Sabres vs Red Wings vs Sens (vs CBJ) - Who is a better team right now?

[PerreaultForever]

11 hours ago, Doohickie said:

That's a terrible take.  That's my opinion at this point.

You may disagree, but at this point do you not think Detroit and Ottawa (and maybe Columbus) got significantly better than they were? 

Our being better depends on prospects developing which is a big maybe. They got better now. 

[JohnC]

14 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

You may disagree, but at this point do you not think Detroit and Ottawa (and maybe Columbus) got significantly better than they were? 

Our being better depends on prospects developing which is a big maybe. They got better now. 

The Sabres getting better this upcoming season will be more of a function of the young players who were on the roster last year getting better than the prospects moving up the ranks. Tage, Mitts, Cozens, Dahlin, Joki, Krebs (also a prospect who played some NHL games), Bryson and Samuelsson are players who already have demonstrated that they can play in this league. The issue becomes how much better will they get? I just think that the listed players have more growth potential that should be evident next season. 

I'm not disputing the fact that Detroit, Ottawa and Columbus made moves to bring in talent. The reason that the Sabres didn't is because they had players such as Quinn, JJ and Powers who should be added to the roster. The Sabres did add a goalie and the Toronto defenseman so some obvious needs were addressed. 

I don't know how teams such as Ottawa and Detroit will do in comparison to Buffalo. As it stands, I consider these three teams in the same strata. It will be interesting to watch how each team will rank in comparison to one another. 

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

The Sabres getting better this upcoming season will be more of a function of the young players who were on the roster last year getting better than the prospects moving up the ranks. Tage, Mitts, Cozens, Dahlin, Joki, Krebs (also a prospect who played some NHL games), Bryson and Samuelsson are players who already have demonstrated that they can play in this league. The issue becomes how much better will they get? I just think that the listed players have more growth potential that should be evident next season. 

I'm not disputing the fact that Detroit, Ottawa and Columbus made moves to bring in talent. The reason that the Sabres didn't is because they had players such as Quinn, JJ and Powers who should be added to the roster. The Sabres did add a goalie and the Toronto defenseman so some obvious needs were addressed. 

I don't know how teams such as Ottawa and Detroit will do in comparison to Buffalo. As it stands, I consider these three teams in the same strata. It will be interesting to watch how each team will rank in comparison to one another. 

Well, there's a lack of objectivity among the fanbase. The oddsmakers, who are about as objective as you can get, now have the Sabres placed only ahead of the Habs in our division. That's pretty much in agreement with what I've been saying. 

You're right though, I used the word prospects loosely when I was generally referring to young players who haven't lived up to their potential yet or just haven't really proven it yet at an NHL level. Of the players you list, only Dahlin and (probably) Tage are proven entities. Maybe Samuelsson, probably, but how good (or bad) he ends up being is still uncertain. 

The rest are just a big pile of idk and hopefulness. Definitely not proven. Do I think Cozens can be good? Yes, definitely. Do I know if he will or if that's now? Definitely not. To this point, he seems to have a hard time putting the puck in the net. Will that change like it did with Tage? Likely, but who knows when? Joker? idk. He has flaws. Has he peaked? Can he be better? Will he be better? idk. Right now, he's a weak link as a top 2 pairing. Krebs and Mitts have skills but neither has shown me that they are or will be top 6 NHL players. 

Power will be a good hockey player. One day. Probably. But he's a kid. Going to take several years before he makes a huge difference. JJ? No idea. Quinn this Quinn that, everybody excited about Quinn. Lightweight who seems fragile and has proven nothing in the NHL. No idea if his AHL prowess will transfer to the big league but do I expect him to jump in and score 20-30 goals next year? Not likely. 

I know you want to believe, I know fans don't like these thoughts, but I'm trying to be objective and not just have faith. I've been saying it all season (and part of last). After all these years of losing they have to show me on the ice. Nothing else matters to me. How do you get better??? Good drafts and smart free agent moves. (I'd include trades but when you trade for picks and prospects it loops you back to the draft). The drafts seem reasonable, but then so many drafts that bust seem reasonable when you first look at them. Got to wait to see. The free agent moves? Pretty much nothing. That's disappointing. That's it. 

 

Edited July 16, 2022 by PerreaultForever

[Doohicksie]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

You may disagree, but at this point do you not think Detroit and Ottawa (and maybe Columbus) got significantly better than they were? 

Our being better depends on prospects developing which is a big maybe. They got better now. 

Player by player you might make that argument, but Buffalo (for a change) has stable chemistry and stability behind the bench.  I could see where Detroit in particular is a hot mess early due to the coaching change.  The new players the Sabres brought in should "plug the leaks" in the roster, but the rest of the team was already playing at a playoff clip at the end of last season while Detroit and Ottawa were struggling at the end.  Momentum from one season doesn't often carry into the next but in this case I think the relatively minor changes to the Sabres roster will enable them to pick up where they left off last season, which was in a pretty good spot.... and a playoff point pace.

So I will concede that player-by-player, Detroit and Ottawa may have improved more than the Sabres but would counter that there are factors outside of the roster that will make the Sabres a better team than them out of the gate.

[PerreaultForever]

27 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Player by player you might make that argument, but Buffalo (for a change) has stable chemistry and stability behind the bench.  I could see where Detroit in particular is a hot mess early due to the coaching change.  The new players the Sabres brought in should "plug the leaks" in the roster, but the rest of the team was already playing at a playoff clip at the end of last season while Detroit and Ottawa were struggling at the end.  Momentum from one season doesn't often carry into the next but in this case I think the relatively minor changes to the Sabres roster will enable them to pick up where they left off last season, which was in a pretty good spot.... and a playoff point pace.

So I will concede that player-by-player, Detroit and Ottawa may have improved more than the Sabres but would counter that there are factors outside of the roster that will make the Sabres a better team than them out of the gate.

I would like to believe you, but the bolded is blatantly untrue. The only playoff team we seemed to trounce was Toronto. Tampa beat up on us. Florida trounced us multiple times. Boston shut us out. St. Louis beat us easily. We were winning against the crap teams, not the good ones. We scored more goals last year, but our defense was porous and our goaltending was (usually) crap. 

Stability and chemistry maybe. Remains to be seen what effect that has. 

[dudacek]

44 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I would like to believe you, but the bolded is blatantly untrue. The only playoff team we seemed to trounce was Toronto. Tampa beat up on us. Florida trounced us multiple times. Boston shut us out. St. Louis beat us easily. We were winning against the crap teams, not the good ones. We scored more goals last year, but our defense was porous and our goaltending was (usually) crap. 

the playoff clip he was referring to was the 16-9-3 record we had down the stretch.

In April and May the Sabres beat the Leafs three times, the Penguins, the Flames, the Wild, and the Canes.

[PerreaultForever]

22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

the playoff clip he was referring to was the 16-9-3 record we had down the stretch.

In April and May the Sabres beat the Leafs three times, the Penguins, the Flames, the Wild, and the Canes.

I know, but I'm saying it wasn't a "playoff clip" . We did win one against the Canes in a split and had a 1-0 over the Flames (although they turned out to be a playoff dud) but aside from the anomalous pasting of Toronto indoors and out we got schooled by Boston, Tampa, Florida, St. Louis. All the real playoff teams. Remember how gung ho everyone was and then they all came back down to earth when Tampa beat us 5-0? That win total is padded by a bunch of wins against Philly, NJ, Chicago. 

When you look at our record against playoff teams it wasn't very good, and if you take those Toronto games out it's really bad. It simply was NOT a "playoff clip" and if you think the late season wins indicate we will win at that rate next year I think you are living an illusion or even delusion. 

[dudacek]

16-9-3 is a playoff clip.

19 of those games were against playoff teams. 5 were against bottom-feeders.

Doesnt mean anything in terms of this coming season.

But deciding the wins against playoff teams don’t count and the losses against playoff teams do is disengenuous.

[North Buffalo]

weird topic dead of summer... wtf knows... hockey is a grind, wont know til 25-30 games in

[Doohicksie]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

the playoff clip he was referring to was the 16-9-3 record we had down the stretch.

In April and May the Sabres beat the Leafs three times, the Penguins, the Flames, the Wild, and the Canes.

...and VGK which was in a playoff position at the time... and other teams that were in the hunt.

[LGR4GM]

6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I know, but I'm saying it wasn't a "playoff clip" . We did win one against the Canes in a split and had a 1-0 over the Flames (although they turned out to be a playoff dud) but aside from the anomalous pasting of Toronto indoors and out we got schooled by Boston, Tampa, Florida, St. Louis. All the real playoff teams. Remember how gung ho everyone was and then they all came back down to earth when Tampa beat us 5-0? That win total is padded by a bunch of wins against Philly, NJ, Chicago. 

When you look at our record against playoff teams it wasn't very good, and if you take those Toronto games out it's really bad. It simply was NOT a "playoff clip" and if you think the late season wins indicate we will win at that rate next year I think you are living an illusion or even delusion. 

So just so we are clear, the Calgary Flames who lost a series 4-1 were a playoff dud so our win against them doesn't count but the Boston Bruins who lost their first round series 4-3 are a real playoff team and that proves we sucked still down the stretch. That's a special kind of "trying to be objective".

We also beat the Wild, lost in ot to the Rangers, lost in a SO to the Jets and Pens and Caps.

I like how beating the Toronto Maple Leafs is just brushed off as well.

Basically you only want to count the bad losses to the Bruins, Florida, and St Louis, while ignoring the good teams we beat or lost to in a shootout (which is a skills competition where the goalie really matters).

Objective my ass. You are a pessimist.

[LGR4GM]

I want to add again, the Senators and Redwings had to make moves in UFA to fill gaping holes in their lineup. The only reason this argument exists is because they did stuff and the prevailing sentiment is doing something = improvement.

Guess we'll find out pretty quickly considering we open the season against Ottawa. We also play both teams, Ottawa and Detroit, thrice by the new year.

Edited July 16, 2022 by LGR4GM

[JohnC]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I want to add again, the Senators and Redwings had to make moves in UFA to fill gaping holes in their lineup. The only reason this argument exists is because they did stuff and the prevailing sentiment is doing something = improvement.

Guess we'll find out pretty quickly considering we open the season against Ottawa. We also play both teams, Ottawa and Detroit, thrice by the new year.

It's fair to believe that Ottawa and Detroit are in the same strata as Buffalo is in. As you have perceptively pointed out to @PerreaultForever there is a valid reason why Buffalo didn't make many outside additions to the roster: The organization had the replacements within their system. Quinn, JJ and Power are players who will be replacing lesser talented players. And not only will they be better than the players they replaced but they will have significantly more potential than the players they will take over for. 

It seems that you,  @dudacek, I and others believe that the 16-9-3 record at the end of the season reflected a positive trend. And it should be noted that this record materialized when the roster was mostly back to health. There was a big difference in play when Olofsson and Mittss were hurt and when they were healthy at the end of the season. While some others use the full season record as their measuring stick, others are drawing more meaning when our roster was fully healthy. (As you have also noted.) We'll just have to wait and see who is more correct in their assessment. I'm in the optimistic camp. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Actually the oddsmakers aren’t truly objective.  Their job is to get the money flow as even as possible.  They may actually know the Sabres are better than Detroit, but Detroits headline acquisitions created more buzz, and therefore more money on them, decreasing their odds. 

Ask yourself, which Det signing would reasonable be expected to make the Sabres out of camp?  Husso, Copp? Maatta and Kubalik wouldn’t make our team. Perron has been really excellent in his 30’s but at 34 he isn’t going to to be a 50 pt player forever and it wasn’t worth blocking Quinn or JJP from making the team.  

Do you really think Stevie Y signs these players if he didn’t need them? 

Edited July 16, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[grinreaper]

On 7/15/2022 at 10:06 AM, Crusader1969 said:

i dont think so, there was real optimism when they drafted Eichel in 2005 for a year or two but I dont think there has been any optimism of playoffs and definitely not cup contender for at least the last 5 years or so.

 

 

And to think what we got in a trade for a 16 year veteran with years to go on his contract at 10 million a year. Most guys that have been around that long are ready for the glue factory. 

[French Collection]

24 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Actually the oddsmakers aren’t truly objective.  Their job is to get the money flow as even as possible.  They may actually know the Sabres are better than Detroit, but Detroits headline acquisitions created more buzz, and therefore more money on them, decreasing their odds. 

Ask yourself, which Det signing would reasonable be expected to make the Sabres out of camp?  Husso, Copp? Maatta and Kubalik wouldn’t make our team. Perron has been really excellent in his 30’s but at 34 he isn’t going to to be a 50 pt player forever and it wasn’t worth blocking Quinn or JJP from making the team.  

Do you really think Stevie Y signs these players if he didn’t need them? 

Stevie Y has a long runway in Detroit but there is some pressure to make a move forward. Chiarot is another older guy that will be going downhill shortly, he made a name for himself in Montreal’s run two years ago but he has limitations.

KA has just plugged a few holes with FA, it remains to be seen if Comrie does the job. KA didn’t cave in to pressure and overspend on a UFA who peaked years ago.

The Sabres prospect pool is deeper than those other teams’ and KA stuck to his guns.

Now watch them sign Kadri and Klingberg and prove me wrong.

1 minute ago, grinreaper said:

And to think what we got in a trade for a 16 year veteran with years to go on his contract at 10 million a year. Most guys that have been around that long are ready for the glue factory. 

Before the deal it felt like 16 years of drama.

[Believer]

On 7/14/2022 at 6:15 PM, PromoTheRobot said:

As for Murray, are you sure he was going to be the guy? Or was that deal more about swapping pick 16 for 7? Either way, if you don't have plans B, C, D, etc. you aren't doing your job.

As good as the pipeline of top draft choices the past few years… the investment by Pegula and Adams in building a top Analytics Dept will prove a difference maker for the Sabres in the draft and free agency for years to come… Comrie is an excellent example… Age 27, 28 NHL games, has learned how to win, good price, fills an immediate need, still developing with upside as the starter or backup to UPL or Levi…

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, Believer said:

a top Analytics Dept will prove a difference maker

There's already been some buzz at prospect camp around some of the later draft picks, that some are probably much better than their draft position would indicate.  This is what analytics will get you.

[Doohicksie]

The Hockey Guy weighs in...

 

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

The Hockey Guy weighs in...

 

Interesting talk, though I was distracted by the retro Goathead wondering why he chose that and also by the cat at the left edge of the chart that gave himself a good bath the whole time the fella was talking about the Sabres. 

[Doohicksie]

11 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Interesting talk, though I was distracted by the retro Goathead wondering why he chose that and also by the cat at the left edge of the chart that gave himself a good bath the whole time the fella was talking about the Sabres. 

If you notice he has an extensive jersey collection (and also a lot of graphics he uses on the whiteboards).  I'm sure those are all business expenses.... which is why he wears the jerseys in his videos. 

And yeah, you see his cats and rabbits in the videos from time to time.  I kind of ignore them since I've been watching his videos for a while.

To be honest I'm disappointed that he stated some basic information but didn't really draw any conclusion.

[PerreaultForever]

14 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I want to add again, the Senators and Redwings had to make moves in UFA to fill gaping holes in their lineup. The only reason this argument exists is because they did stuff and the prevailing sentiment is doing something = improvement.

Guess we'll find out pretty quickly considering we open the season against Ottawa. We also play both teams, Ottawa and Detroit, thrice by the new year.

If all of that (and the others) is true, (and it isn't), then why do the oddsmakers have us in 7th place in the division? I guess they are pessimists lacking objectivity too.

[Andrew Amerk]

Wins are wins. 

It doesn’t matter who they were against. They won the games, and that’s what matters. 

[steveoath]

6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

If all of that (and the others) is true, (and it isn't), then why do the oddsmakers have us in 7th place in the division? I guess they are pessimists lacking objectivity too.

Other factors? Over here odds will decrease the more money that is places on a certain outcome. Meaning that odds will shorten over time if more and more people take the bet. (I assume that's how it works in NA but not sure).

[Dr. Who]

11 hours ago, Doohickie said:

If you notice he has an extensive jersey collection (and also a lot of graphics he uses on the whiteboards).  I'm sure those are all business expenses.... which is why he wears the jerseys in his videos. 

And yeah, you see his cats and rabbits in the videos from time to time.  I kind of ignore them since I've been watching his videos for a while.

To be honest I'm disappointed that he stated some basic information but didn't really draw any conclusion.

Haven't watched him before, so I was unaware. I surmised he was simply stating cases without strong opinions, but yes, it wasn't much on that front. I think in two years it will be evident who is on the better trajectory. I think and hope it is us.