Sabres Sign Victor Olofsson 2 Years 4.75 million AAV

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Me too. Really like him, was hoping for a value contract in a couple years on a team that was winning.

This likely locks him up for a couple years of value on a team in a holding pattern, before he’s due for a bigger deal and we have to move him. I see this as putting yet more faith in the prospects 

Agree with this, except for the term "holding pattern" because it implies "not trying to get better."

The Sabres are trying to get better: focusing on developing players rather than adding players is not a holding pattern.

Last year they developed Thompson and Dahlin into core players and introduced Krebs, Samuelsson and Asplund as full-time players.

This year they hope to develop Cozens and Mittelstadt into core players and introduce Power, Peterka and Quinn as full-time players.

What this signing says to me is that they have yet to identify Olofsson as a core player.

 

[mjd1001]

20 minutes ago, GrassValleyGreg said:

Agree with everything you said. I just want to emphasize the bigger difference is Olofsson is not close to Reinhart. But yeah, fine with this and the term sets him up to be moved at a deadline.

I think you are only looking to move him at the deadline IF Mitts takes that long-awaited big step AND Quinn and/or Peterka look like they are legit NHL scorers.   And if those things happen you might want to move Olofsson in that case.

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, GrassValleyGreg said:

 

I understand no longer wanting to be sellers at the deadline, but there is a strong likelihood we will be again this year. If not, great, we have a somewhat affordable contract for just another year. If we are, then Vic is probably are biggest realistic trade asset and this contract helps. 

I'm also just not very high on Vic and think we have multiple players very close who will more than fill his role. But for vibes, continuity, and potential trade value, I'm good on the two years. 

You aren't high on Olofsson, which is perfectly fine.  What do you expect he'll bring back in return should the Sabres offer him this year?  A 2nd?  Other?

They already have 3 2nd rounders in '23 and have added ~21 young players to the pipeline (not including Krebs & Levi) in the last 2 years (at least 8 of which have to be legit to be in the NHL prospects.  Does a 4th 2nd rounder appreciably bring any value in February/March?  

(Apologies if the myriad questions seem to be attacking; that is not the intent.)

[Thorner]

7 minutes ago, GrassValleyGreg said:

 

I understand no longer wanting to be sellers at the deadline, but there is a strong likelihood we will be again this year. If not, great, we have a somewhat affordable contract for just another year. If we are, then Vic is probably are biggest realistic trade asset and this contract helps. 

I'm also just not very high on Vic and think we have multiple players very close who will more than fill his role. But for vibes, continuity, and potential trade value, I'm good on the two years. 

I long for the days we sign a deal that we think will be good value for US in the near future, rather than a deal that we see as good for ANOTHER team, in said near future. 

The contract basically has built in “in case we are bad” insurance, but little “this could be good when WE are good” backing. 

Edited July 13, 2022 by Thorny

[DarthEbriate]

Olofsson's injury this year definitely kept this from being a $5.5+ contract. It's the perfect term for the kids, not necessarily for VO. However, if Quinn can't hack it at the NHL level or continues to miss substantial time with injuries, this is a bridge to keeping Olofsson as the team continues to improve. Pretty solid deal all around.

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Agree with this, except for the term "holding pattern" because it implies "not trying to get better."

The Sabres are trying to get better: focusing on developing players rather than adding players is not a holding pattern.

Last year they developed Thompson and Dahlin into core players and introduced Krebs, Samuelsson and Asplund as full-time players.

This year they hope to develop Cozens and Mittelstadt into core players and introduce Power, Peterka and Quinn as full-time players.

What this signing says to me is that they have yet to identify Olofsson as a core player.

 

My definition of holding pattern is that they aren’t really serious about looking for outside improvement. Of course they want improvement, but at this time seem only willing for it to come from the internal 

Also, you are doing the John thing, I know about those players lol 

Edited July 13, 2022 by Thorny

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

My definition of holding pattern is that they aren’t really serious about looking for outside improvement. Of course they want improvement, but at this time seem only willing for it to come from the internal 

Why do we care where it comes from?

We just care that it happens.

[Thorner]

We can use any definition we want though, it’s just what *I* meant by holding pattern. Smart Sabres twitter says it’s another “evaluation year” (lol) if you prefer 

 

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Olofsson's injury this year definitely kept this from being a $5.5+ contract. It's the perfect term for the kids, not necessarily for VO. However, if Quinn can't hack it at the NHL level or continues to miss substantial time with injuries, this is a bridge to keeping Olofsson as the team continues to improve. Pretty solid deal all around.

True that the injury made it hard to zero in on a value for him.

But this contract really doesn't do the Sabres any favors.  Can't see them wanting to move him at this trade deadline and they'd better not be looking to unload anybody at the next trade deadline.  Or else Mr. Adams will have "some splainin' to do" and very likely will be at the end of his leash.

If the kids really are at the point that Olofsson is expendable, the time to be looking to trade him is 2 or 3 off-seasons from now.  The Sabres don't have his rights at that point, so he walks for nothing except maybe a token from somebody for exclusive negotiating rights with him.  And, as @Thorny points out, if he's ahead of the kids then, it'll cost them way more to keep him than it would've now.

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Why do we care where it comes from?

We just care that it happens.

I was under the impression that on this board we discussed the avenues we think might be mined for improvement and that there are often several. 

Of course it’s all with eyes on the endgame, but we aren’t looking out from that vantage point yet 

[GrassValleyGreg]

11 minutes ago, Taro T said:

You aren't high on Olofsson, which is perfectly fine.  What do you expect he'll bring back in return should the Sabres offer him this year?  A 2nd?  Other?

They already have 3 2nd rounders in '23 and have added ~21 young players to the pipeline (not including Krebs & Levi) in the last 2 years (at least 8 of which have to be legit to be in the NHL prospects.  Does a 4th 2nd rounder appreciably bring any value in February/March?  

(Apologies if the myriad questions seem to be attacking; that is not the intent.)

 

11 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I long for the days we sign a deal that we think will be good value for US in the near future, rather than a deal that we see as good for ANOTHER team, in said near future. 

The contract basically has built in “in case we are bad” insurance, but little “this could be good when WE are good” backing. 

Agree with all of these sentiments! My original comment was basically trying to say the bolded above - a secondary potential benefit for signing a well-liked goal scorer could be his value at the deadline. Like you both, I hope we aren't sellers but good to have options both ways. And Taro, yes I'll happily take another second rounder!

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

I was under the impression that on this board we discussed the avenues we think might be mined for improvement and that there are often several. 

Of course it’s all with eyes on the endgame, but we aren’t looking out from that vantage point yet 

The avenue of adding expensive, proven talent?

Agreed. Or at least we haven't seen them being successful at it.

[DarthEbriate]

10 minutes ago, Taro T said:

True that the injury made it hard to zero in on a value for him.

But this contract really doesn't do the Sabres any favors.  Can't see them wanting to move him at this trade deadline and they'd better not be looking to unload anybody at the next trade deadline.  Or else Mr. Adams will have "some splainin' to do" and very likely will be at the end of his leash.

If the kids really are at the point that Olofsson is expendable, the time to be looking to trade him is 2 or 3 off-seasons from now.  The Sabres don't have his rights at that point, so he walks for nothing except maybe a token from somebody for exclusive negotiating rights with him.  And, as @Thorny points out, if he's ahead of the kids then, it'll cost them way more to keep him than it would've now.

Yes, it's best for the up-and-comers not being blocked. Not so much for VO or the Sabres. But if the kids are good enough, then letting VO walk in 2024 isn't the worst thing. Edit: Especially if the Sabres are in the playoffs and just getting started on their influx of studs in 2024.

As to trading him: As a rental+1 year at this deadline for a playoff team desperate for scoring; 2023 draft day as a 1 year (plus possible extension); or the least value is the 2023-24 trade deadline. They all work in their own way. The driver of it all is Quinn (or other kid wingers) taking flight.

Edited July 13, 2022 by DarthEbriate

[Thorner]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The avenue of adding expensive, proven talent?

Agreed. Or at least we haven't seen them being successful at it.

Kinda getting lost here. 

I just meant they aren’t looking for much if any improvement from the outside, trades, Ufa, what have you, (say, for example, DeBrincat) preferring for the improvement to come almost exclusively from the internal. Fringe additions like Hinostroza, Lyubushkin. Comrie is sort of the 1 by default (still glad to see the move). 

Wasn’t really looking to rehash the debate about whether we should be taking a more proactive approach instead of slow and methodical, merely chose “holding pattern” to describe the workings of our current method 

Edited July 13, 2022 by Thorny

[Cheektorado]

I'm not as savvy about NHL contracts as some of you guys are but I don't see VO being moved at deadline time this year or next year.  It seems to me that he's a good player that his long-term decision with the Sabres is being pushed out 2 years to see how the young guys develop and what roles they will fill.

It seems to me with KO, ZG, VH and AB all on one-year-left contracts moving VO at the end of the year would not be effective at all looking forward to the 2023-2024 season.  In 2 years they can decide if VO is a player they want to keep or move on from.

If that is GMKA's plan what am I missing that makes it not sound?

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, Cheektorado said:

I'm not as savvy about NHL contracts as some of you guys are but I don't see VO being moved at deadline time this year or next year.  It seems to me that he's a good player that his long-term decision with the Sabres is being pushed out 2 years to see how the young guys develop and what roles they will fill.

It seems to me with KO, ZG, VH and AB all on one-year-left contracts moving VO at the end of the year would not be effective at all looking forward to the 2023-2024 season.  In 2 years they can decide if VO is a player they want to keep or move on from.

If that is GMKA's plan what am I missing that makes it not sound?

Simply that keeping him at that point is now not a decision for Adams & his bosses to make alone but rather one Olofsson will have a monstrous say in and also that if they DO want to keep him beyond that that it'll cost significantly more when $'s are much tighter to keep him beyond that than it would've been to lock him up for a few $'s more when 1/3-1/2 (depending on length of the deal between 4-6 year) of the total money would be paid in years the Sabres are no where close to the cap.  (Paying extra now to pay less later is another way of "weaponizing" cap space.)

And if Olofsson would have insisted on a full NMC to sign for 2-4 extra years, well, then nevermind.  But don't expect that to be the case.

[Cheektorado]

4 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Simply that keeping him at that point is now not a decision for Adams & his bosses to make alone but rather one Olofsson will have a monstrous say in and also that if they DO want to keep him beyond that that it'll cost significantly more when $'s are much tighter to keep him beyond that than it would've been to lock him up for a few $'s more when 1/3-1/2 (depending on length of the deal between 4-6 year) of the total money would be paid in years the Sabres are no where close to the cap.  (Paying extra now to pay less later is another way of "weaponizing" cap space.)

And if Olofsson would have insisted on a full NMC to sign for 2-4 extra years, well, then nevermind.  But don't expect that to be the case.

I see what you're saying and understand.  I'm not saying he will probably be re-signed after the 2 years but I don't see the need to move him at the deadline this year.  I see him filling a needed role for the next 2 years and then come what may.

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We are at 14 forwards right now including Quinn, JJP and Bjork.  

I just can't see Bjork on the roster this season.  Maybe if there's an injury or something, but otherwise...

Waive him.  Let him play in Roc.  If someone claims him I'm not gonna be sad.

They brought in JAGs hoping one or two worked out.  Hinostroza worked out.  The rest... bye bye.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, Doohickie said:

I just can't see Bjork on the roster this season.  Maybe if there's an injury or something, but otherwise...

Waive him.  Let him play in Roc.  If someone claims him I'm not gonna be sad.

I’ve wanted him gone since he got here.  I’d love for him to be beaten out by any of Murray, Biro, R2 or Malone.  I’d love for KA to get an 8th D and waive Bjork.  

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’ve wanted him gone since he got here.  I’d love for him to be beaten out by any of Murray, Biro, R2 or Malone.  I’d love for KA to get an 8th D and waive Bjork.  

He will.  It might be Pysyk, but he'll have an 8th NHL defenseman.  (Would guess if not Pysyk, Pilut.)

[DarthEbriate]

If VO has a good season this year, but Quinn and JJP have great ones thereby rendering VO expendable.... you could be looking at the Skinner/CAR situation. Gotta move him with one full year left on the deal for the greatest return. Find a team desperate for a sniper (VGK after Pacioretty moves in UFA; or if Stone is forced to retire to injury --- and they need someone Eichel likes to play with him); get a basic return of prospect and a 2nd,3rd,6th. And then watch (VGK) sign VO to a massive extension after he puts up 40 (with Eichel). Time, like the moves of GMs, is a circle.

[Cheektorado]

10 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

If VO has a good season this year, but Quinn and JJP have great ones thereby rendering VO expendable.... you could be looking at the Skinner/CAR situation. Gotta move him with one full year left on the deal for the greatest return. Find a team desperate for a sniper (VGK after Pacioretty moves in UFA; or if Stone is forced to retire to injury --- and they need someone Eichel likes to play with him); get a basic return of prospect and a 2nd,3rd,6th. And then watch (VGK) sign VO to a massive extension after he puts up 40 (with Eichel). Time, like the moves of GMs, is a circle.

If the young guys play great, I can agree.  

[Pimlach]

Good move and fits the glacial-like rebuild plan. 

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, DarthEbriate said:

If VO has a good season this year, but Quinn and JJP have great ones thereby rendering VO expendable.... you could be looking at the Skinner/CAR situation. Gotta move him with one full year left on the deal for the greatest return. Find a team desperate for a sniper (VGK after Pacioretty moves in UFA; or if Stone is forced to retire to injury --- and they need someone Eichel likes to play with him); get a basic return of prospect and a 2nd,3rd,6th. And then watch (VGK) sign VO to a massive extension after he puts up 40 (with Eichel). Time, like the moves of GMs, is a circle.

I hear you, but good teams need lots of good players. I don’t think we are *close* to throwing around terms like “expendable”.

There’d be a good spot for VO until, at least, it’s someone like Rosen beating him out 

[PerreaultForever]

I'm personally not sold on him being worth that but 2 years is a good plan. I suspect at that point he will be bumped out of the line up if things go according to plan.