Sabres vs Red Wings vs Sens (vs CBJ) - Who is a better team right now?

[Doohicksie]

2 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

This will never be the professional/media/expert opinion

All those opinions (including mine) don't really mean squat.  What matters is what happens in October and beyond.

[mjd1001]

From the little bit of social media and post draft coverage I have watched, it appears that Ottawa fans are SURE they are the best among the 3, Detroit fans are sure they are, and Buffalo fans mostly think they are.  Pretty standard post draft stuff.

Ottawa made some major additions, but I have the least confidence in them.  I agree Giroux may be out of gas.  He is done as an impact player and Ottawa may find they need to give him less ice time by the end of the year because they simply have better options.

If you are one that likes to see the Vegas odd for who will be better, as of this weekend, a site I saw had Ottawa listed as 18th in terms of Stanley Cup favorites, with the Sabres at 19 (tied with Detroit, Nashville, Jersey, and Vancouver)  FYI, Colorado was the favorite followed by Toronto 2nd.....Arizona was at the bottom, 2nd last tied with Seattle, San Jose, Chicago, and Montreal.

Edited July 18, 2022 by mjd1001

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’m highly skeptical of Ottawa and Detroit’s performances down the stretch.

Couldnt even win during garbage time? 

😜

But Detroit added Ben Chariot, who in Buffalo can compare to Ben Chairots 20 points a season!?!?!!??

[LGR4GM]

Is Copp going to be better than Cozens in 2022? Cozens at 20 in his 2nd season produced at 65% of what Copp did on a ppg basis. Will Copp stay at his .74ppg pace? Will Cozens improve his? 

Copp had 1.9pts/60 with Winnipeg and 2.3pts/60 when you average in his nyr time. 

Cozens had 1.8pts/60 for Buffalo. 

Again, can Cozens improve and if he does wouldn't that equal the Copp move potential? 

Just an example of how I'm thinking about the 3 rosters going into 2022. 

Another example, is Ben Chairot better than Samuelsson? 

Is Olli Maatta better than Lyubushkin? Will Power be better than Hronek? 

Is Seider better than Dahlin, by how much? 

Edited July 18, 2022 by LGR4GM

[French Collection]

52 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

But Detroit added Ben Chariot, who in Buffalo can compare to Ben Chairots 20 points a season!?!?!!??

He’s good in his own end, blocking shots, clearing the crease and winning puck battles. However, the puck stays in his end a lot.

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, French Collection said:

He’s good in his own end, blocking shots, clearing the crease and winning puck battles. However, the puck stays in his end a lot.

So then he's not good at these things? Good means getting possession back. 

[French Collection]

15 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

So then he's not good at these things? Good means getting possession back. 

Yeah, his best hockey is behind him. He is a battler in his own end but doesn’t skate it out or create offense. To use an older term, stay at home defenseman.

[Curt]

36 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Yeah, his best hockey is behind him. He is a battler in his own end but doesn’t skate it out or create offense. To use an older term, stay at home defenseman.

Even if a player is strictly a stay at home defenseman, they can’t really be any good if they are no good at getting the puck back from the other team.  It’s not very helpful to be out there hitting people and blocking shots while the other team is able to just shoot at goal over and over again.

They don’t need to be skilled passers or puck rushers, but you need to be able to gain possession and at least make a short pass to a teammate to start the breakout.

[triumph_communes]

Ooooh boy opinions times. I love July

 

Joki didn’t regress, he was filling in for more minutes than he shouldn’t been. This is why the Luby signing is ideal. 
 

we are running on okie memory here if we didn’t notice two major inflections in performance for the team last season:

1. Tuch coming off injury

2. Anderson coming off injury until he broke down

 

Whole different team with Tuch in the mix to no surprise here. Culture is everything and his attitude is contagious. No sour grapes in the room to stop the spread. Before Tuch came in the team wasn’t deep enough nor competing hard enough.

The goalies. After this first week we were playing sub-replacement basement tier goaltending. Bad. I mean historically bad. Take that # of games and save% and apply it to 80% of the playoff teams and they don’t make the post season. We don’t need outstanding goaltending to make a 20 point standings difference. We only need average. When Anderson returned we got average goaltending for a couple months and it showed. His age showed up really quick at the end and that should be our major warning- do not let him play more than 25 games- but as far as assessing the team goes this is everything. Garbage time or not, we stopped playing playoff teams backups and was still winning games. Even knocked a couple hopefuls out of the playoffs (Vegas has dug their own grave on a burial ground).

 

Not to mention we added Power, plus a bunch of rookies are just aging/growing into their climb above replacement level contribution. 
 

Granato is completely right, the team didn’t need to do anything it already did over the last 12 months at the expense of last season. The way they played at the end was all sustainable hockey with sustainable average goaltending and nobody other than a replaced goalie on their downward trend. Okposo and Girgensons being the exception they have pretty much flatlined and that’s fine. 
 

 

Are we better than Ottawa?  Oh yeah. They had good goaltending and didn’t fundamentally improve their deficiencies they just added patches slopped with peanut butter to the torn up jeans. Isn’t going to last. 
 

Better than Detroit?  They had nearly as bad of a goalie mess as we did. And they took an equivalent gamble as we did to improve. We can argue even improvements in this department.
 

However, when they had decent goaltending they didn’t show a winning pace. They were treading water the entire time. That’s one sign of concern I have. 

Secondly they just had massive turnover. Coaches, players, etc. Probably needed, sure, but it usually takes some time for all of that to gel. Be it half a season or whatnot.  They lack a lot of raw talent too outside of his holiness.  They no doubt improved but I think they have too much to overcome before getting too far. 
 

Penguins are stumbling. Boston is stumbling. 
 

I think not getting to the playoffs is a major disappointment for where Buffalo is at. It’s finally time to break the curse. 

[DarthEbriate]

15 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

@nfreeman doesn't  even have him in the lineup for one 

@DarthEbriate doesn't  mention him one time 

@dudacek doesn't talk about him being important

hell everyone hasn't said anything about sanderson

I don't like Sand...erson.

I had to go back and look. I was mostly talking about goaltending so I didn't mention nearly anyone else. Sanderson's good though and he could make the Sens out of camp, but he's also only 20 and a D, so they might just stash him in AHL to work on his all-around game this season and build more muscle.

[LGR4GM]

30 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Ooooh boy opinions times. I love July

 

Joki didn’t regress, he was filling in for more minutes than he shouldn’t been. This is why the Luby signing is ideal. 
 

we are running on okie memory here if we didn’t notice two major inflections in performance for the team last season:

1. Tuch coming off injury

2. Anderson coming off injury until he broke down

 

Whole different team with Tuch in the mix to no surprise here. Culture is everything and his attitude is contagious. No sour grapes in the room to stop the spread. Before Tuch came in the team wasn’t deep enough nor competing hard enough.

The goalies. After this first week we were playing sub-replacement basement tier goaltending. Bad. I mean historically bad. Take that # of games and save% and apply it to 80% of the playoff teams and they don’t make the post season. We don’t need outstanding goaltending to make a 20 point standings difference. We only need average. When Anderson returned we got average goaltending for a couple months and it showed. His age showed up really quick at the end and that should be our major warning- do not let him play more than 25 games- but as far as assessing the team goes this is everything. Garbage time or not, we stopped playing playoff teams backups and was still winning games. Even knocked a couple hopefuls out of the playoffs (Vegas has dug their own grave on a burial ground).

 

Not to mention we added Power, plus a bunch of rookies are just aging/growing into their climb above replacement level contribution. 
 

Granato is completely right, the team didn’t need to do anything it already did over the last 12 months at the expense of last season. The way they played at the end was all sustainable hockey with sustainable average goaltending and nobody other than a replaced goalie on their downward trend. Okposo and Girgensons being the exception they have pretty much flatlined and that’s fine. 
 

 

Are we better than Ottawa?  Oh yeah. They had good goaltending and didn’t fundamentally improve their deficiencies they just added patches slopped with peanut butter to the torn up jeans. Isn’t going to last. 
 

Better than Detroit?  They had nearly as bad of a goalie mess as we did. And they took an equivalent gamble as we did to improve. We can argue even improvements in this department.
 

However, when they had decent goaltending they didn’t show a winning pace. They were treading water the entire time. That’s one sign of concern I have. 

Secondly they just had massive turnover. Coaches, players, etc. Probably needed, sure, but it usually takes some time for all of that to gel. Be it half a season or whatnot.  They lack a lot of raw talent too outside of his holiness.  They no doubt improved but I think they have too much to overcome before getting too far. 
 

Penguins are stumbling. Boston is stumbling. 
 

I think not getting to the playoffs is a major disappointment for where Buffalo is at. It’s finally time to break the curse. 

Really quick. Kyle Okposo did not flatline. He went from 1.6pts/60 to 2.2 at all strengths. 

[triumph_communes]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Really quick. Kyle Okposo did not flatline. He went from 1.6pts/60 to 2.2 at all strengths. 

Yes you are correct. He got better after all the Covid crap finally gave him the break he needed day 1 of season and became decent again. The comment meant to say I don’t foresee a regression. 

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Well, my lineups came from dailyfaceoff.com, so your beef is with them, not me.

As for Sanderson, he could be a difference-maker next season, or he could have the impact more typical of a rookie offensive defenseman who has never played in the NHL and who is coming off of 2 semi-serious injuries (hand surgery and shoulder).  I don't think it's prudent to pencil him in as a Cale Makar clone right out of the gate.

 

I agree that the 2nd bolded is a major question, and I too have been skeptical of how meaningful their garbage-time performance was.  However, I think they absolutely were a much better team in the last 1/3 of the season than in the 1st 2/3, perhaps mostly because of health but also because of maturity, moving on from Eichel, etc.  The playoff-level record they put up in that last 1/3 was likely overstated due to not getting their opponents' A games most nights, but they were still greatly improved IMHO.

If the team we saw in the last 1/3 of the season was the real Sabres (a huge if, to be sure), then I don't think the 1st bolded in your post above is a correct assumption, because I think that Sabres team was materially better than the Senators and the Red Wings.  The other 2 teams narrowed that gap with their offseason additions, but the Sabres also made some potentially important additions (starting G, starting, physical D, 2 scoring Fs).  If the Sabres' additions deliver -- also a huge if -- then I think they will be able to maintain their separation from Ottawa and Detroit.

One semi-related point on this:  I think Ottawa's franchise is likely to benefit from its new ownership and Detroit's is likely to benefit from its new leadership in Stevie Y.  So although I think the Sabres are likely to be better than those 2 teams this year, over the long term, I doubt those 2 will remain doormats.

Yes, the daughters in Ottawa (I think they are the owners if I heard right) are definitely willing to spend money again and they want to win now. They feel many of the kids (like Sanderson) are ready and their additions were timed for that. 

To the end of the season or last 1/3 I don't disagree that we were better, but it was a low bar. I called it the Tuch factor last year and I still truly believe he helped change the locker room and the on ice performance. That top line certainly came together from an offensive point of view. What makes me skeptical about it though was the 5-0 losses to Boston and Tampa where both teams schooled us and made us look like children. Those teams wanted points at that time and had their way with us easily. Made me see some gaping holes in our game, holes that haven't been filled. 

We shall see. Boston's a bit of a mess and will have a depleted roster for the first half of the season at least. Toronto's goaltending is suspect. Pittsburgh and Washington are even older and nearing too old. Moving up is possible, and I think that's part of why those teams made big moves. I wish we'd done the same. Everything is on the kids improving a lot. I'm just not sure that's a realistic hope.  

[dudacek]

55 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

. What makes me skeptical about it though was the 5-0 losses to Boston and Tampa where both teams schooled us and made us look like children. Those teams wanted points at that time and had their way with us easily. Made me see some gaping holes in our game, holes that haven't been filled. 

.  

So by gaping holes do you mean the 26-9 edge the Sabres put up in shot attempts in the first period against Boston only to go down 2-0 thanks to Dustin Tokarski’s outstanding .844 sv% goaltending? 

Or did you mean the 59 per cent overall possession advantage the Sabres had while outshooting Boston 37-32 over the full game?

Or the 6 consecutive power plays the refs handed the hometown Bruins with the game still within reach at 2-0?

Those holes?

Edited July 18, 2022 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

Now you’ve done it @PerreaultForever — he’s mad at you!

I do recall looking overmatched against TB though — but they were the 2-time defending champs!  They should’ve been much better and they were.  But we’ll be better next year and they’ll be a bit worse.  

[PerreaultForever]

lol, I'm not going to get worked up over it but I also have nothing more to add. We shall see. 

I will be quite happy to be wrong. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Moving up is possible, and I think that's part of why those teams made big moves. I wish we'd done the same. Everything is on the kids improving a lot. I'm just not sure that's a realistic hope.  

You know I'm not a KA apologist, but I'm wondering what moves you wanted KA to make this off-season?  Admittedly, I wanted more "name" players instead of Lyubishkin and Comrie (although I did mention Comrie as a value move back in early May) and I wanted him to get another young veteran forward and possibly a 4th line center.  However, the forward moves weren't realistic given the development of JJP and Quinn plus the in locker room leadership of Girgensons and KO.  Remember entering the off-season he had 13 forwards and 6 D under contract or control.  So I ask again other than goaltender, where was he feasibly supposed to be aggressive without giving up on a prospect like Krebs or Mittelstadt? Or should be have traded VO, who was one of our best players down the stretch last year, for what?   

Edited July 19, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[PerreaultForever]

12 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You know I'm not a KA apologist, but I'm wondering what moves you wanted KA to make this off-season?  Admittedly, I wanted more "name" players instead of Lyubishkin and Comrie (although I did mention Comrie as a value move back in early May) and I wanted him to get another young veteran forward and possibly a 4th line center.  However, the forward moves weren't realistic given the development of JJP and Quinn plus the in locker room leadership of Girgensons and KO.  Remember entering the off-season he had 13 forwards and 6 D under contract or control.  So I ask again other than goaltender, where was he feasibly supposed to be aggressive without giving up on a prospect like Krebs or Mittelstadt? Or should be have traded VO, who was one of our best players down the stretch last year, for what?   

The bolded parts are things I'm not in full agreement on. Everyone is JJ and Quinn, JJ and Quinn, they're just going to slot them in there and watch them compete for the Calder. Neither imo is proven NHL ready. As for Girgs and KO, I get the sentimentality, but imo neither is here a year from now. Or if they are they're basically irrelevant and we will still be crap. I'm not "giving up" on Mitts and Krebs but neither has shown me they are solid NHL players either. I think they all need to brought in slowly, working their way up, possibly up and down from Rochester, and not just thrown to the wolves in a sink or swim way. They all need time and development like Thompson did and so in the interim you need to balance the roster with solid veteran players.

I can't go through every possible move, there were far too many options, either free agents like Burakovsky (just an example which someone can dump on and show some stat how he's not good at whatever and so on, so emphasis on just an example) or taking JVR for a year for that Philly 2024 pick rather than demanding their 2023 (another example) or trading for Talbot or another good goalie, or any other number of possibles as we have a ton of cap room.

You know really, I just want to start winning NOW. I'm so sick and tired of waiting on this team and being disappointed. I am well aware Rick is retired, but I just want to feel the way I felt at these moments again and I want it now not years from now. Just watch and remember, I have nothing more to add to this thread.

 

Edited July 19, 2022 by PerreaultForever

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

You know really, I just want to start winning NOW. I'm so sick and tired of waiting on this team and being disappointed. I am well aware Rick is retired, but I just want to feel the way I felt at these moments again and I want it now not years from now. Just watch and remember, I have nothing more to add to this thread.

I get it.  I want to win now as well. I've been yelling about fixing the goaltending for 3 years.  In fact, I believe this team would have been in playoff contention last season had KA simply re-signed Ullmark or went out an actually got a real goaltender.  Just think with a 40 year old retired goaltender who put up a 3.12 gaa the team went 17-12-2 or a 95 pt clip.  Now imagine how things would have gone with real goaltending.   I also wanted a top flight upgrade for Pysyk instead of a Toronto cast-off and as much as I like Comrie's potential, I'd much rather have a proven starting goaltender.  KA's handling of the goaltending as the Sabres GM is malpractice.

I fully believe that had TM keep our picks and prospects we'd already be a playoff team.  Instead he rushed the rebuild and bam we are still wondering the desert.  

Outside the goaltending, I'm onboard with most of KA's development program.  I think our forwards are a really good group ready to take the next step and if they do you'll see KA invest in the group as he replaces Girgensons and probably KO after this season.  I also like 4/6 of the young D and see a bright future there as well.  I also disagree about simply adding vets.  Good franchises integrate the kids as the are ready.  KA is right to give them a shot, but has insurance in Hinostroza and arguably Bjork if they fail.  I would have sent Bjork packing, and I think if he has to play more than a couple of games here and there KA will look elsewhere for help.  

 

 

[Huckleberry]

Also Copp barely had better numbers than our Latvian locomotive prior to last season.  Copp is a good bottom 6 forward , but the wings pensil him in as a 2C.

Copp 483 82 120 202   <-- 53 point 'breakout' season last year is the big difference between these two.
Zemgus  545 71 85 156

 

[Curt]

36 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Also Copp barely had better numbers than our Latvian locomotive prior to last season.  Copp is a good bottom 6 forward , but the wings pensil him in as a 2C.

Copp 483 82 120 202   <-- 53 point 'breakout' season last year is the big difference between these two.
Zemgus  545 71 85 156

 

I was not a fan of Detroit’s offseason.

Copp is a good player, though he could end up a bit overpaid if his offense dips back to what it was a couple years ago.

Husso, I’m not sold on for that $ and term.  If you look at his career stats, last season looks more like a fluke than anything else.

Chairot I don’t think is that good, not for that contract.  Is he actually better than Lyubushkin???

The reason they felt like they needed to go for it like that is because of fear that Larkin, Bertuzzi, and/or Vrana, might walk as UFAs 1 or 2 years from now if they don’t show progress.  MPO

[Huckleberry]

Was thinking pretty much the same Chiarot had some really rough seasons in Montreal,  He was on the 3rd pair on a heavy stacked Jets team.
He is nothing more than a 3rd pairing Defenseman.

Only signing I really liked in Detriot was Kubalik.   Perron Is already 34 but at least only 2 a year deal but can still put 50 points.  

 

[bob_sauve28]