakes.

[GASabresIUFAN]

The biggest question mark for the the Sabres continues to be the risk KA has taken in net.  Anderson is 41 and missed substantial time last season and although he performed well, his play diminished as the season progressed.  Comrie has a total of 28 games in the NHL with his 19 last season an obvious career high.  In fact in the last 3 season Comrie has played 47 total games in both the AHL and NHL.  That's not much work.  

That said I like what I saw last year in WPG.  My son-in-law is a Jets fan and I watched many of their games last year.

Still goaltending more than youth is the Sabres Achilles Heal.  If they stay healthy and play to their potential than KA will look like a genius, but this could easily blow up in Kevyn's face and take the season down with it.

[LGR4GM]

40 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'm not on board at all with how the popular narrative has soured on Jokiharju.

Yes, his underlying numbers slipped slightly, but the kid was injured to start the year, then was thrust from an 18-minute 4/5 to a 22-minute 1st-pairing role.

His counting stats doubled without serious PP time and his +/- was among the best of the lineup regulars despite his tough usage.

If he ends up as a 4/5 as this team moves forward, I think he will be a very good one.

That's okay. 

It's like how the popular narrative is Krebs is good and a center where I didn't see that last year. I saw a pass first winger who needed to work on every part of his game.