Sabres vs Red Wings vs Sens (vs CBJ) - Who is a better team right now?

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

If all of that (and the others) is true, (and it isn't), then why do the oddsmakers have us in 7th place in the division? I guess they are pessimists lacking objectivity too.

Who gives a *****? Like seriously why should I care? Oddsmakers are there to make money not predict winners.

[LGR4GM]

@PerreaultForever walk us through the Senators and Red Wings additions, one by one. For each one show us the comparable player on the Sabres. You keep claiming others are wrong with no interest in explaining further, here's your chance. I will even list all the additions for you. Again, adding players does not equal improvement just because you added guys in UFA or via trades at the draft.

Detroit: Andrew Copp, David Perron, Ben Chariot, Dominik Kubalik, Olli Matta, Mark Pysyk, Ville Husso.

Ottawa: Alex Debrincat, Claude Giroux, Cam Talbot, Jacob Larsson.

Here is who each team added. Keeping in mind they both lost players to make this additions in UFA but compare them to Buffalo.

Buffalo: Owen Power, Jack Quinn, John-Jason Peterka, Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs, Illya Lyubushkin, Eric Comrie (Buffalo adds since last season started).

[dudacek]

I think the bottom 4 in the division should be objectively better and the top 4 objectively worse.

Whether that will be enough to alter the standings seems unlikely given the gap, but at least we now have reason to wonder.

You know some moves will backfire and some leaps will come out of nowhere. That’s always the case.

[Doohicksie]

He has his favorite teams but he's reasonably nonpartial.

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

@PerreaultForever walk us through the Senators and Red Wings additions, one by one. For each one show us the comparable player on the Sabres. You keep claiming others are wrong with no interest in explaining further, here's your chance. I will even list all the additions for you. Again, adding players does not equal improvement just because you added guys in UFA or via trades at the draft.

Detroit: Andrew Copp, David Perron, Ben Chariot, Dominik Kubalik, Olli Matta, Mark Pysyk, Ville Husso.

Ottawa: Alex Debrincat, Claude Giroux, Cam Talbot, Jacob Larsson.

Here is who each team added. Keeping in mind they both lost players to make this additions in UFA but compare them to Buffalo.

Buffalo: Owen Power, Jack Quinn, John-Jason Peterka, Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs, Illya Lyubushkin, Eric Comrie (Buffalo adds since last season started).

There is no point to this because your criteria isn't consistent. Buffalo actually added Lyubushkin and Comrie and that's it. 

The comparison is really Copp/Perron/Husso  vs. Debrincat/Giroux/Talbot vs. Lyubushkin/Comrie which ranks Ottawa - Detroit-Buffalo in that order. 

Tuch is already a Sabre and there was a subtraction. At this point we traded Tuch for Eichel. Until Krebs (if) delivers and the picks play in the NHL it's a one for one trade. 

The main point however that makes it pointless to argue is you simply can't list off our top prospects as additions and then not list off the top prospects for the other teams. I'm not as familiar with Detroit, but Ottawa has numerous prospects ready just like us. Sanderson, Greig and Pinto for example. You can argue ours might be better, and maybe they are, but those 3 are all likely in the NHL this year and although Power should be a great player in time, Sanderson is probably ahead of him in terms of development at this time. Argue that if you want to, but even if Power is better, it doesn't change the imbalance. 

[nfreeman]

@PerreaultForever— But if the question is which team is better right now, doesn’t it make sense to focus on the expected opening night rosters, and not just on the summer additions?

if the last 2 months of the Sabres’ season weren’t a garbage-time mirage, and if either Comrie or UPL is up to the job, I think the Sabres are the best of the 3.  But those are 2 large ifs.  

[Weave]

5 pages because I stated in another thread that Ott, NJ, and Det will be harder to beat this season.  WTF.

[Doohicksie]

2 minutes ago, Weave said:

5 pages because I stated in another thread that Ott, NJ, and Det will be harder to beat this season.  WTF.

That's the off season for ya.

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 7/17/2022 at 2:51 PM, PerreaultForever said:

The comparison is really Copp/Perron/Husso  vs. Debrincat/Giroux/Talbot vs. Lyubushkin/Comrie which ranks Ottawa - Detroit-Buffalo in that order. 

This isn't the comparison because it doesn't look at who they replaced, aka how many jobs did the GM need to fill.

Stevie Y had 6 open roster spots to fill.  3F, 2D and a G.  Out were Fabbri, Gagner and Vrana (and their 43 goals), plus M Staal, DeKeyser and Greiss.  In came Perron, Copp, Kubalik as the forward replacements. Chariot and Maatta in on D and Husso in net.  Det got younger for the most part and better at forward and in goal.  The defense is still suspect.  Their differential last year  was -82.  Even if they cut that in half with the improved offense they still aren't close to a playoff team.

The Sabres needed to replace only 4 players none of which were major contributors like those replaced in Det.  Out are JAGS Eakin and Hayden up front (and their 6 goals), Pysyk on defense and Tokarski in net.  They are being replaced by top rookie JJP and Quinn upfront, top 4 D Lyubushkin and a goalie with actually potential in Comrie.  Like Det we are seriously improved.  You have to remember that KA entered the off-season with 12 forwards under contract plus RFA VO and 5 D under contract plus RFA Bryson.  Other than goaltending he really didn't have to do anything to field a team (other than get to the cap floor)  

The Sabres differential was -58 last season.  I think between Power, JJP, Quinn and full seasons from Tuch, Mitts and Krebs, we are about 40 goals improved.  Now the question is Comrie and Lyubishkin enough to improve our goals against by 20 or more goals?

Ottawa moved on from 8 players.  At forward White, Brown, Ennis and Tierney weren't re-signed, or were traded or bought out (27 goals).  On Defense Hamonic and Del Zotto are gone and in goal Gustavsson and Murray were traded.  They have been replaced by DeBrincat and Giroux upfront, only rookie Sanderson on D and Talbot in goalie.  The are also much improved.  Behind Forsberg's goaltending they were only -39 last season.  Their question is can they improve their offense behind Girous and DeBrincat to get to a positive differential.  Like us they maybe be close.

If I had to guess Buffalo and Ott are nearly even as teams heading into next season.  Det is still a step behind unless Husso stands on his head.

 

Edited July 20, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

17 minutes ago, Weave said:

5 pages because I stated in another thread that Ott, NJ, and Det will be harder to beat this season.  WTF.

Welcome to July on a Sabres forum.  Lol

[PerreaultForever]

42 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

@PerreaultForever— But if the question is which team is better right now, doesn’t it make sense to focus on the expected opening night rosters, and not just on the summer additions?

if the last 2 months of the Sabres’ season weren’t a garbage-time mirage, and if either Comrie or UPL is up to the job, I think the Sabres are the best of the 3.  But those are 2 large ifs.  

I don't really understand what you mean by the first sentence. The main players they picked up in free agency all will be in their opening night rosters. 

I personally don't put much stock in late season win streaks by losing teams. I've seen this many times over the years (as I'm sure you have) and it rarely means anything for the next season. I have never felt we played as good in that stretch as some people think we did. 

The goalie thing is the biggest IF. They picked up goalies who SHOULD be up to the task. We have goalies who MIGHT be up to the task. It's a huge IF. 

[Curt]

2 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I don't really understand what you mean by the first sentence. The main players they picked up in free agency all will be in their opening night rosters. 

I personally don't put much stock in late season win streaks by losing teams. I've seen this many times over the years (as I'm sure you have) and it rarely means anything for the next season. I have never felt we played as good in that stretch as some people think we did. 

The goalie thing is the biggest IF. They picked up goalies who SHOULD be up to the task. We have goalies who MIGHT be up to the task. It's a huge IF. 

Just curious, do you see Husso much more of a sure thing than Comrie?  If yes, why?

Personally, I don’t see much difference between the two.  Certainly not enough to justify the difference in financial commitment.  I know that Husso played more games, but ~40 games of track record vs ~20 games of track record doesn’t seem significant.

[PerreaultForever]

18 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This isn't the comparison because it doesn't look at who they replaced, aka how many jobs did the GM need to fill.

Stevie Y had 6 open roster spots to fill.  3F, 2D and a G.  Out were Fabbri, Gagner and Vrana (and their 43 goals), plus M Staal, DeKeyser and Greiss.  In came Perron, Copp, Kubalik as the forward replacements. Chariot and Maatta in on D and Husso in net.  Det got younger for the most part and better at forward and in goal.  The defense is still suspect.  Their differential last year  was -82.  Even if they cut that in half with the improved offense they still aren't close to a playoff team.

The Sabres needed to replace only 4 players none of which were major contributors like those replaced in Det.  Out are JAGS Eakin and Hayden up front (and their 6 goals), Pysyk on defense and Tokarski in net.  They are being replaced by top rookie JJP and Quinn upfront, top 4 D Lyubushkin and a goalie with actually potential in Comrie.  Like Det we are seriously improved.  You have to remember that KA entered the off-season with 12 forwards under contract plus RFA VO and 5 D under contract plus RFA Bryson.  Other than goaltending he really didn't have to do anything to field a team (other than get to the cap floor)  

The Sabres differential was -58 last season.  I think between Power, JJP, Quinn and full seasons from Tuch, Mitts and Krebs, we are about 40 goals improved.  Now the question is Comrie and Lyubishkin enough to improve our goals against by 20 or more goals?

Ottawa moved on from 8 players.  At forward White, Brown, Ennis and Tierney weren't re-signed or bought out (27 goals).  On Defense Hamonic and Del Zotto are gone and in goal Gustavsson and Murray were traded.  They have been replaced by DeBrincat and Giroux upfront, only rookie Sanderson on D and Talbot in goalie.  The are also much improved.  Behind Forsberg's goaltending they were only -39 last season.  Their question is can they improve their offense behind Girous and DeBrincat to get to a positive differential.  Like us they maybe be close.

If I had to guess Buffalo and Ott are nearly even as teams heading into next season.  Det is still a step behind unless Husso stands on his head.

 

See the bold is one of the key things where I disagree with people. There is a HUGE ASSUMPTION that Quinn and Peterka will just slot in and leave everyone in awe. There is simply no guarantee that either will impact in any meaningful way (yet) and who knows if ever. Look at Mitts and Cozens. This may be their year (maybe) but to this point after several seasons neither is a top impact player (yet). Quinn and Peterka are going to take time as well. By not signing a few veteran players to fill the gaps now, it's all on the kids and while they may be alright, they also might not be ready and so I suspect we will be waiting yet another year. 

We will see if Ottawa is as good as I think they might be now. All we can do right now is speculate. and disagree 🙂

For the record, while I have no problem with Lyubishkin as an addition and Pysyk upgrade, I'm not sure he's all that, and while he might gel with our style, he's really just an average player. Comrie doesn't impress me at all, but it's possible he plays better than he has in the past. Goaltending is a clear negative for us in comparison to the competition unless UPL amazes. Big if. 

[Huckleberry]

Detroit: Andrew Copp, David Perron, Ben Chariot, Dominik Kubalik, Olli Matta, Mark Pysyk, Ville Husso.

On other boards I skim over, not a member there though,  buffalo fans are  complaining we never tried for Copp, but he is a red wings fan, was always going there.
Chariot didn't he fall off last couple of seasons ? Maatta is slow as hell, Husso is a question mark.   

Copp / Perron / Kubalik should strengthen their middle six quite a bit.  

Ottawa: Alex Debrincat, Claude Giroux, Cam Talbot, Jacob Larsson.

I like Debrincat, but will he score 40 without kane ?   Giroux and Talbot are on the wrong side of 30 , and Larsson I never liked on D.

These teams might be better for 1 year, but after that the sabres will be much better in my mind.

[nfreeman]

16 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I don't really understand what you mean by the first sentence. The main players they picked up in free agency all will be in their opening night rosters. 

I personally don't put much stock in late season win streaks by losing teams. I've seen this many times over the years (as I'm sure you have) and it rarely means anything for the next season. I have never felt we played as good in that stretch as some people think we did. 

The goalie thing is the biggest IF. They picked up goalies who SHOULD be up to the task. We have goalies who MIGHT be up to the task. It's a huge IF. 

I just meant that the thread is about which of the 3 teams is the best team right now -- and if that is the question, then we need to consider the teams' entire rosters, not just the offseason additions.  You are of course correct that the offseason additions will be on the opening night rosters, but your posts in this thread seem to focus solely on the offseason additions, and not on the entire rosters.

 

[Buffalonill]

Red Wings ,Sens , CBJ have passed buffalo this year 

[PerreaultForever]

8 minutes ago, Curt said:

Just curious, do you see Husso much more of a sure thing than Comrie?  If yes, why?

Personally, I don’t see much difference between the two.  Certainly not enough to justify the difference in financial commitment.  I know that Husso played more games, but ~40 games of track record vs ~20 games of track record doesn’t seem significant.

I do think Husso is better. Why? That's a tough question. I guess it's mostly because I've seen him play and his development seems to put him at what he is, a starting goalie, and Comrie was just a journeyman backup. Husso outplayed Binnington for most of the year. It's not a sure thing, Husso isn't Hasek by any stretch but Comrie is really just a low priced roll of the dice. He's a placeholder if UPL doesn't work out or Anderson gets injured again (which is likely). 

let me rephrase it this way. If you were not a fan and looked in on it how would you rank the goaltending? I'd go 1. Ottawa 2. Detroit 3. Buffalo.  

[PerreaultForever]

3 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I just meant that the thread is about which of the 3 teams is the best team right now -- and if that is the question, then we need to consider the teams' entire rosters, not just the offseason additions.  You are of course correct that the offseason additions will be on the opening night rosters, but your posts in this thread seem to focus solely on the offseason additions, and not on the entire rosters.

 

Okay fair enough, but then that's exactly my point. DeBrincat, Giroux, Talbot and so forth are known entities. You can argue that DeBrincat might not have Kane, but since he has Giroux, I'm not sure there's a valid case. We are reliant on AHL players stepping in and Krebs type players stepping up. To be "right now" you have to talk Hinostroza not Quinn. If we get new young players so do they. They have several coming up too. But in terms of proven known players, they are better. 

[LGR4GM]

I think Ottawa could be better talent wise than Buffalo. I don't see it in Detroit. Also, how will a new coach impact Detroit. There's unknowns everywhere including Buffalo. 

But as others have said, we have to compare full rosters as opposed to what perrault is doing which is,  they made moves we didn't so they are better. We once signed Hall, how'd that go?

Sanderson is good but why would he be better than Power? They're only 5 months apart and both parties played 2 ncaa years. Should be interesting to watch both. 

[Doohicksie]

50 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I personally don't put much stock in late season win streaks by losing teams. I've seen this many times over the years (as I'm sure you have) and it rarely means anything for the next season.

In general this is true.  But it's also true that "losing teams" have a lot of turnover.  As @GASabresIUFAN points out, there is not much turnover on the Sabres other than at goalie, the position they most needed help at.  Much of the change the Sabres went through happened during the season last year and they've already integrated the new players into the system and the end of last season is a pretty good gauge of what to expect this season.

Ottawa and Detroit still have to figure out how to deploy the new assets, who plays well with whom and all that.  Granato has that sorted out for the most part; he just has to tinker around a bit with his D pairings a bit.

Also, Detroit will be playing under a new coach and a whole new system.  They may end up being hot trash for the first 15-20 games depending how LaLonde's system meshes with Blashill's.

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

5 pages because I stated in another thread that Ott, NJ, and Det will be harder to beat this season.  WTF.

Thank you! We need things to discuss.

[DarthEbriate]

The Sens got better-than-average goaltending (relative to league) from Forsberg last season. They kept him and added Talbot, then removed Gustavsson and Murray. The Sens goaltending should be very solid. Some good additions up front and the team that was looking feisty in the Canada division two years back should be better. If Dell doesn't lambaste Batherson, the Sens might've been better than the Sabres last year. Adding DeBrincat is a plus.

Detroit had goaltending as bad as Buffalo's last season. For each team, Husso and Comrie to the rescue. If both newcomer goalies play to potential, then both teams will vastly improve. Nothing impacts a team like going from .915 to .895 (as teams: Detroit .897 and Buffalo .899 last season), or vice versa in goal.

I see the division condensing into a glorious, fractious, contentious mess. It's going to be fun and it's going to last until March and maybe even April 2023. Get excited, because at least 1 of the 4 from last year won't make the playoffs. It's just a matter of which Atlantic (or Metro) team jumps in and spoils the party. The best thing is... in 2024... Buffalo will be there no matter what.

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

Red Wings ,Sens , CBJ have passed buffalo this year 

Go ahead and think that.  Let's see what happens when they play the games.

[dudacek]

Ottawa is not in this conversation if Josh Norris and Drake Batherson did not suddenly emerge as top 6 players at 23.

Detroit is not in this conversation if Raymond and Seider didn’t make a dramatic impact as rookies last year.

So it would not be shocking if Casey Mittelstadt and Dylan Cozens took a step next year, nor would it be if Owen Power and Jack Quinn were good right away.

Should we count on it? Of course not.

Neither should we count on Ville Husso to be a strong starting goalie, or for David Perron to score 60 points at age 34 playing with Pius Suter.

Player for player, there are lot of similarities between the 3 teams.

It will be interesting to see which players pop and push their team up with them.

[Curt]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I do think Husso is better. Why? That's a tough question. I guess it's mostly because I've seen him play and his development seems to put him at what he is, a starting goalie, and Comrie was just a journeyman backup. Husso outplayed Binnington for most of the year. It's not a sure thing, Husso isn't Hasek by any stretch but Comrie is really just a low priced roll of the dice. He's a placeholder if UPL doesn't work out or Anderson gets injured again (which is likely). 

let me rephrase it this way. If you were not a fan and looked in on it how would you rank the goaltending? I'd go 1. Ottawa 2. Detroit 3. Buffalo.  

1. Ottawa for sure.

Detroit and Buffalo are close for me.  Both Comrie and Husso experienced NHL success for the first time last season.  Both are the same age.  Husso had a larger sample size.

If you look at each guys previous several seasons, I don’t really get the impression that you are expressing though.  I know Comrie bounced around a couple teams but it’s Comrie who was more consistently good in the AHL.  Husso seems to have alternated good and poor seasons for the past several years.  I’m not seeing a steady progression leading to him being an NHL starter.  In his 3 previous seasons, his save percentages were 0.893, 0.909, and 0.871.  Those range from below average to putrid, and most of that was in the AHL.  Im not seeing the development that you are talking about and I have very little faith that Husso is even an average starting goalie.  Comrie outperformed him, but didn’t play nearly as much.  I’m not sure if either of them are more than a one year fluke.